Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[somer1]

I got a fair bit on PP for this BUT it comes across to me a bit like Henrietta Knight and Best Mate.Trainer scared to run him.

 

[The Beast]

Just read Davy Russell saying that Presenting Percy won’t be beaten for fitness. I am happy to accept that but, when you take a close look at the form, he really is shocking value and priced purely on perceived potential as opposed to anything he has achieved on the track.
Let’s start with this season: one run and one win. He won the Galmoy well but it was a poor renewal with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th not having run anywhere near to their marks in Ireland for some time (Bapaume did run pretty well in France at the end of last season)
If you then look at his novice season starting with his first run: a fairly labored performance to beat (the still maiden) De Plotting Shed at Galway followed by a pretty comprehensive defeat at the hands of Jury Duty on his favoured soft ground at Punchestown. He then won the Porterstown; he won well enough but it was a poor race. He then ran Our Duke to a length in receipt of 7 pounds in the Red Mills; but how good was Our Duke last season? (previously well behind Edwulf and then subsequently pulled up in the Gold Cup)
Presenting Percy was undoubtedly impressive in the RSA but if you take the view that Monalee didn’t stay, that Elegant Escape and Ballyoptic are better over further and Black Corton, admirable as he is, is short of top class, then how strong a RSA was it? (Al Boum Photo did win at Fairyhouse and may have won at Punchestown but the RSA was his first try at 3 miles over fences)

And you know what’s really frustrating? I can’t find anything that I would be confident can beat him!

Agree with what you say , however PP can win IF he gets his preferred ground with soft in going description , yes he has won on good ground at Cheltenham but his stats say he very much ground dependant as is Native River (who would be his main danger on soft ). I would say every horse has a preferred type of ground and if it came up genuine good ground he has it to do against several inform good ground horses. We can all say this will win that will win , but in reality none of us know , and we wont know till that Friday afternoon.

 

[charlie]

Well he finished well enough in front of CDO at Haydock first time out. I just think a line through Kempton for Native River is the way I look at it. Cant act there whatsoever but certainly does at Cheltenham. Can't believe he's not favourite.

He needs a bog. No bog no chance.

 

[Big Chac]

Well he finished well enough in front of CDO at Haydock first time out

Yh that was first time out and CDO has clearly improved after that. He's not favourite because he's not got the best form this season and got the best part of 13 lengths to find with CDO. It looks a stronger race this year as well so he'll have to be just as good if not better so doubt he'll be good enough to win this re-newal......The gold cup takes its toll on horses which is why they struggle to win it for a 2nd time. Il be surprised if Native river is one of those that's able to achieve that

I appreciate where you're coming from though so good luck with your bet, I hope he runs well for you.

 

[Big Dave]

Hi folks new to this forum and from what I've seen so far it looks great... I know the prep presenting percy has had is not been ideal but jumping fences has never been an issue with him and I don't think it will be come gold cup day...I just can't see what's going to beat him...loving the forum ��

 

[DonnyBoy]

He needs a bog. No bog no chance.

You need a bog to flush that rubbish of a post down charlie

 

[Kautostar]

I got a fair bit on PP for this BUT it comes across to me a bit like Henrietta Knight and Best Mate.Trainer scared to run him.

Didn’t work out too bad for matey in the gold cup’s

 

[Kevloaf]

You can expect a both barrelled response from Kevloaf BoF...

:highly_amused:...

Just read Davy Russell saying that Presenting Percy won’t be beaten for fitness. I am happy to accept that but, when you take a close look at the form, he really is shocking value and priced purely on perceived potential as opposed to anything he has achieved on the track.
Let’s start with this season: one run and one win. He won the Galmoy well but it was a poor renewal with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th not having run anywhere near to their marks in Ireland for some time (Bapaume did run pretty well in France at the end of last season)
If you then look at his novice season starting with his first run: a fairly labored performance to beat (the still maiden) De Plotting Shed at Galway followed by a pretty comprehensive defeat at the hands of Jury Duty on his favoured soft ground at Punchestown. He then won the Porterstown; he won well enough but it was a poor race. He then ran Our Duke to a length in receipt of 7 pounds in the Red Mills; but how good was Our Duke last season? (previously well behind Edwulf and then subsequently pulled up in the Gold Cup)
Presenting Percy was undoubtedly impressive in the RSA but if you take the view that Monalee didn’t stay, that Elegant Escape and Ballyoptic are better over further and Black Corton, admirable as he is, is short of top class, then how strong a RSA was it? (Al Boum Photo did win at Fairyhouse and may have won at Punchestown but the RSA was his first try at 3 miles over fences)

And you know what’s really frustrating? I can’t find anything that I would be confident can beat him!

Maybe all that's correct, (although it's dubious to say Monalee is a non stayer, he's been 2nd over 3m at the festival twice...) but but your last line sums it up nicely.

What on earth does have good form going in to this?

Last years Gold Cup is the place to start, MB and NR had the rest in pieces... so no form from anything in behind (including RTR) that puts them as credible ones to beat. Bellshill closely linked to RTR now too, so all held by Native River. MB is gone at the game, NR is a boat and would have no chance on anything better than soft to heavy ground. He'll run a nice race I imagine, and the fact is he may well be the one to bat, which wouldn't send shivers down my spine at all!

Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy are more unexposed, both have Grade 1's to their name now so technically you'd assume they set the bar, but you can see why people are not believing the Kemboy run as the jockey's guile had too much impact for that to be a true reflection, and CDO has beaten Terrefort in a match and Thistlecrack who has no business being sub 20/1 in a Gold Cup then a completely lacklustre Native River ... beaten by Thjistlecrack twice this season and BDM.


You can knock Percy's form all you like, but there is nothing setting the bar very high at all... and Percy will sail over that bar like it's a Galmoy Hurdle hurdle.

 

[Kevloaf]

I got a fair bit on PP for this BUT it comes across to me a bit like Henrietta Knight and Best Mate.Trainer scared to run him.

Hope it works out the same for PP as it did Best Mate

 

[charlie]

You need a bog to flush that rubbish of a post down charlie

Native River needs heavy ground to be in with a real chance. I'm not setting the world alight in saying that, it's common knowledge

 

[Kevloaf]

You need a bog to flush that rubbish of a post down charlie

Native River Chase record (according to RP ground descriptions)

On Soft or Heavy:
131111
Won 5 out of 6 on Soft or worse 83.3%


On Good/Good to soft
3132121323

Won 3 out of 10 on the rest (including Good to Soft/Good) 30%


Of those 10 run on Good to Soft or Good - the ones with soft are:
132113 50% wins

Just good:
3232 0% wins

 

[charlie]

Native River Chase record (according to RP ground descriptions)

On Soft or Heavy:
131111
Won 5 out of 6 on Soft or worse 83.3%


On Good/Good to soft
3132121323

Won 3 out of 10 on the rest (including Good to Soft/Good) 30%


Of those 10 run on Good to Soft or Good - the ones with soft are:
132113 50% wins

Just good:
3232 0% wins

Top work Kev! Mudlark it is DonnyBoy

 

[Istabraq]

I have a different view on Native River.
I’m not convinced he’s ground dependent but what he does need is a serious stamina test and 3m around flat tracks like Haydock and Kempton will never play to his strengths, so the good ground failures (not winning) need more delving, I thought his King George effort was outstanding.
26.5f is the perfect test for NR, whatever ground is thrown at him...

 

[DonnyBoy]

Native River needs heavy ground to be in with a real chance. I'm not setting the world alight in saying that, it's common knowledge

Whether the horse wins or not is almost irrelevant to the fact that it just isn't true that it needs heavy ground to be competitive. Was only beat 3l in a gold cup on good ground in an above standard time. He isn't a slow boat, not even close .


There seems to a huge misconception regarding ground dependency for this horse and I just cant see why. When he hasn't won, them form figures are hardly desperate are they, and all in top class races.

 

[charlie]

Whether the horse wins or not is almost irrelevant to the fact that it just isn't true that it needs heavy ground to be competitive. Was only beat 3l in a gold cup on good ground in an above standard time. He isn't a slow boat, not even close .


There seems to a huge misconception regarding ground dependency for this horse and I just cant see why. When he hasn't won, them form figures are hardly desperate are they, and all in top class races.

The numbers on soft/heavy v good/soft tell you why. Not much room for misconceptions. I'm not saying he can't be competitive on good/soft, but this a tougher race than last year where it was soft.

 

[DonnyBoy]

The numbers on soft/heavy v good/soft tell you why. Not much room for misconceptions. I'm not saying he can't be competitive on good/soft, but this a tougher race than last year where it was soft.

Fair point and I agree about the race being tougher. Could easily be soft this year as well and if so should be favourite on the day on all known form.

 

[boopa]

Whether the horse wins or not is almost irrelevant to the fact that it just isn't true that it needs heavy ground to be competitive. Was only beat 3l in a gold cup on good ground in an above standard time. He isn't a slow boat, not even close .


There seems to a huge misconception regarding ground dependency for this horse and I just cant see why. When he hasn't won, them form figures are hardly desperate are they, and all in top class races.

He's not as good as he was last year. That Gold Cup was brutal he hasn't travelled or jumped like the same horse since.

 

[Altior]

Ye'll all be eating crow when Thistlecrack is nodding his head on the bridle up the hill!

 

[Kevloaf]

I have a different view on Native River.
I’m not convinced he’s ground dependent but what he does need is a serious stamina test and 3m around flat tracks like Haydock and Kempton will never play to his strengths, so the good ground failures (not winning) need more delving, I thought his King George effort was outstanding.
26.5f is the perfect test for NR, whatever ground is thrown at him...

16 runs over fences and never out of the 3.

Some record!


It's 100% a price thing for me, but I totally understand the appeal, I just don't want to back it.

I've only had a handful of bets at single figures and this won't be one I wouldn't have thought.


If Native River is about to join Kauto Star, Best Mate, Arkle, and the other ABSOLUTE SUPERSTARS in the last hundred years to win multiple Gold Cups (7 I think in total), then he'll do it without me backing at 5/1 on this seasons form.

 

[DonnyBoy]

He's not as good as he was last year. That Gold Cup was brutal he hasn't travelled or jumped like the same horse since.

The phrase Horses for courses I believe was made for Native River. Only ran twice though since last years race. Over them fences that came in for much ridicule at Haydock which suited no one and the KG where looking like tailing off at one stage finished with a right old rattle to finish 4th on a track he doesn't take to. Now onto where he the champion .