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Fred Winter 2018

This isn’t a race I have a decent bet in (usually just a few quid for interest), but this Nube Negra looks like a graded horse in a handicap to me.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
This isn’t a race I have a decent bet in (usually just a few quid for interest), but this Nube Negra looks like a graded horse in a handicap to me.
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What makes you think that MOM?

Apple's Shakira looks a graded horse and she beat him fairly easily...

From the commentry

Apple's Shakira - Tracked leader, led travelling strongly turning-in, drew clear run-in, unextended (op 1/8)

Nube Negra - tracked leaders, drew upsides strong travelling winner turning-in, not fluent last, soon ridden and held by easy winner but kept on for clear 2nd

Based on that he looks held in graded company? Albeit 3.5L isn't that far?

Didn't Skelton say it is their best handicapped horse since Superb Story though.... which would give you confidence for sure!
 
Kevloaf said:
What makes you think that MOM?

Apple's Shakira looks a graded horse and she beat him fairly easily...

From the commentry

Apple's Shakira - Tracked leader, led travelling strongly turning-in, drew clear run-in, unextended (op 1/8)

Nube Negra - tracked leaders, drew upsides strong travelling winner turning-in, not fluent last, soon ridden and held by easy winner but kept on for clear 2nd

Based on that he looks held in graded company? Albeit 3.5L isn't that far?

Didn't Skelton say it is their best handicapped horse since Superb Story though.... which would give you confidence for sure!
Click to expand...

If he jumped better at the last he could have been a tad closer and finishing 2nd to the fav for the triumph hurdle is not bad form plus was giving weight to AS & on the plus side he has already ran at cheltenham.

If AS was in this race Im sure she would be very short odds.
 
Kevloaf said:
What makes you think that MOM?

Apple's Shakira looks a graded horse and she beat him fairly easily...

From the commentry

Apple's Shakira - Tracked leader, led travelling strongly turning-in, drew clear run-in, unextended (op 1/8)

Nube Negra - tracked leaders, drew upsides strong travelling winner turning-in, not fluent last, soon ridden and held by easy winner but kept on for clear 2nd

Based on that he looks held in graded company? Albeit 3.5L isn't that far?

Didn't Skelton say it is their best handicapped horse since Superb Story though.... which would give you confidence for sure!
Click to expand...

I’m of the opinion that Apples Shakira is the best juvenile of 2018.

NN has her in trouble before AS outstayed her up the hill in conditions that were very testing.

NN has looked very comfortable in her other two races and I think she is a good bet for this. In a far weaker race than against the quality of AS.
 
Sirbetalot said:
If he jumped better at the last he could have been a tad closer and finishing 2nd to the fav for the triumph hurdle is not bad form plus was giving weight to AS & on the plus side he has already ran at cheltenham.

If AS was in this race Im sure she would be very short odds.
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Middle_Of_March said:
I’m of the opinion that Apples Shakira is the best juvenile of 2018.

NN has her in trouble before AS outstayed her up the hill in conditions that were very testing.

NN has looked very comfortable in her other two races and I think she is a good bet for this. In a far weaker race than against the quality of AS.
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All could be very true..certainly seen a lot of good mentions.

Personally don't think he's a future graded winner though based on being beaten by AS. I think if they met again she'd beat him further. She been "greener" and therefore/hopefully open to more improvement
 
I've actually just found the video replay on ATR website for Harry Skelton.... he makes a point of saying he waited 4 or 5 years to fancy one as much as Superb Story, wand will probably have to wait that again for another.

He then says, his best chance and standout of the week is Nube Negra ....

When I read the quote I thought it meant he fancied him AS MUCH as he did Superb Story...definitely isn't the case.
 
Frank Hickey ...

On first viewing Oxford Blu wouldn’t look like a type to win the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle because there’s far more sexier options in the race, such as Act Of Valour and Mitchouka.

However, Oxford Blu was a tough, staying handicapper on the flat. He was only rated 68, which would have been well below the favourites here. But, he was a very impressive winner on his hurdles debut and he had excuses for being beaten on his next two runs.

He’s very well handicapped here for me, he’ll love a really strong pace and will embrace a stiff finish, that’s where Oxford Blu will be at his best. Good ground will be a bonus for him also.



His trainer Olly Murphy is having a tremendous season, with an unbelievable tally of over 50 winners in his first season and I wouldn’t be surprised if Oxford Blu gave him his first Cheltenham winner either.

He’s a very big price at 20/1, he’ll more than likely have Richard Johnson on board and looks all out a decent each-way chance so I’m on him
 
Kevloaf said:
Frank Hickey ...

On first viewing Oxford Blu wouldn’t look like a type to win the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle because there’s far more sexier options in the race, such as Act Of Valour and Mitchouka.

However, Oxford Blu was a tough, staying handicapper on the flat. He was only rated 68, which would have been well below the favourites here. But, he was a very impressive winner on his hurdles debut and he had excuses for being beaten on his next two runs.

He’s very well handicapped here for me, he’ll love a really strong pace and will embrace a stiff finish, that’s where Oxford Blu will be at his best. Good ground will be a bonus for him also.



His trainer Olly Murphy is having a tremendous season, with an unbelievable tally of over 50 winners in his first season and I wouldn’t be surprised if Oxford Blu gave him his first Cheltenham winner either.

He’s a very big price at 20/1, he’ll more than likely have Richard Johnson on board and looks all out a decent each-way chance so I’m on him
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Bizarrely one of my strongest races this.
Generally you can spot the value in the NRNB market early on with plenty of video homework (selected juvenile races) watching and looking back at past runnings of the race for trainers with strong records etc.
Nube Negra 16s, Act of Valour 22s, KIng of May 33s, Oxford Blu 40s.
I backed three of these on the morning they were given their mark by the handicapper.
 
quevega said:
Bizarrely one of my strongest races this.
Generally you can spot the value in the NRNB market early on with plenty of video homework (selected juvenile races) watching and looking back at past runnings of the race for trainers with strong records etc.
Nube Negra 16s, Act of Valour 22s, KIng of May 33s, Oxford Blu 40s.
I backed three of these on the morning they were given their mark by the handicapper.
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Good work. I only have two in this now, Act of Valour 25 and Oxford Blu 33.

You think you'll leave it there?

Which horses worry you the most?
 
Surely Mitchouka is the best ew here. I think he's been let off lightly here. all Imo
 
Kevloaf said:
Good work. I only have two in this now, Act of Valour 25 and Oxford Blu 33.

You think you'll leave it there?

Which horses worry you the most?
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Just Mitchouka at the moment, but I'll probably leave it as it's an open race. it's nice to have the value but I'll take it in chin if they all dip.
 
MITCHOUKA

4yo b g (2112311)

Creachadoir - Minnaloushe

He is in very good form and he’ll take his chance in the Fred Winter. I am looking forward to running him and the one concern that I have is whether he’ll get up the hill. I’d say he’ll be ridden to get the trip. He has done nothing wrong all season and while he has plenty of weight he has a very good chance if he gets home.


Not entirely positive on Mitchouka... I like him too but haven't backed him at the moment
 
Kevloaf said:
MITCHOUKA

4yo b g (2112311)

Creachadoir - Minnaloushe

He is in very good form and he’ll take his chance in the Fred Winter. I am looking forward to running him and the one concern that I have is whether he’ll get up the hill. I’d say he’ll be ridden to get the trip. He has done nothing wrong all season and while he has plenty of weight he has a very good chance if he gets home.


Not entirely positive on Mitchouka... I like him too but haven't backed him at the moment
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Probably the most perfect back-to-lay horse at the festival for me!
 
Kevloaf said:
MITCHOUKA

4yo b g (2112311)

Creachadoir - Minnaloushe

He is in very good form and he’ll take his chance in the Fred Winter. I am looking forward to running him and the one concern that I have is whether he’ll get up the hill. I’d say he’ll be ridden to get the trip. He has done nothing wrong all season and while he has plenty of weight he has a very good chance if he gets home.


Not entirely positive on Mitchouka... I like him too but haven't backed him at the moment
Click to expand...

I think they really fancy him on the QT:devilish:
 
opatcho said:
Don't want to sound boring, and I know favourites don't win this race, but Nube Negra looked a different animal in his two wins and ran a fine race against Apple S
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I think the horse has a massive chance, just hope he likes the ground..
 
opatcho said:
Don't want to sound boring, and I know favourites don't win this race, but Nube Negra looked a different animal in his two wins and ran a fine race against Apple S
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With Malaya out I am back to the drawing board but could settle on NN
 
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