• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Close Bros Handicap Chase

Speaker Connolly has a much better chance IMO

Will be bottom weight if he gets in (which doesn't matter if he doesn't as money would come back) He beat Poker Party 5L in receipt of 1lb when Poker Party was rated 116, however Poker Party has won twice since, off 119 and 128 and has gone up another 10lbs to 138.

given that the Irish have been given between 4 and 7 lbs, we could put Poker Party at between 142-145 UK rating.

Beating him 5L getting lb, puts Speaker Connolly bang there with a UK mark of 139 - worst case scenario he's 3 lbs well in, and best case is 7lbs...

Other little positives are:

With connections that have won the race before
Handled 'the big occasion' well at Dublin Racing Festival (Won)
DRF winners showed no ill effects backing up at Cheltenham


I am looking at the 20/1 and I cannot resist.5 places 22/1 with WH will do actually - no other entry, if he gets balloted out it'll be a non runner and I'll ride my luck with injury
 
Last edited:
Kevloaf said:
What am I missing with Riders Onthe Storm? Has he shown any form whatsoever to say he's better than a 145 horse? (which is what a winner of this race would hopefully be)

He was absolutely thumped in the grade 1, beaten 21L - so the 3rd is a little flattering? (Jamie Lynch uses this as a positive sound byte)

He beat Impact Factor who was rated 134 by 1.25L, and then Impact Factor was beaten 19L by Poker Party (franking Speaker Connolly's chances IMO but that's for another post)...


So does it all hinge on Impact Factor splitting Cilaos Emery and Duc Des Genivres BEFORE they met?



I might be missing something obvious, so feel free to point it out... but 10/1 NRNB or 12/1, no thank-you?
Click to expand...

You need to watch the Grade 1 where he was beat by 21l and then decide. A lot of the confidence is by the zero effort JJ showed on the horse when Getabird & Hardline went past him, basically did not move a muscle. It didn't go unnoticed by anyone.

Would not judge him on his 2m runs myself, he's not running over that trip in this race, and was too short.

Think Andy Holding him had him quite on a list, but can't remember what they list was for, only that it was a positive one.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
You need to watch the Grade 1 where he was beat by 21l and then decide. A lot of the confidence is by the zero effort JJ showed on the horse when Getabird & Hardline went past him, basically did not move a muscle. It didn't go unnoticed by anyone.

Would not judge him on his 2m runs myself, he's not running over that trip in this race, and was too short.

Think Andy Holding him had him quite on a list, but can't remember what they list was for, only that it was a positive one.
Click to expand...

A little disrespectful to assume I haven't watched the race back more than once :p

Is it not a little bit too much of a conspiracy theory that he purposfully didn't try and go with them? He hadn't moved but he knew his horse was beat, so he's just coasted home? It's not BAD but if that is why people are getting jiggy I will be dead against him. You've basically got absolutely no clue what he finds off the bridle - which wouldn't be a positive.


I'm not knocking the horse, or anyone that's backed him, as I'm sure Andy Holding and Jamie Lynch do perfectly well.... what I am saying though is I don't see what the obvious case is to get him at 10/1 for this race, based on what we've seen.

I can also see he has a really high cruising speed... which is a positive, but he's just shooooooort in terms of handicapping. More to it than that though as I like to point out! :)
 
Last edited:
Kevloaf said:
A little disrespectful to assume I haven't watched the race back more than once :p

Is it not a little bit too much of a conspiracy theory that he purposfully didn't try and go with them? He hadn't moved but he knew his horse was beat, so he's just coasted home? It's not BAD but if that is why people are getting jiggy I will be dead against him. You've basically got absolutely no clue what he finds off the bridle - which wouldn't be a positive.


I'm not knocking the horse, or anyone that's backed him, as I'm sure Andy Holding and Jamie Lynch do perfectly well.... what I am saying though is I don't see what the obvious case is to get him at 10/1 for this race, based on what we've seen.

I can also see he has a really high cruising speed... which is a positive, but he's just shooooooort in terms of handicapping. More to it than that though as I like to point out! :)
Click to expand...

I assumed you would have tbf, but as you were so perplexed and said he got hammered in the Grade 1, which he did, but without actually trying when push come to shove, that you maybe needed to re-visit the race :devilish:

I think on his last try, when winning over 2m, we can see he finds enough off the bridle. I find it strange he's only been tried twice beyond 2m, one has been a grade 2 novice hurdle and the other a grade 1 beginners chase, setting up for a handicap plot? Possibly this one?

He was 2 lengths behind Hardline in a listed novice hurdle, so he has a level of ability. On breeding he should appreciate the step up in trip. Not just Jamie Lynch & Andy Holding, I have heard his name banded about by others too on previews/podcasts, so the 'plot' certainly hasn't gone under the radar, if of course there even is one.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
You need to watch the Grade 1 where he was beat by 21l and then decide. A lot of the confidence is by the zero effort JJ showed on the horse when Getabird & Hardline went past him, basically did not move a muscle. It didn't go unnoticed by anyone.

Would not judge him on his 2m runs myself, he's not running over that trip in this race, and was too short.

Think Andy Holding him had him quite on a list, but can't remember what they list was for, only that it was a positive one.
Click to expand...

Well summed up CoD. That grade 1 was when he caught my eye. He has such a high cruising speed that I'd be surprised if he wasn't last off the bridle and he won his last race like an extremely well handicapped horse.

He needs to be running over further than two miles to show his best and it's no coincidence that he's stepping up in trip at Cheltenham.

My worry about the close brothers is how he'll go in a big field handicap, it can be a very rough race and I'm not sure he'd appreciate being knocked about. With the JLT looking like cutting up, I still think he'd go very well in that race, for all he has a heap to find on the ratings.
 
Kevloaf said:
Speaker Connolly has a much better chance IMO

Will be bottom weight if he gets in (which doesn't matter if he doesn't as money would come back) He beat Poker Party 5L in receipt of 1lb when Poker Party was rated 116, however Poker Party has won twice since, off 119 and 128 and has gone up another 10lbs to 138.

given that the Irish have been given between 4 and 7 lbs, we could put Poker Party at between 142-145 UK rating.

Beating him 5L getting lb, puts Speaker Connolly bang there with a UK mark of 139 - worst case scenario he's 3 lbs well in, and best case is 7lbs...

Other little positives are:

With connections that have won the race before
Handled 'the big occasion' well at Dublin Racing Festival (Won)
DRF winners showed no ill effects backing up at Cheltenham


I am looking at the 20/1 and I cannot resist.5 places 22/1 with WH will do actually - no other entry, if he gets balloted out it'll be a non runner and I'll ride my luck with injury
Click to expand...

Kev,
I put SC up some time ago. He does have 4 entries. Is this your preference??
 
Trainer said in the irish field today that the Kim
Muir is the preference still 25s with 366
 
doctorwu said:
Kev,
I put SC up some time ago. He does have 4 entries. Is this your preference??
Click to expand...

Muswell said:
Trainer said in the irish field today that the Kim
Muir is the preference still 25s with 366
Click to expand...

Wow, way too much rum.

I've split stakes NRNB and with WH.

Will back Kim Muir NRNB though, thanks Muswell.

This would be my preference as no idea if he'll stay the trip at further but will pay to find out.
 
Speaker Connolly, Hardline, Ornua and the Drinmore form all working out. There's a horse linking all that who may go for the Grand Annual off 152.
 
archie said:
Speaker Connolly, Hardline, Ornua and the Drinmore form all working out. There's a horse linking all that who may go for the Grand Annual off 152.
Click to expand...

and runs in your colours Archie. Is the Grand Annual the plan?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
and runs in your colours Archie. Is the Grand Annual the plan?
Click to expand...

It's a plan. Willie is going through all the handicaps this week but he'll almost certainly get an entry for a graded race at Navan on the 18th. Entries will be out before decs for the GA and may make his mind up for him.
 
archie said:
It's a plan. Willie is going through all the handicaps this week but he'll almost certainly get an entry for a graded race at Navan on the 18th. Entries will be out before decs for the GA and may make his mind up for him.
Click to expand...

Cheers Archie, and best of luck.
 
Good news though, had gone very quiet on Lough Derg spirit
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom