Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

[BigChaang]

I just googled it and theres an RP article

:encouragement:

 

[kinloch brae]

Added Edwulf to Total Recall. I suppose he might be bigger on the day? The two big question marks are the value of his last win and whether he can do it back to back. On the plus side he is very lightly raced and was in the process of running very well at last year's Festival. A decent pace seems likely and I can see him picking at least some of them them off. I presume Derek O'Connor will retain the ride.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Added Edwulf to Total Recall. I suppose he might be bigger on the day? The two big question marks are the value of his last win and whether he can do it back to back. On the plus side he is very lightly raced and was in the process of running very well at last year's Festival. A decent pace seems likely and I can see him picking at least some of them them off. I presume Derek O'Connor will retain the ride.

He was my idea of a big odds ew play, but Killultagh Vic’s fall at Leopardstown put pay to that idea.

Technically Geraghty could be on Edwulf still but yes you’d imagine O’Connor will be back on board.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've just added Djakadam 1 pt e/w at 40/1 (33s with Ladbrokes, boosted to 40/1)

The negatives are obvious... not won it 3 times before (neither had The Fellow - as the Mullins came keep telling us) and this season he hasn't been in the best form..... BUT, you only need to go back to his last run last season and Gold Cup winner (and 6/1 shot for the race Sizing John only beat him a shoulder)

I do think 40/1 massively under-estimates him based on his Gold Cup runs too...

2015 - 2nd behind Coneygree (beaten 1.5L)
2016 - 2nd behind Don Cossack (beaten 4.5L)
2017 - 4th behind Sizing John (beaten 3.25L)

40/1 is simply too big a price for a horse who's Gold CUp record is 224 - I believe he was unlucky to be beaten in to 4th last year as well because he got the last totally wrong! It isn't like he's been beaten out of sight either..... all three of those runs are really good!

I don't buy the "he doesn't stay" either... you don't come 2nd twice if you don't stay. There might be a STRONGER stayer, but to say he doesn't stay is just plain wrong IMO.

The Giant Bolster wen't off 14/1 when he placed on his 3rd attempt and 33/1 when pulling up behind Coneygree on his 4th attempt.... now Djakadam might Pull Up....but he's 40/1 and a better horse than The Giant Bolster was.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Nothing wrong with that bet Kev. Could run a big race and is clearly overpriced.

I have been against him in the last two gold cups, but he was much shorter in the market on those occasions. How can he be twice the price of Total Recall? He certainly shouldn't be.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Ruby's choice will be interesting, isn't Djakadam target most likely to be the Ryanair

 

[Kevloaf]

Nothing wrong with that bet Kev. Could run a big race and is clearly overpriced.

I have been against him in the last two gold cups, but he was much shorter in the market on those occasions. How can he be twice the price of Total Recall? He certainly shouldn't be.

Yes I remember plenty of healthy debate last year as I thought he was a rock solid each way bet at 16/1 and 12/1. You were just about right

He's the same price as Bachasson :very_drunk:

 

[Coneygme]

40s is a silly price. Can't see him winning it but could definitely place.

 

[Kevloaf]

Ruby's choice will be interesting, isn't Djakadam target most likely to be the Ryanair

Ruby on Killultagh Vic I'd say is pretty certain.

Paul to keep the ride on Total Recall....?

I don't think they've said Djakadam is going anywhere but the Gold Cup.... despite questioning all season (and beyond!)

NRNB anyway though

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Yes I remember plenty of healthy debate last year as I thought he was a rock solid each way bet at 16/1 and 12/1. You were just about right

He's the same price as Bachasson :very_drunk:

I followed him myself each of the last 3 years, always travels well, be a shame if he doesn't turn up here

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yes I remember plenty of healthy debate last year as I thought he was a rock solid each way bet at 16/1 and 12/1. You were just about right

He's the same price as Bachasson :very_drunk:

You've talked me into it and I've taken the price boosted 40/1 ew.

I'll get slaughtered by mates when I tell them, as I've been very vocal about him having no chance in the Gold Cup the last 2 years..

 

[Kevloaf]

You've talked me into it and I've taken the price boosted 40/1 ew.

I'll get slaughtered by mates when I tell them, as I've been very vocal about him having no chance in the Gold Cup the last 2 years..

:highly_amused: I suppose you will have to go with the line that "every horse has its price"

Have to admit I expected to get slated...but plenty of time for that yet...

 

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone think the fact they're going to ride Might Bite with more restraint is actually a negative for him?

They are on record saying that because of his Cheltenham "quirk" they don't want him to know he's near the end of the race until after the last. Therefore won't hit him with the whip until well after the last[/I] That has to be a negative?

His best performance was in the Kauto Star... where he just absolutely blitzed them from the start with a strong gallop. He was doing the same in the RSA and would have won incredibly easily.... BUT for the wandering to the right.

He was not anywhere near as impressive at Aintree and although he still beat Whisper, and that form would look 'solid' enough... it isn't what you'd want about a 3/1F in the Gold Cup is it?

If you KNEW he'd run exactly the same in the RSA and NOT wander off to the right, he'd be an absolute good thing in my mind... if he runs like he did at Aintree, for me.,.. he won't be using his assets.

Trying to think of a good example... perhaps Coneygree? If Coneygree hadn't been sent on from the front, would he have won his Gold Cup? I very much doubt it... because his run style was his best asset.

I think the fact they've said they are NOT going to make the running is a negative...I think I'd want him to go out in front, do his thing and I'd take the chance that he DOESN'T do the crazy thing.... rather than just clip his wings a little...?

What do you guiys think...

 

[darlojim]

Does anyone think the fact they're going to ride Might Bite with more restraint is actually a negative for him?

They are on record saying that because of his Cheltenham "quirk" they don't want him to know he's near the end of the race until after the last. Therefore won't hit him with the whip until well after the last[/I] That has to be a negative?

His best performance was in the Kauto Star... where he just absolutely blitzed them from the start with a strong gallop. He was doing the same in the RSA and would have won incredibly easily.... BUT for the wandering to the right.

He was not anywhere near as impressive at Aintree and although he still beat Whisper, and that form would look 'solid' enough... it isn't what you'd want about a 3/1F in the Gold Cup is it?

If you KNEW he'd run exactly the same in the RSA and NOT wander off to the right, he'd be an absolute good thing in my mind... if he runs like he did at Aintree, for me.,.. he won't be using his assets.

Trying to think of a good example... perhaps Coneygree? If Coneygree hadn't been sent on from the front, would he have won his Gold Cup? I very much doubt it... because his run style was his best asset.

I think the fact they've said they are NOT going to make the running is a negative...I think I'd want him to go out in front, do his thing and I'd take the chance that he DOESN'T do the crazy thing.... rather than just clip his wings a little...?

What do you guiys think...

Have to admit that is a massive worry for me also.. He was absolutely obliterating them in the RSA last year and I cant remember too many festival races being torn apart like that one was. His ability to keep up that insane pace for a long duration is pure talent. All i wish is that a good 2 mile chaser could jump in half way round to keep him concentrated up front :highly_amused:

I'm sure Nicky will know best of course though.. hopefully he can just quicken away from them after the last. One thing for sure he is going to give me a heart attack until he crosses that line

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Might Bite went on again last year when Whisper came to him, so maybe they think he gets too far ahead, maybe they're hoping to send him on around 3 out, that way they keep a little in the tank for the extra 21/2f, perhaps Hendo thinks this will help him to see it out

 

[jono]

Does anyone think the fact they're going to ride Might Bite with more restraint is actually a negative for him?

They are on record saying that because of his Cheltenham "quirk" they don't want him to know he's near the end of the race until after the last. Therefore won't hit him with the whip until well after the last[/I] That has to be a negative?

His best performance was in the Kauto Star... where he just absolutely blitzed them from the start with a strong gallop. He was doing the same in the RSA and would have won incredibly easily.... BUT for the wandering to the right.

He was not anywhere near as impressive at Aintree and although he still beat Whisper, and that form would look 'solid' enough... it isn't what you'd want about a 3/1F in the Gold Cup is it?

If you KNEW he'd run exactly the same in the RSA and NOT wander off to the right, he'd be an absolute good thing in my mind... if he runs like he did at Aintree, for me.,.. he won't be using his assets.

Trying to think of a good example... perhaps Coneygree? If Coneygree hadn't been sent on from the front, would he have won his Gold Cup? I very much doubt it... because his run style was his best asset.

I think the fact they've said they are NOT going to make the running is a negative...I think I'd want him to go out in front, do his thing and I'd take the chance that he DOESN'T do the crazy thing.... rather than just clip his wings a little...?

What do you guiys think...

Absolutely agree. I mentioned similar doubts after his King George win. Long term at may may be the best for the horse but it's taking away his best asset by far. What set him apart last season was his ability to jump out over 3 miles at a blistering gallop and keep going, taking every other horse out of their comfort zone and having them beat a long way from home. You only have to listen to the likes of Ruby Walsh when he talks about him - it's that that sets him apart. I'm convinced if you asked every other jockey that will line up on Good Cup day whether they'd want Might Bite to repeat his RSA tactics (minus the end of course!) Or be held up...they'd ask for the latter. That's the part of him that will win a Gold Cup for me. They run the risk otherwise if holding onto him too long and then getting outstayed. He's an exceptional talented horse but he's not the beat stayer in the line up. I don't have any doubts for the trio with him but if he is say in a line wirh Our Duke and Native River coming to the last...I'd say both beat him up the hill

 

[somer1]

Could it be Henderson putting out false info to the other trainers?

 

[Kevloaf]

Could it be Henderson putting out false info to the other trainers?

Not in my opinion.... whether they knew Might Bite was going to go from the front or not, they can't really stop it... they'll just be watching with the rest of us as he comes around the bend!

 

[Birds Nest]

It might have something to do with the RSA and gold cup being run on different courses, Henderson might be worried about the more stamina sapping new course and would prefer might bite to be held up because of it.

 

[Kevloaf]

It might have something to do with the RSA and gold cup being run on different courses, Henderson might be worried about the more stamina sapping new course and would prefer might bite to be held up because of it.

I'd take that as a negative too.... whatever the reason is...it can't be a positive?