DUBLIN - Snakes & Ladders

[SuperTiger]

Bapaume all the rage for the ERSG Arkle, as short as 3's now, was 8's.

Got the Bapaume and Honey double at 19/1 - just hope they both turn up.

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Amazing races to watch, but be tough seeing some of horses i have a great position on fall back

I'm trying to look at weekend as an opportunity to add some good value bets to the book and prob top up a few up....mostly using the PP/Sky specials to win and at festival

Think most likely value plays are Mullins horses, given stable was more off the pace generally a few weeks back

Horses i think worth looking at....

2m Novice:

Mt Leinster - 33s for Supreme.....143 latest RPR and previously close second to Easywork look ok form, which is only few pounds below Abacadabras....and just have a niggling doubt about fav even though he is best one in my book.....also remember how well regarded he was last season, but never happened

Asterion Forlonge - Not sure which race they will enter him in at festival, but expensive purchase and good first run, so might go in 2m6f race

Arkle:

Bapaume - lots money come for this horse and i like 25s special with PP....lots to find in ratings, but stable messages all positive...I like Cashback too, though seems to have drifted in betting

I think the big snake is Fakir.....can't have him at all for March as loses all the weight advantage and whilst a great jumper, i think horse is over-rated.....have a bit in book, but prepared for potential humble pie. Hoping Notebook is real deal as best in my book at 50s, plus a few doubles too....but expect a Mullins horse to emerge and if it is melon, think that will happen at Cheltenham where he is best, rather than weekend

Champion Hurdle:

This is one race where i dont think Mullins will have same success.....Honeysuckle all way for me and on to Champion Hurdle for the great mares shoot-out with Epatante.......though if ground decent Sharjah could run close......Supreme winners don't win Champion Hurdle and wish i hadn't been seduced into breaking that rule with wasted bets on Klassical dream

Look forward to amazing weekend and hope my book survives in reasonable state

 

[Quevega]

Big weekend coming up.

And some antepost bets are going to be looking very handsome (David Beckham like) on Sunday evening.

And some antepost bets are going to luck very ugly (Iain Dowie like) on Sunday evening.

Might be worth waiting for Final declarations but I'd be interested to hear peoples thoughts on who's gonna be a Beckham and who's gonna be a Dowie after the weekend

Who's going to enhance there Cheltenham prospects and who's going to reduce there chances ?

I'll wait till Final declarations and put my thoughts down.

Happy to put my first Dowie down now, before declarations. And Jockey bookings.

Bapaume - arkle

No fucking way.
Smacks of tipsters searching for value in what's perceived to be a weak division.

Smacks of Mullins trying to convert a horse with no natural speed into an arkle horse as the only one he's got that hasn't blotted his copybook is Cash Back who would have started the season in his reserve squad.

If Laurina had won the 2 miler at Christmas I guarantee Bapaume would not be running back over this trip.
And Melon would have been kept at 2 miles also had he not got beat by a four year old first time up.
And Tornado Flyer would have been running here had he not been exposed as not that good.
If they thought Bapaume would be suited to an arkle over fences they'd have known that in the Summer, nothing he's done has shown he's an arkle type, except for what others in the stable have not done.

Bapaume may jump well enough. but you've got to have gears as well, and this horse has just the one gear.
The race he won was full of stayers and he didn't exactly stretch away from them, and they missed a few fences out on the run in too.

Definite Dowie for me.

Could look a right twat if he wins at weekend.:highly_amused:

 

[darlojim]

Happy to put my first Dowie down now, before declarations. And Jockey bookings.

Bapaume - arkle

No fucking way.
Smacks of tipsters searching for value in what's perceived to be a weak division.

Smacks of Mullins trying to convert a horse with no natural speed into an arkle horse as the only one he's got that hasn't blotted his copybook is Cash Back who would have started the season in his reserve squad.

If Laurina had won the 2 miler at Christmas I guarantee Bapaume would not be running back over this trip.
And Melon would have been kept at 2 miles also had he not got beat by a four year old first time up.
And Tornado Flyer would have been running here had he not been exposed as not that good.
If they thought Bapaume would be suited to an arkle over fences they'd have known that in the Summer, nothing he's done has shown he's an arkle type, except for what others in the stable have not done.

Bapaume may jump well enough. but you've got to have gears as well, and this horse has just the one gear.
The race he won was full of stayers and he didn't exactly stretch away from them, and they missed a few fences out on the run in too.

Definite Dowie for me.

