• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

FJ Day One Festival Yankee - Manager Leman14

Kevloaf said:
Charbel without Altior looks really solid to me! Worry that he'd set the race up for others who are ridden to place, but got the best form behind Altior of any 2m novice chaser?
Click to expand...

Noted Kev :)

My only worry with the Arkle, is by decision deadline, will we still have 9 runners declared (I guess we would need that for EW Without Altior)
I'm not one to play the w/o markets normally, so would need some advice/guidance on this.
 
Good point, nothing wrong with bringing the deadline forward if this is the angle, 5 days decs due Thur 9 March so before then is needed....
 
I quite fancy Movewiththetimes as an EW/value play for this.
Form figures of 1512 - all over 2 miles (ish)

The 5th placed (of 6 runners) at Cheltenahm doesn't look great on the face of it, but was under 4 lengths behind the winner Moon Racer (off level weights) and only one length back from Ballyandy (3rd) (giving 4lbs)
This was only his 2nd race over hurdles and 3rd race under rules and at 2 years MR's junior - would have improvement in him.

Then finishes 2nd to Ballyandy (3/4 lengths) the other week (giving Ballyandy 1lb)

Has experience of running in largish fields - 10 (1st), 18 (1st), 16 (2nd)

If Moon Racer and Ballyandy are the (form) yardstick from the UK, MR is 5's (and may still go CH), BA is 7's (and may still go Neptune) - whilst Movewiththetimes is 12's and this looks to be the target
 
Leman14 said:
I quite fancy Movewiththetimes as an EW/value play for this.
Form figures of 1512 - all over 2 miles (ish)

The 5th placed (of 6 runners) at Cheltenahm doesn't look great on the face of it, but was under 4 lengths behind the winner Moon Racer (off level weights) and only one length back from Ballyandy (3rd) (giving 4lbs)
This was only his 2nd race over hurdles and 3rd race under rules and at 2 years MR's junior - would have improvement in him.

Then finishes 2nd to Ballyandy (3/4 lengths) the other week (giving Ballyandy 1lb)

Has experience of running in largish fields - 10 (1st), 18 (1st), 16 (2nd)

If Moon Racer and Ballyandy are the (form) yardstick from the UK, MR is 5's (and may still go CH), BA is 7's (and may still go Neptune) - whilst Movewiththetimes is 12's and this looks to be the target
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree anymore L14. They would be evenly matched of levels, and double the price?

I'll know who I'd rather be backing and I wouldn't put you off from including him in your selection, especially if MR goes the CH route.

The main danger would be CP if he shows up here. He has so much speed and his is jumping is SO natural and slick.

But value lies with MWTT.
 
I agree that MWTT is closely matched with MR and Ballyandy but surely that damning stat of "17 out of last 19 winners of this had won last time out" puts you off!? Certainly does for me.
 
Charli Parcs 8/13 first show against Evening Hush this weekend. WHEN he bolts up, on the bridle...he is the new fav for this race.

I do think you make a good case for MWTT being over-priced... compared to MR and BA. (At least after the weekend we'll KNOW where CP stands though)

I think if he absolutely bolts up he'll still be a decent enough price too. 11/4 maybe. I am excited.
 
finch said:
I agree that MWTT is closely matched with MR and Ballyandy but surely that damning stat of "17 out of last 19 winners of this had won last time out" puts you off!? Certainly does for me.
Click to expand...

But it's not 19/19 :devilish:
 
I suggest Yanworth for the CH.
I've made my case in the CH thread....:devilish:
 
Thanks Kev - noted :)

It is likely (not definite) that my 4 picks will avoid the Mares and Arkle and focus on Supreme, Champion Hurdle, Ultima, 4-Miler and the Novice Chase.

As mentioned above, the 4-Miler can wait until we know more about Jockey Bookings.
Mall Dini is a strong (and much loved) option for the Ultima and we have a pick from Bunk Off Early and Movewiththetimes from the Supreme (unless any other good cases can be made - at a price)

Kev has put forward a strong case for Yanworth - but tomorrow's clash between Limini and AJ could shed some light (or otherwise) on their participation.

Still happy to hear ANY cases that can be made for Tuesday runners.
 
I think when the decs are in we may have more of an idea about targets, and when the weights are announced there'll be more ideas for this and every yankee....
 
Well someone might as well kick off.

Buveur d'air---CH
Melon----------Supreme
Hells kitchen---Close brothers
Saphir du rheu--Ultima
 
I thought I read something about Hell's Kitchen being injured but can't find a link
 
Nicholls not keen on ultima

Something of a frustrating horse but came good at Kelso last week, where he bolted up as he should have done. He jumped really well there and is just starting to get his act together a little bit. When he won a Grade One at Aintree we thought he was going to be a superstar over fences but he just lost his way a little. His last few runs have been good. He jumped really well at Cheltenham and stayed on strongly over a trip that was too short for him the time before. He's a little in no man's land as he has a high mark and I've entered him in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the first day but he's almost certain to run in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. Andy Stewart is dead keen to run there and it is hard to argue he's a certainty in a handicap of 11st 12lb. On all known form he's not going to trouble the main ones but he's the sort of horse who'll run a tidy race and finish fifth or sixth. He has plenty of ability and we haven't seen the best of him yet. He's in at Aintree after Cheltenham but that may come too soon and we'll wait another year but there is a really decent race in this horse somewhere and at long last he's getting his act together.
 
You're right OV - Harry Fry said he had a set back and is not in training at the moment.
 
I'd like to put Squouateur (16/1 NRNB) up for the Close Brothers Handicap.

He's perfectly aged, looks like he's going to be perfectly weighted, having been given an Irish mark of 133 and finishing 2nd over a distance too short LTO with many previous winners in behind him.

A lot of strong stats/trends back him up:

Ran within the last 60 days - last 11 winners had all done so.

Finished 2nd LTO - 9 of the last 11 winners finished top 3 in previous run.

Has had 5 Chase starts - Last 11 winners have had between 3 & 7 chase starts.

Has won over 2m 4f+ before - 9 of last 11 winners had also done so prior to the race.

Had a hurdle rating of 141 - 10 of last 11 winners had official hurdle ratings above 124.

Only had 7 hurdle runs - 9 of last 11 winners had raced in 8 or less hurdles races before going chasing.

There are of course a couple of negatives, but not ones that scare me off, and to be honest, finding a horse without some sort of negative in a race like this seems nigh impossible.

The horse was really well thought of last season as a hurdler, especially for the festival, being backed heavily all day in to favourite for the Martin Pipe before being unable to land a blow in that race. The fact they switched him to Fences so quickly suggests they expect more over these obstacles than they did over hurdles yet he was so readily fancied over them so he must have some ability.

His chase runs to date haven't exactly been inspiring but then again we have seen JP's horses run below par for a nice handicap mark before so this isn't an issue that overly bothers me, and it was nice to see him come back to some kind of form LTO as we head closer to the festival.

He also seems to have contested the hottest beginners chase races, against horses like Anibale Fly, Min & American Tom, all over what would suggest to be an inadequate trip, 2 of which have gone on to win or place in Grade 1 races.
 
Some early selections before deadlines etc.

Supreme - Moon Racer
Arkle - Altior
Champion - Buveur D'Air
N.Hunt Chase - Beware The Bear
 
CorD - I can't find the profile because despite a gazillion attempts I'm still spelling the horses name wrong, however, I do remember this one being well touted last year and it may have been either (or a combination of both) the soft ground or the more stamina sapping New Course that was his undoing.
The day one nov chase is on the Old Course which may suit him better so a definite runner and if I ever get the check his form/profile I'll let you know....
 
I like the chance of Bunk off early in the supreme, better ground will play to his strengths and may still be the choice of Ruby, over Melon, price will likely be much lower than the current 8's, or thereabouts, if he does
 
Last edited:
Limini. :devilish::encouragement:
 
Champers on Ice 4 miler anyone ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom