Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

[Lobos]

would need to run over 2 mile 7+ and finish in the top 4 but would be if he did.

Think we've dropped on one here. Has the look of a Ravenhill to me and not unlike the profile of Rathvinden who was on the go all summer before winning the 4 miler. Backed Rathvinden at about this time of year at 33/1 so happy to have 20/1 Galvin.

 

[archie]

Davy Russell said: "it wasn't much of a race but it was nice to get him out and was ideal for him.

"He is versatile enough ground-wise and if he was to be competitive in a Galway Plate he'd have to reproduce his career best form."

Galway Plate entries 15/7. Handicap calculated 20/7.

He couldn't win this year off 142 but, based on the horses behind him, his current rating of 148 is about right. It's a great shame that Punchestown was off because you'd have thought that he'd have gone for the valuable novice handicap and, potentially, backed up that rating.

For the reasons previously given, they are absolutely not looking at Cheltenham yet.

 

[Lobos]

Davy Russell said: "it wasn't much of a race but it was nice to get him out and was ideal for him.

"He is versatile enough ground-wise and if he was to be competitive in a Galway Plate he'd have to reproduce his career best form."

Galway Plate entries 15/7. Handicap calculated 20/7.

He couldn't win this year off 142 but, based on the horses behind him, his current rating of 148 is about right. It's a great shame that Punchestown was off because you'd have thought that he'd have gone for the valuable novice handicap and, potentially, backed up that rating.

For the reasons previously given, they are absolutely not looking at Cheltenham yet.

Rathvinden won at Galway.....

 

[Kevloaf]

Think we've dropped on one here. Has the look of a Ravenhill to me and not unlike the profile of Rathvinden who was on the go all summer before winning the 4 miler. Backed Rathvinden at about this time of year at 33/1 so happy to have 20/1 Galvin.

I have to say I'm so surprised at the urgency to get him backed!

20/1 for a horse that placed in a handicap.



If he has any hope of winning at the festival, you'd want him to be winning the Galway Plate, or going pretty damn close to winning it. Break your rule and have a bet on his actual target?



I just can't understand why 20/1 would be value for any race at Cheltenham now, I don't get it at all chaps

 

[Lobos]

I have to say I'm so surprised at the urgency to get him backed!

20/1 for a horse that placed in a handicap.



If he has any hope of winning at the festival, you'd want him to be winning the Galway Plate, or going pretty damn close to winning it. Break your rule and have a bet on his actual target?



I just can't understand why 20/1 would be value for any race at Cheltenham now, I don't get it at all chaps

Someone at Sky thinks 20/1 is value lol ! If he turns up at Cheltenham for a handicap or the NHC he'll not be 20's and if he keeps winning through the summer like Rathvinden he deffo won't be. Happy to have him in the bag. Don't have to worry about him now. Keep it simple is my motto.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

He has so many options to him. I definitely see the appeal. Even more so if he went to the NHC, he would get a top jockey being at Gordon's (potentially Codd) and he would be close to the highest rated in the race and they always go close. If he hoses up in the Galway plate he wont be 20/1 TWAR so I do understand the logic of getting on now.

 

[Lobos]

Thinking about it, didn't Ravenhill run in Galway Plate ??

 

[Lobos]

He has so many options to him. I definitely see the appeal. Even more so if he went to the NHC, he would get a top jockey being at Gordon's (potentially Codd) and he would be close to the highest rated in the race and they always go close. If he hoses up in the Galway plate he wont be 20/1 TWAR so I do understand the logic of getting on now.

Absolutely. Top rated in NHC have a seriously good record. Long way to go to March but it's certainly an option for him even this far out.

 

[Kevloaf]

Someone at Sky thinks 20/1 is value lol ! If he turns up at Cheltenham for a handicap or the NHC he'll not be 20's and if he keeps winning through the summer like Rathvinden he deffo won't be. Happy to have him in the bag. Don't have to worry about him now. Keep it simple is my motto.

Keeping it simple would be backing him for the race he's being aimed at.

He has so many options to him. I definitely see the appeal. Even more so if he went to the NHC, he would get a top jockey being at Gordon's (potentially Codd) and he would be close to the highest rated in the race and they always go close. If he hoses up in the Galway plate he wont be 20/1 TWAR so I do understand the logic of getting on now.

The fact he has so many options creates a but of a false attraction though. He can only run in one race. He doesn't have an AMAZING profile by any stretch!!!

How many horses that came 2nd in the Novice Handicap Chase have ever gone on to do anything?!

None in the last 10 years have won at any following festivals, I think Bourvreuil might have placed after it? (He definitely did....)

It's definitely not the first place you need to be looking to find future festival winners anyway!




Lads, you're getting excited about a 20/1 shot that is not even a thought in the mind of the trainer yet. There is absolutely nothing but guesswork, so whilst I agree he would go off shorter than 20/1, the desire to get on in July for it is BANANAS.

Tiger Roll was available at 25/1 in Feb, so was Ravenhill when we found out on here that was the plan for him!


Jumping the gun tremendously in my opinion.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

I completely agree it is an unconventional route and not one I would normally be looking at but he is still a novice and he is still completely unexposed. How many of the placed horses were still novices the next year?

 

[Lobos]

Keeping it simple would be backing him for the race he's being aimed at.



The fact he has so many options creates a but of a false attraction though. He can only run in one race. He doesn't have an AMAZING profile by any stretch!!!

How many horses that came 2nd in the Novice Handicap Chase have ever gone on to do anything?!

None in the last 10 years have won at any following festivals, I think Bourvreuil might have placed after it? (He definitely did....)

It's definitely not the first place you need to be looking to find future festival winners anyway!




Lads, you're getting excited about a 20/1 shot that is not even a thought in the mind of the trainer yet. There is absolutely nothing but guesswork, so whilst I agree he would go off shorter than 20/1, the desire to get on in July for it is BANANAS.

Tiger Roll was available at 25/1 in Feb, so was Ravenhill when we found out on here that was the plan for him!


Jumping the gun tremendously in my opinion.

TWAR is keeping it simple in my book. Done him, don't care which race he turns up in, happy that if he runs at next year's Fez he won't Be 20/1. Same profile as Ravenhill and Rathvinden so NHC does make sense to me. Got him in the bag so can move on now. Don't want to wait for connections to give any hints on where he may end up before I back him . 99% of punting is guesswork for someone like me but I don't do to bad .

 

[Kevloaf]

I completely agree it is an unconventional route and not one I would normally be looking at but he is still a novice and he is still completely unexposed. How many of the placed horses were still novices the next year?

Quantativeeasing - went on to run at 25/1 in the JLT
White Star Line - went on to be 3rd in the JLT at 12/1
Attaglance - went on to unplace in Brown Plate at 9/1




There are just too many 'ifs' at the moment. I can't argue that IF he racks up a string of 1's he'll be more attractive, or IF he runs in the NHC and gets Codd on he'll be shorter.... but you could say that about LOADS of horses at the moment.


I am not saying I wouldn't end up backing Galvin at some stage, but 20/1 isn't value given his profile of 6th in a Ballymore and 2nd in a Novice Handicap Chase....

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Quantativeeasing - went on to run at 25/1 in the JLT
White Star Line - went on to be 3rd in the JLT at 12/1
Attaglance - went on to unplace in Brown Plate at 9/1




There are just too many 'ifs' at the moment. I can't argue that IF he racks up a string of 1's he'll be more attractive, or IF he runs in the NHC and gets Codd on he'll be shorter.... but you could say that about LOADS of horses at the moment.


I am not saying I wouldn't end up backing Galvin at some stage, but 20/1 isn't value given his profile of 6th in a Ballymore and 2nd in a Novice Handicap Chase....

I can't argue with your IF's point. There a lot of horses that applies to this year! (some of which I have backed! :stupid: ). I haven't pulled the trigger yet but probably will do before the Galway Plate. Always good to hear a conflicting opinion!

 

[Lobos]

For me 20/1 TWAR is great value as he could end up with multiple targets. Each to their own though.

 

[Kevloaf]

I can't argue with your IF's point. There a lot of horses that applies to this year! (some of which I have backed! :stupid: ). I haven't pulled the trigger yet but probably will do before the Galway Plate. Always good to hear a conflicting opinion!

If he's looking like winning the Galway Plate by 10L+, you can hover over the TWAR price and I reckon you could take 20/1.

I imagine I'll be on for the Galway Plate however prices aren't about yet, or weights!

For me 20/1 TWAR is great value as he could end up with multiple targets. Each to their own though.

I do understand that, but he can only run in 1 race.... so you have to assess whether 20/1 is actually value in each specific race... thne you can factor in "the headache"

 

[Fatjockey69]

What price do you think he will be for the Galway plate

 

[Kevloaf]

What price do you think he will be for the Galway plate

Is that a genuine question? :highly_amused:
What are you hoping to do with an answer?


8/1.
Go nuts.

 

[archie]

Price of the Galway Plate favourite:
2019 8/1 (joints)
2018 9/2
2017 3/1
2016 9/4
2015 7/2
2014 8/1 (joints)
2013 7/2 (won)
2012 7/2
2011 5/1 (won)
2010 3/1

Galvin's price will, of course, be wholly dependent on what else runs.

 

[Kautostar]

Hills have had it priced up all week. He’s 10/1 fill your boots

 

[Kevloaf]

Hills have had it priced up all week. He’s 10/1 fill your boots

So that have:

My point holds very firm, I would absolutely rather take 10/1 for this e/w than 20/1 for Cheltenham 'any race'.

If he isn't going VERY close to winning this, he won't be up to improving his modest festival record IMO.