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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

On Thistlecrack, how much do you think he will come on/need to come on from his re-appearance? I am not particularly keen on it, although it did Top Notch no harm at all last weekend! Thistlecrack was hardly a natural over his fences though and having a spin over hurdles won't do his jumping much good IMO.

I think although the King George will look a strong race on paper, I fully expect Might Bite to put in a dominating performance.... everything is in his favour from what we know.I think Thistlecrack will put in some almighty leaps and then a couple that halt his momentum and Might Bite won't be stopping.

As for the rest, huge leap of faith at single figures to think Fox Norton will be good enough, he'd NEED to improve to the step up and even that might not be enough IMO.

Sizing John might not run now, Douvan won't be. If I knew Djakadam was at 16s I'd play him each way as 3m at Kempton might be just up his street, albeit I don't think he'd trouble Might Bite over any distance at Kempton.

Tea For Two isn't good enough but I've seen worse 25/1 shots in a race that might not even have 8 viable runners?
 
Is this opening up for Yorkhill a bit? I’ve been against him to this point and don’t think his point form is anything special. But I rule out Bristol De Mai unless it’s deep ground (also worried that he’ll be over the top by March), Disko and Might Bite I’d be worried about the last couple of furlongs. Our Duke will obviously stay all day but not sure he has the class, Thistlecrack I don’t think the form is special over fences at 3m+. That leaves Yorkhill and Sizing John. It will surely be a tougher test than Sizing John had last year, and on breeding Yorkhill won’t have a problem with the trip and loves Cheltenham. If Ruby can keep him quiet for most of the race and ease him along he’s sure to travel well enough to be up there when it counts. Surely he could outpace Sizing John, who never seemed to have the toe for 2 miles unlike Yorkhill. He’s tempting me
 
Robante said:
Is this opening up for Yorkhill a bit? I’ve been against him to this point and don’t think his point form is anything special. But I rule out Bristol De Mai unless it’s deep ground (also worried that he’ll be over the top by March), Disko and Might Bite I’d be worried about the last couple of furlongs. Our Duke will obviously stay all day but not sure he has the class, Thistlecrack I don’t think the form is special over fences at 3m+. That leaves Yorkhill and Sizing John. It will surely be a tougher test than Sizing John had last year, and on breeding Yorkhill won’t have a problem with the trip and loves Cheltenham. If Ruby can keep him quiet for most of the race and ease him along he’s sure to travel well enough to be up there when it counts. Surely he could outpace Sizing John, who never seemed to have the toe for 2 miles unlike Yorkhill. He’s tempting me
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I’m at least at the point now where I don’t really entertain that he’ll line up elsewhere, barring injury to Faugheen. It’s the one race where Mullins/Ruby probably aren’t going to have a viable alternative for win purposes, and it’s the biggest race of the lot
 
Robante said:
Is this opening up for Yorkhill a bit? I’ve been against him to this point and don’t think his point form is anything special. But I rule out Bristol De Mai unless it’s deep ground (also worried that he’ll be over the top by March), Disko and Might Bite I’d be worried about the last couple of furlongs. Our Duke will obviously stay all day but not sure he has the class, Thistlecrack I don’t think the form is special over fences at 3m+. That leaves Yorkhill and Sizing John. It will surely be a tougher test than Sizing John had last year, and on breeding Yorkhill won’t have a problem with the trip and loves Cheltenham. If Ruby can keep him quiet for most of the race and ease him along he’s sure to travel well enough to be up there when it counts. Surely he could outpace Sizing John, who never seemed to have the toe for 2 miles unlike Yorkhill. He’s tempting me
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I was thinking about Yorkhill while driving today... I couldn't remember whether I have posted about being with or against him ... probably neither at this stage but him idling when hitting the front would worry me BUT I think with Faugheen and Douvan back, the coast is clear to aim arguably the most talented raw horse in training at the big one!

After he landed the Altior/Yorkhill double for me I thought his work for me was done.... but I am getting lured back in!
 
Just posted this in the ante post bit, but belongs here sorry.... just a couple of thoughts on the proven GC trip stayers

Re: Our Duke

I think he went to a huge price (25/1 which I took) and looking at the rest of the market, he's one of the only ones who is proven to stay the distance near the head of the market...

Thistle - not visually and not done it yet
SJ - definitely stays GC trip 7/1
MB - not proven yet, more suited to Kempton and 'hated' the hill...
Yorkhill - not been further than 2m5f yet ...
BDM - probably stays it?
NAtive River - stays 12/1
Douvan - no proof
Our Duke - STAYS 16/1
Djakadam - splits opinion, I say he does but last year was his year
Disko - unproven stayer
Coneygree - stays.25/1

Of those 4, at 7/1, 12/1, 16/1 and 25/1 I'd be witrh Our Duke still at 16/1 ... Coneygree you couldn't have ante post anyway.... and I always think about Syncronised not being class but staying.
 
Kevloaf said:
I was thinking about Yorkhill while driving today... I couldn't remember whether I have posted about being with or against him ... probably neither at this stage but him idling when hitting the front would worry me BUT I think with Faugheen and Douvan back, the coast is clear to aim arguably the most talented raw horse in training at the big one!

After he landed the Altior/Yorkhill double for me I thought his work for me was done.... but I am getting lured back in!
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Wylie said a couple of years ago he’d bought him to win a Gold Cup, this is his time, seize the moment! Maybe the longer trip will settle him down a little and if Ruby can bring him along quietly and not press the button til the final furlong the idling might not be an issue. Going left handed over a track he clearly thrives on, I can’t see when and where he’ll have a better chance
 
While I’m on Our Duke at 33s, Carlingford Lough used to stay all day but never got within 20 lengths of a GC
 
Hurricane fly said:
While I’m on Our Duke at 33s, Carlingford Lough used to stay all day but never got within 20 lengths of a GC
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Won an Irish Gold Cup in his defense BUT

Lord Windemere, Synchronised? They had no class and stayed all day too..... and Our Duke does have some class IMO

Don Poli has placed, On His Own, The Giant Bolster, Minella Rocco....

I'm just saying I've not lost faith thats all :)
 
What do we think will be on Yorkhill's itinerary this season? The John Durkan is obviously off the cards, but what about the Lexus, Irish Gold Cup and then straight to the big one? Think that's the most likely route myself, although it's possible he could go for the Cotswolds chase in January. After what happened Thistlecrack last season though, the top trainers may think twice about letting their stars face the dreaded hill so early in the season.
 
Montjeu said:
What do we think will be on Yorkhill's itinerary this season? The John Durkan is obviously off the cards, but what about the Lexus, Irish Gold Cup and then straight to the big one? Think that's the most likely route myself, although it's possible he could go for the Cotswolds chase in January. After what happened Thistlecrack last season though, the top trainers may think twice about letting their stars face the dreaded hill so early in the season.
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I don’t think he’ll race at Cheltenham until the festival, and it’s logical his first try at close to the trip would be in the Irish Gold Cup. Not sure if they’d go the Lexus first up or just give him an easier introduction over 2m 5
 
Hopefully they give him a spin over hurdles at 2m just to blow everybodies mind and nerves
 
Robante said:
I don’t think he’ll race at Cheltenham until the festival, and it’s logical his first try at close to the trip would be in the Irish Gold Cup. Not sure if they’d go the Lexus first up or just give him an easier introduction over 2m 5
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Realistically there's not too many other options for him other than the Lexus Robante. There is the Kinloch Brae Chase over 2m4f in January which would be an ideal starting point, except it's ran at Thurles. Unless Willie decides to send him raiding across the Channel (far more unlikely than sending him to the Lexus you'd imagine), Yorkhill's inability to race right-handed restricts his race planning quite a lot.
 
Montjeu said:
Realistically there's not too many other options for him other than the Lexus Robante. There is the Kinloch Brae Chase over 2m4f in January which would be an ideal starting point, except it's ran at Thurles. Unless Willie decides to send him raiding across the Channel (far more unlikely than sending him to the Lexus you'd imagine), Yorkhill's inability to race right-handed restricts his race planning quite a lot.
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Valid point, can’t see them sending him anywhere right-handed, wouldn’t want to upset the loveable maniac. Any chance they start him off in the Paddy Power Cashcard Chase at Leopardstown? Was where Sizing John started off last year (was hammered by Douvan who seems to be on an alternative path this time)
 
Maybe, but I don't see the sense in dropping him down to 2 miles if the Gold Cup is the long term target. Plus, the 2 mile chasing division is the one division they don't need any more horses for, they have either Douvan, Min or Un De Sceaux for that.

