I’ve been doing a bit of groundwork on this race. The last 5 renewals:
2018
OR range 137-145
1st Mister Whitaker (137)
2nd Rather Be (143)
3rd Rocklander (142)
2017
OR range 137-142 – the race was a 0-140 but Zamdy Man ran with a 2lb penalty for a win at the end of Feb.
1st Tully East (138)
2nd Gold Present (138)
3rd Two Taffs (137)
2016
OR range 136-140
1st Ballyalton (140)
2nd Bouvreuil (139)
3rd Double Shuffle (138)
2015
OR range 134-140
1st Irish Cavalier (137)
2nd Thomas Crapper (134)
3rd Generous Ransom (136)
2014
OR range 132-140
1st Present View (137)
2nd Attaglance (137)
3rd Pendra (137)
Crucial to note that it became a 0-145 in 2018 – so all these instances of mid-130s horses getting in the race are mis-leading. I would argue that the only reason 137 got into the race last year was due to the heavy ground causing a greater number of defections than would be expected in a ‘normal’ year. The preceding 3 years the range was 5lb/4lb/6lb. And the 5lb range in 2017 is mis-leading because Zamdy Man ran under a penalty – the range that year would have been only 3lb. I’d suggest that you’ll be lucky to get in with a rating of less than 140.
It is a race that the Brits have tended to dominate, although the Irish had a very good year in 2017 with 3 of the top 5 (from 6 representatives). However, from 6 representatives in 2018 the best they could manage was 8th.
Not a massive trends race but 11 of the 14 winners were aged 6 or 7. No 6yo had actually won the race until 2013 but now 4 of the last 6 have been won by a 6yo. All bar 1 of the 14 winners had ran in the last 45 days. And as with most races, previous festival form has been a definite plus.
With such a compressed handicap and the guesswork involved in what the British handicapper will do with the Irish, I am going to focus on the UK challenge for now. I suppose the beauty of there being such rigid qualifying criteria for this race means it’s not actually that difficult (with a bit of graft) to narrow down the likely candidates…
So, I have been through every UK novice chaser currently rated 139-145 – there are 65 of them.
- I’ve then removed those who have only had 1 start over fences. Trying to get 2 more in now is nigh on impossible and certainly wouldn’t look like an ideal prep. This leaves 55.
- I’ve then removed a further 13 who either have other confirmed targets or have very obviously taken alternative paths – the most high profile in this cull being Ibis De Rheu, Mr Whipped, Talkischeap, Maria’s Benefit, Chesterfield, and Impulsive Star.
- I’ve then looked at those who, whilst it’s conceivable they came here, just look either unsuited by the trip or are totally out of form. This removes 23 horses, the likes of Mister Malarky/Brave Eagle/Now McGinty/Debece (need further), Caid Du Lin/Capeland/Ballywood/Destrier (need shorter), Poetic Rhythm/Amour De Nuit/Slate House (out of sorts).
This leaves me with 19 feasible runners. A much more manageable number.
Crucial Role – Nice performance at Uttoxter in Dec and was vying for favouritism with Jerrysback at Haydock last time but was a bit disappointing and it transpired he broke a blood vessel which has now happened in 2 of his last 3 runs. Clearly talented but that has to be worry. He’s entered in the Scilly Isles.
Drinks Interval – Highest RPRs have been at 3m though did win over intermediate trip in July. She was kept really busy over the summer and early season but given a break since well beaten behind Lady Buttons in Dec. Looks a little exposed now.
Highway One O One – Some good form this season and I had him down as very much a 2 miler until the good performance over 2m4f behind Kildisart at the weekend. That is a decent pointer to this trial and he would go here with a nice chance but I can't help but think there will be a couple too good/less exposed, particularly with him going up a couple of lbs for that effort.
Jenkins – 2 solid C&D runs this season, cliff horse for some but has a pretty solid profile for this and Nicky’s record in the race is excellent. Has to make the shortlist.
Le Breuil – Closely matched with Jenkins, was a shade disappointing last time out and looking a little exposed to me now.
Monbeg Legend – Mopped up in summer novices which saw his rating rise sharply. Did ok at Chelt in Oct behind Cubomania and given a break since. Not convinced he's up to this company though.
Red Indian – 3rd in Lanzarote and 6th in Coral Cup last year. Won well on chase debut, then was best of the rest in the Kauto Star, before UR at 1/5 last time out. Not ideal coming in on the back of that but he's a talented horse, with some festival form, and is entitled to lots of respect.
Secret Investor – Has run into a couple of good ones (Bags Groove and OK Corral) so far over fences. Should be more to come from him but needs 1 more run to qualify and it might be hard to find a race that avoids scuppering his mark as he's right on the limit. If he manages that, he’s a very interesting contender.
Atlanta Ablaze – Improved out of all recognition for wind surgery in the summer. Went up 12lb for thrashing Jester Jet 2 starts ago but then UR last time behind Lady Buttons. Hard to know where the progression stops but this race is a whole different challenge to those she's faced.
White Moon – Best performance this season came over C&D when falling at the last. Bit disappointing last twice but they were both over 3 miles and he retains lots of potential.
Jester Jet – Nice mare who has racked up a number of 2nds this season over varying trips. She won a good handicap hurdle at Aintree last spring so is not averse to hustle and bustle against the boys and you'd give her some sort of a chance but expect her to come up short.
Springtown Lake – Not many miles on the clock and 3 decent efforts sent chasing this year. Looked a non-stayer trying 3m last time but did well the time before when beaten less than 2L by Mr Whipped trying to give him 5lb.
The Russian Doyen – Almost went in the “doesn’t stay” camp and whilst his 2 tries at 2m 4f have been disappointing it wouldn’t surprise me to see him ultimately do well over further. Has won 2 out of 3 this season and still lots of potential as a chaser. The question mark over the trip as well as the disappointing effort at Cheltenham this season is enough to put me off though.
Movewiththetimes – PU in the Plate last year and failed to complete in 2 runs this season. Not seen since November but has been entered up in the novice chases so must be ok. Would expect to see him turn up here and Nicholls might have worked his magic on him but he has an awful lot to prove now.
Style De Garde – Needs another chase start (possibly 2 if the Refused doesn’t count?) and went back over hurdles latest. Talented but got his own ideas and is unproven over more than 2m. I nearly cut him out in the earlier categories but if he was to make an appearance this month in 2 ½ mile novice chase I’d have to take notice.
The Unit – Did well in the summer but looks exposed.
Castafiore – Improving mare who ran a massive career best last time beating Jerrysback 5L. Hard to crab that form with the likes of Le Breuil in behind who has been Mr consistent all season. It might be dangerous to underestimate her, although she won't have the mares allowance to fall back on.
Dell Oro – Decent novice hurdler last season and done well in 3 chase starts this season. 8L 4th to Glen Forsa at Kempton and followed that up with a win at Huntingdon. One of the likelier ones and we might see him this weekend.
Pacific De Baune – Would have been very much of interest but seems to have reverted back to hurdles after UR at Doncaster. Needs another chase start to qualify and, as with Style De Garde above, if he was to make an appearance in the next couple of weeks over fences he’d be a very interesting one.
My shortlist from the above (with best available price):
Jenkins 28/1
Red Indian 33/1
Secret Investor 16/1
White Moon 25/1
Springtown Lake 25/1
Dell Oro 33/1
So all this chat and I haven’t yet mentioned the market leader, or my only bet in the race so far, so let’s correct those 2 things…
Glen Forsa – Rated just 138 currently and needs 1 more run to not only raise his mark but also to hit the 3-run criteria. Unbeaten in 2 starts over fences though and could still be ahead of the handicapper. The market was always going to latch onto him from an early stage due to connections, but 8/1 is not an enticing price as things stand in a race so tightly competitive. I can't envisage him being loads shorter on the day.
Lough Derg Spirit – Currently rated 135 but won easily on Monday and awaiting a revised mark next week. Has festival form with a 6th in last year’s MP and the owners have said this is the target. Put up on this thread by COD when 20s was available NRNB but I missed that. I have taken 20s with B365 and will see what the handicapper does.
For the purposes of this exercise I have focussed on the UK challenge but I will give a mention to a few of the Irish who I am keeping an eye on with a view to this race:
Cubomania – Was given a UK mark of 147 when entered up last week so distinctly unlikely to get in unless he does something this weekend to warrant a drop. A C&D winner already this season and if he doesn’t get in here he could be one for the Plate.
Articulum – Irish mark of 138 would potentially translate very well to the frame of this race. He’s another one entered for everything this weekend though so all could change depending on how he gets on. Raced only over 2m this season but came from PTPs and won two 2m 3f bumpers so there’s every chance he can prove himself to be just as effective over further.
Mind’s Eye – Another with an IR of 138, he was beaten a long way in the Ballymore last year but was then 4th to Lalor at Aintree. Started out well over fences but has been found out at the top level. Has raced mainly at 2m but has won over 2m 4f and would be of interest here or the Grand Annual.
Gun Digger – Put 3 good runs together in beginners chases before beaten a long way in a Grade 3 behind Winter Escape. Was given 139 when entered up at Chelt last week and I’m surprised he isn’t more widely priced up for this.
Ben Dundee – Ran Delta Work close at the start of the season before winning comfortably at Punchestown. Wheels have come off slightly since upped to graded company with a PU and an F followed by 6th of 7 in the same Grade 3 as Gun Digger. Would be no surprise to see Gordon get him back on track though.
Discorama – Discussed widely on here over the past few days and, whilst looking likely to go for one of the Graded races, if he could sneak in at the top then you’d have to be interested. Looks to want further than this but could outclass them all in a race like this.
Moon Over Germany – Was off for 2 and a half years before good placed efforts this season behind Getabird and Paloma Blue over 2m. Only raced once over 2m 4f over hurdles but that earned his best ever RPR when finishing a close 4th behind Woodland Opera and Supasundae (Balko Des Flos in behind). Needs another run to qualify but he still looks to have plenty of potential and we all know how much the owner likes a Cheltenham winner!
At the NRNB prices, Mind’s Eye 33/1, Ben Dundee 20/1 and Discorama 20/1, all have appeal. Bet 365s 25/1 for Moon Over Germany is tempting if I was to see an entry in the next couple of weeks.
Lots to think about but just 1 bet so far:
Lough Derg Spirit 20/1 (with cash-out option pending news from the handicapper)
