• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Kevloaf said:
He's 11/4, not 4/11

He won't have chance to beat all the horses he'll be up against, because they want to beat them on one very specific day, and they've been very clear about it.

He'll be in better form on Gold Cup day than he was in today, and today he's beaten a decent group of animals.

In terms of ability, there is nothing not to like.

He hasn't proven yet he can beat Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux, Native River, or Thistlecrack, Might Bite etc... but his overall profile means I am incredibly confident that he will...


I think he's a better 11/4 shot than Santini is, straight off the bat!
If I wasn't on, I WOULD be backing him at his current price, (I'd certainly want things 'rolling up' on him!)
Click to expand...

I'd have him over most other favourites at the festival and I don't get the knocking of his price either. He's going in lots of multiples this week.
 
Percy has an OR of 169 and a Timeform rating of 165p.

To put it in perspective, he is officially joint fifth rated (with 3 others) of the likely Gold Cup runners and barely gets in the Timeform top ten.
 
archie said:
Percy has an OR of 169 and a Timeform rating of 165p.

To put it in perspective, he is officially joint fifth rated (with 3 others) of the likely Gold Cup runners and barely gets in the Timeform top ten.
Click to expand...

Do you think that rating is the ceiling of his ability Archie? I certainly don't. He's been given that rating on the back of a season racing against novices and it's always difficult to achieve a sky high rating as a result.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Do you think that rating is the ceiling of his ability Archie? I certainly don't. He's been given that rating on the back of a season racing against novices and it's always difficult to achieve a sky high rating as a result.
Click to expand...

He can certainly improve but he is a year older than many of last season's novices so there's no guarantee that he's improved as much as the likes of Al Boum Photo. His hurdle run today was only 3 or 4lb better than a year ago so, until he goes over fences again it's an unanswered question. As it stands, he hasn't put in a career performance that justifies 11/4.
 
archie said:
Percy has an OR of 169 and a Timeform rating of 165p.

To put it in perspective, he is officially joint fifth rated (with 3 others) of the likely Gold Cup runners and barely gets in the Timeform top ten.
Click to expand...

Faugheen_Machine said:
Do you think that rating is the ceiling of his ability Archie? I certainly don't. He's been given that rating on the back of a season racing against novices and it's always difficult to achieve a sky high rating as a result.
Click to expand...

I'd be interested to know how many Gold Cup winners had a Higher OR before they won the Gold Cup than after it?

Well, not that interested - but it' clear PP hasn't run in a race to allow himself a higher rating yet.... and Frodon being within 7 lbs of Altior makes talking about ratings a little bit redundant for me.
 
Last edited:
archie said:
He can certainly improve but he is a year older than many of last season's novices so there's no guarantee that he's improved as much as the likes of Al Boum Photo. His hurdle run today was only 3 or 4lb better than a year ago so, until he goes over fences again it's an unanswered question. As it stands, he hasn't put in a career performance that justifies 11/4.
Click to expand...

I always look to see what price I would be comfortable laying him at, and I wouldn't be laying the 11/4.

Does he even need to improve to win the Gold Cup? The ratings suggest he would but I take those ratings with a punch of salt
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd be interested to know how many Gold Cup winners had a Higher OR before they won the Gold Cup than after it?

Well, not that interested - but it' clear PP hasn't run in a race to allow himself a higher rating yet.... and Frodon being within 7 lbs of Altior makes talking about ratings a little bit redundant for me.
Click to expand...

And Waiting Patiently within 5lbs of Altior :highly_amused:

The list is endless and agree about ratings
 
ComplyOrDie said:
And Waiting Patiently within 5lbs of Altior :highly_amused:

The list is endless and agree about ratings
Click to expand...

Laughable isn’t it. Altior could give Frodon 20lbs and still win doing cartwheels
 
Istabraq said:
Brave statements there Kev.
Not convinced NR has anything to prove either and having been tried over unsuitable distances this year I’m of the view he has only enhanced his crudentials
Click to expand...

Is the chance for NR not dependent on the ground, I can't imagine other runners not travelling well enough to keep him in their sights if the fez is run in something significantly less bog like.
 
169 is an exceptional rating after a novice season.
He's not had a chance to improve that yet.
Coneygree won the gold cup as a novice and ended up on 172,
He's only 8.
Has had 18 runs, and only five chases.
Loads of room for improvement, and no reason why he won't.

His price today is simply bookmakers taking/tempting in the mug money on recency bias.
He'll likely be bigger nearer the day as he's unlikely to meet anything of real note in the red mills chase, and could even get beat if they go no gallop.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Is the chance for NR not dependent on the ground, I can't imagine other runners not travelling well enough to keep him in their sights if the fez is run in something significantly less bog like.
Click to expand...

Not for me Mr M
He won a Hennessy on good ground and went close in Minella Rocco’s 4 miler, he was under 3l behind Sizing John in a good ground gold cup having clouted the fence at the top of the hill.
Game of opinions of course but his runs this year have impressed me, a horse with his profile had no right to make a King George podium Which suggests to me that he’s at least as good as he was last season.
Of course PP is a good horse and a worthy fav but at double that ones price I think NR represents better value
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Decent run back by Percy , and will be a player in March IF he gets his ground.

Will always be a doubt about him in my mind. Only horse he met of any note Our Duke beat him , dont particulary think Monalee ,Elegant Escape ,Alboom Photo are grade 1 horses either so unless you on at sexy prices 11/4 far to short strictly on what he done so far.
 
The Beast said:
Decent run back by Percy , and will be a player in March IF he gets his ground.

