Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

[HardyEustace]

Can’t see it. Connections have road to respect as their Gold Cup hope I guess now as well, maybe it will be easier to get him fit and make more sense for him to be aimed at the Ryanair now if anything

That's my thinking. Disko is still only a 7yo so can't see them chucking him in the deep end of a Gold Cup after just one run this season.
Much more likely to go Ryanair if they can get him fit in time and then step him up in trip at Punchestown in April with a Gold Cup campaign in mind next season.

 

[Robbante]

Thats ehat i was thinking as well but he wants 3 miles. They said they made a mistake running him in the wrong race last year also......

And Yorkhill/Top Notch have him well held over a shorter trip as well. Be some training performance if they can get him ready for the Gold Cup now, one to write off I think

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Wouldn't that quote be a bit of a worry if you've backed Blacklion...........

Why?

The biggest worry for me is that he doesn’t run. Him being firstly entered and now getting prepped by running in the race is a positive.

He was 40/1 because of the doubt about him taking part. Now it looks like he will and he’s a lot shorter.

 

[doctorwu]

Why?

The biggest worry for me is that he doesn’t run. Him being firstly entered and now getting prepped by running in the race is a positive.

He was 40/1 because of the doubt about him taking part. Now it looks like he will and he’s a lot shorter.

It sounds like an after thought to me. He'd need to be trained for this race to have a serious chance, and not a prep for the GN.

 

[Zipiter]

Remember last year when Gordon Elliott was mad about running Empire of Dirt in the Gold Cup instead of Ryanair? No talk of him this year...anyone know why?
Ive nibbled a bit at the 160 available on the machine....

 

[Kevloaf]

Remember last year when Gordon Elliott was mad about running Empire of Dirt in the Gold Cup instead of Ryanair? No talk of him this year...anyone know why?
Ive nibbled a bit at the 160 available on the machine....

HE didn't seem tore fire when 4th in the Ryanair (never really 'travelled' in that race) and then PU a month later.... not seen since.... wouldn't be your ideal prep I suppose - can see why he is 3 figure odds myself BUT I don't think you can knock any bet at 3 figures .... clearly has ability

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think Coney island will be a runner in the irish gold cup also so looks likely iv just got kilultagh vic for the race.

If road to respect runs and wins im probably going to have to play him ew in the gold cup.

Not the most inspiring race currently

You can lay Our Duke and you'll make money

Thats ehat i was thinking as well but he wants 3 miles. They said they made a mistake running him in the wrong race last year also......

I would love to see Disko in the Ryanair... I think they got the 'ride' wrong more than the trip. If he is a 3 miler, he might still be more Ryanair suited than Gold Cup.... plenty of good 3 milers get found out at 3m2f

I couldn't back Disko for the Gold Cup on the back of his season at his price... I'd want 40/1+

 

[Scooby91]

You can lay Our Duke and you'll make money



I would love to see Disko in the Ryanair... I think they got the 'ride' wrong more than the trip. If he is a 3 miler, he might still be more Ryanair suited than Gold Cup.... plenty of good 3 milers get found out at 3m2f

I couldn't back Disko for the Gold Cup on the back of his season at his price... I'd want 40/1+

I couldn't back him for the ryaniar either. No juice in his price. And hes held on all known form at 2m4

 

[Kevloaf]

Continuing my look through at Friday's races in terms of my own position... Gold Cup .... and before I get any abuse, I WILL be altering my position by laying off my stake for a number of these... so I won't have an all green book.

32 pts staked in total.... (almost all of these are each way but return is win)

Mite Bite - returns 34 pts
Native River - returns 36 pts
Coney Island returns 126 pts
Our Duke returns 122 pts
Minella Rocco returns 32 pts
Blaklion returns 76 pts
Djakadam returns 33 pts
Outlander returns 98 pts
Coneygree returns 32 pts
Anibale Fly returns 75 pts
Killultagh Vic returns 96 pts
Acapella returns 38 pts
Cloudy Dream returns 36 pts

Which means currently I am cheering on, Our Duke, Coney Island, Blaklion, Outlander, Killultagh Vic, Anibale Fly

I thought at the start of the season I'd only be backing Might Bite and Our Duke for this race, but it hasn't worked out that way!

Of the horses above, that return my stake or are just a small profit, I am OBVIOUSLY most interested in Might Bite. He's likely to go off fav and he's been in my top 2 for this race since the start of the season (the other being Our Duke). I did feel like the King George would be his optimum though, and although he won, it wasn't the performance I expected... so with hindsight I am not as keen on his chance as I was... however, his profile is undeniably good. I haven't yet decided how to 'weight' this horse.

