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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

somer1 said:
IF thats a bloody big word Kev.
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So there is no "IF" about last years RSA being better than Al Boum Photo or Kemboy's form?


For me, IF the RSA last year (Topofthegame, Santini, Delta Work) was a top class renewal, their prices this year are just about right.

IF it wasn't a top class renewal, they're bad prices now...


On balance, do I want a bet in September that at best is the right price.
 
So if is a big word.What price you put on a horse that has never won or ran over the Gold Cup trip? Samcro was the horse to do everything last year and we got our fingers burnt. A tenner in the pocket is better than a tenner on a horse that no one knows if it will stay in a race
 
somer1 said:
So if is a big word.What price you put on a horse that has never won or ran over the Gold Cup trip? Samcro was the horse to do everything last year and we got our fingers burnt. A tenner in the pocket is better than a tenner on a horse that no one knows if it will stay in a race
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Well to be fair Somer, not many horses get to run over the Gold Cup trip or further prior to winning it.... a very quick look through the previous 10 winners and none of these would have done it....

Al Boum Photo, Sizing John, Don Cossack, Coneygree, Lord Windemere, Bobs Worth, Long Run and Kauto Star

I am convinced he stays further than 2 miles, and confident he stays more than 2.5 miles.... I expect he'll stay 3 miles and I hope he stays 3 miles 2 :highly_amused:


Ultimately, I believe he's the most talented horse in the betting, and that is the most important thing... trips, ground, jockeys, form all come secondary (on a sliding and impossible to define scale)
 
Kevloaf said:
Well to be fair Somer, not many horses get to run over the Gold Cup trip or further prior to winning it.... a very quick look through the previous 10 winners and none of these would have done it....

Al Boum Photo, Sizing John, Don Cossack, Coneygree, Lord Windemere, Bobs Worth, Long Run and Kauto Star

I am convinced he stays further than 2 miles, and confident he stays more than 2.5 miles.... I expect he'll stay 3 miles and I hope he stays 3 miles 2 :highly_amused:


Ultimately, I believe he's the most talented horse in the betting, and that is the most important thing... trips, ground, jockeys, form all come secondary (on a sliding and impossible to define scale)
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You’ve sold me Kev.

This has been an excellent discussion on Altior and I’ve decided I’m on board the Altior is a good price train. We know he’s the best horse. And he looks like a stayer. Whether he looks a Gold Cup stayer is another question but what if (big what if I know) he does. We’re getting 14s on a 2/1 shot if he proves he stays in the King George.

A point each way on the best horse in training can’t hurt can it?

1 point each way on Altior @ 14/1
 
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It’s great for racing that they’re having a go as expected
And he’s been clear in saying they’ll revert back if it don’t go to plan
It shakes things up for now
I think he’s a living legend but I think they might have left it a year too late.
He’ll be 10 next year
To win a gold cup at 10 in last 30 years you’ve got to be Cool
 
Agree, good discussion.
I still think there’s next to no chance Altior lines up Friday but should I be completely wrong I’ll be parting with a few quid to see how much stamina he really does have, and this of course is the big question because for 5+ years he’s raced exclusively at 2m, no-one’s thought he’s been a gold cup horse before now.

I’ll get my wallet....
 
I do think that most if not all are confusing the Altior of today with the edition from his first Champion Chase. For me, he's definitely regressed since then and I sometimes wonder whether the flat spots and jumping left are symptoms of something, physical or mental, that is bothering him.
I wouldn't be adamant that Willie won't send one over for the KG. He'll want to keep Kemboy and ABP apart and if they're both ready to go at Christmas, then who knows.
As for the RSA form, it looks good on the face of it but you really do need to see if they've gone on and can take to open races. Don't forget that Presenting Percy was rated 167 this time last year and that went well, didn't it.
 
I thought he always had 'flat spots' just in the past year or so he's been a little slower kicking into gear, something a step up in trip is probably aimed at aiding.

IF there is something physically and mentally bothering him then he's an even better horse than the credit he's been given (which is already astronomical), because you shouldn't be able to put up them performances with them issues IMO. I personally don't think anything is wrong.

I'm praying Kemboy turns up to the King George, I think he'll be best suited, and I think it will make a hell of a race if him and Altior match up.

Presenting Percy was so last year ;) :highly_amused:
 
Pleased to here OK Corral being considered for Ladbrokes. Regretting not asking for a price now as it might have been better than 20-1 before they said anything..
Not a big surprise to me that they have cast doubt on Santini running off that weight/mark. It's not the weight he'd carry so much, it's the others that will be running with comparitive feathers on their backs compared to what the horse's carried in novice chases last year.
They should still consider though it as he ran a nice race at newbury last season and the track may suit.
 
Really enjoying reading the Altior discussion lads!

Absolutely fascinating to see how things play out. Even if he stinks it up at Kempton it'll still be interesting to see their plan from then.
 
I have Cyrname at 12/1 for the KG, so maybe I really ought to be backing Altior as a cover bet too, now his target is clearly defined. If he bears a Cyrname at Ascot in the 2M4F prep-run my KG bet may look shakey at best, unless I have Altior in my book.
 
Hamptonfox said:
I have Cyrname at 12/1 for the KG, so maybe I really ought to be backing Altior as a cover bet too, now his target is clearly defined. If he bears a Cyrname at Ascot in the 2M4F prep-run my KG bet may look shakey at best, unless I have Altior in my book.
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wait till ascot is declared and back him in that.
 
quevega said:
Pleased to here OK Corral being considered for Ladbrokes. Regretting not asking for a price now as it might have been better than 20-1 before they said anything..
Not a big surprise to me that they have cast doubt on Santini running off that weight/mark. It's not the weight he'd carry so much, it's the others that will be running with comparitive feathers on their backs compared to what the horse's carried in novice chases last year.
They should still consider though it as he ran a nice race at newbury last season and the track may suit.
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Do you have a link to this Q?
 
No mate, just bits and pieces from his stableowners tour at weekend.
I think someone already has put up the quote somewhere on here though
on the main racing post site theire a section on his tour for members only, but one of the headlines says that ok corral ladbrokes and santini might follow might bite path.
 
Personally think the bet with Altior is more for the King George rather than Gold Cup. Not saying he can't win a Gold Cup, but the 3/1 with WH (plus slight boost) is for me a better bet than the 14/1 for the GC. I also think if a clash with Cyrname at Ascot goes ahead you'll be able to get a fair price for him there too in that match up. Would much rather be rolling on bets with Altior from the KG (if wanting too) when the evidence of him over 3 miles will be there.

What price for Altior for the GC if he wins the King George? I still think it's very likely you'll be able to get at the very least 5/2 unless he just demolishes the field.

1pt @3/1 now for the race. Then if need be, roll those winnings onto circa 5/2 minimum for the GC.
13/1

So for me your getting around the same price. But your getting it after seeing the key trial race in his season. In what will be a markedly weaker race compared to March (if most/all of the field line up). At a distance which is slightly less of a question mark. It just for me looks an easier race so far on paper. With less doubts. And half of the potential GC field unlikely to make it.
Completely get the 14/1 and what at the time of discussion yesterday 16/1 could look a gift. It's just a little skinny for me personally outright...

Despite some suggesting the KG is as much of stamina test as the GC. Thistlecrack (though to his credit you could say his peak chance at the race was taken through injury) and Clan des Obeaux are just another 2 of a long line showing that you can win and stay the KG but then not quite have enough for the 3m2 in the Gold Cup.