Will always be a doubt about him in my mind. Only horse he met of any note Our Duke beat him , dont particulary think Monalee ,Elegant Escape ,Alboom Photo are grade 1 horses either so unless you on at sexy prices 11/4 far to short strictly on what he done so far.
Click to expand...

If he gets his ground?
What is his ground? He's got a Cheltenham win on GOOD in the Pertemps and SOFT in an RSA. Don't let the chat around the ground this season confuse things... he goes on anything! They just wanted to start him off on a specific type...

Elegant Escape has won a Welsh National, and he thrashed him.
Al Boum Photo beat a Ladbroke winner (Total Recall) and todays Thystes Winner (Invitation Only) easily on New Years Day
Monalee was 2nd in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown.
He walloped them, WALLOPED. They're good horses and he's better than them.

When Our Duke beat him, you don't seriously think that was his best form do you? Although not like he was disgraced behind an Irish National winner when he was still a novice!


Try again :p
 
Kevloaf said:
If he gets his ground?
What is his ground? He's got a Cheltenham win on GOOD in the Pertemps and SOFT in an RSA. Don't let the chat around the ground this season confuse things... he goes on anything! They just wanted to start him off on a specific type...

Elegant Escape has won a Welsh National, and he thrashed him.
Al Boum Photo beat a Ladbroke winner (Total Recall) and todays Thystes Winner (Invitation Only) easily on New Years Day
Monalee was 2nd in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown.
He walloped them, WALLOPED. They're good horses and he's better than them.

When Our Duke beat him, you don't seriously think that was his best form do you? Although not like he was disgraced behind an Irish National winner when he was still a novice!


Try again :p
Click to expand...


Spot on. The great horses go on any ground. If you go Mack to phil Reynolds interview after the Pertemps they said the better ground bought the best out of him. Only wanted soft ground this time of the year so it wouldn’t jar the horse or injure him. He’s my ideal of the Gold cup winner was before this race. Lightly campaigned with one day in mind.
 
Istabraq said:
Not for me Mr M
He won a Hennessy on good ground and went close in Minella Rocco’s 4 miler, he was under 3l behind Sizing John in a good ground gold cup having clouted the fence at the top of the hill.
Game of opinions of course but his runs this year have impressed me, a horse with his profile had no right to make a King George podium Which suggests to me that he’s at least as good as he was last season.
Of course PP is a good horse and a worthy fav but at double that ones price I think NR represents better value
Click to expand...

I'd agree with you Istabraq in general , about Native river , I wouldn't write him off.
Hasn't finished out of the Three in 15 runs , I think it's going to be a great gold cup.
And adding in the newbie's to the mix.
 
Kevloaf said:
If he gets his ground?
What is his ground? He's got a Cheltenham win on GOOD in the Pertemps and SOFT in an RSA. Don't let the chat around the ground this season confuse things... he goes on anything! They just wanted to start him off on a specific type...

Elegant Escape has won a Welsh National, and he thrashed him.
Al Boum Photo beat a Ladbroke winner (Total Recall) and todays Thystes Winner (Invitation Only) easily on New Years Day
Monalee was 2nd in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown.
He walloped them, WALLOPED. They're good horses and he's better than them.

When Our Duke beat him, you don't seriously think that was his best form do you? Although not like he was disgraced behind an Irish National winner when he was still a novice!


Try again :p
Click to expand...

I think Alboum would have gone very close . Ruby thinks second. Some people on here think 5th for what ever reason.
One things for sure. He's improved on what was his 7th run of his life . Silly talk to take the RSA as confirmation. PP has done nothing since. Won the rsa on soft and was Beat by our duke beforehand. Alboum has done everything since. You can't deny that. PP has to step up. Nothing at all to say that right now he's better than Alboum photo. Literally nothing. Not sure you realise that he has to step up on what he did in the RSA. Believe me he does

And you can't use elegant escape. He was outpaced. He's no where near good enough for a GC. Can't go with them.


What a load of rubbish about what a great prep. Campaigned with, 1 day in mind. ...
What it is is picking up an easy pot in the galmoy hurdle. Then Another easy pot. Avoiding all good opposition, getting the money in the satchel, And then taking your chance in the GC.
He avoided the savils chase at Christmas that alboum ohoto won on the ground pp wanted. There's no denying that. He's took a soft touch and his fans are saying what a great thing. And now he's avoiding the Irish gold cup. . Its poor for the sport.
 
Last edited:
Nothing at all to say that right now he's better than Alboum photo. Literally nothing.

What, apart from the time he won the RSA with his head in his chest by ten lengths and ABP couldn't even complete? We can talk until the cows come home about what may or may not have happened had ABP stayed on his feet, but nobosy has any idea and I think its fantasy to suggest ABP could have won the race. PP beat him fair and square yet there is 'literally nothing' to say he's better? That doesnt make any sense.

Of course ABP could improve past PP but he hasnt shown that yet. ABP has to prove he can beat PP... and not the other way around.
 
I'm not intending to knock PP but it's only 14 months ago that he was beaten fair and square on his second chase start by Jury Duty and Shattered Love. PP was clearly expected to win that day as he went off Evens Favourite but he wasn't close to the front two over the closing stages. The race was the Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown and it was his second run of the season so in theory he ought to have been right enough to win this one. The ground was soft to heavy but I keep hearing that he has the class to go on any ground...

Just keeping an open mind based on all the chase evidence in front of us, as like some others I'm a bit concerned that so much credence is being placed on last year's RSA.

It will be interesting to see what Davy Russell says or doesn't say at the various Chelt preview evenings.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom