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Fat Jockey Day Three Yankee - Captain: PaisleyClegg

If Midnight Shadow does run over hurdles next week and not in a handicap chase then his price of 20-1 NRNB would represent very good value indeed.

He has been put up as Favourite for the last couple of weekends when entered in valuable handicap chases, but these were cancelled obviously.

Obviously his price may well have been blown by the time of putting the yankee up but anything still double figures would be fair.

The withdrawal from the Ryanair and recent entries suggest he is ready to run and that he may have a spring target in mind.

Obviously he could also run in a rearranged chase next week and blow his mark.
 
charlie said:
Each to their own I suppose. You do have the added advantage of not having to do it! :wink-new:

It obviously depends on the selections, but March Yankee's will generally yield a significantly lower return.

Just a suggestion.
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Yeah but I’m trying to join in with all the Yankee’s and just feel that 6 now and 6 the week before is overkill and will stretch my ever shrinking betting balance especially when handicap entries day is just around the corner.
Il just have to be selective and choose which Yankee’s to place if that’s the case.
 
charlie said:
Each to their own I suppose. You do have the added advantage of not having to do it! :wink-new:

It obviously depends on the selections, but March Yankee's will generally yield a significantly lower return.

Just a suggestion.
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These are essentially not ante post yankee's

4 weeks to have the shortlist, ready to pounce on whatever value there is at the time.


As you say, what looks good now might be gone by the day, but it's not an ante post yankee and we might have loads better value and information to make a call closer to the time....


Essentially, everyone can do ante post ones whenever they like, we have a monthly one running that MoM looks after for us.... any more is too much I'd say, especially as we get closer.


These ones are DAILY... or as close to as we can get :)
 
Quevega another great shout, still a lot to happen between now and the 15th March so any of our ideas or suggestions will be reliant on the cards falling the right way.

I do think that giving people targets to aim for helps generate the discussion:

So far:

WIN:
Marsh - Envoi
Pretemps:
Ryanair:
Stayers: Paisley Park

EW:
Ryanair: Samcro (Could also slide into the WIN yankee?)
Plate: Midnight Shadow
 
I would put up Tobefair for the Pertemps; also entered in the stayers but would have a more realistic chance of placing here - especially with the extra places available.

PaisleyClegg - are you set on the first four races rolling up onto Paisley Park? There would be lots of value in both the Plate & the Kim Muir?

In the Kim Muir - i like the returning Bob Mahler & Diese Aba at this speculative stage
The Plate - generally horses who have run well in Cheltenham handicaps throughout the season go well although we have been deprived of a few meetings this year - what about Coole Cody?
 
PaisleyClegg Given he's your namesake perhaps I am pissing in the wind, but I would be against including Paisley Park.

I imagine he'll take tons of support and the 3/1 now will probably look more like 6/4, which means any value come race week will likely be long gone. IF you can get 3/1 when you place it then fair play, I'd include him, but he lost last year at 4/6 and whilst subsequent issues appear to have been resolved, it was only Thyme Hill being ludicrously keen LTO that stopped his tally v PP reading 2/2 IMO, and he's the young improver, at a bigger price. You then have the Irish to contend with too. I don't know the numbers on this but I'd be virtually certain that backing short priced horses that were turned over at Cheltenham the previous year at odds on is an extremely quick way to the poor house (says the man who liked DDS for the Ryanair), and I think in a race that's a lot more open than the market suggests, we can find alternative options at much better prices.

I would also be opposed to including Envoi Allen because he's super short. He will ensure the W/O favourite market is very juicy. I think there is enough time between now and Cheltenham for us to try and find a player in this market at a reasonable price that will significantly increase returns.

Just my two cents worth - I would be interested to hear what you and others think on this?
 
charlie said:
PaisleyClegg Given he's your namesake perhaps I am pissing in the wind, but I would be against including Paisley Park.

I imagine he'll take tons of support and the 3/1 now will probably look more like 6/4, which means any value come race week will likely be long gone. IF you can get 3/1 when you place it then fair play, I'd include him, but he lost last year at 4/6 and whilst subsequent issues appear to have been resolved, it was only Thyme Hill being ludicrously keen LTO that stopped his tally v PP reading 2/2 IMO, and he's the young improver, at a bigger price. You then have the Irish to contend with too. I don't know the numbers on this but I'd be virtually certain that backing short priced horses that were turned over at Cheltenham the previous year at odds on is an extremely quick way to the poor house (says the man who liked DDS for the Ryanair), and I think in a race that's a lot more open than the market suggests, we can find alternative options at much better prices.

I would also be opposed to including Envoi Allen because he's super short. He will ensure the W/O favourite market is very juicy. I think there is enough time between now and Cheltenham for us to try and find a player in this market at a reasonable price that will significantly increase returns.

Just my two cents worth - I would be interested to hear what you and others think on this?
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I agree for what it’s worth, envoi allen is too short now and certainly will be come the day of race for any Yankee’s. My input would be to target the handicap’s for these bets and take advantage of the 5/6places each way.
 
RufusFlynn absolutely not, just an idea I had when thinking how I might start off the discussion. With multis/yankees I quite like having one or two that sort of anchor the bet so that at some point that day you have something to really get behind.

We are getting loads of good suggestions at bigger prices so I can already see this heading down the EW route.
With the EW bet, it's worth remembering that we need two 'winners' to get any sort of payout. At 20/1 and 1/4 odds we need two placed horses to come away with a return of just over 50%.

I was just having a play and does a blended approach work best a couple of 'Winners' and a couple of 'EW' shouts who obviously aren't without chance of actually getting their nose in front.
 
charlie Don't disagree at all, I think the other angle to consider with PP and EA is that lots of people on here will already have them covered don't really want too much double jeopardy going around.

I do think having a read back on last years thread can help here, a lot of winners weren't even mentioned as everyone fished around for longer punts.

Again I was just playing around and a 5/6, 8/1, 3/1 and 5/1 shots all placing pays out double your money.

Boosts the Min argument, and discounts PP and Samcro who are the type to either win or be nowhere.

So come out me with your My Tents or Yours and Politigoues!
 
This day has Gordon Elliot written all over it.

EA
TBO
SAMCRO
FURY ROAD
CONFLATED
RUN WILD FRED
QUEENS BROOK - (i am getting a bit yankee drunk now)
RWF

RETIRE!!! I am going to have to have some multiples with these in!
 
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The Bosses Oscar (fav in a handicap I know) but if he doesn't place I'll be surprised. Gordon isn't messing about.

The Ryanair is well hard to name a placer.... Samcro's festival form of 11 is better than Melon's 2222 IMO though :watermelon:

Hook Up I like as a horse in the Mares Novice Hurdle as one good enough to be in the 3. Her additional experience and racing against the boys will be valuable when back in weaker company..... she's a solid place horse and will be a decent price with a decent win chance.
 
PaisleyClegg said:
RufusFlynn absolutely not, just an idea I had when thinking how I might start off the discussion. With multis/yankees I quite like having one or two that sort of anchor the bet so that at some point that day you have something to really get behind.

We are getting loads of good suggestions at bigger prices so I can already see this heading down the EW route.
With the EW bet, it's worth remembering that we need two 'winners' to get any sort of payout. At 20/1 and 1/4 odds we need two placed horses to come away with a return of just over 50%.

I was just having a play and does a blended approach work best a couple of 'Winners' and a couple of 'EW' shouts who obviously aren't without chance of actually getting their nose in front.
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Excellent - I normally like a bit of a banker leg in these sorts of bets too as a solid base with some bigger values place chances. Plenty of time for the discussion.

In the Ryanair - i think whatever Mullins runs should be a consideration (Min/Melon/Allaho/Tornado Flyer) as all likely good enough to place. obviously dependent on what the prices are looking like nearer the time of course....
 
PaisleyClegg said:
I would argue that 4 runs shows better consistency than 2 runs?
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Yeah you could argue that, I'd prefer two wins than 4 seconds if I'd backed them though....

For me Samcro is a better horse and a bigger price, Melon has only won 4 races out of 25.
Samcro has won 9 of his 17.

To be fair I've backed both, I like both, but when the one that wins (2x festival distance wins too!) is a bigger price, I think he's the better pick of the two.
 
Espoir De Romay in the Plate IF he gets 1 more run to qualify... His form cannot be ignored!
 
Hardy Eustace said:
This day has Gordon Elliot written all over it.

EA
TBO
SAMCRO
FURY ROAD
CONFLATED
RUN WILD FRED
QUEENS BROOK - (i am getting a bit yankee drunk now)
RWF

RETIRE!!! I am going to have to have some multiples with these in!
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That would be one impressive performance that!! Especially for Run Wild Fred to win two races in one day haha
 
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Shortlist taking shape nicely!

WIN:
Marsh - Envoi
Pretemps: The Bosses Oscar
Ryanair: Min , Allaho, Melon
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares Novice: Hook Up

EW:
Ryanair: Samcro, Melon, Tornado Flyer
Stayers: Fury Road
Mares Novice: Queens Brook, Hook Up
Plate: Midnight Shadow, Conflated
Kim Muir: Run Wild Fred
 
PaisleyClegg said:
Shortlist taking shape nicely!

WIN:
Marsh - Envoi
Pretemps: The Bosses Oscar
Ryanair: Min , Allaho, Melon
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares Novice: Hook Up

EW:
Ryanair: Samcro, Melon, Tornado Flyer
Stayers: Fury Road
Mares Novice: Queens Brook, Hook Up
Plate: Midnight Shadow, Conflated
Kim Muir: Run Wild Fred
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Fakir D'oudairies for the Ryanair may be interesting if he turns up for that race anyway.

Finest Evermore for the Mares Novice Hurdle as well, could be some E/W value.

And now for the broken record selections (which Quevega will love):

School Boy Hours for the Kim Muir should he make it to that race and Chatham Street Lad for the Plate.
 
Tornado Flyer is an interesting price @ 25/1 in the Ryanair. That very close second to Min in the John Durkan is very good form, and he beat Melon. Min was 12 seconds faster that day on heavy than he was the previous year on soft, so the time was good, and loads of money came for TF late - he went from 32 into 12 on the exchange 4 mins before off - it was an odd move that stood out like a sore thumb. The money said he'd go close or win, and that's exactly what happened (we couldn't see much). Thats a standout piece of 2m5f form this season and if I had to back Min @ 5 or TF @ 25 it would be an absolute no brainer. He's been pissed about with trips this season, doesnt stay 3 and not quick enough for 2. 2m5f around Cheltenham should be ideal and he was far from disgraced last year, or when third in the bumper. Cheltenham experience is important for Ryanair winners, they often win having previously failed at Cheltenham, and that applies here. I have always felt they think really highly of him at Willies and he's never managed to piece things together - I have added him 20/1 NRNB.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Fakir D'oudairies for the Ryanair may be interesting if he turns up for that race anyway.

Finest Evermore for the Mares Novice Hurdle as well, could be some E/W value.

And now for the broken record selections (which Quevega will love):

School Boy Hours for the Kim Muir should he make it to that race and Chatham Street Lad for the Plate.
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I'd agree with the first 3.

I'd take Bosses Oscar on off a rating of 151 but not sure what with.

Fury Road is a decent price in the stayers if Gordon shows his horses are running well.
 
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