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Chelters 2016 Antepost bets

I mentioned previously that Thistlecrack was one of my festival bankers, it's a shame it's taken unfortunate circumstances for others to think the same, glad i got him at 5/2 and above in several multiples, unfortunately some were with the likes of Shaneshill, Bellshill and up for review, so hope those three can turn it around from there last runs
 
What price do we think Douvan goes off on the day? And what do you think the best price we will get on the lead up in bookie specials?
 
What are your live contenders with value in price that have previous fest form from last year?
 
I've been watching last year's festival over and over in recent days because if this ground dries up it will be the best form line to go on in my opinion.

Cole Harden, Shaneshill and Sizing John from the graded races. Got my eye on a few for the handicaps as well - just waiting for NRNB before I get involved.
 
Forgot to say, the ground changed on the Friday so I've paid less attention to those races
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I've been watching last year's festival over and over in recent days because if this ground dries up it will be the best form line to go on in my opinion.

Cole Harden, Shaneshill and Sizing John from the graded races. Got my eye on a few for the handicaps as well - just waiting for NRNB before I get involved.
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I can't agree with you any more F_M, I would throw RTR in the mix if the ground dries up in the graded. A line went straight through the heavy ground Irish for me.
 
I am struggling to see which race Taglietelle will be running in. Does anyone have an idea or can find out for us?
 
loveracing said:
I am struggling to see which race Taglietelle will be running in. Does anyone have an idea or can find out for us?
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I've not seen a target nominated but interesting that they qualified for the Pertemps last time out - where Richard Johnson said after the race he thought they would have been close to winning without an error 3 out.
 
Cashew King said:
I've not seen a target nominated but interesting that they qualified for the Pertemps last time out - where Richard Johnson said after the race he thought they would have been close to winning without an error 3 out.
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Thats right CK, he was top weight, swinging when mistake 3 out cost him. I was on him that day and will be all over him next time he runs.

The problem with the Pertemps is he will guarantee to carry top weight. Though I think Fingal Bay won off top weight.
 
Taglietelle is one of the handicap horses I have an eye on. I'm sure GE has said he's still unexposed over 3 miles so that could mean the Pertemps is the plan. He ran a binder in the Coral and then won at Aintree. Spring ground looks to be the key to him.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Taglietelle is one of the handicap horses I have an eye on. I'm sure GE has said he's still unexposed over 3 miles so that could mean the Pertemps is the plan. He ran a binder in the Coral and then won at Aintree. Spring ground looks to be the key to him.
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So you think he will definitely go to the Fest F_M?

I've lumped on him for the WH nrnb for place money and also 50/1 without Thistlecrack. But I am tempted to go in on the Pertemps if that's his real target.
 
I think he'll be heading for the Pertemps. It might be worth waiting for NRNB though, just in case!
 
Ruby

The disappointment of Faugheen’s injury is still raw in the memory but this is sport at the highest level and we have to accept these things will happen.

I suppose it’s no different to a soccer player pulling their hamstring, or a rugby player picking up a muscle injury, and it’s just unfortunate that he and Killultagh Vic are the ones from our team that will miss Cheltenham.

It also reiterated the issues of ante-post betting. Punters must really ask whether or not they were getting value in backing these sort of horses – short-priced ones – so far in advance of the Festival.

There may have been some non-runner no-bet concessions on the singles but Faugheen, in particular, I suspect was a cornerstone of many multiples.

I really don’t understand ante-post betting, unless you’re getting very big prices. At these short odds, many of the horses will likely be the same price or even longer on the day.

And then there’s the fact it’s another three weeks before the Festival. So much can still happen between now and then.

Think back to last year’s Rugby World Cup.

If you backed Ireland before the tournament, the one you backed was not the same one beaten in the quarter-final by Argentina – there were an awful lot of injuries.

That may be the unfortunate vagaries of sport, but it highlights the need for punters to get real value when placing an ante-post bet.
 
Today I took a PP "Special": UDS in the QM, VVM in the Mares and Bristol de Mai in the JLT. Enhanced odds of 24/1.

I can't see UDS getting beaten if he gets round. It's looking increasingly like AP won't be in the Mares race and I'd be fairly confident of VVM if so. Which leaves BDM.... I was really impressed with the recent run, jumped beautifully.

I've only had a few quid on it but wondered whether you think it's a decent bet? After Faugheen's withdrawal earlier this week most of my antepost bets are dead. I promised myself I wouldn't bet again until 15th March but I couldn't resist!
 
Coneygme said:
Today I took a PP "Special": UDS in the QM, VVM in the Mares and Bristol de Mai in the JLT. Enhanced odds of 24/1.

I can't see UDS getting beaten if he gets round. It's looking increasingly like AP won't be in the Mares race and I'd be fairly confident of VVM if so. Which leaves BDM.... I was really impressed with the recent run, jumped beautifully.

I've only had a few quid on it but wondered whether you think it's a decent bet? After Faugheen's withdrawal earlier this week most of my antepost bets are dead. I promised myself I wouldn't bet again until 15th March but I couldn't resist!
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It's a good offer Coney, the first 2 are basically bankers if they turn up, though I still think GLV is more value at 10's if he runs in the JLT with the ground to suit and decent track record, not to mention his 7L win over BDM when giving 9lbs. Unless BDM has improved in leaps and bounds I find GLV the one to be on based on value. Just my opinion though. ;)
 
loveracing said:
It's a good offer Coney, the first 2 are basically bankers if they turn up, though I still think GLV is more value at 10's if he runs in the JLT with the ground to suit and decent track record, not to mention his 7L win over BDM when giving 9lbs. Unless BDM has improved in leaps and bounds I find GLV the one to be on based on value. Just my opinion though. ;)
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I can't argue with your logic but I hope you're wrong  Quite a few people seem keen on GLV.

Was it me or did the commentator on Channel 4 today mention the JLT for Different Gravey? 25/1 with PP
 
Coneygme said:
I can't argue with your logic but I hope you're wrong  Quite a few people seem keen on GLV.

Was it me or did the commentator on Channel 4 today mention the JLT for Different Gravey? 25/1 with PP
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According to Henderson it won't be over fences until next season:

Henderson said: "He was meant to go chasing. That has flummoxed me a bit as it has landed me in no man's land except to looking forward to going novice chasing next season.

"We would have to think about the World Hurdle. He won well at Ayr then an hour later we got a call from the stables saying he was seriously lame and he stayed in Edinburgh for a couple of weeks.

"We eventually got him home. He has come in late and started late. He has schooled late but he has been brilliant over fences but it is too late to switch now."
 
I appreciate that it's not the thread, but I was quoted 43/1 for a £20 (max stakes) double on Min for the 2017 Arkle with Douvan for the 2017 Champion Chase.

It's ludicrously early, but if they both hack up next month, that price surely collapses.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Taglietelle is one of the handicap horses I have an eye on. I'm sure GE has said he's still unexposed over 3 miles so that could mean the Pertemps is the plan. He ran a binder in the Coral and then won at Aintree. Spring ground looks to be the key to him.
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http://donnmcclean.com/2016/02/07/taglietelle-2/
Taglietelle
Taglietelle put up a good performance to finish third in the Pertemps qualifier at Musselburgh last Sunday.
Weak in the market beforehand on the newly rain-softened ground, Gordon Elliott’s horse was held up in rear through the early stages of the race. He made nice progress around the home turn, and moved up easily on the outside early in the home straight, but a bad mistake at the third last flight halted his forward momentum. Moved back towards the inside after that, he was only eighth of the 10 runners jumping the second last, but he stayed on well from there over the last and up the run-in to take third place behind Cup Final and Warriors Tale.
Taglietelle has been mixing it in top company this winter. He finished third in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan in early November, beaten just four lengths by Arctic Fire and Monksland, giving the pair of them 3lb, and he ran well in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in November, he finished just six and a half lengths behind the same Arctic Fire off level weights. He was well beaten in the Long Walk Hurdle, but that was on very soft ground.
He should be seen to better effect now as the ground gets better in the spring. He is a spring horse. His record in March and April under all codes reads 1451341. He ran a cracker to finish fourth in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last year, beaten a total of a length, and he followed up by winning the three-mile handicap hurdle at Aintree. His official mark now is only 5lb higher now than he was for that win, and he will be of interest again at Cheltenham and Aintree.
7th February 2016
 
stephensmith84 said:
I appreciate that it's not the thread, but I was quoted 43/1 for a £20 (max stakes) double on Min for the 2017 Arkle with Douvan for the 2017 Champion Chase.

It's ludicrously early, but if they both hack up next month, that price surely collapses.
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Funnily enough I was Thinking about this exact same bet yesterday but couldn't see prices. Which bookies was this with?
 
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