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Fat Jockey - Day Two Festival Yankee - Captain is bobbyvalentino

delsie777 said:
Paul Nicholls just spat his cornflakes all over the gaff!

Just thought I'd chuck my oar in bobby -

Battleoverdoyoun - overpriced because of the hype horse Chimp.
Delta Work - overpriced. Just overpriced.
Lethal Steps - biggest plot since Plotty McPlotface plotted the plot of all plots
Blue Sari - get on before the Irish preview panels kick in and smash the price
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong, the bumper looks possibly the weakest we'll ever see this year.
But I cannot think for a minute that Blue Sari is anywhere near the best Willie has.
He may end up his only runner and that's why he'll be popular.
And I'm not saying he can't win a poor bumper for Cheltenham standards.
But there's no way WP Mullins has said

"I'm not going to run hardly any of my bumper horses this year, cos of the ground, but I will run my best one"

Just don't make sense to me.
It'll probably hack up:)
 
delsie777 said:
Paul Nicholls just spat his cornflakes all over the gaff!

Just thought I'd chuck my oar in bobby -

Battleoverdoyoun - overpriced because of the hype horse Chimp.
Delta Work - overpriced. Just overpriced.
Lethal Steps - biggest plot since Plotty McPlotface plotted the plot of all plots
Blue Sari - get on before the Irish preview panels kick in and smash the price
Click to expand...

I think TOTG would be deadly in the JLT, but Nicholls is stubborn. Chances are slim.

Thanks delsie - I'm with you on Delta Work, and Blue Sari would be my pick of the bumpers without having gone into much depth yet. Sits with the go-to man in WPM and bolted up on his only start by 11L. People underestimate how much toe a horse needs to have to win by that distance in Irish bumpers where they often crawl round, and even more so in soft ground. You'd think by his action he will be suited by a sounder surface and receiving 8lbs off the others due to the 4yo allowance could make him deadly
 
bobbyvalentino said:
I think TOTG would be deadly in the JLT, but Nicholls is stubborn. Chances are slim.

Thanks delsie - I'm with you on Delta Work, and Blue Sari would be my pick of the bumpers without having gone into much depth yet. Sits with the go-to man in WPM and bolted up on his only start by 11L. People underestimate how much toe a horse needs to have to win by that distance in Irish bumpers where they often crawl round, and even more so in soft ground. You'd think by his action he will be suited by a sounder surface and receiving 8lbs off the others due to the 4yo allowance could make him deadly
Click to expand...

WPM playing it down a bit but the rest of the stable love him and it's well documented that his beating of Front View shocked connections of the second. With the weight allowance she'll be too good.
 
delsie777 said:
Paul Nicholls just spat his cornflakes all over the gaff!

Just thought I'd chuck my oar in bobby -

Battleoverdoyoun - overpriced because of the hype horse Chimp.
Delta Work - overpriced. Just overpriced.
Lethal Steps - biggest plot since Plotty McPlotface plotted the plot of all plots
Blue Sari - get on before the Irish preview panels kick in and smash the price
Click to expand...

Like 3 of them but can't stand the bumper, I just play a few bigger prices (for interest) but I think it's a terrible race myself.
 
Don’t forget the deadline is Sunday before racing so the previews will be mostly done....
 
If T.O.T.G goes J.L.T , then I'm going to live in a Monastery for the rest of my Day's.
What with C.E and then L.R , That would just finish me !.
I think Paul Nichols will stick to the R.S.A , coz he did say T.O.T.G better over further .
Still Like Delta work too , Starting to get a little worried about Santini.
For the Ballymore , I do like Easy Game .
 
I'm sensing a lot of love for Lethal Steps. My gut tells me including a Fred Winter horse, the second least predictable race of the festival (behind the Plate), is probably not the smartest move.

My solution will be to offer an additional Super Yankee of five selections including the bonus ball round of a Fred Winter selection for those that are feeling brave, lucky and stupid
 
bobbyvalentino said:
I'm sensing a lot of love for Lethal Steps. My gut tells me including a Fred Winter horse, the second least predictable race of the festival (behind the Plate), is probably not the smartest move.

My solution will be to offer an additional Super Yankee of five selections including the bonus ball round of a Fred Winter selection for those that are feeling brave, lucky and stupid
Click to expand...

I would find it SO much easier finding the winner of the Plate than the Bumper in any season.

At least the Fred Winter is a handicap so we have some stuff to go on.... albeit a tough one!
 
Kevloaf said:
I would find it SO much easier finding the winner of the Plate than the Bumper in any season.

At least the Fred Winter is a handicap so we have some stuff to go on.... albeit a tough one!
Click to expand...

6 of the last 7 winners of the Fred Winter went off bigger than 25/1
Most of these horses will have been campaigned minimally and strategically to get a mark, so actually there's a lot that is being kept back from us. Not an impossible race by applying certain methods for sure, but it's hard for us to get an edge on.
 
You're the boss...so to clarify, we're essentially picking one from the Ballymore, RSA, Coral Cup, Bumper?

as Altior and Tiger Roll are too short, and Fred Winter too random?
 
Kevloaf said:
You're the boss...so to clarify, we're essentially picking one from the Ballymore, RSA, Coral Cup, Bumper?

as Altior and Tiger Roll are too short, and Fred Winter too random?
Click to expand...

I haven't done my Cross Country post yet Kev ;)


.... but most likely, yes. And a Super Yankee for those that want to include Fred Winter
 
The King Pimm said:
What are your thoughts on Master Debonair for the bumper?
Click to expand...

He ticks a few boxes with course form and having a good bit of experience starting from May last year, so should be pretty forward. Tizzard is confident and proclaiming it's a Supreme horse, but personally I don't listen to a word that man says. Visually hasn't screamed star on races to date?
 
Bumper not my Race , I'll go - Easy game - B.more, Delta work - R.s.a and Early doors -coral cup.
currently.
 
It's interesting so many on here dislike the bumper, I've had pretty decent run of it with Ballyandy, Fayonagh and Carefully Selected/Tornado Flyer places last year. In relation to the SP of the winners it is officially the most difficult conditions race, but it is still theoretically easier to find the winner than all the handicaps (bar the Nov HC, MP and Annual). I think a lot of people get thrown by the apparent Mullins first string when he is mob handed and they rarely do the business in this.

The Coral Cup is the 5th most predictable handicap so I think we've got a good chance of finding the winner here. It favours the top end of the market (the top 8 taking 8 of last 10 renewals) and we are much less likely to be blind-sided by a plot job.

My two to throw in the Coral Cup mix:

Cracking Smart 25/1 this horse has some very smart back class, running Next Destination to a length last season in the Lawlors, but was unfortunately side-lined for the rest of the season with injury. The fact he missed the spring festivals means he is going somewhat under the radar. The slight concern in my head was he wouldn't handle the better ground, but on his most recent run he travelled very pleasingly and was right upside Tiger Roll before being smashed into at the 3rd last. Then being on the back foot he wasn't pushed too hard to claim 3rd 2l behind Off You Go who is now 8/1 2nd fav for the Coral Cup. Let's see what the weights are tomorrow, but I imagine Cracking Smart doesn't have much to find at all and anticipate some improvement as Elliot brings him to the boil.

Early Doors 25/1 with a likely much lower weight, Early Doors is of interest. He's been tried up in graded company this season and been absolutely smashed up by Apples Jade over 2m4f and 3m. Behind him the last day were some decent graded types in Bapaume, Jezki and Shaneshill, but with a 26L loss the handicapper can't do much damage. Brings festival form to the table having come 3rd in last years Martin Pipe upsides Discorama and Sire Du Berlais. He looks overpriced.
 
Post #7 of #7

Glenfarcas Cross Country

This is a specialists race, hence the tendency for repeat winners. They go slowly, and the fences are not huge, so unless the ground is soft it is not as much of a stamina test as you’d think judging by the distance. The Punchestown course is very different to Cheltenham’s set up and the form no longer translates over well now better horses are targeting the discipline. You want a nimble horse that can hold a position, be balanced over obstacles and pick up in the final sprint. Many classy horses simply don’t take to it. It’s very rare to win this on cross-country debut, but the “give a sighter” method has been successful for the last two years.

- Horses that didn’t run in calendar year (+17.5pts)
- Placed on last run (+13.5pts)
- Front two in the market (+12pts)
- Run in 1-5 cross country chases (+10pts)
- Enda Bolger hasn’t won this in 9 renewals. Mullins is also 0/12.

Key contenders:

Tiger Roll 11/10: considered by many to be one of the true bankers of the meeting, it’s hard to pick holes in his form. My only angle would be a heavy ground GN taking the edge off him, but he appeared more spritely than ever winning the Boyne hurdle over 2m5f last time. He really is a remarkable horse and barring accident he should turn up and win this.

Ballycasey 20/1: should the fav not make it I want to have a backup plan, and I’d be very forgiving of Ballycasey’s defeat LTO defeat if he lines up here. He’s a classy type and multiple graded winner including the Flogas as a novice. Being given the “sighter” method over the Cheltenham fences back in December he looked at ease over the banks and has since been back over for schooling. He returned lame on his last start, and as stated above the Punchestown layout is very different, so I’m not taking that form literally. Last update I saw he was 50/50 to line up, but if he does I think he should be clear second favourite.

I’m open to people’s views, but if we were to include a shortie anchor leg in the Yankee I’d much rather take the 11/10 about Tiger Roll than 4/9 about Altior. He’s still value IMO.
 
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Even money too short for myself bobby think it will be last option to stick a shortie in imo
 
Thanks for the input Arkle, and fair enough I'm sure many will agree with you.

My current view is that Delta Work makes a strong anchor at around 3/1, although I do think he's going to be hammered in over the next few weeks. Can see him going off fav given Santini's interrupted prep

Lethal Steps seems fairly ubiquitous in the Fred Winter

Happy to focus on Ballymore, Bumper and Coral for suggestions right now
 
Always thought that a win yankee should have 2 shorter odds and 2 longer odds. The theory is that the short double pays most of the bet.

At their current prices, Delta Work and Tiger Roll fit the bill nicely but may not in a week's time.

Because of the going, the bumper form is all over the place and it's easy to see an unexposed type coming through.

No comment on any handicap until the weights are out.

My method for the Ballymore is to pick one Irish and one UK horse. If I can only have one, I leave it until I know the decs.
 
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