Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[BigChaang]

Spam alert !!!!!!!!!!!.

 

[jono]

Bare with me on this...

We've got enough evidence now to suggest that Ricci is only really interested in winners at the festival (fair enough) - His only winner this year was Benie Des Dieux in the Mares Hurdle. Although I strongly believe Mullins/Walsh/Casey/Patrick make the decisions, BDD was the C&D festival winner - I can't see any logical reason that the Mares Hurdle won't be the target again. She's a best price 4/1 with WH

With that being a pretty confident target in my mind, will the Mullins' hype horse, Laurina take her on? I can't see it... the Mares Hurdle is the natural step after winning the Mares Novice race, but if they've already got the favourite, what do they do with Laurina? The owners certainly don't mind a challenge, and that does make the Champion Hurdle a big possibility... but at 14/1 best price with WH I'm going to take a chance on her going chasing. Mullins said he wishes there was a Mares Chase at the festival, and although that won't happen, it wouldn't take a huge leap of imagination to see Laurina going down the Novice Chase route next season... and with the Supreme winner staying over hurdles, and no real stand out candidates at 2 miles, she could very easily end up a short priced favourite in an Arkle.

7/2 on WH is the best price you can get for Buveur D'air for the Champion Hurdle, which rounds off the trixie. The second fav would likely be Melon, who he's already beaten and seems to always find one too good, and the case if obvious - I don't need to go on.

336.5/1 is enticing with WH (a very clear best price) - but with the boost it shoots up to 449/1
I almost can't resist.

I think I will have the patent - you all have 24 hours to talk me out of it.....

On Benie Des Dieux - I think she is a shoe in to be targeted at the Mares once again. Straight after her win in the Mares race at Cheltenham this year I actually backed Laurina at 8/1 for the race. Expecting her to hack up in the novices, the following quotes made me think BdD would be going elsewhere the following year:

(Mullins) We decided to come for this race because there's no mares' chase. What else could she have run in? The Ryanair maybe, but this was the only race worth sending her back over hurdles for.
After she'd won her first race for us, we did a couple of pieces of work and I texted Rich to say she was like 'Benie Des Douvan' - that was the vibe she was giving us. I tried to keep that under wraps, though!
When she won last time I told David (Mullins) to not leave Cheltenham behind, win if you can but don't give her a hard race, and that's what he did.
Ruby was brilliant on her but she only just got home. She really needs a trip and will go way back up in trip and back over fences now.
She really could be anything, I think a lot of her.

(Ruby Walsh) She's laden with stamina, she really ground it out. The one to beat was Apple's Jade, all I was doing was following Apple's Jade. After the bend I thought I was stuffed, but I would say without a doubt the ground has helped her"

But compare them to quotes after Punchestown:

(Paul Townend) She is very versatile, she jumps a fence so well, who knows (whether she’ll go back chasing) but wherever she goes, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.”

(Mullins) She’s as good as I thought she was. My aim all year was to win the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and hopefully come back here and she has done both things properly. She’s a really good mare.
At home, I thought after her first win she had the ability of Douvan, I wondered was she a female version of Douvan.
I want to see what there is over fences for her, are there races for her over fences that I want to go for? I imagine that’s her finished for the season

And to me there does seem a bit of a shift in mindset on her between those 2 races. I'm still of the view that Apple's Jade was quite a way behind her best form in the Spring (Midnight Tour and Augusta Kate wouldn't have got near her let alone beat her at her best) but BdD won at Punchestown with so much authority it's almost impossible to back Apples Jade to over turn the form when there are only 2 points between the pair. She'd be the only horse of any worry next season so connections would have to be weighing up why they don't just stick to the same plan again.

Ricci is keen to get her back over fences but we only have to look back at both Annie Power (was always meant to go chasing but didn't) and Vroum Vroum Mag (ran in Mares only chases) and the reluctance of connections and Ricci to test the Mares against the boys. There's been notable mentions of how BdD doesn't come out of her races too well and I just think at 8 years old, they won't want to risk her and we'll see the same scenerio where even if she takes in some more Mares chases through the winter, when push comes to shove they'll be cautious and find a race over hurdles for her, i.e the Mares Hurdle.

All the quotes about stamina, fences and douvan-esque ability would actually make you think the Gold Cup of all races would be the most suitable race for her but that would be a massive statement (I did check - 40/1). For me if they didn't feel like the Ryanair was worth running in this year, why would they go for it next season?

