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Cheltenham Nap/Lay/ EW

Odddog said:
That you Ste? Thought I recognised the thread subject. All good buddy, 606 died a death so I decided to join this VERY learned circle (y)(y)
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You guessed right mate! Looking forward to Cheltenham, heading into what Fergie termed 'Squeeky Bum Time'. Looks likely to be an open festival, not too many shorties this time.
 
Big Zeb said:
You guessed right mate! Looking forward to Cheltenham, heading into what Fergie termed 'Squeeky Bum Time'. Looks likely to be an open festival, not too many shorties this time.
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Yeah I'm going back to the UK to watch it all live on TV with my old man. He's 83 now and the old bones won't get him to the races anymore but we do love to have a few bets and a few beers with the races (y)
 
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Nap - Teahupoo
Lay - The New Lion
E/W - Full Of Life
 
Nap - Teahupoo (SH)
Lay - Dinoblue (MC)
E/W - Spinningayarn (AB)
 
Nap- Old Park Star
Lay- The New Lion
E/W- Irish Panther
 
Lulamba (Nap)
Majborough (Lay)
Le Conquiere 14/1 (E/W)

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Couldn’t believe how much confidence the market was when Lulamba ran the last day despite going up into open company, ground concerns and the level of noise made about his ‘pace’ and ‘jumping’. He continued to be very strong in the market, as if defeat was out of the question - that took me by surprise. I agree and would love to see Lulamba jump quicker during the first half of the race, but I don’t see the arkle being much more though we or ran faster than what he has already faced at Newbury or Sandown. Maybe heart over head here, and we may see a fair few putting Lulamba down as a lay on here, so happy to go against and nap him lol
Kopek, I’ve always been concerned about his mentally and he’s prep has been interrupted. Romeo will run below par, raced far too many times this season. Kargese isn’t at the level. Lulamba to win ugly but wins by 3 lengths. Lulamba is my nap bet for the King George and next years Gold Cup ;-)

Majborough needs too much to go his way to put in a good performance. Not many win a QM when the clatter one, and it only takes one to out them out of rhythm. See Jonbon. Annoyed I didn’t back antepost at start of season, he’s too short now so will take him on

British mares do well in this race, and thought Le Conquiere had a very good profile for the novice mares, and ran a good race last time out in open company. I think she may be overlooked abit here as he lost at Ascot, she only lost by a small amount against experience mares. I do feel the Irish novice mares tend to get all of the attention, but the English trained mares have a good record in this. 14/1 feels too big.

I’ll post another one of these a week out, be interesting if my views change
 
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Nap …Lossiemouth
Lay …lulamba
EW … spinningayarn AB and Secret Force FW
 
NAP: Wodhooh - Mares Hurdle. Think she wins even if Lossiemouth turns up.
LAY: Jeriko Du Reponet - Kim Muir. Don't think hes shown enough since chasing and jumping will be put to the test in a big field.
E/W: Only By Night - Champion Chase form of last year's Arkle is rock solid and I'm willing to forgive the bad run at Xmas.
 
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Nap - Majborough - Champion chase
Lay - Kopek des bordes - Arkle
Ew - Le conquiere - Mares novice
 
Wayward Lad said:
Welonlyhavedone pulled up in two of his last three last races - understand the form with Ill Sort That and also the Zeus Power race, but I am intrigued RR as to why you have you kept the faith, particularly after his last race?
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The cheltenham run was during the height of cromwells poor form, and he was a big drifter pre race, i assume because of the poor stable form or because he wasn't trying that day, or both. The fact he's still been entered after his last poor run makes me think it was by design, just a run of any sort to qualify.

Theres more than enough in his other three runs to make him interesting to me as long as his mark is in the sort of range i expect. Was a big drifter on his fourth run too but still ran very well under tender enough handling if I remember correct.

Lot of guess work involved obviously as with most handicap bets, have to assume there was valid reasons for the two poor ones. But he's with the right trainer to make me think those poor runs, or at least one of them, may have been by design. Right sort of price to take a chance at too.
 
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