-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Fat Jockey - Day Two Festival Yankee - Captain is bobbyvalentino
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
Could be a good day for Elliott this day looking at his runners. I’ll put my neck on the line and say this will be his most successful day
Battleoverdoyen
Delta Work
The Storyteller
QMCC - Nothing?
Tiger Roll
Lethal Steps/Surin
Envoi Allen/Thatsy
Very much so.
Post #3 of #7
Queen Mother Champion Chase
This could be a quick one.
Ability to jump at speed essential and a unique skill. On a sound surface horses that jump well don’t stop, so the stayers don’t get into it, so you want to be close to the pace. Basic toe demonstrated in Arkle and graded hurdles form. Front of the market dominates and upsets are rare. You have a have a very good reason to forgive an LTO defeat.
- Previous seasons Arkle winners (+16pts)
- Recorded an RPR of 160+ on their most recent hurdle run (+19pts)
- The shortest second season chaser in the market (+15pts)
- Won a 2m G1 hurdle race (+15pts)
- Winners of a G1 novice chase previous season, but no open chase win (+10.5pts)
- Last time out winners (+12pts)
Key contenders:
Altior 4/9: I’m not going to list out the positives of what I believe is currently the best horse in NH training. My only lingering doubt is that horses get slower as they get older, and Altior is now 9yo, but we’ve had three horses win this as a veteran in recent years (Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara - slightly fortunately), so I’m not overly concerned. He jumped markedly left when we last saw him which suggested he either had a preference for jumping from his left leg that day, or there was some pain in the right side he was avoiding. If this was to be repeated at Cheltenham, plus the chance that he could hit a flat spot, might he be run off his feet on a sounder surface? Probably not this year, but one day. Barring a serious error, Altior wins this for me, but there’s not enough juice in the price for a Yankee IMO.
Min 8/1: struggling to think of reasons why Min would turn the form around, with his best chance relying on a serious error from Altior. For all he’s still the second best two-mile chaser in my eyes, he is exposed. We’re likely to have a repeat of last year’s 1-2, but Min needs a strong pace to guarantee his best, and I’m not entirely surely where that is coming from with the sad departure of Special Tiara. (this is assuming he even runs here)
Footpad 9/1: looked a star in the making but has been a shadow of his former self this season, suffering an overreach in his first two starts. During his hurdles campaign softer ground was considered a big plus to this horse, which he got for most of last season, but has not had the benefit of this year. Whether he can’t quite pull together his jumping on the sounder surface I’m not quite sure, but he would definitely be of interest to me if ground was on the softer side.
Sceau Royal 16/1: this horse is a very fine jumper and usually travels sweetly through a race, but definitely has stamina doubts getting up the hill. He might be seeing out the trip better this year but I wasn’t overly impressed with the Shloer win beating Simply Ned 2.5 lengths (receiving 3lbs off him), and he was recently turned over in a hurdle race by Grand Sancy. He needs the ground to come up good, but given his stalking style he could be a play in the without market depending on the final field.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
This could be a quick one.
Ability to jump at speed essential and a unique skill. On a sound surface horses that jump well don’t stop, so the stayers don’t get into it, so you want to be close to the pace. Basic toe demonstrated in Arkle and graded hurdles form. Front of the market dominates and upsets are rare. You have a have a very good reason to forgive an LTO defeat.
- Previous seasons Arkle winners (+16pts)
- Recorded an RPR of 160+ on their most recent hurdle run (+19pts)
- The shortest second season chaser in the market (+15pts)
- Won a 2m G1 hurdle race (+15pts)
- Winners of a G1 novice chase previous season, but no open chase win (+10.5pts)
- Last time out winners (+12pts)
Key contenders:
Altior 4/9: I’m not going to list out the positives of what I believe is currently the best horse in NH training. My only lingering doubt is that horses get slower as they get older, and Altior is now 9yo, but we’ve had three horses win this as a veteran in recent years (Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara - slightly fortunately), so I’m not overly concerned. He jumped markedly left when we last saw him which suggested he either had a preference for jumping from his left leg that day, or there was some pain in the right side he was avoiding. If this was to be repeated at Cheltenham, plus the chance that he could hit a flat spot, might he be run off his feet on a sounder surface? Probably not this year, but one day. Barring a serious error, Altior wins this for me, but there’s not enough juice in the price for a Yankee IMO.
