Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[Kevloaf]

I’m thinking it might be time to start threads for the handicaps individually to prevent some of these suggestions getting lost amongst each other. I might do a short write up on a couple of them in the next day or 2 to get the ball rolling.

Yeah, a good idea :encouragement:

 

[doctorwu]

I’m thinking it might be time to start threads for the handicaps individually to prevent some of these suggestions getting lost amongst each other. I might do a short write up on a couple of them in the next day or 2 to get the ball rolling.

Brilliant idea VF

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Blow By Blow - Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (what a mouthful)!!

Probably going to upset a few with this suggestion, as many are on for the National Hunt Chase (because Elliott said so), but I see 365 have cut BBB from 33's to 20's for this, and having looked at the background of it you can see why. Gigginstown have won 2 of the last 3 runnings, and Elliott won last years with The Storyteller. BBB (and other Elliott trained horses) has an entry in the same race on Sunday as The Storyteller ran in this time last year, I'll be keeping an eye on the final decs for that one.

No part of BBB's form entitles him to be at the head (or near) of the market for the NH Chase though, he's yet to see out a decent 3m race (albeit a small sample size), his breeding is not encouraging for 4m, and ultimately I think he lacks the class, because the NH Chase has become a much tougher race in recent years.

The genuinely only positive I have is Gordon's word, and that was some time ago now.

There are plenty more positives for an entry in this than there are for the NH Chase IMHO, but to be on the safe side I have gone back in on him 'any race' @ 17.54/1 with WH, but I would not be surprised if he turned up here.

The way he has been campaigned, i.e. against the best novice chaser Gigginstown have (Delta Work), means he is always going to be beat and therefore have a reduced chase mark, currently sitting @ a convenient 143, perfect for the plate!

 

[archie]

The way BBB has been campaigned means that you're guessing at his rating. Nothing in there that entitles him to be well in off 143 even if he got in off that in the UK.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The way BBB has been campaigned means that you're guessing at his rating. Nothing in there that entitles him to be well in off 143 even if he got in off that in the UK.

He's being campaigned in a way that will keep his mark down IMO. I'd rather back him at a trip I know he runs well at than one he doesn't or have no support that he does anyway.

His official rating in Ireland is 143, but like me, the handicapper has taken a guess, pretty much, as his form is not great, however he has been running in all the hot novice races, and as I believe he lacks the class anyway (as previous post), it is no surprise to me to see him beat, and beat well.

The horse that beat him, of WPM's, Some Neck, would also interest me if he came here, though haven't seen him out since.

 

[Folski]

Blow By Blow - Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (what a mouthful)!!

Probably going to upset a few with this suggestion, as many are on for the National Hunt Chase (because Elliott said so), but I see 365 have cut BBB from 33's to 20's for this, and having looked at the background of it you can see why. Gigginstown have won 2 of the last 3 runnings, and Elliott won last years with The Storyteller. BBB (and other Elliott trained horses) has an entry in the same race on Sunday as The Storyteller ran in this time last year, I'll be keeping an eye on the final decs for that one.

No part of BBB's form entitles him to be at the head (or near) of the market for the NH Chase though, he's yet to see out a decent 3m race (albeit a small sample size), his breeding is not encouraging for 4m, and ultimately I think he lacks the class, because the NH Chase has become a much tougher race in recent years.

The genuinely only positive I have is Gordon's word, and that was some time ago now.

There are plenty more positives for an entry in this than there are for the NH Chase IMHO, but to be on the safe side I have gone back in on him 'any race' @ 17.54/1 with WH, but I would not be surprised if he turned up here.

The way he has been campaigned, i.e. against the best novice chaser Gigginstown have (Delta Work), means he is always going to be beat and therefore have a reduced chase mark, currently sitting @ a convenient 143, perfect for the plate!

I had flagged this race for BBB at the start of the year when I heard he was going chasing but with Gordo mentioning the 4m it put it into the back of my mind. He does seem to have been campaigned with the hand brake on, with a view to a handicap rather than a race off levels. I would also add that I had thought Flawless Escape was maybe the horse for this at the start of the year but apparently he goes back over hurdles, may have not taken to fences.

 

[Kevloaf]

The way BBB has been campaigned means that you're guessing at his rating. Nothing in there that entitles him to be well in off 143 even if he got in off that in the UK.

That's true.

I wonder if a combination of handbrake off and step up in trip would get him in the Kim Muir?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Anyone else like Bun Doran @ 20/1 NRNB for the Grand Annual

 

[JackieMoon33]

Anyone else like Bun Doran @ 20/1 NRNB for the Grand Annual

He should be on the shortlist for this race as he runs well at Cheltenham. The only slight doubts would be that he must have good ground and the fact his rating went up quite a bit for his early season win.

 

[TCH29]

The Grand Annual is a good plot race, IMO. BD could win, but agree: would be worried about mark and ground.

Hendo has been trying to get Theinval’s mark down all season after last year’s Ayr success (off 144). He would have won this last year if not for being hampered a couple out as he started his move. He was off 141 though. Not sure whether the handicap is leaving him at 148 after his last run (over 4f too far, held up at the back, never made any effort to win) or whether he’ll bite and bring him down.

Three Stars has a good profile for this; 5th in the race the year before and mark down from 144 to 140. Only doubt is whether he’s actually good enough. Also looks like Nicholls could send Modus here. If he gets his ground he could be on a very tidy mark.

Haven’t gone through the rest in detail.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Not that long ago a word was mentioned about Black Hercules, but still not been sighted.

Has an OR of 152 but that could be dropped up to a stone (ala Arctic Fire) if he made his reappearance at the fez. Has an entry in the Ryanair but could he hack up in the brown plate or something like that?

Storyteller had 11’04 of 147(I think) last year so would imagine he will get in

 

[billymag]

Theinval is 146 now

 

[TCH29]

Theinval is 146 now

Handicap probably still has him in hand. Is there time for one more run over an inadequate distance to get to 144 before the GA?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Probably already been done but....

Ordinary World - Grand Annual 16/1 (NRNB)

Whilst he will have plenty enough weight (currently rated 150, winner last season, Le Prezien, won off the same mark) should he come here it would represent a massive drop in class from what he is used to.

He has run at the last 2 festivals against Altior, the best horse in training, so we can cut him some slack for not being able to put it up to him, he got beat 15 lengths in the Arkle & 35 lengths in the QMCC last season, but ultimately last season was a bit of struggle for him within the company he kept. His latest run was full of hope though, he ran in the Grade 1 Chase @ Leopardstown over Christmas, ending 5 1/4 lengths off the winner, Simply Ned (rated 158), with Footpad (rated 166) just 4 3/4 lengths ahead.

Now we can say Footpad didn't run his race, but it's not the first time Simply Ned has turned over a Mullins hotpot, and the horses in behind Ordinary World, all rated above him, could not have had 'off days' too, I'd struggle to have every horse in the race not running their race, maybe one or 2 at a push, but not the field.

He has an entry in the 2m Grade 1 Chase @ the DRF, which I'm hoping he goes for and gets beat a fair bit, in order to drop a couple of pounds, which will only aid his chances should he turn up here.

He also has an entry in the QMCC again, not sure why, aged 9, as an owner you wouldn't want to give your horse the best possible chance @ something like the Cheltenham Festival, so I am hoping they drop that idea again and come here, but will only be backing NRNB anyway.

Age is not a concern, 9 year olds make up 33.33% of the winners for this race since the turn of the millennium.

 

[Quevega]

Probably already been done but....

Ordinary World - Grand Annual 16/1 (NRNB)

Whilst he will have plenty enough weight (currently rated 150, winner last season, Le Prezien, won off the same mark) should he come here it would represent a massive drop in class from what he is used to.

He has run at the last 2 festivals against Altior, the best horse in training, so we can cut him some slack for not being able to put it up to him, he got beat 15 lengths in the Arkle & 35 lengths in the QMCC last season, but ultimately last season was a bit of struggle for him within the company he kept. His latest run was full of hope though, he ran in the Grade 1 Chase @ Leopardstown over Christmas, ending 5 1/4 lengths off the winner, Simply Ned (rated 158), with Footpad (rated 166) just 4 3/4 lengths ahead.

Now we can say Footpad didn't run his race, but it's not the first time Simply Ned has turned over a Mullins hotpot, and the horses in behind Ordinary World, all rated above him, could not have had 'off days' too, I'd struggle to have every horse in the race not running their race, maybe one or 2 at a push, but not the field.

He has an entry in the 2m Grade 1 Chase @ the DRF, which I'm hoping he goes for and gets beat a fair bit, in order to drop a couple of pounds, which will only aid his chances should he turn up here.

He also has an entry in the QMCC again, not sure why, aged 9, as an owner you wouldn't want to give your horse the best possible chance @ something like the Cheltenham Festival, so I am hoping they drop that idea again and come here, but will only be backing NRNB anyway.

Age is not a concern, 9 year olds make up 33.33% of the winners for this race since the turn of the millennium.

Problem I'd have with Ordinary World is his last furlong is always his slowest.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fred Winter - Surin 25/1 or 12/1 (NRNB)

Runs tomorrow, one I like, suspect will go close tomorrow as she did on her hurdles debut. She's a tough little nut, as you would expect being by Authorized, whose progeny include Tiger Roll & Nichols Canyon.

Tiger Roll won the Triumph as a juvenile, and whilst I don't believe Surin will be quite that good she looks to have ability. I am hoping she will be a bit quicker over her hurdles than from her debut over them.

The race she ran in over Christmas was won by Veneer Of Charm (the year before), who, as we know, won the Fred Winter of 2018 for Elliott and connections, so no surprise to see him use the race again for so many of his juveniles. Unfortunately the race favourite, and another fancy, Fenta Des Obeaux, fell at the first so no chance to see what she is all about, but I suspect she will be a good thing too, whether they both end up in the Fred Winter is anyone's guess, so NRNB prices will definitely be the way forward.

 

[Kevloaf]

John Constable
County Hurdle

Ran in the CH last season and was rated 156 (achieved that mark for a 'flattering' 1.75L defeat to Buveur D'air the time before)

He's been rubbish since, rubbish... but is down to 139 (runs today)... I'll be keeping a very close eye on him.

He's had a run in too many races to genuinly be gone at the game (mad theory but... if he had no ability, they've have pulled up stumps for the season, or given him a break, instead, he''s going for his 8th run this season tomorrow/today! - to me, that means they've trying very hard to lower his mark ASAP.

Wouldn't be shocked to see him freshened up after today with one race in mind...

I'm half tempted by the 25/1 NRNB on offer already...

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Probably already been done but....

Ordinary World - Grand Annual 16/1 (NRNB)

Whilst he will have plenty enough weight (currently rated 150, winner last season, Le Prezien, won off the same mark) should he come here it would represent a massive drop in class from what he is used to.

He has run at the last 2 festivals against Altior, the best horse in training, so we can cut him some slack for not being able to put it up to him, he got beat 15 lengths in the Arkle & 35 lengths in the QMCC last season, but ultimately last season was a bit of struggle for him within the company he kept. His latest run was full of hope though, he ran in the Grade 1 Chase @ Leopardstown over Christmas, ending 5 1/4 lengths off the winner, Simply Ned (rated 158), with Footpad (rated 166) just 4 3/4 lengths ahead.

Now we can say Footpad didn't run his race, but it's not the first time Simply Ned has turned over a Mullins hotpot, and the horses in behind Ordinary World, all rated above him, could not have had 'off days' too, I'd struggle to have every horse in the race not running their race, maybe one or 2 at a push, but not the field.

He has an entry in the 2m Grade 1 Chase @ the DRF, which I'm hoping he goes for and gets beat a fair bit, in order to drop a couple of pounds, which will only aid his chances should he turn up here.

He also has an entry in the QMCC again, not sure why, aged 9, as an owner you wouldn't want to give your horse the best possible chance @ something like the Cheltenham Festival, so I am hoping they drop that idea again and come here, but will only be backing NRNB anyway.

Age is not a concern, 9 year olds make up 33.33% of the winners for this race since the turn of the millennium.

He's one I like as well CoD. I can't get the 16nrnb so will wait to see if bet365 price him up similarly when they change to nrnb.

I'm sure I backed him for this the year he ran in the Arkle. If they can get to Cheltenham off his current mark then he'll be a leading player imo.

 

[BigChaang]

Fred Winter - Surin 25/1 or 12/1 (NRNB)

Runs tomorrow, one I like, suspect will go close tomorrow as she did on her hurdles debut. She's a tough little nut, as you would expect being by Authorized, whose progeny include Tiger Roll & Nichols Canyon.

Tiger Roll won the Triumph as a juvenile, and whilst I don't believe Surin will be quite that good she looks to have ability. I am hoping she will be a bit quicker over her hurdles than from her debut over them.

The race she ran in over Christmas was won by Veneer Of Charm, who, as we know, won the Fred Winter of 2018 for Elliott and connections, so no surprise to see him use the race again for so many of his juveniles. Unfortunately the race favourite, and another fancy, Fenta Des Obeaux, fell at the first so no chance to see what she is all about, but I suspect she will be a good thing too, whether they both end up in the Fred Winter is anyone's guess, so NRNB prices will definitely be the way forward.

I saw Surin mentioned by Lydia Hislop yesterday in her Road to Cheltenham column on S.L., But she never gave
any race targets or much info , just the name, Fred Winter sound's Likely doesn't it .

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fred Winter - Surin 25/1 or 12/1 (NRNB)

Runs tomorrow, one I like, suspect will go close tomorrow as she did on her hurdles debut. She's a tough little nut, as you would expect being by Authorized, whose progeny include Tiger Roll & Nichols Canyon.

Tiger Roll won the Triumph as a juvenile, and whilst I don't believe Surin will be quite that good she looks to have ability. I am hoping she will be a bit quicker over her hurdles than from her debut over them.

The race she ran in over Christmas was won by Veneer Of Charm, who, as we know, won the Fred Winter of 2018 for Elliott and connections, so no surprise to see him use the race again for so many of his juveniles. Unfortunately the race favourite, and another fancy, Fenta Des Obeaux, fell at the first so no chance to see what she is all about, but I suspect she will be a good thing too, whether they both end up in the Fred Winter is anyone's guess, so NRNB prices will definitely be the way forward.

Tough as nails she is, mentality of her half brother, Tiger Roll. She'll relish the Cheltenham hill, I'm sure of it. Now hope she makes it.