• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

Sayar - mentioned on the On The Hunt Podcast, entered in the same race Bleu Berry had a prep in last year, off a similar layoff. Likely to use that race as a prep for the Coral Cup.

Not priced up anywhere but he was a horse mentioned for the Supreme at one stage.


He'll be fairly under the radar for Mullins?
 
Kevloaf said:
Sayar - mentioned on the On The Hunt Podcast, entered in the same race Bleu Berry had a prep in last year, off a similar layoff. Likely to use that race as a prep for the Coral Cup.

Not priced up anywhere but he was a horse mentioned for the Supreme at one stage.


He'll be fairly under the radar for Mullins?
Click to expand...

Just been looking at likely ones from that race saturday (the ladbrokes) who have potentially a stone in hand so win here then go close at cheltenham, and came up with.

Wonder Laish (obv)
Sayar,
Eclair De Beaufeu
Cut the mustard

One or two others interest me if they run well (eyecatchers) without winning, like Tully east that archie mentioned for example. Saglawy and hearts are trumps.
 
quevega said:
Just been looking at likely ones from that race saturday (the ladbrokes) who have potentially a stone in hand so win here then go close at cheltenham, and came up with.

Wonder Laish (obv)
Sayar,
Eclair De Beaufeu
Cut the mustard

One or two others interest me if they run well (eyecatchers) without winning, like Tully east that archie mentioned for example. Saglawy and hearts are trumps.
Click to expand...

Now looked at betting and Uradel been backed so also has to be of interest.
 
You think any can do the double?

I'm thinking more along the lines of seeing what "flops" and backing them :confused:

...by flops I actually mean, "will come on for the run"
 
Kevloaf said:
You think any can do the double?

I'm thinking more along the lines of seeing what "flops" and backing them :confused:

...by flops I actually mean, "will come on for the run"
Click to expand...

It's been done by Final approach, Xenophon (probably others gone close or done it) and Off you go might have gone close last year.
You'd regularly get the placed horses, and winners in this go off shortish at the festival although these days they tend to have to run off at least 10lbs more, sometimes 15-16lb. So you are right in a way.
The ones that are mid 20's probably need to win to get to cheltenham though, but tend to get a stone if they do, but thats why I'd favour those listed as they may be capable.
 
As I take what can only be described as a terrifyingly lackadaisical approach to doing my actual job, I thought I would go through all my ante post selections and start thinking more about my position on each individual race. It has led me back to plenty of horses owned by JP McManus. We all know the JP silks are synonymous with Cheltenham success and it’s impossible to knock the winning most owner with 50+ Cheltenham winners, but it was hearing the all too common phrase ‘JP plot job’ the other day that prompted me to look at JP’s handicap record at Cheltenham over the last 10 festivals (2008 – 2018). I appreciate I’m probably not reaching conclusions the bright minds of The Fat Jockey forum haven’t reached already, but I thought it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers. I wouldn’t let these numbers or stats influence what I back, but I thought would be interesting to look at.

Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
11 / 2 / 3 / 1
2 winners
2012 - Alfie Sherrin 14/1
2009 - Wichita Lineman 5/1f

Close Brothers
14 / 0 / 2 / 3

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
21 / 2 / 3 / 5
2009 - Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
2008 - Garde Champetre 4/1

Coral Cup
24 / 0 / 3 / 2

Pertemps
27 / 0 / 3 / 4

Brown Advisory
17 / 0 / 3 / 3

Kim Muir
19 / 2 / 2 / 3
2016 - Cause Of Causes 9/2f
2012 - Sunnyhillboy 13/2

Martin Pipe
16 / 0 / 2 / 1

County Hurdle
30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
2012 - Alderwood 20/1

Grand Annual
26 / 3 / 3 / 2
2018 - Le Prezien 15/2
2013 - Alderwood 3/1f
2012 - Bellvano 20/1

The ‘Plot’

Garde Champetre 2009 - 11-12 – top weight
Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
Wichita Lineman - 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
Bellvano - 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
Alfie Sherrin - 10-0 – Bottom weight

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
4 (14%) of those went on to win.
In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.

JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form

Squouateur
2016 - Martin Pipe – 7/24
2017 - Kim Muir – UR
2018 - Kim Muir – 3/20

Cheltenham 2019 - Kim Muir – 16/1

Bouvreuil
2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 - Grand Annual – BD

Cheltenham 2019 - Grand Annual - 33/1

Ivanovich Gorbatov
2016 – Triumph* - 1/15
2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
2018 - County Hurdle – 17/25

Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1

Le Prezien
2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

No Comment
2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16

Place Form 2018

Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
Early Doors - Martin Pipe – 3/23

The L15

Squouateur - Kim Muir – 16/1
Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle – 33/1
Bouvreuil - Grand Annual - 33/1
Glenloe – Ultima – 20/1

Like I said at the start, no revelations or ground breaking information, but it puts into perspective his strike rate, especially in races like the Coral Cup and Pertemps where he comes mob handed every year and never wins. Can someone find a JP double for the Coral Cup and Pertemps please because after all that its nailed on isn’t it.
 
Charlie you’ve summed up my thoughts perfectly, I can’t stand hearing JP loves a plot, or the same goes for some trainers e.g David Pipe.

“Oh Pipe loves a plot for the handicap” you know who else does? Everyone, everyone is trying get winners anyway they can.
 
JP & Pipe plots take me back too many years than I care to remember!

Couldn’t agree more
Off to see what I’ve bet in these plot races
 
Excellent stuff Charlie.
The JP handicap blot.
It is just a racing phrase lazily trotted out by journalists and pundits/punters alike that retains some relevance with some people from back in the day.
JP's obviously had previous handicap successes prior to 2008. And has consistently had them dotted throughout a season also. But you'd think he would with the numbers he has.
It's a general problem with most gambling people to remember the one winner and not all the losses in between.
Too much unwarranted praise in this game on that basis.
The JP plot goes along with
Jonjo can get one ready -
Tony Martin plotjob's
and many more that I'm sure people on here can identify with.

Gamblers are always on the sniff, and if you've smelt it somewhere before then you'll probably go there again, even if you've been 100 times since and not got a sniff.

And in 10 yrs time we'll still be watching out for which one of pat Kelly's 3 horses he has in training is going to turn up at the festival in the pertemps.
 
Wow, that’s a very interesting read, thank you for taking the time to write that. A big help and very much appreciated
 
Great work Charlie, really does put it into perspective!
 
Yeah, cracking effort Charlie. Will have a proper read later on but good work :)
 
Ultima Talkischeap 25’s and Worlds End any race, have added Go Conquer
Close Bros Glen Forsa 25’s & LDS 20’s
Coral Cup Nothing as yet, fingers badly burnt ante post last year
Pertemps Early Doors & The Organist

That’s it at present
Obviously Tiger Roll XC
 
Kevloaf said:
Requested Gun Digger today, 25/1 any race with WH which I have added.

Not all my own work, (and thanks to archie for the post about the ratings for Gordon's for trials day) -

The mark of 139 seems very fair, on a line through Bacardys - who although can't jump, is a 150+ rated hurdler, who fell at the last leaving Gun Digger clear (along with another horse) but I like the way he was going, and he'd have certainly been in the mix that day.

I also think the 3l behind Chris's Dream is potentially a run he's well handicapped on, as that horse wouldn't be out of place in graded races.

Some of his other form is more 'miss' than 'hit' but he has a slim chance of slipping into the Close Brothers, but has the Kim Muir and Plate as well as possibilities.

Gigginstown guarantee's an able pilot on board wherever he goes, and they have enough good horses to be able to target a few at handicaps, which although isn't actual proof of anything, certainly isn't a negative to my mind.
Click to expand...

Good work getting him priced up any race Kev, cheers for that - I gave him a positive mention on the Close Bros thread, strange that he's not more widely priced up for that race. Pleasantly surprised at the 25s any race and have followed you in. 2 others I gave a mention to on the other thread are Articulum and Mind's Eye and I see they are also both 25s any race with Hills. Both are running tomorrow and I may just be hovering over those with a view to one of the handicaps.
 
Great work that Charlie.
I personally think handicaps are changing at the festival, wasn't that long back there were under maximum fields and horses running from out the handicap, now some 'caps have 3/4/5lb ranges, making 'plots' impossible, try being too cute and you won't get in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom