Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[archie]

That's been my initial thought as well. I'd be inclined to do a single on the first leg and then retain the original stake and put just the winnings on the second leg. That way you're going to be at least level and with a 'free' bet on the long term leg.

 

[Quevega]

Yep
I appreciate it does depend on stake sizes , banks, affordability, cash flows etc.
I can see in some circumstances why these bets may appeal but it’s probably not advisable I think.
From an idealistic view that is.

 

[charlie]

I 'kind of' see the appeal of these type of bets charlie,

But is it not like finding a complicated and higher risk way of simply putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough for a normal bet ?.

Although the initial outlay may be smaller, you're still effectively staking the amount you win off the first bet (if it wins).

At the price of the second leg of the bet.
I.E with Paisley Park you're still betting at 7-2. Just with the returns of the first bet.

In some cases it effectively means you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something of poor value.

If the first bets of these doubles are such certainties it would make more sense to put more money on these, surely.

There's just something about these bets that seem not right to me.
Even though I occasionally do them myself (mainly not antepost though)'

Just thoughts, not trying to wind anyone up.

Appreciate your feedback and thoughts. These type of bets are a completely new ball game to me so interesting to see what people think (there are quite a few of them popping up in the AP diary thread)

I think the value angle is extra complicated with these types of bets because you are not just assessing the current value of a horse, but the legs of the bet you are using to get a cumulatively bigger price. Those opinions will vary wildly, as will the sports and horses etc. To make it additionally complicated, peoples perception of what constitutes as value is also very different.

Re the point above, I wouldn't say it is generally putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough. For me it is far more weighted towards horses being generally a lot shorter in the ante post market than they were in previous years, so by using accumulated odds where you believe you have found decent value, you can increase the returns on a horse that the market currently isn't offering.

You are spot on though, this risk (providing the first legs win) is that you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something that turns out to be poor value, but that comes down to the individual and horse in question. We don't know that CPS is going to be a weapon, despite the strong vibes so that could easily be the case there. I would expect Paisley Park to go off shorter than 7/2 so if I can get 5/1 when I spot some value in other markets then why not, especially when B365 let you cash out!

 

[Saxon Warrior]

My doubles from current racing into antepost racing, are usually small stakes and seeking to pull together opportunities I think will win now, with those I think could win in the future.

I wouldn’t place the double if I thought that either part was poor value.

My own bets of this type would tend to be placed alongside the single win bet I would have on a current flat selection.

For example:
£30 Win Elysian Flame 8/1 (opening show for a race on a Saturday)

£5 Win Double Elysian Flame 8/1 with Chacun Pour Soi 7/1 (Champion Chase) = 71/1 Double.

If I fancy something for the weekend flat racing I try and place my bet as soon as the 48-hour decs are confirmed and the first prices go up. Often this gives me a bit of price value.

Rather than solely place the single win bet on a horse I really fancy, I think it makes sense to have the extra fiver combining my current weekend study and selection with a horse I fancy for the 2020 classics or Cheltenham.

Each to their own, for me this has helped build up a few positions on antepost markets.

Needless to say B365 for cashout antepost options is a given, unless they have extremely low odds.

 

[Morley Street]

My doubles from current racing into antepost racing, are usually small stakes and seeking to pull together opportunities I think will win now, with those I think could win in the future.

I wouldn’t place the double if I thought that either part was poor value.

My own bets of this type would tend to be placed alongside the single win bet I would have on a current flat selection.

For example:
£30 Win Elysian Flame 8/1 (opening show for a race on a Saturday)

£5 Win Double Elysian Flame 8/1 with Chacun Pour Soi 7/1 (Champion Chase) = 71/1 Double.

If I fancy something for the weekend flat racing I try and place my bet as soon as the 48-hour decs are confirmed and the first prices go up. Often this gives me a bit of price value.

Rather than solely place the single win bet on a horse I really fancy, I think it makes sense to have the extra fiver combining my current weekend study and selection with a horse I fancy for the 2020 classics or Cheltenham.

Each to their own, for me this has helped build up a few positions on antepost markets.

Needless to say B365 for cashout antepost options is a given, unless they have extremely low odds.

I often do the same HF and for the shorter price punts that Charlie describes above, I will often place a bet on the shorter price ‘certainty’ combination to win enough to cover the stake of the rolling on festival multiple. That way if the short prices win, you effectively get a ‘free’ festival bet. I think the ‘value’ argument of these type of bets has been overplayed in the past. It is a judgement call whether any price now can be perceived as value next March. I’m sure we would all only place an Ante-post now if we genuinely thought the price was going to be significantly shorter in March. For the Klassical Dreams and Paisley Parks we would be looking at an even money / odds on SP but whilst that would represent value to some it probably wouldn’t to all.

 

[billymag]

These doubles lads are ........ hmmm not really what this site should be about. If you land them then great but personally think this is a Cheltenham antepost forum. I come on here to listen to people who's opinion I respect and get bits of info and knowledge from them. If someone tells me that they've doubled a horse for the champ chase with an American football spread or hcp bet, really lads who cares!!!!!! Surely this is a forum about us trying to get chelt bets at a decent price by pooling our knowledge, not trying to brag about the mythical price we got by including random sports. just saying!!!!!!

 

[Quevega]

Appreciate your feedback and thoughts. These type of bets are a completely new ball game to me so interesting to see what people think (there are quite a few of them popping up in the AP diary thread)

I think the value angle is extra complicated with these types of bets because you are not just assessing the current value of a horse, but the legs of the bet you are using to get a cumulatively bigger price. Those opinions will vary wildly, as will the sports and horses etc. To make it additionally complicated, peoples perception of what constitutes as value is also very different.

Re the point above, I wouldn't say it is generally putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough. For me it is far more weighted towards horses being generally a lot shorter in the ante post market than they were in previous years, so by using accumulated odds where you believe you have found decent value, you can increase the returns on a horse that the market currently isn't offering.

You are spot on though, this risk (providing the first legs win) is that you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something that turns out to be poor value, but that comes down to the individual and horse in question. We don't know that CPS is going to be a weapon, despite the strong vibes so that could easily be the case there. I would expect Paisley Park to go off shorter than 7/2 so if I can get 5/1 when I spot some value in other markets then why not, especially when B365 let you cash out!

I understand that charlie.
I think B365 cash out is a definite positive for this type of bet also.
And I agree that whilst the horses in question are probably not great prices right now (P Park & CPS). They both have the potential if things drop right in their respective races/and they prep well/run to similar form as last season, to be a lot shorter come the day.
So the desire to have something on is understandable.

 

[charlie]

On. First leg in. Browns oblige and its CPS @ 30/1.

The last thing I want to do is flood the Cheltenham 2020 Ante post thread with a load of bets that aren't Cheltenham, so i'll create my own ante post thread as others have and post there from now on, but the subject of combining bets you can place now with Cheltenham ante post selections is really interesting and not something I have looked at seriously before, so worth discussing on here. Seems a useful way of securing bigger prices, especially with the cashout option (which is obviously key).

Take CPS for example. Currently 7/1. In a treble with over 1.5 goals in the Germany and Austria games tonight you get 10/1. Latvia have conceded 5, 3, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 in their last 7 games and G v N has resulted in 5, 4, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3 goals since 2000. I don't for one second profess to be a football expert but over 1.5 goals in each of those games looks a practical certainty (or at least it was until I typed this ). But it seems a decent way of getting shorter priced horses on side, at an earlier stage, at a bigger price, and available to cash out if need be.

I had a bit of a result with Dark Lady & CPS @ 67/1 yesterday so i'l be going again today. Bit more conservative this time. I want to get Paisley Park in at over 5/1. Belgium (1/250), Austria (1/16), Wales (1/4) & Paisley Park (7/2) pays out at just over 5/1.

That went well

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Well done Charlie on the above. A couple of thoughts from me on the whole cross sport multis thing. Personally i’ve been doing these on and off for a good few months at small stakes mainly for a bit of interest on the other sports. I personally think it is a bit disingenuous to suggest you (not aimed at anyone in particular as I’ve done this myself) are getting better value on the Cheltenham horse just because you have managed to land a some preceding selections on other sports. The additional value (as I’m sure all agree) is coming from the preceding legs and has 0 to do with the Cheltenham horse. Now the real question then is are we as punters getting value on the other sports. For me that is something that is not easy as I think it is much more difficult to get an edge on other sports, football accas for example with odds on shots are typically seen as a cash cow for bookies and you are likely to lose more than you win, in which case you are better off just backing the horse, unless you are doing it for a bit of fun/interest.

Personally I’m interested to see people put up selections in other sports (and flat racing) where they are adding them to a Festival selection or not (along with the reasoning), but it is best mentioned under the respective sports thread on the general horse racing page.

 

[charlie]

These doubles lads are ........ hmmm not really what this site should be about. If you land them then great but personally think this is a Cheltenham antepost forum. I come on here to listen to people who's opinion I respect and get bits of info and knowledge from them. If someone tells me that they've doubled a horse for the champ chase with an American football spread or hcp bet, really lads who cares!!!!!! Surely this is a forum about us trying to get chelt bets at a decent price by pooling our knowledge, not trying to brag about the mythical price we got by including random sports. just saying!!!!!!

I get your point, but it’s September. The forum is quiet, the season hasn’t started and there really isn’t much going on. If the end game is including a Cheltenham horse then I really don’t see the harm, nor do I see what’s remotely mythical. Probably best to have a place for the posts so it doesn’t frustrate others, I agree with that. The individual ante post diaries thread is best so that’s where il post from now on re things like this.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

On a separate note has anyone done any analysis on horses winning (or placing) at the Festival after running poorly on their previous visit? Two horses than I’m loathed to get too involved with although have already backed for small amounts are Batteiverdoyen (good case made Charlie) and Pic D’Orhy. If not I’m happy to look into this. We all know prior Festival form is worth it’s weight in gold but interested to know just how much of a detriment poor Festival form is.

 

[CUEMYCARD]

To be fair there’s on average 5 or 6 posts in this section at most each day.
Taking about a minute to read. Im more than happy to spend that minute to read about someone having a cross sport
punt including a Cheltenham Nag. Good luck to them ��

 

[billymag]

I get your point, but it’s September. The forum is quiet, the season hasn’t started and there really isn’t much going on. If the end game is including a Cheltenham horse then I really don’t see the harm, nor do I see what’s remotely mythical. Probably best to have a place for the posts so it doesn’t frustrate others, I agree with that. The individual ante post diaries thread is best so that’s where il post from now on re things like this.

Fair enough, and i do wish members the best of luck with all bets. my comments on here are always a little tongue in cheek as I hope people realise by now

 

[Quevega]

On a separate note has anyone done any analysis on horses winning (or placing) at the Festival after running poorly on their previous visit? Two horses than I’m loathed to get too involved with although have already backed for small amounts are Batteiverdoyen (good case made Charlie) and Pic D’Orhy. If not I’m happy to look into this. We all know prior Festival form is worth it’s weight in gold but interested to know just how much of a detriment poor Festival form is.

think Kev keeps promising stuff on beaten favourites/well fancied types at some point.
The two you mention doesn't take much analysis IMO.
Only one bad run at cheltenham is worth ignoring.
Elliotts chat after the race was probably just blather (not handling the track etc). I'd imagine he'd come over again with the horse if his form over fences is good enough this season. However, he may truly believe it doesn't suit and run it elsewhere. Doubt that though,

 

[charlie]

Fair enough, and i do wish members the best of luck with all bets. �� my comments on here are always a little tongue in cheek as I hope people realise by now

Yeh mate all good

 

[BigChaang]

Regarding Envoi Allen - What are the biggest prices people have taken for the Ballymore specifically?

He's only "any race" for me.


Not many Champion Bumper winners go on to win at the next years festival They all go off mighty short though!

I took 12-1 with Betfred a while ago . 10's now.

 

[Kevloaf]

think Kev keeps promising stuff on beaten favourites/well fancied types at some point.
The two you mention doesn't take much analysis IMO.
Only one bad run at cheltenham is worth ignoring.
Elliotts chat after the race was probably just blather (not handling the track etc). I'd imagine he'd come over again with the horse if his form over fences is good enough this season. However, he may truly believe it doesn't suit and run it elsewhere. Doubt that though,

Beaten favs it'll be on.
and some stuff on trifectas :encouragement:
Will be this month.
Don't fall off the edge of your seat.

 

[Vautour]

I took 12-1 with Betfred a while ago . 10's now.

Biggest price post Cheltenham Bumper win was 14s for the Ballymore

 

[Salubrious Chin]

https://www.racingtv.com/news/elliott-readying-big-guns-to-return

Gordon on Samcro:
"“It’s a great time of year, as all the winter horses are back in and we’ll try and get some of them going over the next six to eight weeks.

“Both Samcro and Apple’s Jade have had wind operations. They look great and the pair of them are in very good form – they are good and strong.

“I’d imagine that he (Samcro) will go chasing and he might start off somewhere like Down Royal in a beginners' chase. He looks great and I’ve been very happy with him.

“He has always looked like a chaser and all is good with him.”

 

[charlie]

https://www.racingtv.com/news/elliott-readying-big-guns-to-return

Gordon on Samcro:
"“It’s a great time of year, as all the winter horses are back in and we’ll try and get some of them going over the next six to eight weeks.

“Both Samcro and Apple’s Jade have had wind operations. They look great and the pair of them are in very good form – they are good and strong.

“I’d imagine that he (Samcro) will go chasing and he might start off somewhere like Down Royal in a beginners' chase. He looks great and I’ve been very happy with him.

“He has always looked like a chaser and all is good with him.”

Cheers SC, can't wait for it all to start now! Providing Samcro takes to chasing and makes it to the festival safe and sound, where do people think he will end up? JLT 12/1, RSA 25/1? (any race 8/1)