• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

What price would you have Altior or be willing to back him at out of interest Q?

I forgot to mention the one drawback to the King George would be the right handed element though I don't think it's as much of a concern as some. But it would be the one obvious aspect in his favour at Cheltenham over Kempton. As mentioned elsewhere.

And there could be an argument to be made that you keep him onside for the early part of the season and maybe less so at the back end of the year with like you say him being 10 years old come March when you get to the peak of the season...
 
quevega said:
No mate, just bits and pieces from his stableowners tour at weekend.
I think someone already has put up the quote somewhere on here though
on the main racing post site theire a section on his tour for members only, but one of the headlines says that ok corral ladbrokes and santini might follow might bite path.
Click to expand...

I read that too ( about o.k. corral ) on the link that Salubrious chin put up - paul ferguson on twitter i think.
 
Last edited:
jono said:
What price would you have Altior or be willing to back him at out of interest Q?

I forgot to mention the one drawback to the King George would be the right handed element though I don't think it's as much of a concern as some. But it would be the one obvious aspect in his favour at Cheltenham over Kempton. As mentioned elsewhere.

And there could be an argument to be made that you keep him onside for the early part of the season and maybe less so at the back end of the year with like you say him being 10 years old come March when you get to the peak of the season...
Click to expand...

It's hard to say to be fair.
Although I think he's premium priced it is a very difficult one to gauge.
Just with his record at 2 miles being awesome, but that division is light on numbers and quality (or has been from time to time)

It reminds me a bit of Faugheen's step up to 3 miles (and his price never seemed to reflect the task he had to take on) And I had a 'sensible' saver on him cos of influencer's on here. But I was never a believer.

Probably a better example would be to imagine Buveur D'air stepping up to 3 miles. The bookies just know he'll have his followers so can price him up accordingly (whilst probably not really factoring in his actual task)

I think I'd want around 25-1 for the Gold cup myself, as I find that quite hard (him winning) to imagine at this point in time (even after winning the King George). This may obviously change and if he wins in style I'll be reconsidering. I think though he's always going to be a premium price so I'll rarely back him. I never backed Kauto Star until he won his 5th KG (think I got 5-1 on the morning).

The King George, assuming both Cyrname and Clan des Obeaux turn up (plus other lively types).
It's hard to say a price I'd back him at, but definitely higher than 3-1. At the moment I'd probably prefer to back both Cyrname and CDO at 6-1 each of two (is that 5/2 ?).

I'd definitely want him to be closer in price to the other main rivals as I'd find backing those against him more attractive.

PS, I'm obviously not against backing horses at a premium price, but much prefer to do so when more evidence is at hand, much nearer the day. And it's easier to do so on a horse that's already added to your bank. Not always logical to do so but it is natural.

On your last point, I'd agree that I'm more likely to back him at ascot and Kempton (if prices are closer) than for the Gold cup.
 
It'll be interesting to see what prices Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname would go off.

They'd be put up by pretty much every single pundit if they were both available at each way prices (like 6/1)... and rightly so.


For that reason, they can't go too short on Altior because the bookies will get absolutely filled in by shrewdies on the each way prices?



So Altior could end up a decent price instead?



I said this aaages ago, but this is more a heart over head scenario but I'm willing to do it, as the head can also make a good case.
 
Kevloaf said:
It'll be interesting to see what prices Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname would go off.

They'd be put up by pretty much every single pundit if they were both available at each way prices (like 6/1)... and rightly so.


For that reason, they can't go too short on Altior because the bookies will get absolutely filled in by shrewdies on the each way prices?



So Altior could end up a decent price instead?



I said this aaages ago, but this is more a heart over head scenario but I'm willing to do it, as the head can also make a good case.
Click to expand...

Yep, this may play out at ascot actually if no one ducks it.
 
That's a disgrace when you look at his price for the ladbroke today.
 
had 2pts Ok corral at 20's
 
Last edited:
quevega said:
had 2pts Ok corral at 20's
Click to expand...

That makes some more sense. I was close to mocking you for a knee jerk reaction, as 10s is no way value based on a rival getting injured :highly_amused:


Wouldn't this news make Santini a more likely runner though? One less horse decent to dodge
 
Topofthegame out for the season

Edit: sorry did check but missed the other post
 
Kevloaf said:
That makes some more sense. I was close to mocking you for a knee jerk reaction, as 10s is no way value based on a rival getting injured :highly_amused:


Wouldn't this news make Santini a more likely runner though? One less horse decent to dodge
Click to expand...

possibly, especially if ground not too testing as well, but I think they had the same thought process with me with the handicap mark and weight.
It's a tough ask for a second season novice and you got to be pretty confident to try.

I reckon they're not so sure about santini's potential myself (in comparison to others in the past), and you've mentioned it yourself (and was mildly chastised) with his win record.
 
I'm a little disappointed but not at all surprised to hear that they might sidestep with Santini to be honest.

I've only got 2 pts win on him for the Ladbroke Trophey at 15/1 and that was from 17th March, so it shouldn't really affect my thinking.



Haven't considered Ok Corral much at all since he didn't place in the 4 miler to be honest, will probably come right back to the forefront of my mind when I watch back day 1 though... but at the moment I feel bitter the gamble went astray and I haven't fully "reset" my mind yet.
 
Sad news about Topofthegame tonight, hope not many on here were hit too hard by that news.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm a little disappointed but not at all surprised to hear that they might sidestep with Santini to be honest.

I've only got 2 pts win on him for the Ladbroke Trophey at 15/1 and that was from 17th March, so it shouldn't really affect my thinking.



Haven't considered Ok Corral much at all since he didn't place in the 4 miler to be honest, will probably come right back to the forefront of my mind when I watch back day 1 though... but at the moment I feel bitter the gamble went astray and I haven't fully "reset" my mind yet.
Click to expand...

I know exactly what you mean Kev but I’m prepared to forgive the 4-miler disappointment. If Hendo is targeting him at the Ladbroke ahead of Santini then that is good enough for me... I can still remember the big impression he made that led to the gamble and I think many of us doubted at the time that the 4 miler was the right target thereafter. Don’t think the price will hold up once the dust settles and he could well go off a well backed fav now IMO.
 
Have I missed something with Santini? Why do people think hendo will sidestep the Ladbroke trophy with him? I have points on with option to cash out.
 
Willdunn99 said:
Have I missed something with Santini? Why do people think hendo will sidestep the Ladbroke trophy with him? I have points on with option to cash out.
Click to expand...

Henderson stable tour suggested he may head to Sandown
 
Crolwey113 said:
Henderson stable tour suggested he may head to Sandown
Click to expand...

Not at all surprised as he would be trying to do the impossible giving nearly a stone and a half to Benie Des Deiux. How the hell she is rated 147 over fences I shall never know. Think she will scare most of the field off in the Ladbroke if Willie does the right thing and declare het. Off that weight he would be an idiot not to. With Santini very doubtful, Lostintranslation going for Betfair chase, Le Bague au Roi targeting King George and Topofthegame sidelined, the 12/1 on offer for Benie could be the bet of the century. I'm on already to win a grand at that price. She owes me for her fez drop so I am banking on compensation. Steam in boys and girls !!
 
Lobos said:
Not at all surprised as he would be trying to do the impossible giving nearly a stone and a half to Benie Des Deiux. How the hell she is rated 147 over fences I shall never know. Think she will scare most of the field off in the Ladbroke if Willie does the right thing and declare het. Off that weight he would be an idiot not to. With Santini very doubtful, Lostintranslation going for Betfair chase, Le Bague au Roi targeting King George and Topofthegame sidelined, the 12/1 on offer for Benie could be the bet of the century. I'm on already to win a grand at that price. She owes me for her fez drop so I am banking on compensation. Steam in boys and girls !!
Click to expand...

That fall was the single most crushing moment of my punting career.

I was stood with my mate at the last hurdle and that fall done us for 4k - which is a lot for two 20 year old students.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom