Native River
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Had my free bet come back the other day from Skybet from Spain being knocked out the world cup, decided to get it on Samcro, Laurina & Footpad any race 28/1
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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets
- Thread starter Kevloaf
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Middle_Of_March
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I’ve seen a few people put Footpad in these bets. Seems one to avoid for me as his four possible targets are:
1) Champion Chase
2) Ryanair
3) Gold Cup
4) Champion Hurdle
If he goes for the Champion Chase, which is surely the most likely target, he would be taking on the brilliant Altior. Quite frankly, Footpad wouldn’t finish within five lengths of Altior. You’d need Altior to miss the race for Footpad to win that.
If he goes Ryanair, he’s likely to be involved in one of the best Ryanair’s of the modern era. Even with 8 months to go, it looks like being an absolute corker of a race. I’d have him at about 7/1 at this stage for that if I was a bookie.
If he goes Gold Cup, which is apparently a real possibility, he’s taking on Might Bite on ground better than heavy (you’d expect) which makes MB a high class stayer. And he’d be taking on Presenting Percy who could really be anything. Plus his best asset of being a superb jumper at fast speeds would be gone in a staying test. I’d have him at double figures for the race at this stage.
If he goes back to hurdles in that very weak division (though it’s unlikely that he would), he’d lose his main strength of jumping fences. So again that’s very very unlikely.
For those reasons, i couldn’t have footpad with counterfeit for these any race bets. He just isn’t value imo.
Was thinking the same way.Altior will be a 9yo next year so will he have the fight over 2m against Footpad?
And Footpads winning time at Cheltenham was almost 5secs quicker than Alitors winning time.
I can't see any way at all that they go over further with Altior until after the Champion Chase. He sets the standard in the division and I hope Suede and Munir have a crack at him... and best of luck to them, but I'll be in the Altior camp firmly until I see any reason to suggest he's not the best two-miler in training.
In an ideal world I'd like him to run incredibly well in the CC and then step up at Aintree and see if he's a future Gold Cup horse... nothing... if he isn't then no point aiming towards a Ryanair.
I agree with most of that - but not the bit about the Ryanair?
If I knew Footpad would in the Ryanair I'd have a max bet at 7/1 (or the 8/1 you can get), even at this stage - I think he's be the standout quality horse in the race.
Balko Des Flos was a decent winner visiually but might go for Gold. Douvan, Min and Un De Sceaux are next in, Douvan potentially could run but Footpad would be shorter than the other two...
Fox Norton isn't worth worrying about, Monalee could well end up being "the one to beat" and I know you (and I) like him for this race, but he's hardly unbeatable.... then Waiting Paitently who almost certainly won't run.
Then its just horses who aren't good enough to lay a glove on Footpad?
jono will be pleased that someone else is in the Ryanair fan club though
Middle_Of_March
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I agree with most of that - but not the bit about the Ryanair?
If I knew Footpad would in the Ryanair I'd have a max bet at 7/1 (or the 8/1 you can get), even at this stage - I think he's be the standout quality horse in the race.
Balko Des Flos was a decent winner visiually but might go for Gold. Douvan, Min and Un De Sceaux are next in, Douvan potentially could run but Footpad would be shorter than the other two...
Fox Norton isn't worth worrying about, Monalee could well end up being "the one to beat" and I know you (and I) like him for this race, but he's hardly unbeatable.... then Waiting Paitently who almost certainly won't run.
Then its just horses who aren't good enough to lay a glove on Footpad?
jono will be pleased that someone else is in the Ryanair fan club though
But the point is you don’t know what race he would go. He’s four options atm.
Middle_Of_March
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They’d be fools to step up the chanpion Chaser in trip to win the poxy Ryanair.
I like the Ryanair but it’s nowhere near the Champion Chase in prestige.
Bar one race at Aintree they never did it with Sprinter Sacre so I can’t see why they need to look beyond 2m.
I think you only really look to step up a 2 miler if you think the horse might be a 3 miler and challenge for King Georges, Gold Cups etc...
I think you only really look to step up a 2 miler if you think the horse might be a 3 miler and challenge for King Georges, Gold Cups etc...
Native River
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I think initially he'll be geared towards the CC, but theres just something that makes me think he could well end up in the Ryanair or even pushing for the GC. I think he can certainly stay the distances and WM isn't too adverse to changing distances ran so preferred the any race cover at this time.
Yep, sensible points though I think they'll look to avoid a clash with Altior but they might surprise me.
Samcro/Laurina to win any race can be backed at 8/1 so that makes Footpad a shade over 2/1 in your treble, so I wonder if you saw the 9/4 Footpad to win any race market ?
Having the 8/1 double and 9/4 single pays a fraction more but is obviously a reduced risk option...
Native River
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To be honest I didn't look for Footpad in the any race market so wasn't aware of the odds in that, I think this far out with the free bet I probably just didn't think as deeply into it as I would come October etc, but main reason was more the 28/1 option with the minimal stake returns are higher and I thought sod it why not get a bit riskier with the free bet :highly_amused:
Yes I must admit I think Altior would be a huge concern if he was to go the CC! Don't have anything on him yet but I'm quite keen to get him in a multiple with others as a solid anchor option.
archie
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Altior's season consisted of:
- an operation for a condition that may well recur.
- an adequate return at Newbury.
- a foot problem.
- a decent CC performance that became devalued by Min's subsequent performances.
- a defeat of 155 rated San Benedeto (who later finished 11l third in a handicap off 158) after having a 'flat spot' in running.
If he comes back and has a clear run then he may get back to his best but a repeat of last season will not be enough to beat Footpad assuming that he also has a clear run to March.
7/4 Altior and 4/1 Footpad is just wrong at this stage. I wouldn't be doing 4/1 Footpad so 7/4 Altior, 8 months ahead of time, is nowhere near being of interest.
- an operation for a condition that may well recur.
- an adequate return at Newbury.
- a foot problem.
- a decent CC performance that became devalued by Min's subsequent performances.
- a defeat of 155 rated San Benedeto (who later finished 11l third in a handicap off 158) after having a 'flat spot' in running.
If he comes back and has a clear run then he may get back to his best but a repeat of last season will not be enough to beat Footpad assuming that he also has a clear run to March.
7/4 Altior and 4/1 Footpad is just wrong at this stage. I wouldn't be doing 4/1 Footpad so 7/4 Altior, 8 months ahead of time, is nowhere near being of interest.
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I think we're all guilty of this, I never feel a free bet is my money going down so give them far less consideration, and of course ante post 8 months out you can only apply what you know and have seen already, there may well be a few surprise options that show their hand.
Archie makes some valid points and like most I wouldn't be hitting Altior as a single with my hard earned, but it has the look of a weak division to me with little depth, maybe one or two of the Ryanair pretenders might prove to be top table over the minimum distance to show themselves as challengers.
Footpad's Arkle win was made all the easier by a suicidal duel up front but nonetheless he proved himself beyond doubt the leading 2m novice chaser in training but having been heavily tried over 2.5m and thought to have sufficient stamina for a stab at the Punchestown stayers hurdle last year he's far from certain to stay over 2m.
I don't see Saint Calvados, Petot Mouchoir or Brain Power being a credible threat to Altior's crown...
What I meant was you saying you thought it'd be a vintage Ryanair... I think Footpad would be a clear fav, meaning it wouldn't be a "top class" renrewal?
and to be fair there is no chance at all he reverts to hurdles in any way shape or form... but 3 options for sure.
First ante post single since April (Call Me Lord!) placed tonight.... 3 pts on Kalashnikov at 28/1 for the JLT.
Flagged by Faugheen_Machine in the July yankee thread....
http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?14788-July-Festival-Yankee/page4
Flagged by Faugheen_Machine in the July yankee thread....
http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?14788-July-Festival-Yankee/page4
Faugheen_Machine
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