Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[charlie]

Agree Scoody, have RTR at 44’s but wouldn’t knock 18’s one bit

 

[Kevloaf]

I was at Haydock yesterday, what an anti-climax :highly_amused:

I was hoping the bookies would massively over-react on Might Bite and they haven't really. I wouldn't completely rule him out because of his previous form but he's been too short for me to consider all summer and I'm happy to leave him now, the KG is a much more likely race for MB to win and he'll be a backable price for that now I'd imagine, although I think the field will have a few Irish challangers (Disko and Bellshill) that won't be afraid to have a crack at him now!

Presenting Percy fans (especially those on at 40/1 ) will clearly be pleased with the result today - but I completely see why you'd look for alternatives because 5/1 is still short regardless of what happened yesterday.

If I was starting completely fresh, with nothing backed, I'd say Road To Respect would be the best bet at 16s (18/1) because he's shown the best form so far this season and we know it's the target.

I couldn't have Native River at (standout 7/1) either. I don't see why Tizzard is so pleased really, getting beaten by Bristol De Mai on good ground isn't anything to crow about and he's way too short for me. I can't see any way I back him because he won't get anywhere near double figures and that is what I'd want.

 

[somer1]

After the run of Might Bite yester do we think alls well in the NH camp?

 

[Scooby91]

After the run of Might Bite yester do we think alls well in the NH camp?

I wouldn't worry at all, they're in good form. Your not going to win every race at the top grade and he's placing them highly. Might bite has been to the well a few times. Can't judge the yard on him alone.

 

[jack1092]

Agree Kev, R2R for me is a real good bet. He was mighty impressive at DR when i saw him + i think he'd have gone closer this year if the ground was better.

One potential worry for me is the ground again this year. Yes i am mad to be trying to second guess the weather, but with how dry its been, i wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Winter carry on later again like it did this year...soft GC perhaps again!

Might Bite to me isn't suited by a proper 3m+ test, and he has holes in him. I don't trust him 100% and that's even after they've fixed his hanging business.

 

[archie]

Ok punters, time to play Be The Bookie. As per the Champion Hurdle thread, working out your own book sometimes gives a clearer picture.

As a guide, Paddy Power, who some think have the best angle on Irish form (not necessarily true), go:

9/2 Presenting Percy (6/1)
7/1 Native River (10/1)
8/1 Might Bite (12/1)
10/1 Road To Respect (8/1)
16/1 Sizing John (16/1)
16/1 Footpad (16/1)
20/1 Bristol De Mai (20/1)
20/1 Bellshill (12/1)
20/1 Balko Des Flos (20/1)
20/1 Monalee (16/1)
25/1 Definitly Red (25/1)
25/1 Al Boum Photo (16/1)
25/1 Thistlecrack (16/1)
giving a 93.3% book
plus 8 (Shattered Love/Killultagh Vic/Disko/Terrefort/Kemboy/Anibale Fly/Politologue/Waiting Patiently) at 33/1
which takes the book up to 116.5%.

My prices (in brackets) add up to 92.8% and of the 33/1 shots, I'd probably have Kemboy and Shattered Love on 25/1 with Killultagh Vic and Politologue on 40/1.

If you have a go, there's no point in being smart and having a 70% or 150% book unless you can make the business case.

 

[Quevega]

I was at Haydock yesterday, what an anti-climax :highly_amused:

I was hoping the bookies would massively over-react on Might Bite and they haven't really. I wouldn't completely rule him out because of his previous form but he's been too short for me to consider all summer and I'm happy to leave him now, the KG is a much more likely race for MB to win and he'll be a backable price for that now I'd imagine, although I think the field will have a few Irish challangers (Disko and Bellshill) that won't be afraid to have a crack at him now!

Presenting Percy fans (especially those on at 40/1 ) will clearly be pleased with the result today - but I completely see why you'd look for alternatives because 5/1 is still short regardless of what happened yesterday.

If I was starting completely fresh, with nothing backed, I'd say Road To Respect would be the best bet at 16s (18/1) because he's shown the best form so far this season and we know it's the target.

I couldn't have Native River at (standout 7/1) either. I don't see why Tizzard is so pleased really, getting beaten by Bristol De Mai on good ground isn't anything to crow about and he's way too short for me. I can't see any way I back him because he won't get anywhere near double figures and that is what I'd want.

Don't you think 9-1 for the Gold cup is an overreaction ?
I do, as the King George will likely thin out as usual (and he's still favourite and most likely winner), and the best of the Irish tend not to come, apart from the one great race a couple of years ago, don't think any came last year, and the King George is definitely more suited to Might Bite who may well have not been right yesterday, be surprised if Nicky don't find something (he usually does).

 

[Scooby91]

Ok punters, time to play Be The Bookie. As per the Champion Hurdle thread, working out your own book sometimes gives a clearer picture.

As a guide, Paddy Power, who some think have the best angle on Irish form (not necessarily true), go:

9/2 Presenting Percy (6/1)
7/1 Native River (10/1)
8/1 Might Bite (12/1)
10/1 Road To Respect (8/1)
16/1 Sizing John (16/1)
16/1 Footpad (16/1)
20/1 Bristol De Mai (20/1)
20/1 Bellshill (12/1)
20/1 Balko Des Flos (20/1)
20/1 Monalee (16/1)
25/1 Definitly Red (25/1)
25/1 Al Boum Photo (16/1)
25/1 Thistlecrack (16/1)
giving a 93.3% book
plus 7 (Shattered Love/Killultagh Vic/Terrefort/Kemboy/Anibale Fly/Politilogue/Waiting Patiently) at 33/1
which takes the book up to 113.6%.

My prices (in brackets) add up to 92.8% and of the 33/1 shots, I'd probably have Kemboy and Shattered Love on 25/1 with Killultagh Vic and Politilogue on 40/1.

If you have a go, there's no point in being smart and having a 70% or 150% book unless you can make the business case.

9/2 Presenting Percy 13/2
7/1 Native River 7/1
8/1 Might Bite 8/1
10/1 Road To Respect 8/1
16/1 Sizing John 16/1
16/1 Footpad 25/1
20/1 Bristol De Mai 14/1
20/1 Bellshill 20/1
20/1 Balko Des Flos 50/1
20/1 Monalee 16/1
25/1 Definitly Red 50/1
25/1 Al Boum Photo 10/1
25/1 Thistlecrack 25/1
Shattered love 16/1
Politologue 25/1
Kemboy 25/1

 

[boopa]

What price can I have for Disko?

 

[Kevloaf]

Don't you think 9-1 for the Gold cup is an overreaction ?
I do, as the King George will likely thin out as usual (and he's still favourite and most likely winner), and the best of the Irish tend not to come, apart from the one great race a couple of years ago, don't think any came last year, and the King George is definitely more suited to Might Bite who may well have not been right yesterday, be surprised if Nicky don't find something (he usually does).

I was driving back at the time and wanted double jono to tell me he was double figures.... and he was 9/1 - so just about no

I guess I'd rather take him at 4/1 for the King George than 9/1 for the Gold CUp after yesterday and play it that way



I have £50 in free bets from yesterday so I could potentially have that at the 8/1. I'm not ruling him out, I just wanted him to be bigger....

 

[archie]

What price can I have for Disko?

I omitted him from the 33/1 list. Probably about right although you can get 50/1 elsewhere. I'll update the original post.

 

[boopa]

Assuming all were fit and well. Put these in order of staying the Gold Cup trip on good to soft.

Monalee
Politilogue
Kemboy
Disko
Thistlecrack
Balko Des Flos
Footpad

There's a lot of non-stayers in there for me. Interested to see your opinions.

 

[Quevega]

Assuming all were fit and well. Put these in order of staying the Gold Cup trip on good to soft.

Monalee
Politilogue
Kemboy
Disko
Thistlecrack
Balko Des Flos
Footpad

There's a lot of non-stayers in there for me. Interested to see your opinions.

Balko Des Flos
Kemboy
Thistlecrack
Monalee
Disko
Other two not tested over jumps yet so no idea, but I'd be tempted to put Footpad top of the list on my eye, and Politologue bottom.

 

[archie]

Assuming all were fit and well. Put these in order of staying the Gold Cup trip on good to soft.

Monalee
Politilogue
Kemboy
Disko
Thistlecrack
Balko Des Flos
Footpad

There's a lot of non-stayers in there for me. Interested to see your opinions.

That's not a legitimate question though. They would all 'stay' the Gold Cup trip if the opposition was weak enough. Just because one horse finishes in front of another, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's a better stayer.
Which do you think are non-stayers?

 

[Scooby91]

Assuming all were fit and well. Put these in order of staying the Gold Cup trip on good to soft.

Monalee
Politilogue
Kemboy
Disko
Thistlecrack
Balko Des Flos
Footpad

There's a lot of non-stayers in there for me. Interested to see your opinions.

Footpad wouldn't stay imo. Theres no way he'll go here anyway.

Monalee is debatable how well he finishes his races, however he expended energy last year, he diddnt do it 1st time up this year he looks to have relaxed and matured to my eye.

Politologue we'll find out somewhat in the king George. I'd be open to him staying the king George trip. But I personally hope it comes up soft so he won t run.

Balko des flos just isn't that good his form either side of his Ryanair run is bang average. No reason he wouldn't stay.

Disko would stay. Would take a leap of faith on him with a fractured skull and countless previous injuries/ setbacks from a young age. To think he could be at he peak/ or have improved.

 

[Quevega]

That's not a legitimate question though. They would all 'stay' the Gold Cup trip if the opposition was weak enough. Just because one horse finishes in front of another, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's a better stayer.
Which do you think are non-stayers?

Yeah, I dont' agree with the non stayers thought process either, but my list is based on who I'd favour (right now).

 

[boopa]

When is a Gold Cup weak and run at a slow pace? It always a stamina test.

 

[archie]

So which are the non-stayers?

 

[Quevega]

Footpad wouldn't stay imo. Theres no way he'll go here anyway.

Monalee is debatable how well he finishes his races, however he expended energy last year, he diddnt do it 1st time up this year he looks to have relaxed and matured to my eye.

Politologue we'll find out somewhat in the king George. I'd be open to him staying the king George trip. But I personally hope it comes up soft so he won t run.

Balko des flos just isn't that good his form either side of his Ryanair run is bang average. No reason he wouldn't stay.

Disko would stay. Would take a leap of faith on him with a fractured skull and countless previous injuries/ setbacks from a young age. To think he could be at he peak/ or have improved.

Balko des flos has two stand out performances in his form, in the two best races he's ran in, which makes him a dangerous outsider in all his big races. The poor runs mean he is a risk, but I think you'll always get a price accordingly.

Hope we see Footpad stepped up in trip as he's potentially better IMO . Hi jumping was so good last year he could have gone any trip and been competitive.

 

[boopa]

So which are the non-stayers?

I don't think Politilogue, Kemboy or Monalee would stay they race too keen. Balko Des Flos I'm not sure about. Disko I think would stay, just keeps galloping and was strong to the line over 3m. Footpad will improve over further but a doubtful stayer. Thistlecrack is an odd one, travels too strong but has proven it stays. Wouldn't bet a horse with that profile though.