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Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

ryanh97 said:
I have a feeling about Rock the Kasbah winning one of the handicaps this year. Anyone able to hazard a guess which is most likely for him to enter? I see he's in the Brown Advisory betting
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I would have thought the 2m 4f novices on day one, whatever they call it....
 
ryanh97 said:
I have a feeling about Rock the Kasbah winning one of the handicaps this year. Anyone able to hazard a guess which is most likely for him to enter? I see he's in the Brown Advisory betting
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Might depend on tomorrow but at this stage I'd say the 3miler on day 1 would be favourite - here's johnsons blog today:

'My best ride of the day is Rock The Kasbah (9/2) in the handicap chase (3.35pm), who steps up to three miles for the first time.

We’ve always felt that he wants this distance. All he did was stay last year and it was the same when he was second at Ascot last time.,
 
Istabraq said:
I would have thought the 2m 4f novices on day one, whatever they call it....
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He's already rated 146 so he won't be getting in the Novices Handicap Chase. Judging by the fact he's running over 3m tomorrow he could go for the Ultimate on day one as Novices have a decent record in that or the slightly shorter Festival Plate over 2m 5f.

He won a grade 3 handicap Hurdle off 144 so if they get beat tomorrow and his mark remains unchanged or drops a smidgen then he could be competitive.
 
Good spot.
I thought he's only had 2 runs and therefore no rating as yet but I forgot about his debut at Chepstow.
Novices have a good record in that 3m on day one so if connections think he stays that's probably your answer....
 
What's everyone's thought on Diamond King for the Byrne Plate? Given a rating of 150, 1lb higher than his rating when winning last season's Coral Cup. He is a one that I think is a much better horse in decent ground.
 
Cheers guys, we'll see how tomorrow goes
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
What's everyone's thought on Diamond King for the Byrne Plate? Given a rating of 150, 1lb higher than his rating when winning last season's Coral Cup. He is a one that I think is a much better horse in decent ground.
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Definite chance and I can see them taking the handicap route with him. I think the stats might be against him off 150 and he would be close to top weight, however, the same owners have Village Vic so they could run him too to ensure that Diamond King is a few pounds off top weight and gets a decent pace in the race.
 
I think VV and DK are different owners Jackie. DK is owned by the same people who own Rock the Kasbah, Menorah, Captain Chris etc. Village Vic runs in different silks, so I assume they are different owners.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
The main problem here is that there is no consistency to how much Phil Smith increases the Irish Horses marks. Sometimes he barely changes them and other times it's close to a stone. I certainly would not want to risk a bet on the Kim Muir with a ceiling of 145 without the NR concession.
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Yes agree that at this stage youd want that protection.
 
Coming back to Mall Dini he has never run to an RPR above 145 in any of his races (the highest was when winning the pertemps) I know the Uk assessor likes to put them up but id be very surprised if he goes above 145, there is no evidence to back up a mark higher than that. We shall see, might depend on which side of the bed he gets out of!!!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think VV and DK are different owners Jackie. DK is owned by the same people who own Rock the Kasbah, Menorah, Captain Chris etc. Village Vic runs in different silks, so I assume they are different owners.
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I stand corrected. Hopefully he'll still run though :-)
 
billymag said:
Coming back to Mall Dini he has never run to an RPR above 145 in any of his races (the highest was when winning the pertemps) I know the Uk assessor likes to put them up but id be very surprised if he goes above 145, there is no evidence to back up a mark higher than that. We shall see, might depend on which side of the bed he gets out of!!!
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For me the evidence is that the Irish handicapper has given him 142 whilst blatantly running over the wrong distances and being given considerate rides. Unfortunately, as mentioned, it's not all plain to see when it comes to the reassessment by Phil Smith.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
For me the evidence is that the Irish handicapper has given him 142 whilst blatantly running over the wrong distances and being given considerate rides. Unfortunately, as mentioned, it's not all plain to see when it comes to the reassessment by Phil Smith.
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Mall Dini got clobbered 7lb last year so unless anyone can categorically state why it was that amount I would have to assume it could be similar. The only difference between his prep over fences is that he has only run in Novice company non-handicap races. Last year, despite being a novice, he ran in handicaps outside novice company in order to qualify. That might change things but who knows.
 
Hi, new member who has been browsing this site for about 2 years but for some reason, I never registered but thoroughly enjoy reading everyone's opinion

A couple of handicappers I've had an eye on (though they are somewhat obvious) are Thomas Crapper, who has been running well on the wrong ground, and usually runs well at the Festival but runs into another horse that is a little better handicapped than him.

The other 2 are both likely County Hurdle horses, one from each side of the Irish Sea. Ivanovich Gorbatov on spring ground from Ireland, Wait For Me from England. IG completely depends on the mark that Smith decides to muller him with. Wait For Me just seems to be a well-handicapped horse who is being aimed at a Spring Festival.
 
One to look out for today and with a view to the Pertemps Final. Presenting Percy probably needs to go up a few pounds plus the extra that is going to get added by the British handicapper to be guaranteed a run. David Mullins booked and looks sure to run well today for last year's Pertemps winning connections.
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
One to look out for today and with a view to the Pertemps Final. Presenting Percy probably needs to go up a few pounds plus the extra that is going to get added by the British handicapper to be guaranteed a run. David Mullins booked and looks sure to run well today for last year's Pertemps winning connections.
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He ran off 129 today and was involved in the finish so he should gain a couple maybe. Same connections had Mall Dini last year and he was on 132 in Ireland before getting 139 at Cheltenham. I'd say that Percy will make the cut now.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
He ran off 129 today and was involved in the finish so he should gain a couple maybe. Same connections had Mall Dini last year and he was on 132 in Ireland before getting 139 at Cheltenham. I'd say that Percy will make the cut now.
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Yes a really pleasing run. It looks solid form. I backed the winner as well as I thought he looked really well handicapped as well and Oscar Sam always runs well at Punchestown. He was keen early as well, so I think a strongly run race on better ground will suit him better than today.
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
Yes a really pleasing run. It looks solid form. I backed the winner as well as I thought he looked really well handicapped as well and Oscar Sam always runs well at Punchestown. He was keen early as well, so I think a strongly run race on better ground will suit him better than today.
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I'd agree with all you said as it was a slow race today too.
 
Mentioned it a few weeks back, Irish Saint is started to look well treated especially when they drop him in trip to 2m 5f. I'm not convinced this horse sees out 3m that well and again at the weekend he travelled like the likely winner before not getting home, albeit on heavy ground.
I think its best right handed but does not need to go right handed, its got a big handicap in it this season over fences or hurdles.
Ran six times over 19f to 21f and won three and came second in one. The other two where not placed in were both Grade 1 events.
 
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Cant help but think Elliot blew his chances of a county hurdle title exposing Micks Jazz yesterday. Very annoyed as ive had MJ down as my handicap snip for the festival for months now after his eyecatching 3rd behind campeador. Bugger.
 
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