Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[jono]

Not many Champion Bumper winners go on to win at the next years festival They all go off mighty short though!

Very true.

Relegate - Non Runner
Carefully Selected
Tornado Flyer

Fayonagh - Fatal Injury
Debuchet
Claimantakinforgan

Ballyandy - 3/1JF Supreme - 4th
Battleford
Bacardys

Moon Racer - Injured
Modus
Wait For Me

Silver Concorde - Non Runner
Shaneshill
Joshua Lane

Briar Hill - 2/1F Albert Bartlett - Fell
Regal Encore
Golantilla

Champagne Fever - 5/1 Supreme - WON
New Years Eve
Pique Sous

Add in the likes of Cue Card (7/4F) , Dunguib (4/5F) and Cousin Vinny (9/4F) before tham all being beaten favs in the Supreme.

Pretty poor bunch since Champagne Fever followed up his Bumper win.
Hard to pick too many wins let alone festival wins from the other placed horses.
The better horses long term have tended to be the ones who finish within the field, and become future strong staying types, as discussed several times on here in the past about the race suiting stayers.

Would certainly temper some enthusiasm. Particularly in Blue Sari and Thyme Hill who filled the places whose reputations have been nothing like EA. Certainly with Blue Sari it was pretty common knowledge that Mullins had a host of bumper horses he couldn't get out on track last season who were considered to have more potential at the time

 

[billymag]

Denis O'Regan rode him in work two weeks ago all is well, whether hes good enough to win a Supreme who knows, but the speed he showed youd imagine that would be the race for him.

 

[Quevega]

Jono is bang on with this.
Far too much focus goes on big race bumper winners coming into a hurdle campaign.
I’d be amazed if last years Cheltenham bumper lot in particular are up to much.
However, there’s been crazier things happen so you never know.

Loads of chat last year on carefully selected tornado flyer relegate etc,
Obvious and therefore overbet and bad value usually

 

[Morley Street]

All good points well made re past bumper winners, though doubt many of the recent crop cost £400K and were held in such high regard as EA. If you go far enough back, every now and then a special one emerges from the bumper then can go on to bigger and better things (Monsignor for example). Most recent bumper winners seem to have been campaigned over 2 miles the following season, when more often or not they turn out to be staging types. I think EA won last years renewal despite not being particularly suited by the race and I fully to see him being a force in this year’s novice devision. The Ballymore seems the obvious race and I can only see him being pointed elsewhere if things didn’t go entirely to plan.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Very true.

Relegate - Non Runner
Carefully Selected
Tornado Flyer

Fayonagh - Fatal Injury
Debuchet
Claimantakinforgan

Ballyandy - 3/1JF Supreme - 4th
Battleford
Bacardys

Moon Racer - Injured
Modus
Wait For Me

Silver Concorde - Non Runner
Shaneshill
Joshua Lane

Briar Hill - 2/1F Albert Bartlett - Fell
Regal Encore
Golantilla

Champagne Fever - 5/1 Supreme - WON
New Years Eve
Pique Sous

Add in the likes of Cue Card (7/4F) , Dunguib (4/5F) and Cousin Vinny (9/4F) before tham all being beaten favs in the Supreme.

Pretty poor bunch since Champagne Fever followed up his Bumper win.
Hard to pick too many wins let alone festival wins from the other placed horses.
The better horses long term have tended to be the ones who finish within the field, and become future strong staying types, as discussed several times on here in the past about the race suiting stayers.

Would certainly temper some enthusiasm. Particularly in Blue Sari and Thyme Hill who filled the places whose reputations have been nothing like EA. Certainly with Blue Sari it was pretty common knowledge that Mullins had a host of bumper horses he couldn't get out on track last season who were considered to have more potential at the time

All true though worth noting last seasons renewal was unique in that only 14 went to post in a heat that usually becomes a brutal slog for 24 which is also full of more hard luck stories than an hot 5f handicap and of those 14 half were 20/1 or bigger, and I’d be surprised if (at the time) more than a handful were rated 120+.
Time will confirm but it’s possible the winner (and runner up) are classier than most winners of the race and the race will have taken less out of them than it would in a ‘normal’ year.
Time will tell of course...

 

[charlie]

I am determined to get Chacun Pour Soi on side for the QMCC before decisions are made re Altior, so I have done a few acca's with things happening today:

Dark Lady (too big a price and accounted for hot fav Summer Romance at Ascot)
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 67/1. 1pt win.

Japan (v Paraguay, one of the laziest international teams you will see)
South Korea (v Georgia are rubbish )
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 25/1

 

[Geordieboy83]

Got a free bet to use with Ladbrokes. Do they not allow you to use these for Ante-post multies? Trying to place a treble but no option. When click on use free bet it says increase stake.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I am determined to get Chacun Pour Soi on side for the QMCC before decisions are made re Altior, so I have done a few acca's with things happening today:

Dark Lady (too big a price and accounted for hot fav Summer Romance at Ascot)
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 67/1. 1pt win.

Japan (v Paraguay, one of the laziest international teams you will see)
South Korea (v Georgia are rubbish )
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 25/1

Packers +3.5, Browns -5.5 and Chacun Pour Soi (champ chase)

Knock on wood if you're with me!

 

[charlie]

Packers +3.5, Browns -5.5 and Chacun Pour Soi (champ chase)

Knock on wood if you're with me!

Excuse my ignorance but is that an american football handicap market?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Malone Road back in training so youd imagine that will be their Supreme horse and EA the Ballymore

The rumours last season was that MR was their most exciting horse for this coming season as a novice hurdler. Looked an absolute weapon when we last saw him.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Excuse my ignorance but is that an american football handicap market?

Indeed it is

 

[Arkle]

I am determined to get Chacun Pour Soi on side for the QMCC before decisions are made re Altior, so I have done a few acca's with things happening today:

Dark Lady (too big a price and accounted for hot fav Summer Romance at Ascot)
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 67/1. 1pt win.

Japan (v Paraguay, one of the laziest international teams you will see)
South Korea (v Georgia are rubbish )
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 25/1

Followed you in with dark lady £300 return if Chacun wins now good shout

 

[charlie]

I am determined to get Chacun Pour Soi on side for the QMCC before decisions are made re Altior, so I have done a few acca's with things happening today:

Dark Lady (too big a price and accounted for hot fav Summer Romance at Ascot)
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 67/1. 1pt win.

Japan (v Paraguay, one of the laziest international teams you will see)
South Korea (v Georgia are rubbish )
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 25/1

(Gerogia ffs though)

 

[Marty973]

Gordon Elliott on Tiger Roll ‘He will go back to Cheltenham (March) for the Cross Country race and then we'll go for the Randox Health Grand National.’

 

[charlie]

Packers +3.5, Browns -5.5 and Chacun Pour Soi (champ chase)

Knock on wood if you're with me!

On. First leg in. Browns oblige and its CPS @ 30/1.

The last thing I want to do is flood the Cheltenham 2020 Ante post thread with a load of bets that aren't Cheltenham, so i'll create my own ante post thread as others have and post there from now on, but the subject of combining bets you can place now with Cheltenham ante post selections is really interesting and not something I have looked at seriously before, so worth discussing on here. Seems a useful way of securing bigger prices, especially with the cashout option (which is obviously key).

Take CPS for example. Currently 7/1. In a treble with over 1.5 goals in the Germany and Austria games tonight you get 10/1. Latvia have conceded 5, 3, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 in their last 7 games and G v N has resulted in 5, 4, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3 goals since 2000. I don't for one second profess to be a football expert but over 1.5 goals in each of those games looks a practical certainty (or at least it was until I typed this ). But it seems a decent way of getting shorter priced horses on side, at an earlier stage, at a bigger price, and available to cash out if need be.

I had a bit of a result with Dark Lady & CPS @ 67/1 yesterday so i'l be going again today. Bit more conservative this time. I want to get Paisley Park in at over 5/1. Belgium (1/250), Austria (1/16), Wales (1/4) & Paisley Park (7/2) pays out at just over 5/1.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Gordon Elliott on Tiger Roll ‘He will go back to Cheltenham (March) for the Cross Country race and then we'll go for the Randox Health Grand National.’

Exactly what we all knew, even though the owner did his best to put us all off...

 

[ryanh97]

Gordon Elliott on Tiger Roll ‘He will go back to Cheltenham (March) for the Cross Country race and then we'll go for the Randox Health Grand National.’

12/1 with Sky for both, a little skinny this far out for me.

Might be worth a couple of free bets though

 

[Native River]

12/1 with Sky for both, a little skinny this far out for me.

Might be worth a couple of free bets though

I'd agree, especially as you would imagine he will run the national off his current mark of 172 when weights are released, this must open the door to plenty of decent horses that otherwise would be a high weight but will be around the 11st mark this April

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I'd agree, especially as you would imagine he will run the national off his current mark of 172 when weights are released, this must open the door to plenty of decent horses that otherwise would be a high weight but will be around the 11st mark this April

It is mind bowing to think that a horse could win the Grand National off a rating of 172.

Tiger Roll’s two wins were from ratings of 150 and 159. It’s a massive stretch to 172 from there.

Tiger Roll was 8lb well in when he won last year off 159 (official rating 167 at the time, after romp at Cheltenham). It would be unbelievable to see the treble happen, but I hope he does.

 

[Quevega]

On. First leg in. Browns oblige and its CPS @ 30/1.

The last thing I want to do is flood the Cheltenham 2020 Ante post thread with a load of bets that aren't Cheltenham, so i'll create my own ante post thread as others have and post there from now on, but the subject of combining bets you can place now with Cheltenham ante post selections is really interesting and not something I have looked at seriously before, so worth discussing on here. Seems a useful way of securing bigger prices, especially with the cashout option (which is obviously key).

Take CPS for example. Currently 7/1. In a treble with over 1.5 goals in the Germany and Austria games tonight you get 10/1. Latvia have conceded 5, 3, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 in their last 7 games and G v N has resulted in 5, 4, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3 goals since 2000. I don't for one second profess to be a football expert but over 1.5 goals in each of those games looks a practical certainty (or at least it was until I typed this ). But it seems a decent way of getting shorter priced horses on side, at an earlier stage, at a bigger price, and available to cash out if need be.

I had a bit of a result with Dark Lady & CPS @ 67/1 yesterday so i'l be going again today. Bit more conservative this time. I want to get Paisley Park in at over 5/1. Belgium (1/250), Austria (1/16), Wales (1/4) & Paisley Park (7/2) pays out at just over 5/1.

I 'kind of' see the appeal of these type of bets charlie,

But is it not like finding a complicated and higher risk way of simply putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough for a normal bet ?.

Although the initial outlay may be smaller, you're still effectively staking the amount you win off the first bet (if it wins).

At the price of the second leg of the bet.
I.E with Paisley Park you're still betting at 7-2. Just with the returns of the first bet.

In some cases it effectively means you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something of poor value.

If the first bets of these doubles are such certainties it would make more sense to put more money on these, surely.

There's just something about these bets that seem not right to me.
Even though I occasionally do them myself (mainly not antepost though)'

Just thoughts, not trying to wind anyone up.