Native River being beaten in the race last year and with their form (or lack of) this season I am unlikely to get involved at their current prices again. Same comments apply to Djakadam too actually. He was my each way banker last year and let me down (only just) so happy to ignore him for win purposes this year.

Coneygree I'm not expecting to feature, was one of my first bets (think it was in my opening post actually!) but got no faith at all in him anymore. Acapella Bourgious unlikely to be here, or feature anyway.... Cloudy Dream lively enough but no strong opinion on him winning so happy to leave that for now.

Horses that would be bad for me at the moment...
Sizing John - previous winner. Obviously worried, never been a backable price IMO
Road To Respect - Good profile, I didn't think he was anywhere near good enough to win a Gold Cup though - obviously worried.
Bristol De Mai - NO interest in backing BDM at all. Wouldn't at any less than 50/1. Not worried.
Disko - I really, really like Disko, never been a price/time for me to want to back him though... setbacks aren't ideal for him... a bit worried.
Total Recall - Not good enough, won't be on my mind. BEating Whisper getting weight isn't Gold Cup Form. Not worried
Whisper - Getting beaten by Total Recall isn't Gold Cup form... well held in the RSA, too short. Not worried
Double Shuffle - Hadn't thought about until just now... 40/1 is fair enough but no rush. Slight worry
Tea For Two - Cheltenham isn't his track, not worried at all.
Valsuer Lido - 50/1 is alright, slight worry
Few others... not really concerned about

---------------------

I'll wait to see the result of the Irish Gold Cup before doing anything... but at this stage, I'm confident I want Might Bite for more return, (at the expense of potential returns elsewhere)... I imagine after laying off a few that I've backed that I don't really fancy at all.

The ones I want running for win purposes are (at this stage):
Might Bite,
Our Duke
Coney Island,
Sizing John,
Blaklion,
Killultagh Vic

and I'll adjust accordingly, the week before the race.

 

[BigChaang]

I am wondering if Coney island will go Ryanair chase , rather than Gold cup . , ( sorry Kev ) , Just think he's only young and
whether they'll look after him and go gold cup next year.

 

[Kevloaf]

I am wondering if Coney island will go Ryanair chase , rather than Gold cup . , ( sorry Kev ) , Just think he's only young and
whether they'll look after him and go gold cup next year.

Yeah very possible. I'd make him 3rd fav at very least in the Ryanair regardless of what is likely to turn up

 

[Robbante]

I’m coming round to Minella Rocco having a decent chance in this. If they go at a faster pace than last year then I’d give him a good chance of bettering his performance in last year’s race. Connections insist he’s still improving, his form this season on unsuitable ground has been been encouraging, 20s still very fair

 

[mayo]

Donn

( Second season chasers good in this ?)

Road To Respect
Road To Respect may not have received the credit that he was due for winning the Leopardstown Christmas Chase. It is true that his main rivals Sizing John and Yorkhill and Djakadam under-performed, but there was still an awful lot to like about the performance that Road To Respect put up to win the race.

The pace was strong from flagfall, set initially by Balko Des Flos, then by Yorkhill, then by Balko Des Flos again, and Road To Respect settled nicely off it. Noel Meade’s horse settled better here in his first-time hood than he had at Down Royal, when he was just run out of it by Outlander after travelling like a winner. He seemed to be happier going left-handed here too. He didn’t give away ground at his fences as he had done at Down Royal and on his previous run at Punchestown, like Down Royal, a right-handed track.

Sean Flanagan delivered the Gigginstown House horse with a well-timed run. He was checked a little after the third last fence as he ran up in behind Sizing John, but he was quickly back on an even keel. He got in a little tight to the second last fence, but he made nice ground on the run around the home turn, joined Balko Des Flos and Outlander at the last, and stayed on well up the run-in to win by over a length. He was strong all the way to the line.

There are parallels between this win and Might Bite’s win in the King George. They are parallel races for starters, the top three-mile Grade 1 chases over Christmas in Ireland and Britain respectively. As with Road To Respect at Leopardstown, Might Bite’s three main rivals, Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Fox Norton, under-performed at Kempton. Might Bite beat a 151-rated rival, the 50/1 shot Double Shuffle, into second place, he beat him by a length. Road To Respect beat the 157-rated 66/1 shot Balko Des Flos by a length and a quarter. Both horses were novices last season, both Grade 1-winning novices, yet Might Bite is 7/2 favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, whereas Road To Respect is available at 11/1.

The other thing about the Leopardstown race is that the pace held up well. Balko Des Flos and Outlander led or raced prominently throughout and they finished second and third respectively, five and a half lengths clear of Minella Rocco in fourth. Road To Respect came from the rear to win the race, he beat the two early leaders and he clocked a good time, 0.10secs/furlong faster than Racing Post par. He will probably need to improve again if he is going to win a Gold Cup, but he has just turned seven, he still has potential for progression as a staying chaser. He is on an upward trajectory, his last two runs have been the best two runs of his life, the latter in a hood, which you have to think will be retained now. Also, he is one for one at Cheltenham, he was a really impressive winner of the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase at the Festival last March, and that was after making a serious enough mistake at the first fence when he got knocked sideways, and racing fairly wide throughout. And he goes well on good ground. There is a lot to like about him as a Gold Cup prospect.

Leopardstown, 28th December 2017

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Does Definitely Red come into the reckoning after that ?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

This is surely the plan for him now Ista. Brian Ellison having a Gold Cup contender is great for the Northern circuit but I can't see winning.

 

[jono]

Does Definitely Red come into the reckoning after that ?

Yep. Ellison said the following after the race:

He's just got better every year and the plan this year was to keep him fresh. Today would tell us if we went for the Gold Cup, so we'll go now.

"He wants good ground, I think he'll be better on it as he's not short of speed. He just doesn't like it tacky.

He wouldn't be on my shortlist but even so I'd be vary wary about backing him after today's race. Even if the trainer states good ground will suit, on the ground like it was today, i'm sure that will have left a mark on the horse and it really isn't that long to go now until the festival. I think you mentioned a good stat Ista on horses who had run on heavy the year they take in the Gold Cup?

 

[BigChaang]

Do you think that's why Bristol de mai has ' dropped off ' ? , A big run on the Heavy ground taking too much out of him.
Certainly a good thing to bear in mind when picking your horses .

 

[jono]

Do you think that's why Bristol de mai has ' dropped off ' ? , A big run on the Heavy ground taking too much out of him.
Certainly a good thing to bear in mind when picking your horses .

It could be a contributing factor but I certainly wouldn't have it as the main reason myself. At the time I thought whoever ran in that Betfair Chase including the winner that day could have it leave a mark for the rest of the season, particularly soon after. To the point where it looked a blessing in disguise that the likes of Might Bite and Sizing John skipped the race. But Tea For Two looked shot in that race but then got right back on track at Kempton only a month later and was only beaten 3 lengths.
If you take Tea For Two's form since the beginning of last season:

Ascot - 5th - Beaten 8.5L
Huntingdon - 5th - Beaten 6L
Kempton - 5th - Beaten 3.5L
Exeter - 5th - Beaten 17L
Cheltenham - UR
Aintree - 5th - Won
Aintree - 5th - Beaten 41L
Haydock - 5th - Beaten 67L
Kempton - 5th - Beaten 3L
Cheltenham - PU

So outside of his Aintree win last April he has been beaten out of sight in all races bar showing his very best form in the King George both times, despite this year having that race on heavy in the Betfair.

I just think Bristol de Mai is an absolute Haydock specialist. If the race had been run at Haydock in those conditions yesterday then we may very well have got a different outcome imo.

I do think it's an interesting angle and can see the case for it but my concern is running on such heavy ground this close to March rather than at any point in the season really.

 

[Kevloaf]

Definitely Red is a Grade 2 horse and that is where I see him staying.

8L win over American (who I really like, but isn't a G1 animal) and 7L over Cloudy Dream (who isn't G1 class at the moment) doesn't mean Definitely Red is G1 class.

The horses in yesterdays races bar BDM were Grand National types and all that has really happened in that he's been too good for them over 3m.

DR was beaten 8L by Blaklion at Wetherby in Feb 16 and not using that as literal form or anything like that, but Blaklion would be a better candidate for the Gold Cup and Grand National for me, and he's available at 33/1 - whereas Definitely Red is only now best price of 20/1...

 

[Kevloaf]

Mullins said: "Djakadam and Killultagh Vic will both run. I would imagine Paul will ride Killultagh Vic. He looks the one with more potential. Djakadam has been there and done it but has disappointed us twice this season. Killultagh Vic is a horse we like and he is most certainly a better chaser than hurdler. He gives his fences much more respect."

That seems a clear indication that they are hopefully Killultagh Vic is the number 1 Gold Cup horse this year, so 20/1 NRNB with 365 is a complete bet to nothing IMO.

If KV wins, he goes single figures and has Ruby on board.... if goes close, you're on a very live one still.... if he loses/doesn't stay, he runs in the Ryanair and you get your money back...

Worth remembering that it was around this time last year that Sizing John had never run over the trip over fences and was a NRNB price of 33/1..... you can get 33/1 for KV now but it isn't NRNB but ...

After the Irish Gold Cup, Killultagh Vic will either be SHORTER THAN 20/1 --- or not going to be running. I see that as close to a racing certainty as you can get...