Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

[Lobos]

Douvans been added at 25s for any eternal optimists

Oh dear.....

 

[Kevloaf]

Douvans been added at 25s for any eternal optimists

Is he still in training?

If he is, he might have a decent handicap mark...... Grand Annual 2021 :highly_amused:

 

[Ray]

Is he still in training?

If he is, he might have a decent handicap mark...... Grand Annual 2021 :highly_amused:

I thought great field would do it this year with that same thinking

 

[Lobos]

Now that Honey is not going Mares Chase I've gone in again on PTKO at 12/1 TWAR with Paddies. She's 8/1 with them to win the Mares Chase. Doh !!?? Without Honey/Benie she'd surely be favourite if she went that route which must be tempting.

 

[Craigy14]

Now that Honey is not going Mares Chase I've gone in again on PTKO at 12/1 TWAR with Paddies. She's 8/1 with them to win the Mares Chase. Doh !!?? Without Honey/Benie she'd surely be favourite if she went that route which must be tempting.

Surely the champion chase will be at the forefront of their minds?!

Twice won at Cheltenham including this years Arkle. Be madness to not go for the champion chase with all the if and buts about the horses at the top of the market imo.

 

[Lobos]

Surely the champion chase will be at the forefront of their minds?!

Twice won at Cheltenham including this years Arkle. Be madness to not go for the champion chase with all the if and buts about the horses at the top of the market imo.

Totally agree. 75% certain she ends up there imo but 12/1 TWAR, if 2 miles doesn't go to plan, the only other race for her is the Mares Chase. She's already proved herself over the extra distance and she'd be 3/1 fav without Honey/Benie if confirmed for that race. 12's is ridiculously good.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Totally agree. 75% certain she ends up there imo but 12/1 TWAR, if 2 miles doesn't go to plan, the only other race for her is the Mares Chase. She's already proved herself over the extra distance and she'd be 3/1 fav without Honey/Benie if confirmed for that race. 12's is ridiculously good.

It's 40% less than the price that is available for the Champ Chase, by far her most likely target imo. If 12s is ridiculously good, what does that make the 20/1?

 

[Craigy14]

It's 40% less than the price that is available for the Champ Chase, by far her most likely target imo. If 12s is ridiculously good, what does that make the 20/1?

That’s where I’m at Faugheen, 20/1 far better bet for, imo, the race she’s likely to end up in.

HDB isn’t scared of coming over here too so he can pick and choose really what races between Britain and Ireland he wants to go for.

 

[BigChaang]

With you on P.T.K.O , Got her in loads of Multi's now :love_heart:

 

[Lobos]

It's 40% less than the price that is available for the Champ Chase, by far her most likely target imo. If 12s is ridiculously good, what does that make the 20/1?

12/1 is to win either race, plus I think the Mares Chase may be a tad easier to win than the Champion Chase.

 

[Lobos]

£10 on PTKO to win CC at best price 20/1 profit £200. £10 on her to win Mares Chase at 10/1 profit £100. £20 on TWAR 12/1 profit £240. No brainer surely?? Sit back and light the cigar.

 

[Spectre]

Surely the way to approach her as a single is to get her in the book at 20/1 with cash out for the Queen Mum.

Henry is sure to bring her over to test the water, so if she stands the test she's a quarter those odds. If she doesn't, just cash out and back her either at her current price or on the drift for the Mares Chase or in the Any Race markets.

Either way it shouldn't be too hard to get in to a good position on her. She should be fantastic lay proposition at some point anyway, so I'd say if you're smart the only way to lose money on her is to injury.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Surely the way to approach her as a single is to get her in the book at 20/1 with cash out for the Queen Mum.

Henry is sure to bring her over to test the water, so if she stands the test she's a quarter those odds. If she doesn't, just cash out and back her either at her current price or on the drift for the Mares Chase or in the Any Race markets.

Either way it shouldn't be too hard to get in to a good position on her. She should be fantastic lay proposition at some point anyway, so I'd say if you're smart the only way to lose money on her is to injury.

I'm thinking the Schloer Chase at the November meeting, to match the timing of her Arkle Trial win at the same meeting last year.

I don't think he would send her without a prep, so maybe something in Ireland in October beforehand.

 

[Spectre]

Yes agreed. I think the Schloer will be her race and then they'll set her targets after that.

 

[somer1]

With the news that Darver Star is going chasing took the 16/1 any race.

 

[Willdunn99]

I could see this debate raging on, but for me if I take 12/1 any race and she wins the Champion Chase I’m still going to be happy with a 12/1 winner on the day. I’m unlikely to be kicking myself for not taking 20/1 8 months earlier.

If I take the 20/1 champion chase and she goes and Wins the mares Chase I’d be absolutely gutted. In fact if you backed her for the champion chase and she’s confirmed runner for the mares Chase on the day or earlier you’d have to take the lose and back her again. As you couldn’t not back her here thinking she could win the champion chase, forcing you to weigh in heavy at lower odds.

I think she’s unlikely to drift out further then the current 12/1 for the mares Chase, given honeysuckle needs to be taken out the market and once they notice the mistake with any race price. She’d have to perform very badly to be pushed out that far in my opinion, and by that point you’ve also lost out on the cash out for the champion chase.

I know there different owners but also I think the honey monster staying over hurdles must also come into the equation for me, the temptation to consider the easiest race is always there for trainer and owners. If Honey was chasing I’m sure Henry would have made them avoid each other.

I’ve taken the any race price as I could do without the headache to be honest!

 

[Kautostar]

I tend to agree TWAR is the way to go here. HDB trains notebook and a plus tard who could also run in the champion chase albeit for different owners. PTKO would be odds on to run in the champion chase of the two but I think he will bring her over for a tingle creek type race to trial where to go from there.

 

[Lobos]

I could see this debate raging on, but for me if I take 12/1 any race and she wins the Champion Chase I’m still going to be happy with a 12/1 winner on the day. I’m unlikely to be kicking myself for not taking 20/1 8 months earlier.

If I take the 20/1 champion chase and she goes and Wins the mares Chase I’d be absolutely gutted. In fact if you backed her for the champion chase and she’s confirmed runner for the mares Chase on the day or earlier you’d have to take the lose and back her again. As you couldn’t not back her here thinking she could win the champion chase, forcing you to weigh in heavy at lower odds.

I think she’s unlikely to drift out further then the current 12/1 for the mares Chase, given honeysuckle needs to be taken out the market and once they notice the mistake with any race price. She’d have to perform very badly to be pushed out that far in my opinion, and by that point you’ve also lost out on the cash out for the champion chase.

I know there different owners but also I think the honey monster staying over hurdles must also come into the equation for me, the temptation to consider the easiest race is always there for trainer and owners. If Honey was chasing I’m sure Henry would have made them avoid each other.

I’ve taken the any race price as I could do without the headache to be honest!

100% my thoughts

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Getting the wrong race on a winner is absolutely gutting.
TWAR a good option.:encouragement:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I could see this debate raging on, but for me if I take 12/1 any race and she wins the Champion Chase I’m still going to be happy with a 12/1 winner on the day. I’m unlikely to be kicking myself for not taking 20/1 8 months earlier.

That's where we differ on this, I would 100% be kicking myself for letting the 20/1 go.

Would PTKO have to carry a penalty if she ran in the Mares Chase?