Cheltenham Nap/Lay/ EW

[Big Zeb]

Only three weeks away, show your cards gentlemen
Narcisco Has NAP
Lulamba Lay
Jinko Blue EW (Coral Cup)

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kopek Des Bordes (Nap)
Teahupoo (Lay)
Wendrock (Pertemps or Martin Pipe)

 

[Speedy17]

NAP - Old Park Star
Lay - Dinoblue
EW - Blaze The Way (Ultima)

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Nap - skylight hustle (turners)
Lay - majborough
E/W sixandahalf (county)

 

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Nap - Narciso Has
Lay - Brighterdaysahead
EW - David's Well (Grand Annual)

 

[riccirich]

Nap - lossiemouth (champion hurdle if she runs)
Lay - narciso has
Ew - welonlyhavedone

 

[Montelado]

Kopek Des Bordes (Nap)
Teahupoo (Lay)
Sandor Clegane (e/w)

 

[Quevega]

Nap - Lossie - should be Favourite so value
Lay - Bambino Fever - Oldschool should be favourite and other unexposed contenders so not value
EW - Hyland Ultima. - looks an average renewal, dropped down to decent competitive mark. Won twice over old course and distance as a novice.

 

[Eggs]

Nap; Mighty Park (Turn)
Lay; The New Lion
E/W; Spinningayarn (AB)

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Nap: Old Park Star
Lay: Brighterdaysahead
E/W: Monbeg Genius (Ultima)

 

[Craigy14]

Nap - Old Park Star, looks a top top drawer novice, performance at Cheltenham 2 runs back was so impressive, he’ll devour the hill again imo.
Lay - The New Lion, nothing he has done warrants being favourite for a champion hurdle, baffled by his price to be honest. Not a great renewal but he’s a fav definitely worth taking on.
Each Way - Jade Du Grugy (mares hurdle), think she comes here and her current price is 4 times (plus) what it will be when she’s confirmed, serious win chance but won’t be out the front 3.

 

[BigL]

Nap - lossiemouth (champion hurdle if she runs)
Lay - narciso has
Ew - welonlyhavedone

Any reasons for the narciso lay ?

 

[Lobos]

Nap... Panic Attack. What she's done this season is extraordinary. Should be MC fav imo and could cap it by winning the GN as well.

Lay... Dinoblue . See above.

EW.... Helnwein. County Hurdle. Form holds up very well and gets in here off a featherweight. Goes well fresh and was a clear 2nd in Greatwood. Alexei running well in the CH could see his odds tumble.

 

[Brooksie]

Nap - The Big Westerner (Browning)
Lay - The New Lion
EW - I'll Sort That (Wherever he goes)

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Lulamba - NAP
KDB/ Kargese - LAYS
Pic Roc or The Jukebox Kid (whichever turns up) NHC - EW

 

[Wayward Lad]

Nap - lossiemouth (champion hurdle if she runs)
Lay - narciso has
Ew - welonlyhavedone

Welonlyhavedone pulled up in two of his last three last races - understand the form with Ill Sort That and also the Zeus Power race, but I am intrigued RR as to why you have you kept the faith, particularly after his last race?

 

[Kauto’s star]

Nap - narcisso has
Lay - Lulamba
E/w - Anzadam (the nutter)

 

[darlojim]

NAP: Doctor Steinberg Bartlett
LAY: No Drama This End
EW: Kim Roque KM

 

[riccirich]

Any reasons for the narciso lay ?

I just think he's far too short, and might get even shorter, when I dont personally think he has achieved much, and I think his 148 rating is laughable. He's rated 3lb higher than sir gino was going into his triumph, who i was much more impressed by at the time.

He's been beaten by mange tout, and then reversed the form. Mange won a pretty low key affair in france, and wasnt hugely impressive on first run in Ireland, I'd question how good she is. Selma de vary was having first start for mullins and looked like she was there for a day out, only beat 4.5l when handled very tenderly. In between those two runs he beat trees.

For context, selma has form with the Skelton horse mille et un vies in france, she beat mille but then mille turned the form around later on. Mille was given a UK mark of 135, which many even thought was slightly harsh. selma hacked up on her last start in france in what looked a weaker race but I'd probably have her rated a bit below mille on French form given she had the beating of her on their last meeting.

Even if selma ran to her best sort of French form at the drf, I wouldnt think a 4.5l beating of her makes you a 148 horse. That's before you even take into account that selma hadn't ran in three months and was likely conceding race fitness, she looked to get tired near the end. And was having her first run for mullins and was given a very soft ride as if it was just a stepping stone for another day. So id say she likely ran below her best French form.

I think hes a bit of a default fave. Had an advantage over selma on that run, and beat mange tout who could be just average. I think selma can get closer, I think proactif could improve a good bit from his first run for mullins just like narciso did, id probably fancy macho man to be a better horse than Mange Tout as well. I also dont think the best UK form is 10-15lb below the irish form or whatever it is. I've not been blown away at all by the irish, so would be surprised if the uk form is that far behind, the likes of maestro conti or maybe minella study even could put it up to any of them. And there's still a few to come out who could easily throw the cat amongst the pigeons in what I think looks an average enough bunch.

A lot of rambling there but to sum up I think when theyre all at peak fitness in the triumph I think theyre probably much of a muchness at the moment and I think the finish will probably resemble something like last years, with a good few fighting it out.

 

[Odddog]

Nap - Old Park Star
Lay - Brighterdaysahead
E/W - Khrisma (mares novices hurdle) 20/1 SkyBet NRNB