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Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

Stormez said:
They were talking him up on the northern gamblers podcast in the week, but as Jon said was disappointing today
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I haven't listened to that, is it any good?

I'm undecided. One minute I'll look at it and see it as a plot job, the next minute I think the horse has just been rubbish for ages and I should just look at what's blindly obvious, he's not going to win a race anytime soon :highly_amused:
 
Reading Lydia Hislops - Road to Cheltenham , She mentions Kapcorse , owned by J.P,
For the Close bros h/cap chs, apparently ran over hurdles last time
To protect the mark ?. Briony frost to ride ?.
 
Interesting to see if Jetz (33-1) blows his mark for the Clos Brothers today. Also, like Discorama (25-1) for this, runs at the end of the month, will then gain a mark. I think the Drinmore form is one to follow.
 
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BigChaang said:
Reading Lydia Hislops - Road to Cheltenham , She mentions Kapcorse , owned by J.P,
For the Close bros h/cap chs, apparently ran over hurdles last time
To protect the mark ?. Briony frost to ride ?.
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saw that, and the hurdle run. Not quoted on many firms and 20-1 AP.
But looks suspicious and he won very easy last time.
 
quevega said:
Duca possibly just ruined his mark with that last win today, fingers crossed, he'd probably be competitive in a graded race or in the brown advisory or Grand annual off a biggish weight
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Also on Duca de Thaix any race. He could still line up in a Grand Annual. 154 was top weight last year. You could question Cheltenham form, but he didnt run a race at all after Christmas last season.

I know Gordon likes to throw a few darts at a handicap if he's targeting one (bar The Storyteller last year who was just a Cert). And he didnt have a runner in this last year. Cubomania is the one to take out of the race but he could be entered in all the the handicaps from 2m - 2m 5f. He stayed on well and looks like the step up will suit. Or is he good enough over a strongly run 2 miles?

What else could Gordon target at the Grand Annual?
Mitchouka? Had a nightmare in the Fred Winter but went off 8/1...
Doctor Phoenix? Would be top weight, too old on stats. Could see him being pulled up as, favourite :D
Dakota Moirette, Veinard...
 
Toffees said:
Also on Duca de Thaix any race. He could still line up in a Grand Annual. 154 was top weight last year. You could question Cheltenham form, but he didnt run a race at all after Christmas last season.

I know Gordon likes to throw a few darts at a handicap if he's targeting one (bar The Storyteller last year who was just a Cert). And he didnt have a runner in this last year. Cubomania is the one to take out of the race but he could be entered in all the the handicaps from 2m - 2m 5f. He stayed on well and looks like the step up will suit. Or is he good enough over a strongly run 2 miles?

What else could Gordon target at the Grand Annual?
Mitchouka? Had a nightmare in the Fred Winter but went off 8/1...
Doctor Phoenix? Would be top weight, too old on stats. Could see him being pulled up as, favourite :D
Dakota Moirette, Veinard...
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Duca could go back over hurdles also, if Gordon thinks he's a better horse the hurdles mark would be tempting, just like with the Storyteller.
 
Hard to evaluate individual chances until the new handicapper has had his say with the Irish. Not beyond the bounds that he might use the chase mark for a hurdles race if he thinks connections are trying it on.
 
Kevloaf said:
I haven't listened to that, is it any good?

I'm undecided. One minute I'll look at it and see it as a plot job, the next minute I think the horse has just been rubbish for ages and I should just look at what's blindly obvious, he's not going to win a race anytime soon :highly_amused:
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Yeah it’s a pretty good listen to be fair, if I remember rightly they were saying something similar to you re John constable! Can’t find them on apple podcasts though so have to listen it on soundcloud
 
Is Fabulous Saga in training? Tried to make all in the AB and emptied at the last.
 
Thoughts on Theatre Territory for the Kim Muir?

40/1 with Bet365 seems a little bit steep, she has form this season with Talkischeap, who some of us like for the Ultima currently, as well as Ibis Du Rheu & The Worlds End, she has a rating of just 132, based on last seasons race she'll get in comfortably at a nice weight, she'll also have Sam Waley-Cohen in the saddle, which could be worse even if he probably won't be the best amateur on show, Cheltenham form isn't horrific, and trained by Warren Greatrex is a positive, given he trained the winner last season.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Thoughts on Theatre Territory for the Kim Muir?

40/1 with Bet365 seems a little bit steep, she has form this season with Talkischeap, who some of us like for the Ultima currently, as well as Ibis Du Rheu & The Worlds End, she has a rating of just 132, based on last seasons race she'll get in comfortably at a nice weight, she'll also have Sam Waley-Cohen in the saddle, which could be worse even if he probably won't be the best amateur on show, Cheltenham form isn't horrific, and trained by Warren Greatrex is a positive, given he trained the winner last season.
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I suppose it depends on how much you feel she has in hand?

Always finds at least one too good, infact she's still a maiden over fences. Greatrex does strike me as a long term planner, more a pot hunter.

They're a couple of negatives, but as ever, you are always going to have a few 'easy digs' when a horse is 40/1 and they can be forgiven.

Beaten less than 2L by Mister Whittaker looks superb form over 2m5f on the Cheltenham New Course - would the Brown Advisory plate come into the equation?
 
Glen Forsa - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase

Nobody has actually made a case for this horse yet which is surprising, he's just been mentioned as being in some speculative trixies but only 11 mentions across the entire site.

The case is bloomin' obvious and he's head of the market (best price now 12/1).

He's rated 137, which is the same rating that Mister Whittaker won off last season. Present View in 2014 also won off 137 (but the ceiling was 140 at the time and it's now 145.) When they did pop it up in 2017 to 145, 1st was Tully East on 138 (well done jono) and Gold Present and Two Taffs we're 2nd and 3rd both off of 137.

He'd be unlucky not to get in the race, but it'll be a close call - my gut feeling is that he'll likely be fine to sneak in near the bottom, as less horses have had 3 runs than usual to get handicap marks, and there can be less 'plotting' this season than others (that's a big generalisation I know)

The negative would be no Cheltenham experience. In the last 10 years the only winner who had never raced at Cheltenham was Present View (2014)

At least half though contested the Handicap Chase in late January... eyes will be peeled with the entries for that race!
 
Kevloaf said:
Glen Forsa - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase

Nobody has actually made a case for this horse yet which is surprising, he's just been mentioned as being in some speculative trixies but only 11 mentions across the entire site.

The case is bloomin' obvious and he's head of the market (best price now 12/1).

He's rated 137, which is the same rating that Mister Whittaker won off last season. Present View in 2014 also won off 137 (but the ceiling was 140 at the time and it's now 145.) When they did pop it up in 2017 to 145, 1st was Tully East on 138 (well done jono) and Gold Present and Two Taffs we're 2nd and 3rd both off of 137.

He'd be unlucky not to get in the race, but it'll be a close call - my gut feeling is that he'll likely be fine to sneak in near the bottom, as less horses have had 3 runs than usual to get handicap marks, and there can be less 'plotting' this season than others (that's a big generalisation I know)

The negative would be no Cheltenham experience. In the last 10 years the only winner who had never raced at Cheltenham was Present View (2014)

At least half though contested the Handicap Chase in late January... eyes will be peeled with the entries for that race!
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Very surprising thought the form students would be all over him with Dell Oro and Glen Rocco both winning last few days , Just Carlo to frank the form again further this week now :devilish:

* would hope to see him out at trials day like you've mentioned Kev, no point trying to be cute with marks in the most condensed hcap at the fez is there .
 
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Yeah, the main point I wanted to make was his form being franked and I got side tracked!

I do not want to miss the price on him when he's inevitably half the price on the day, but I also don't want to get too carried away when I don't know the field etc
 
Kevloaf said:
Glen Forsa - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase

Nobody has actually made a case for this horse yet which is surprising, he's just been mentioned as being in some speculative trixies but only 11 mentions across the entire site.

The case is bloomin' obvious and he's head of the market (best price now 12/1).

He's rated 137, which is the same rating that Mister Whittaker won off last season. Present View in 2014 also won off 137 (but the ceiling was 140 at the time and it's now 145.) When they did pop it up in 2017 to 145, 1st was Tully East on 138 (well done jono) and Gold Present and Two Taffs we're 2nd and 3rd both off of 137.

He'd be unlucky not to get in the race, but it'll be a close call - my gut feeling is that he'll likely be fine to sneak in near the bottom, as less horses have had 3 runs than usual to get handicap marks, and there can be less 'plotting' this season than others (that's a big generalisation I know)

The negative would be no Cheltenham experience. In the last 10 years the only winner who had never raced at Cheltenham was Present View (2014)

At least half though contested the Handicap Chase in late January... eyes will be peeled with the entries for that race!
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Ceiling was still 140 in 2017
Went up last year
137 is still possible based on what you’ve said though. But they may need a couple pounds to be certain
 
Kevloaf said:
Glen Forsa - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase

Nobody has actually made a case for this horse yet which is surprising, he's just been mentioned as being in some speculative trixies but only 11 mentions across the entire site.

The case is bloomin' obvious and he's head of the market (best price now 12/1).

He's rated 137, which is the same rating that Mister Whittaker won off last season. Present View in 2014 also won off 137 (but the ceiling was 140 at the time and it's now 145.) When they did pop it up in 2017 to 145, 1st was Tully East on 138 (well done jono) and Gold Present and Two Taffs we're 2nd and 3rd both off of 137.

He'd be unlucky not to get in the race, but it'll be a close call - my gut feeling is that he'll likely be fine to sneak in near the bottom, as less horses have had 3 runs than usual to get handicap marks, and there can be less 'plotting' this season than others (that's a big generalisation I know)

The negative would be no Cheltenham experience. In the last 10 years the only winner who had never raced at Cheltenham was Present View (2014)

At least half though contested the Handicap Chase in late January... eyes will be peeled with the entries for that race!
Click to expand...

I thought someone had, maybe took that for granted :very_drunk:

Think he is in a few peoples bets though, I know he's in mine. He is a very obvious starting point for the race I agree.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I thought someone had, maybe took that for granted :very_drunk:

Think he is in a few peoples bets though, I know he's in mine. He is a very obvious starting point for the race I agree.
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I left him out as I figured he was too obvious and every man and his dog would be aware. That Novice Handicap Chase at Kempton has strangely been a good pointer for the Close Brothers Race at the festival - I’ve no idea why though.

The other thing to note is he’ll need to win again to get into this race as well. Even though some low ratings got in last year, I’m not sure they’ll chance him making the cut off 134
 
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