Min 8/1: struggling to think of reasons why Min would turn the form around, with his best chance relying on a serious error from Altior. For all he’s still the second best two-mile chaser in my eyes, he is exposed. We’re likely to have a repeat of last year’s 1-2, but Min needs a strong pace to guarantee his best, and I’m not entirely surely where that is coming from with the sad departure of Special Tiara. (this is assuming he even runs here)
Footpad 9/1: looked a star in the making but has been a shadow of his former self this season, suffering an overreach in his first two starts. During his hurdles campaign softer ground was considered a big plus to this horse, which he got for most of last season, but has not had the benefit of this year. Whether he can’t quite pull together his jumping on the sounder surface I’m not quite sure, but he would definitely be of interest to me if ground was on the softer side.
Sceau Royal 16/1: this horse is a very fine jumper and usually travels sweetly through a race, but definitely has stamina doubts getting up the hill. He might be seeing out the trip better this year but I wasn’t overly impressed with the Shloer win beating Simply Ned 2.5 lengths (receiving 3lbs off him), and he was recently turned over in a hurdle race by Grand Sancy. He needs the ground to come up good, but given his stalking style he could be a play in the without market depending on the final field.
Last edited:
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I think Sceau Royal for a place is very good value at present, I’m sure he will shorten in price when some of the horses in front of him are confirmed for other races.
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Faugheen_Machine
Legendary Fat Jockey, Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Mod
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2014
- Messages
- 11,246
- Reaction score
- 1,552
- Points
- 83
I'll row in with Lethal Steps for the Fred Winter. Highest rated flat horse (102) who is going to be lightly treated. I think the race will suit him perfectly and if he can get into a rhythm with his hurdling, he'll be hard to beat. Is there a better trainer of a handicapper than GE and a big race jockey than Davy Russell? He'll go of fav imo.
I think so too charlie. Should the main protagonists all get there in one piece, I think it's very much a race I just want to enjoy hopefully watching an all time great pick up a his fourth consecutive festival win, rather than force a bet
Although all opinions welcome on this thread if people think there is a bet
It's a good suggestion Faugheen. I've already bet him singles and I'd be keen to get at least one handicapper in this once we've looked across the whole day
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Vision Des Flos or Tin Soldier for the Coral Cup.
Actually struggle with this day for any value myself, so wish you the best of luck making that final decision.
Actually struggle with this day for any value myself, so wish you the best of luck making that final decision.
Post #4, #5, #6 of #7
These contenders aren't evaluated because there are so many potential runners who could line up. However I’ll still put the profitable types to back down and let’s see if we can pick at least one out of these three very difficult races.
Champion Bumper
Often seen as a bit of a lottery with many big priced winners – the market influenced by trainer vibes. However it’s fair to say the pecking order is not always clear at home and the upward curve bumper horses can be on is underestimated, so focus should be paid to recent runs. Pace tends to be true which can be in stark contrast to the trials. You want to look for good cruising speed and a stayer at the trip.
- Mullins runners at 10/1 or bigger (+52pts)
- Amateur jockeys on board (+37.5pts)
- Top 2 on BHA ratings (+18pts)
- Won previous start by 6l or more (+59.5pts)
Fred Winter
Highly competitive, big field handicap. 6 of the last 7 winners went off 25/1 or bigger so it’s a race that often produces shocks and good value. Most of these will have been campaigned with a handicap mark in mind, so it can pay to focus on trainers with proven methods. Over the last five years the following marks have got a run (recent to old): 126, 124, 128, 129, 127
- Horses run in a G1 hurdle (+41pts)
- Horses began in French jumps races (+60pts)
- Paul Nicholls (+17.5pts)
- Horses run in previous 25 days (+91.5pts)
- Run only the minimum three times over hurdles (+68.5pts)
- Irish-bred (+55pts)
- Headgear (+34pts)
Coral Cup
Attracts the intermediate trip specialists, and a race that favours lightly raced, class acts towards the top of the weights on a strong upward curve, but not a first season novice (from which there has never been a winner). Recent years has been a relatively modest pace giving an advantage to speedier types. Want to spot a potential graded horse in the making, not a plot job. Over the last five years the following marks have got a run (recent to old): 135, 136, 139, 138, 135
- Gordon Elliot (+20pts)
- Horses rated 148+ (+43pts)
- French-bred (+45.5pts)
- Last time out winners (+24.5pts)
These contenders aren't evaluated because there are so many potential runners who could line up. However I’ll still put the profitable types to back down and let’s see if we can pick at least one out of these three very difficult races.
Champion Bumper
Often seen as a bit of a lottery with many big priced winners – the market influenced by trainer vibes. However it’s fair to say the pecking order is not always clear at home and the upward curve bumper horses can be on is underestimated, so focus should be paid to recent runs. Pace tends to be true which can be in stark contrast to the trials. You want to look for good cruising speed and a stayer at the trip.
- Mullins runners at 10/1 or bigger (+52pts)
- Amateur jockeys on board (+37.5pts)
- Top 2 on BHA ratings (+18pts)
- Won previous start by 6l or more (+59.5pts)
Fred Winter
Highly competitive, big field handicap. 6 of the last 7 winners went off 25/1 or bigger so it’s a race that often produces shocks and good value. Most of these will have been campaigned with a handicap mark in mind, so it can pay to focus on trainers with proven methods. Over the last five years the following marks have got a run (recent to old): 126, 124, 128, 129, 127
- Horses run in a G1 hurdle (+41pts)
- Horses began in French jumps races (+60pts)
- Paul Nicholls (+17.5pts)
- Horses run in previous 25 days (+91.5pts)
- Run only the minimum three times over hurdles (+68.5pts)
- Irish-bred (+55pts)
- Headgear (+34pts)
Coral Cup
Attracts the intermediate trip specialists, and a race that favours lightly raced, class acts towards the top of the weights on a strong upward curve, but not a first season novice (from which there has never been a winner). Recent years has been a relatively modest pace giving an advantage to speedier types. Want to spot a potential graded horse in the making, not a plot job. Over the last five years the following marks have got a run (recent to old): 135, 136, 139, 138, 135
- Gordon Elliot (+20pts)
- Horses rated 148+ (+43pts)
- French-bred (+45.5pts)
- Last time out winners (+24.5pts)
I’m still making my mind up about the Ballymore. Brewinupastorm has a great chance you’d just be nervous about coming in off a fall. If we don’t get AB/KD in the line up definitely if interest to me
Agree Delta Work looks the value in RSA, I think it’s a two horse race and Santinis prep is not going to plan.
Meticulous definitely interesting but I think there might be a more interesting one from that race
need to give the Bumper some proper time soon
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I think Top of the Game is going to be re-routed to the JLT over the next week after DDS goes to Arkle
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I think from your previous analysis of the race, from what I’ve read online/forums and market movements I think the JLT is ideal for TotG, it’s a much easier race to win and I think PN is more concerned with winning races to bolster his prize money earnings for the trainers championship he’s leading. The RSA is a tough race to win with Delta Works, Santini, Drovers Lane, Vindication & Mister Malarky all scheduled to turn up. TotG would only have LiT & RS to worry about in the JLT if DDS re-routes and given his running style (if he starts!!) he will win this race.
Last edited:
delsie777
Member
Paul Nicholls just spat his cornflakes all over the gaff!
Just thought I'd chuck my oar in bobby -
Battleoverdoyoun - overpriced because of the hype horse Chimp.
Delta Work - overpriced. Just overpriced.
Lethal Steps - biggest plot since Plotty McPlotface plotted the plot of all plots
Blue Sari - get on before the Irish preview panels kick in and smash the price