On Altior and where his trajectory sits this year...
I don't think anyone will disagree that he is on a downward curve staying at the 2mile trip. The supporters (like me) will hope that the step up in trip will offset this and could even bring improvement. And even if not he could just hold his form and for me that would be enough such is his ability. I always thought that he'd still have enough talent and ability for the upcoming 2 mile open division. Though Henderson's last 2 updates on Altior would have me questioning that confidence. It's merely an opinion of a racing fan with no links to the game and knowledge far inferior to the ratings guys but i'd also have had the Un de Sceaux win at Sandown last season as one of his best performances myself. Certainly above his Newbury and Sandown wins in the Spring of 2018. So happy to put aside a rating that has stayed level for a while now with no apparent improvement. If you have the view of him wanting further, which the trainer and jockey both have, you could say he's also just found his ceiling at that trip. I also think there is an element of race tactics and (fully justified) gamesmanship that has counted against him. He's had all sorts of tactics thrown at him. Horses and jockeys have repeatedly changed tact hoping to catch him off guard and play out the races in ways to limit his chances. You only have to look at Min last season, one of the best 2 -2m4 open chasers and how Mullins completely changed his style in a season that was almost faultless. Again fully justified and you have to find a way to beat these great horses but I do think it has given a slightly false perception of him not being further ahead of the likes of Politoligue and Sceau Royal etc than the finishing distances have suggested. I always think of some football teams. A team like Bournemouth / Burnley could put 10 men behind the ball against City / Liverpool. Get by with a 1 nil defeat rather than a hammering but the gulf in class between the teams is way bigger than the result on paper.

For me it really comes down to something we'll never know until March. And only Nicky Henderson, Nico and Patricia Pugh will know in their discussions in that is the reason for stepping Altior up in trip a sporting issue, with nothing to lose and a free crack for a horse who the owner is certain to never have anything like again. Or a result of a reluctance and worry that he may well struggle over 2 miles if something doesn't change.

Will be fascinating to find out. I've got a flight out to New Zealand on Boxing Day just after the KG.
Personally hoping i'll be boarding the plane having just watched Altior win it :triumphant:



So on the above i've added:

3pt - Altior KG

1pt - Altior KG & GC double @ 20/1 (as if he wins the KG he will be going Gold Cup in almost all circumstances. Annoyingly missed the 25's which I wanted last night but still just enough in that price for me)

2pt - Altior KG & Chacun Pour Soi Champion Chase @ 27/1 The obvious of Altior winning the KG, going GC and opening up the day for he 2 mile division. However even if Altior drops back to 2 miles again (which i'd still be just about be backing the most likely outcome right now) the more Henderson is speaking the more i'll be worrying about going big on him for a third win in Queen Mother. I wouldn't be so confident of him just being able to drop back and beat them all. And this is the horse that i'd want well and truly onside if going in against/without Altior.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Do you have a link to this Q?
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Other news from Henderson’s Owners’ Day (again from tmrw’s RP) - Santini could head to Sandown for the intermediate chase, whilst Ok Corral could be Ladbrokes Trophy bound. Brave Eagle another possible for the Newbury showpiece. Beware The Bear to be aimed at the Grand National.</p>— Paul Ferguson (@paulfergusonJTF) <a href="https://twitter.com/paulfergusonJTF/status/1175870150798663686?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 22, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Apparently the race wasn't ruled out as such but hard to assume he will if that was the case (I haven't seen the RP article myself)
 
Hendo used the Sandown race as a prep for Whisper a couple of years ago but I don't think he'd do that again.

It'll be disappointing if they swerve the Hennessy :grumpy:
 
As per usual, a solid piece of reasoning there Jono.
I agree with the reasoning and pretty much everything you've said.
Except, for some reason I don't like the prices that are available regarding Altior.

IMO the bookies are taking advantage of the horses popularity and the prices don't seem fair.
It's almost like a supply and demand thing, and the fear of not having money on such a talent and watching him win will influence many (not all) bets. I think there's a premium in the price is what I'm saying.

To me, the three mile division is far deeper and dangers aplenty for a horse nearing ten (like u said, this may be less so in the KG).

So I'll be opting to try and get him beat each time again, unless he's priced up differently. (backing against him has worked so far :highly_amused:)


If he lines up at ascot against Cyrname and one or two others, the bookies will find that tricky enough to weigh up, and one way or another there could be a good betting opportunity there. Before we even get to the KG.
 
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