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Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

Eggs said:
....Run Wild Fred declared to run over 3m 1f tomorrow.
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Some sub plots to that. Top 4 run would make him eligible for NHC. Good run but without winning would get him a couple of pounds to guarantee getting into the PP chase at Christmas. He is currently number 33 for the PP and there has been 27 runners in each of the last 2 years, presumably that is the safety max.

as well as a mark for the Kim Muir
 
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Pendil said:
Some sub plots to that. Top 4 run would make him eligible for NHC. Good run but without winning would get him a couple of pounds to guarantee getting into the PP chase at Christmas. He is currently number 33 for the PP and there has been 27 runners in each of the last 2 years, presumably that is the safety max.

as well as a mark for the Kim Muir
Click to expand...

Very likely to be placed at least tomorrow if good enough.

Getting loads of experience in him too.... which is a benefit any race he turns up in.
 
Anyone have any thoughts on Phoenix way for this potentially? Doesn't look like they're campaigning him for a top novice chase at the festival to me. Maybe a quick go round at 2m4f next time and a crack at this similar to champagne platinum last year
 
jackh50 said:
Anyone have any thoughts on Phoenix way for this potentially? Doesn't look like they're campaigning him for a top novice chase at the festival to me. Maybe a quick go round at 2m4f next time and a crack at this similar to champagne platinum last year
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As a direct comparison to Champagne Platinum, I'd be more keen on Phoenix Way, as I think the stamina isn't in question and therefore could bring out improvement.
Last year I thought it was just wishful thinking on connections parts for CP. People got over board because it's the JP colours and the 'plots' get over bet massively.

It is impossible not to look at, and the entry and run at 2m is clearly not his optimum.

That said, he didn't really show much, and sometimes these handicap winners have actually shown good form and we go looking for improvement when it may not come.



So all in all, he's on my radar because it's impossible not to be, but I'll be trying not to get suckered in to what I feel will be a failed plot. :welcoming:
 
jackh50 said:
Anyone have any thoughts on Phoenix way for this potentially? Doesn't look like they're campaigning him for a top novice chase at the festival to me. Maybe a quick go round at 2m4f next time and a crack at this similar to champagne platinum last year
Click to expand...

I think this is very likely, and like Kev says, it may not be as much as an afterthought as Champagne, and the horse may have more in it's favour, regards stamina and jumping. I'll be watching the mark closely.
 
jackh50 said:
Anyone have any thoughts on Phoenix way for this potentially? Doesn't look like they're campaigning him for a top novice chase at the festival to me. Maybe a quick go round at 2m4f next time and a crack at this similar to champagne platinum last year
Click to expand...

He bled on Saturday when PU behind Allmankind
 
Kevloaf said:
As a direct comparison to Champagne Platinum, I'd be more keen on Phoenix Way, as I think the stamina isn't in question and therefore could bring out improvement.
Last year I thought it was just wishful thinking on connections parts for CP. People got over board because it's the JP colours and the 'plots' get over bet massively.

It is impossible not to look at, and the entry and run at 2m is clearly not his optimum.

That said, he didn't really show much, and sometimes these handicap winners have actually shown good form and we go looking for improvement when it may not come.



So all in all, he's on my radar because it's impossible not to be, but I'll be trying not to get suckered in to what I feel will be a failed plot. :welcoming:
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Completely agree in that last year CP was most likely routed to this because he didn't have anywhere that particularly stood out as a target, and JP didn't have a stand out for this either and the colours and jockey were punted over any other factor.

I think phoenix way showed a very decent level of ability to win that Warwick novice, he was at full tilt all the way round and losing lengths at every fence despite his jumping being very solid, so did particularly well to pick up the Nicholls horse. You could say that run would get him to around 145 before even stepping up in trip.

I'd be fairly confident saying he's a better horse than champagne platinum, and if he got into this you'd like to think there would be improvement from his 2 mile form, so by definition he would have to have some amount in hand.
 
I'm liking the 25's TWAR about Escaria Ten with this race as a possible target? Keith Donoghue gave him as one of 5 horses to follow at the start of the season and he's a pretty decent judge.
 
Betting as at 15-12-20 (Hills)

25/1
Glenloe
Escaria Ten
Kilfilum Cross
Demachine

33/1
School Boy Hours
Diol Ker
Bob Mahler
Storm Control
Runwildfred
 
Pendil said:
Some sub plots to that. Top 4 run would make him eligible for NHC. Good run but without winning would get him a couple of pounds to guarantee getting into the PP chase at Christmas. He is currently number 33 for the PP and there has been 27 runners in each of the last 2 years, presumably that is the safety max.

as well as a mark for the Kim Muir
Click to expand...

Run Wild Fred has just got into the PP Chase btw
 
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Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
I assume Escaria Ten’s handicap mark will exceed 145 given he won his last chase by 20 lengths. Agree?
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Galvin has an RPR of 159, OR 152
Escaria Ten got an RPR of 155, so OR should be between 145-149 at a guess?
 
I would be surprised if Escorial Ten is anywhere close to getting into the Kim Muir.

He should be competitive in a Graded race next time out.
 
Thanks Guys. I mentioned it because Gavin Lynch in the latest episode of UTA stated he hoped Escaria Ten would be in the Kim Muir with Jamie Codd on board. I think this might fall into the category of wishful thinking. In which case I’m putting 1 point of Run Wild Fred. Thanks
 
What do people think about dickie divers comeback run?

Could be chucked in off his bartlett form
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
What do people think about dickie divers comeback run?

Could be chucked in off his bartlett form
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They are going to struggle to get 2 more runs into him before the Festival to get a mark Id have thought... considering he has clearly had issues. Think they are more likely stick to one of the novice races.
 
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