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Fred Winter 2018

Kevloaf said:
The presence of Redicean at the head of the weights for the £80,000 Boodles Fred Winter has given the race a strange look, but given that entries closed long before Alan King’s exciting juvenile had destroyed his rivals in the Adonis (and earned a 12lb hike in the ratings as a consequence), it was a sensible precaution to put him in.

As such a substantial rise in the weights is assured meaning that some of those set to carry very low weights - such as the Olly Murphy-trained Oxford Blu - will get in nicely in the middle of the handicap.

Murphy singled out Oxford Blu for a positive mention when weighing up his possible runners and gave away the news that he is hoping to bag Richard Johnson for the ride, making the horse look an interesting option at 25-1.

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Oxford Blu is actually available at 33/1 still..... I find myself being absolutely drawn in by Olly Murphy's confidence and ability to target races.

33/1, with Dickie on board... with a 'feather weight' (that he needs on his form to be fair)...but you get the impression he has 1 day in mind?
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Alex Hammond has given Oxford Blu a plug in her Sporting Life column today - if anyone fancies it you can boost the 33s available with Ladbrokes to 40s if you’ve got a Boost left with them!
 
Cashew King said:
Alex Hammond has given Oxford Blu a plug in her Sporting Life column today - if anyone fancies it you can boost the 33s available with Ladbrokes to 40s if you’ve got a Boost left with them!
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Why do I instantly like it less now that the lovely Alex Hammond has tipped it :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
To be honest its his strike rate.... 50 winners up this season... that is impressive. He's clearly on the right trajectory to be compared to HIS mentor Gordon Elliott at some stage and having a Cheltenham winner early on in his fledging career wouldn't surprise me.

If I am honest, and he was trained by plenty of other capable trainers, I'd be a little less warm on his chances. I have certainly bought in to the hype.... and despite "only the one big handicap race".... that is "one" more than plenty of other more well known and established trainers have... and I don't think you'd be confident saying that is the limit of Olly Murphy's abilities?


***to answer your original question..... "do I have a slight man crush"..... I will let the forum decide :highly_amused:
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Cracking trainer, I suspect he'll make it all the way to the top is my honest opinion.

There are some young trainers around who have left top yards to go it alone, and for me he has started the best of any of these over the last few years, I think he'll surpass the likes of Skelton / Fry in time, not over night of course.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Cracking trainer, I suspect he'll make it all the way to the top is my honest opinion.

There are some young trainers around who have left top yards to go it alone, and for me he has started the best of any of these over the last few years, I think he'll surpass the likes of Skelton / Fry in time, not over night of course.
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Had his 50th winner in 7 months yesterday, some going.
 
Folski said:
Had his 50th winner in 7 months yesterday, some going.
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Superb performance from Murphy. Surely his main chance at this fez is Hunters Call. I'd be worried about Hunters Call getting in to the County as he might well have done too good a job with his weight. If he had the same ammunition as Fry in his yard I'd be confident he'd do a far better job.
 
I think some may be thinking that when the weights go up 10lb it will be very difficult for those at the top end but I am not so sure that there are actually are too many lurkers below 10.10 this year. Mitchouka has to give 4lbs which might not be too harsh.

Of those further down Vision D'Ete easily won a big field maiden but that was on very testing ground and we haven't seen him for three months. Plot or problem? He was okay over the last three but previously his hurdling was a little bit sticky and that wouldn't work at the Festival.
 
I cannot, for the life of me, work out why Nube Negra is fav for this race?

Yes he's won impressively twice, but the form appears to amount to very little to me.
 
Deep dive done.

Last 6 years, 2 winners and 1 place on 127, nothing below has got involved, everything else in 130s. I've cut everything 126-.

6 of 6 winners 1st or 2nd on penultimate start.

5 of 6 won that season exception came straight from France, the 5 all ran in February.

In the last 6 years 5 of the 24 places were occupied by ex Irish or UK flat horses all rated at least 80 on the flat. The other 19 places were occupied by horse starting their careers in France or Germany.

Taking all that into account I was left with the following:

Casa Tall - if runs will be first start for Tom George, he hasn't had any runners in this race last 6 years.
Mitchouka - Looks a decent horse, Elliott used first time headgear on Flaxen Flare (won) and Campeador (Fell at last going well).
Malaya - Mares 4 wins from 14 runners last 7 years.
Brave Dancing - French trained
Ballywood - Alan King only 1 place from 9 runners last 6 years 3/1f Venor
Doctor Bartolo - See above
Eureu Du Boulay - Richard Hobson trained will be first run for him since coming from France, one runner in this well beat at 100/1.
Solo Saxophone - Skeltons have managed 6th in this twice, Frankel gelding and sure to be hyped.
The King Of May

I have ended up backing The King Of May in this. 3rd behind We Have A Dream and Act Of Valour beat 6.75L getting 5lb from WHAD and 3lb from AOV. Runs off 128, was having his first run for Brian Ellison here and surely comes on for the run as it was his first run since August. Ellison has saddled the 5th in Totalize and last years 3rd (beat 0.5L) Nietzsche, both ran at Musselbrugh on the way here.

He finished 2.25L behind Act Of Valour on last run in receipt of 3lb, he'll be getting 8lb in this from AOV. Yet AOV is generally a single figure price and Ellison's charge is 20s.
 
Does anyone give any chance to The King Of May in this, should he turn up?

Probably one that hasn't been seen by many, as he doesn't have a fashionable trainer, is only a 20/1 shot, but has just 2 1/4 lengths to make up with Act Of Valour, who is favourite for this race, with a 5lb swing in The King Of May's favour, not to mention the likelihood of him coming on for his UK debut run, where as both Act Of Valour & the first that day, We Have A Dream, both were having their 3rd & 4th starts respectively, possibly one overlooked and overpriced based on this?
 
Folski said:
Deep dive done.

Last 6 years, 2 winners and 1 place on 127, nothing below has got involved, everything else in 130s. I've cut everything 126-.

6 of 6 winners 1st or 2nd on penultimate start.

5 of 6 won that season exception came straight from France, the 5 all ran in February.

In the last 6 years 5 of the 24 places were occupied by ex Irish or UK flat horses all rated at least 80 on the flat. The other 19 places were occupied by horse starting their careers in France or Germany.

Taking all that into account I was left with the following:

Casa Tall - if runs will be first start for Tom George, he hasn't had any runners in this race last 6 years.
Mitchouka - Looks a decent horse, Elliott used first time headgear on Flaxen Flare (won) and Campeador (Fell at last going well).
Malaya - Mares 4 wins from 14 runners last 7 years.
Brave Dancing - French trained
Ballywood - Alan King only 1 place from 9 runners last 6 years 3/1f Venor
Doctor Bartolo - See above
Eureu Du Boulay - Richard Hobson trained will be first run for him since coming from France, one runner in this well beat at 100/1.
Solo Saxophone - Skeltons have managed 6th in this twice, Frankel gelding and sure to be hyped.
The King Of May

I have ended up backing The King Of May in this. 3rd behind We Have A Dream and Act Of Valour beat 6.75L getting 5lb from WHAD and 3lb from AOV. Runs off 128, was having his first run for Brian Ellison here and surely comes on for the run as it was his first run since August. Ellison has saddled the 5th in Totalize and last years 3rd (beat 0.5L) Nietzsche, both ran at Musselbrugh on the way here.

He finished 2.25L behind Act Of Valour on last run in receipt of 3lb, he'll be getting 8lb in this from AOV. Yet AOV is generally a single figure price and Ellison's charge is 20s.
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Last comment previous page COD
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Cheers Folski, sorry, it's so hard to keep up with every post on here, I think I must miss loads :highly_amused:
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I know. Think the horse is cracking value at the moment, should he really be 12 points higher than AOV.
 
Two darts fired at this so far act of vaour + Oxford blu

Just added brave dancing 40-1 ew with hills , he ran in the same race
As farclas who has improved for g.e. , brave dancing has won his last race and switched too David cottin there may be not any substance too that form at all, but his pedigree looks well bred , a festival winner Penn hill. Jockey Felix de Giles quote " I imagine he,s not a well handicapped horse, but he might be a horse that acts well at the track".

I think he could be a well handicapped horse and all the other unknowns are factored in the price.

I will probably look at nube negra on the day , I think I probably need to stop there on this race. :)
 
Just had another 2.5pts to win @ 10/1 with hills on Nube Negra, the pass few weeks I keep hearing about this horse and hows its going to win, form looks pretty good and it could well be a grade horse running in a handicap, I would be gutted if it hosed up and I hadn't put a bit more on.
 
Sirbetalot said:
Just had another 2.5pts to win @ 10/1 with hills on Nube Negra, the pass few weeks I keep hearing about this horse and hows its going to win, form looks pretty good and it could well be a grade horse running in a handicap, I would be gutted if it hosed up and I hadn't put a bit more on.
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Dink
Pedigree: Poliglote-Napeta (Woodman)
Cheltenham Festival entries: Nube Negra (Fred Winter, Triumph)

The 14-year-old Dink certainly boasts an intriguing race record, having finished third in the 2007 Spanish Derby and winning ten races on the Flat in Spain from ages two to six, before being tried without success over an assortment of obstacles in France at seven.

The son of Poliglote returned to Spain and stood there for four seasons before arriving at Haras de la Bareliere in France in 2016, where he currently stands at a €1,500 fee.

Dink could be represented by his first Cheltenham runner this year should the Spanish-bred Nube Negra line up in either of the juvenile events. The Dan Skelton-trained gelding is already two-from-three over hurdles, having also placed three times in seven starts on the Flat in Spain. The fact Dink shares his sire with RSA Chase winner Don Poli and leading St James's Foxhunter Place fancy Wonderful Charm should allay any pedigree fears for Nube Negra backers.
 
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