If Yorkhill is as good as they think he is, and has "Gold Cup written all over him," then let him take his chance in the Lexus I say and see if he's up to the task.
 
Montjeu said:
Maybe, but I don't see the sense in dropping him down to 2 miles if the Gold Cup is the long term target. Plus, the 2 mile chasing division is the one division they don't need any more horses for, they have either Douvan, Min or Un De Sceaux for that.

If Yorkhill is as good as they think he is, and has "Gold Cup written all over him," then let him take his chance in the Lexus I say and see if he's up to the task.
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I wouldn’t be surprised whichever route they take. I don’t think it matters if he’s up to the task as I don’t think he has an alternative target this year. If Faugheen and Douvan stay fit they seem locked in for the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase, and no way will Mullins have Min, Un De Sceaux and Yorkhill in the Ryanair. Starting him off over 2m gives them greater flexibility maybe if any of the others get injured along the way. If by Feb they’re all in good shape that’s when he can have his prep at the trip in the Irish Gold Cup. I’m with you that I’d rather see him in the Lexus, would make it easier for us punters
 
Robante said:
I wouldn’t be surprised whichever route they take. I don’t think it matters if he’s up to the task as I don’t think he has an alternative target this year. If Faugheen and Douvan stay fit they seem locked in for the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase, and no way will Mullins have Min, Un De Sceaux and Yorkhill in the Ryanair. Starting him off over 2m gives them greater flexibility maybe if any of the others get injured along the way. If by Feb they’re all in good shape that’s when he can have his prep at the trip in the Irish Gold Cup. I’m with you that I’d rather see him in the Lexus, would make it easier for us punters
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Possibly, but I imagine they already have enough headaches trying to split the three I've mentioned without throwing Yorkhill into the mix!

The problem is, there is only one Grade 1 race over 2 miles in Ireland before Cheltenham, and with three big guns for that race already, it's very unlikely they'll run their Gold Cup horse there. I mean they already know Yorkhill has the speed for 2m4f, so if anything does happen to Douvan or Min they know they have an able deputy for the Ryanair.

I can see Douvan going for the Tingle Creek, the Clarence House, then maybe the Game Spirit if Altior isn't around. Un De Sceaux will probably take the route Douvan took last season, and then there are plenty of 2m4f races for Min to mop up if the other two stay sound.
 
To be honest, regardless of what happens to any of Mullins' other horses this season in terms of staying sound, I can't see Yorkhill going for any other race but the Gold Cup.
 
Montjeu said:
To be honest, regardless of what happens to any of Mullins' other horses this season in terms of staying sound, I can't see Yorkhill going for any other race but the Gold Cup.
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I agree and have taken some of the 8s. Wylie bought him to win that race, so I can't see him being persuaded to send him to the Ryanair regardless of what happens. Anything happens to Douvan and Min would likely slot in to the Champion Chase. I think Yorkhill would have the beating of Sizing John over 2m - 2m 5, and on breeding I would have said there was just as much chance that Yorkhill will get the trip as Sizing John. I'm conveniently upgrading the form of Yorkhill's point win over 3 miles, given that he got the front early and never seems to do too much when he gets there
 
Every chance an 18lbs increase won't be enough to stop Total Recall from winning the Hennessy, but I'll be happy to take him on at 5/1. The Mullins factor, coupled with his ease of victory in the Munster National, may see him overbet tomorrow. Despite comfortably beating the useful Alpha Des Obeaux, who went on to win a Grade 2 next time out, that was a woeful field he beat at Limerick, nothing like the quality in depth he'll face tomorrow. 18lbs may not be enough, but it may be enough all the same, how much more improvement can Mullins bring from this once truly average handicapper? Probably unwise to underestimate the man though.

American 7/1 and Coneygree 16/1 are the two for me. American really looked like a rising star last season, and with this being his long term target, he may well just have his own Gold Cup tomorrow. No doubt if he wins he will be aimed at the real thing, but that is certainly not Harry Fry's priority. Coneygree obviously the best horse in the race, and if he manages to defy top weight and win, it will be a case of "oh, well that was obvious."

Waiting on a price for American to do the Hennessy/Gold Cup double.
 
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