Could look a right twat if he wins at weekend.:highly_amused:

Totally agree with you here.. Can't believe theres money coming for him this weekend and he could be close to jt fav if it keeps going as it is. Notebooks form this season is faultless and yet people think he will blow out for one reason or another

 

[Quevega]

Big weekend coming up.

And some antepost bets are going to be looking very handsome (David Beckham like) on Sunday evening.

And some antepost bets are going to luck very ugly (Iain Dowie like) on Sunday evening.

Might be worth waiting for Final declarations but I'd be interested to hear peoples thoughts on who's gonna be a Beckham and who's gonna be a Dowie after the weekend

Who's going to enhance there Cheltenham prospects and who's going to reduce there chances ?

I'll wait till Final declarations and put my thoughts down.

First Beckham before decs too.

Honeysuckle - Irish champion hurdle

Quite simply, she has one rival in this, and that's Sharjah.
Hopefully the Henry Whittler Bromhead don't pull her out cos the water isn't the same as rain.
The race at the weekend is perfect for her as she can sit behind Petit Mouchoir and then take it up at the second last or just after. The speed I think she has should make it very difficult for Sharjah to do what Sharjah does and his challenge will probably be over before it's began.
I've had 8pts at 7/4 already after apples was declared for the galmoy. But will have more on the day with one of the specials for how many lengths she wins by. At least 5l but maybe more.

I'm assuming apples jade won't run. As that would upset the apple cart a little in terms of pace and shape of the race.

 

[Morley Street]

Totally agree with you here.. Can't believe theres money coming for him this weekend and he could be close to jt fav if it keeps going as it is. Notebooks form this season is faultless and yet people think he will blow out for one reason or another

The only horse that Notebook has beaten of any note ( :highly_amused: ) is Fakir and most people on here don’t expect him to be a serious player in this. The day after he finished tailed off in last year’s Ballymore, Bapaume finished close up in one of the best Stayers that we’ve had for a while, despite not seeing it out. His previous festival appearance saw him being placed in Defi’s Triumph. He may only have one gear but for me it’s a higher gear than Notebook is capable of producing.

 

[MadeinJapan]

First Beckham before decs too.

Honeysuckle - Irish champion hurdle

Quite simply, she has one rival in this, and that's Sharjah.
Hopefully the Henry Whittler Bromhead don't pull her out cos the water isn't the same as rain.
The race at the weekend is perfect for her as she can sit behind Petit Mouchoir and then take it up at the second last or just after. The speed I think she has should make it very difficult for Sharjah to do what Sharjah does and his challenge will probably be over before it's began.
I've had 8pts at 7/4 already after apples was declared for the galmoy. But will have more on the day with one of the specials for how many lengths she wins by. At least 5l but maybe more.

I'm assuming apples jade won't run. As that would upset the apple cart a little in terms of pace and shape of the race.

Christ. Have you got her in a double for the CH too then? If she steams this what odds for the CH? 6s to 3/1 fav?

 

[Quevega]

The only horse that Notebook has beaten of any note ( :highly_amused: ) is Fakir and most people on here don’t expect him to be a serious player in this. The day after he finished tailed off in last year’s Ballymore, Bapaume finished close up in one of the best Stayers that we’ve had for a while, despite not seeing it out. His previous festival appearance saw him being placed in Defi’s Triumph. He may only have one gear but for me it’s a higher gear than Notebook is capable of producing.

That's what this thread is all about.
Wrong and right
Handsome and Ugly
Snakes and ladders
Gears and no Gears.:highly_amused:

Bumpaume:loyal:

 

[Quevega]

Christ. Have you got her in a double for the CH too then? If she steams this what odds for the CH? 6s to 3/1 fav?

Already backed her in one or two doubles and 40-1 outright.
If she wins at weekend, she would have more credentials than Epatante, who may just be very quick and the flat track win at christmas not as good as it looked in the context of a champion hurdle contender (don't subscribe to this fully myself)

But Honeysuckle would have the better overall chance (IF) she wins at weekend.

The worry is her not running (Dublin) at all if I'm honest.

 

[Ray]

To be fair the reason why some like bapaume for the arkle is because its trained by mullins, lets have it right its shown nothing over 2 miles and shown nothing to say its a better nag then notebook

 

[Morley Street]

To be fair the reason why some like bapaume for the arkle is because its trained by mullins, lets have it right its shown nothing over 2 miles and shown nothing to say its a better nag then notebook

That’s not ‘fair’ though is it Ray, it’s just short sighted.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

To be fair the reason why some like bapaume for the arkle is because its trained by mullins, lets have it right its shown nothing over 2 miles and shown nothing to say its a better nag then notebook

Yeah, that's the real reason Ray....top insight :dejection:

 

[Splinterboy82]

Everyone’s entitled to their view - I’ve already stated on a few posts why I like Bapaume & backed him accordingly when he was healthy double figures. I do however think that the Mullins factor does have to be brought into it somewhere as the yard has so much talent to gauge against, it won’t all be hype. Sure, there’s a bit of a snowball effect on his price this week & he’s shorter now than his bare form says he should be but there are some stats that keep on producing over & over again that are not just fluke.

1) Top rated hurdler going over fences. Whilst Notebook looks a different horse over the larger obstacles, his hurdle rating & previous Cheltenham run do still leave a question mark. Fakirs weight for age & last time out ride also shouldn’t be forgotten

2) Mullins at Cheltenham & in the Arkle. The way he gets them to peak is better than anyone, that has to factored in whether you like him or loathe him.

This horse Bapaume reminds me so much of My Way De Solzen & Footpad to a lesser extent in that he was just short of top class over further over hurdles 155 plus & will have the ability to pop away tracking the leaders over a fast run 2 miles, ultimately outstaying his rivals - I’m more than ok to be wrong & cant speak for all but I’m certainly not just backing because of the Mullins factor BUT it shouldn’t just be dismissed either IMO

 

[Morley Street]

Everyone’s entitled to their view - I’ve already stated on a few posts why I like Bapaume & backed him accordingly when he was healthy double figures. I do however think that the Mullins factor does have to be brought into it somewhere as the yard has so much talent to gauge against, it won’t all be hype. Sure, there’s a bit of a snowball effect on his price this week & he’s shorter now than his bare form says he should be but there are some stats that keep on producing over & over again that are not just fluke.

1) Top rated hurdler going over fences. Whilst Notebook looks a different horse over the larger obstacles, his hurdle rating & previous Cheltenham run do still leave a question mark. Fakirs weight for age & last time out ride also shouldn’t be forgotten

2) Mullins at Cheltenham & in the Arkle. The way he gets them to peak is better than anyone, that has to factored in whether you like him or loathe him.

This horse Bapaume reminds me so much of My Way De Solzen & Footpad to a lesser extent in that he was just short of top class over further over hurdles 155 plus & will have the ability to pop away tracking the leaders over a fast run 2 miles, ultimately outstaying his rivals - I’m more than ok to be wrong & cant speak for all but I’m certainly not just backing because of the Mullins factor BUT it shouldn’t just be dismissed either IMO

Well said but see you’re not called SplinterBoy for nothing :highly_amused:

 

[TCH29]

To be fair the reason why some like bapaume for the arkle is because its trained by mullins, lets have it right its shown nothing over 2 miles and shown nothing to say its a better nag then notebook

To be fair, you can make a case (albeit a weak one) through Dunvegan that Cash Back could put up a real challenge to Notebook. However all the money for the DRF 2m Chase is coming for Bapaume. Does this mean the stable know he is much better than Cash Back over just 2m??

 

[SuperTiger]

To be fair, you can make a case (albeit a weak one) through Dunvegan that Cash Back could put up a real challenge to Notebook. However all the money for the DRF 2m Chase is coming for Bapaume. Does this mean the stable know he is much better than Cash Back over just 2m??

To be fair all the money came for Yukon Lil at the weekend and got the favoured jockey and look how that went :dejection:

 

[Splinterboy82]

Well said but see you’re not called SplinterBoy for nothing :highly_amused:

Don’t always make a million sitting on the fence but certainly don’t go broke either! Pick you punches (or in this case selections & prices) accordingly & don’t get dragged onto too many hype trains Morley! Always worked well for me :stupid:

 

[Pendil]

Looks from the betting that Gordon might be running Easwork against Aba 9/2 from 7/1

 

[archie]

Dowie's finest moment. I was there!

 

[Quevega]

All fair comment Splinterboy.
I've dismissed it with reasons why.
And if I'm wrong I'll laugh it off (wrong more than right in this game, even if you make money)

But aside from him being trained by Mullins and having a high hurdles rating, and being similar to one or two other horses.
He achieved his highest hurdle rating on his 18th attempt, and spent 16 runs rated at or below 151.

What is it in the horse and it's form/runs that makes you think it'll compete at grade one level over 2 miles ?
What;s he been hiding from us ?
It's definitely not speed IMO and his jumping is not even 1 length a fence better than Notebook.

To add,
Notebook has achieved a rating of 158 after 9 runs under rules.
It looks to me like he just wanted fences to show us what he's got.