Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

[FinalFurlong91]

Conflated could maybe come here but with an Irish mark of 144 can't be sure of getting in

 

[DenmanSacre]

Surely he comes here, what else has Gordon got left now? Escaria Ten, Coko Beach, Farclas all going to be too high in the weights. Braeside looked dreadful and if probably too low now. Roaring Bull beaten 88l at the weekend in a national trial.

Also who's Jamie going to ride now?? He's been on an Elliott horse for 4 of the last 5 years

If he thinks Run Wild Fred is well handicapped and a future GN horse, then the Irish National makes perfect sense. More prestigious, better prize money and he's raced right handed an awful lot. I think he's only gone left handed once over hurdles and hasn't yet over fences.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

If he thinks Run Wild Fred is well handicapped and a future GN horse, then the Irish National makes perfect sense. More prestigious, better prize money and he's raced right handed an awful lot. I think he's only gone left handed once over hurdles and hasn't yet over fences.

I agree,

The Irish National is a huge race, and its got even bigger since the prize money virtually doubled in 2017, and Willie and Gordon focussed on it a lot more.

In the last 6 running the figures are these:

(2020 - Covid - No Race)

2017 to 2019 - identical prize money
First Prize - EUR 270,000
Second Prize - EUR 95,000
Third Prize - EUR 45,000

2019
Runners 30
Winning Trainer - Willie Mullins
Bottom Weight 136
Willie - 7 runners
Gordon - 12 runners
Combined - 63% of the runners WPM/GE

2018
Runners 30
Winning Trainer - Gordon Elliott
Bottom Weight 135
Willie - 4 runners
Gordon - 13 runners
Combined - 57% of the runners WPM/GE

2017
Runners 28
Bottom Weight 137
Willie - 3 runners
Gordon - 9 runners
Combined - 43% of the runners WPM/GE

--------------------------------------------------------------
PRIZE MONEY BOOSTED FROM 2017 - WILLIE & GORDON TAKEOVER
---------------------------------------------------------------

2014 to 2016 - similar prize money
First Prize - EUR 141,000 to EUR 154,000
Second Prize - EUR 48,000 to EUR 54,000
Third Prize - EUR 24,000 to EUR 25,500

2019
Runners 27
Bottom Weight 124
Willie - 0 runners
Gordon - 6 runners
Combined - 22% of the runners WPM/GE

2018
Runners 28
Bottom Weight 127
Willie - 2 runners
Gordon - 0 runners
Combined - 7% of the runners WPM/GE

2017
Runners 26
Bottom Weight 129
Willie - 2 runners
Gordon - 2 runners
Combined - 15% of the runners WPM/GE


Summary
Its no coincidence that since the prize money doubled in 2017 Willie and Gordon have taken over the race and had the majority of the runners.

In the last ten years they hadnt won the race between them until the prize money went up, then they have each won one of the last two runnings.

This could be one reason why Willie doesnt run any/many staying handicappers in Cheltenham, and Gordon is picky on who he enters in the Kim Muir.

A lot depends on calendar timing with Cheltenham, Aintree and Fairyhouse, and this year they all take place within three weeks of each other so the Irish staying handicappers may only run in one of those three Festivals.

 

[Winging The Last]

School Big Hours tipped up by both of them on Upping the Ante

 

[Winging The Last]

And Time to Get Up by GL

 

[ComplyOrDie]

School Big Hours tipped up by both of them on Upping the Ante

They are well behind the times them two :highly_amused:

 

[Grinch]

got Shantou Flyer added by Skybet..obv chance of placing giveb his festival record and his mark ..ran fine on the comeback at Wincanton and is being aimed for the race ,,lots to like at 25s

 

[ToniC]

School Big Hours tipped up by both of them on Upping the Ante

Fuck sake. He was on my ‘maybe’ list, and have not checked but assume the price Will have been hammered now.

 

[Nathaniel99999]

Been backing School by hours, I knew this horse was well handicapped and it needed mentioning. When I mentioned the horse it was round 33/1.

 

[SamuelP]

Fuck sake. He was on my ‘maybe’ list, and have not checked but assume the price Will have been hammered now.

Into 16s with Bet365. Ladbrokes 16s also NRNB and can be boosted to 18s.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

Contemplating cashing out RWF seeing as I have him in others that I can't cash. Concerned about Gordon's latest comments and SW's good write up.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Great write up SW on the increasing lure of the Irish Grand National. I feel now that whatever happens RWF is destined not to turn up in this year’s Kim Muir. Somehow manages to survive no UK tax and all his main stable rivals get put over the magic 145 and still he ain’t going to turn up...haha.

The dilemma GW has is basically a 7/2 chance at winning 40k GBP versus an 8/1 chance (these are my guesses at SP) of winning 270k EUR, and I guess the equivalence of around 40k GBP for probably finishing up to 4th in the Irish Grand National. If these chances/figures are roughly in the ball park I don’t see how you decide to come to the Kim Muir especially with all the travel hassle. Anyway another lesson learned for next season when betting on Irish horses on this particular race and I guess the Ultima also, particularly if the gap is tight between the races.

 

[Kevloaf]

Great write up SW on the increasing lure of the Irish Grand National. I feel now that whatever happens RWF is destined not to turn up in this year’s Kim Muir. Somehow manages to survive no UK tax and all his main stable rivals get put over the magic 145 and still he ain’t going to turn up...haha.

The dilemma GW has is basically a 7/2 chance at winning 40k GBP versus an 8/1 chance (these are my guesses at SP) of winning 270k EUR, and I guess the equivalence of around 40k GBP for probably finishing up to 4th in the Irish Grand National. If these chances/figures are roughly in the ball park I don’t see how you decide to come to the Kim Muir especially with all the travel hassle. Anyway another lesson learned for next season when betting on Irish horses on this particular race and I guess the Ultima also, particularly if the gap is tight between the races.

I cannot believe what I'm reading?




Gordon Elliott? The chap who has just given the Dublin Racing Festival a swerve?

What's he swerving it for, some prize money in a race for Champion Trainer that he can't win in Ireland later in the season?


He's going to hit Cheltenham hard. Surely that's a given?!




In my opinion, thinking Run Wild Fred is "skipping" Cheltenham is miles, and I mean MILES clear of the mark. If he ha some other suitable contenders for the Kim Muir, maybe.... but he hasn't.







What I don't get, is just because Gordon has said he's a future Grand National horse, and possibly an irish National horse, why that would mean he wouldn't run off 140 in a Kim Muir? What would he even he if he won it? Milan Native won is off 141 last year and he's now 147, and one of Gordon's darts?

So what's the massive issue with him running in the Kim Muir?





I'm baffled :highly_amused:
Then again, I'm not taking his Irish National comments as gospel.... which I suppose if I did, I would totally get what you're all saying and not be baffled.

Essentially, I just don't believe it until I see it, that he'll pass up his best Kim Muir chance.

Not long to find out, if he's not entered at Cheltenham I'll just back him for the Irish National and we'll win it all back.

 

[Kevloaf]

I cannot believe what I'm reading?




Gordon Elliott? The chap who has just given the Dublin Racing Festival a swerve?

What's he swerving it for, some prize money in a race for Champion Trainer that he can't win in Ireland later in the season?


He's going to hit Cheltenham hard. Surely that's a given?!




In my opinion, thinking Run Wild Fred is "skipping" Cheltenham is miles, and I mean MILES clear of the mark. If he ha some other suitable contenders for the Kim Muir, maybe.... but he hasn't.







What I don't get, is just because Gordon has said he's a future Grand National horse, and possibly an irish National horse, why that would mean he wouldn't run off 140 in a Kim Muir? What would he even he if he won it? Milan Native won is off 141 last year and he's now 147, and one of Gordon's darts?

So what's the massive issue with him running in the Kim Muir?





I'm baffled :highly_amused:
Then again, I'm not taking his Irish National comments as gospel.... which I suppose if I did, I would totally get what you're all saying and not be baffled.

Essentially, I just don't believe it until I see it, that he'll pass up his best Kim Muir chance.

Not long to find out, if he's not entered at Cheltenham I'll just back him for the Irish National and we'll win it all back.

What I would do actually, is if RWF doens't run in the Kim Muir, is back whatever Gordon does have on the day in the Kim Muir in doubles with RWF for the Irish National.... as I just can't have him not having a proper go at it :highly_amused:

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

What I don't get, is just because Gordon has said he's a future Grand National horse, and possibly an irish National horse, why that would mean he wouldn't run off 140 in a Kim Muir? What would he even he if he won it? Milan Native won is off 141 last year and he's now 147, and one of Gordon's darts?

So what's the massive issue with him running in the Kim Muir?

I absolutely hope you are right, the issue is the gap between races this year (as SW flags) is just 18 days which surely isn’t going to be long enough for him to run in both and is in line with Gordon saying he is thinking of ‘keeping him’ for the Irish National. It’s not like the prize money is double it’s like 6-7 times the difference. I’m really not hopeful but hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[germanshepherd]

I don't see why he wouldn't run in both. RWF has had similar gaps between races all season. I don't think he'll turn down having a short fav in a Cheltenham handicap with no obvious alternatives.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I don't see why he wouldn't run in both. RWF has had similar gaps between races all season. I don't think he'll turn down having a short fav in a Cheltenham handicap with no obvious alternatives.

This is a very good point which raises my hopes a bit. I’m surprised he had already run a whopping 6 times this season with gaps of 17, 18, 23, 23 and 28 days. Considering he last run at the end of Jan he will potentially have his biggest break before the Kim Muir and then potentially be turned out again 18 days later. Still not convinced GE would want that sort of prep and potential rating hike before the big one but would appear doable for the horse based on his exertions so far this season.

 

[germanshepherd]

This is a very good point which raises my hopes a bit. I’m surprised he had already run a whopping 6 times this season with gaps of 17, 18, 23, 23 and 28 days. Considering he last run at the end of Jan he will potentially have his biggest break before the Kim Muir and then potentially be turned out again 18 days later. Still not convinced GE would want that sort of prep and potential rating hike before the big one but would appear doable for the horse based on his exertions so far this season.

He'll have plenty darts at the Irish National. Doubt RWF is his main one. Same can't be said for this race.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

He'll have plenty darts at the Irish National. Doubt RWF is his main one. Same can't be said for this race.

Farclas and Run Wild Fred are the two Gordon Elliott horses at under 28/1 in Unibets Irish National market.

They are both 12/1 shots.

For Farclas the shorter Brown Plate race was mentioned by GE for Cheltenham

For RWF no Cheltenham race was mentioned at the Grand National weights, and I think the phrase “maybe keeping him” for the Irish National is what is making some people look at RWF not running at Aintree or maybe even Cheltenham.

The Kim Muir prize fund has been cut to GBP52,500 this year, which makes approx GBP32K for the winner.
Last year it was GBP70K and GBP42K first prize.

The final entry date for all of the handicaps in Midday on Monday, so we will find out soon who is entered for all the handicaps, maybe the public will find out a day earlier than planned, on Tuesday next week

Weights are announced on Tuesday 2nd March for all Cheltenham Handicap races according to the HRI site.

I have backed RWF for the Kim Muir, and I would think he will be entered for it.

Hopefully after that, a Gordon Elliott Stable Tour would mention if he would be running at Cheltenham or be kept back for the Irish National, and give us chance to cashout Cheltenham bets if he decides to go for the big pot in Ireland,

Fingers crossed he wants to run in both, as it feels odd to think he’d foresake the Irish National to run in the Kim Muir.

 

[Quevega]

Farclas and Run Wild Fred are the two Gordon Elliott horses at under 28/1 in Unibets Irish National market.

They are both 12/1 shots.

For Farclas the shorter Brown Plate race was mentioned by GE for Cheltenham

For RWF no Cheltenham race was mentioned at the Grand National weights, and I think the phrase “maybe keeping him” for the Irish National is what is making some people look at RWF not running at Aintree or maybe even Cheltenham.

The Kim Muir prize fund has been cut to GBP52,500 this year, which makes approx GBP32K for the winner.
Last year it was GBP70K and GBP42K first prize.

The final entry date for all of the handicaps in Midday on Monday, so we will find out soon who is entered for all the handicaps, maybe the public will find out a day earlier than planned, on Tuesday next week

Weights are announced on Tuesday 2nd March for all Cheltenham Handicap races according to the HRI site.

I have backed RWF for the Kim Muir, and I would think he will be entered for it.

Hopefully after that, a Gordon Elliott Stable Tour would mention if he would be running at Cheltenham or be kept back for the Irish National, and give us chance to cashout Cheltenham bets if he decides to go for the big pot in Ireland,

Fingers crossed he wants to run in both, as it feels odd to think he’d foresake the Irish National to run in the Kim Muir.

Might be worth getting a price on Minella Till dawn for this Saxon Warrior