So for me the WH double with Buveur D'Air makes plenty of sense and a bet that i'm almost certainly going to add.

I can't quite make my mind up on Laurina still. Gun to my head right now i'd say she would go for the Arkle over the CH but couldn't say one or the other with any conviction right now. But he price for either of those 2 races is certainly appealing.

Anyone of the view that it will be Laurina going for the Mares, BdD would surely be going for the Ryanair so you could also potentially look at backing them in that combination in a 63/1 (Betfair) double

 

[BigChaang]

Relegate - Mares Novice - 7/1 - Hinges on Mr. Mullins not having a better one hidden away, if not she will get very short.

Apples Jade - Mares - 7/2 - Assuming Gordon/O'Leary will stick to the same logic of running her in the race she has the best chance in. Benie Des Dieux definitely goes chasing. Hopefully no Laurina.

Laurina - Arkle 14/1 - Looks a proper tool and definitely a chaser in the making, although the yard also have Melon.

Summerville Boy - Champion Hurdle - 25/1 - Not sure if connections have made future plans clear, but think he might stay hurdling.

Samcro - JLT - 4/1 - Trust in Paddy Power. The markets got his target right this year and I think they'll get it right again. Although not even Gordon would know for certain yet.

Santini - RSA - 16/1 - Todays race meant very little, in fact it probably enhanced my opinion of him. 16s looks big to me.

Just spotted this from Montjeu as i was reading back through this thread , appropriate as we're discussing a few of these.

 

[Kevloaf]

Not sure if you noticed Kev but ladbrokes have vision des flos at 33-1 for the arkle. Spelt wrong but im sure they will honor it.

I hadn't seen - still shorter than I'd like at this stage though. On my radar though

 

[Kevloaf]

Nice to have you back jono. Funnily enough seeing the comments backed up like that would actually make me more negative about BDD staying over hurdles.... I'd say its much more likely she DOES revert to fences during the season (which is something they STOPPED doing with VVM).... and if they DO go chasing, it does open up the Ryanair and even Gold Cup. Those quotes about Stamina are really, really strong.... however, I do fall back to my original judgement each time, and feel like they'll go for the race she's already won at the festival.

I've already pulled the trigger on the trixie and the double... but if I hadn't, I'd probably not be in any rush. The pack will inevitably be shuffled with an injury here or there.

 

[BigChaang]

Can anyone tell me , RE - Laurina in the arkle , B.D.D in the Ryanair , would they get a mares allowance for those races ??.

 

[Kevloaf]

Can anyone tell me , RE - Laurina in the arkle , B.D.D in the Ryanair , would they get a mares allowance for those races ??.

They would BC.

I can't think of many mares that have had a run in the Arkle... and not loads in the Ryanair, Ma Filuele springs to mind - I'm sure they'll have been more.

 

[BigChaang]

Thank's Kev , Certainly makes Laurina of Interest in the Arkle for me.

 

[archie]

I've no inside information but it seems to me that both Benie Des Dieux and Laurina may be ground dependent. Certainly, the fastest ground that either has run on is yielding/soft and I wouldn't be over-confident that either would be in chases where the word 'good' features in the going description.

 

[jono]

I was probably just more drawn towards the line of:

I want to see what there is over fences for her, are there races for her over fences that I want to go for?

More than anything after Punchestown. She's a proven 2m4 horse along with bags of stamina... It's not hard to pinpoint what chases are suitable for her if you look outside of Mares only races. For me there's reluctance and hesitation there to aim high with the horse and it'll more than likely be some mares only chases or at best had picked 'soft' chases over the winter. Otherwise this line...

I thought after her first win she had the ability of Douvan, I wondered was she a female version of Douvan.

Means the races available over fences throughout the season would be quite clear imo.

So Archie you could very well be right in relation to the ground being a key factor in their thinking and it's perhaps that more than anything else that will be the driving force for her (and Laurinas) plans?

It is of course often frutile going over a Mullins quote and deciding where a horse may go from it at the best of times let alone the previous season!! But that would be my reading of it. Despite yes, at face value you would assume they are leaning towards fences over hurdles. (interesting what route VVM may have gone down if both Faugheen and Annie Power had of been injury free at the start of the 16/17 season) If there was to have been a wild price I may actually have put a small bet on her for the Gold Cup but certainly not at 40/1.

 

[charlie]

I have started backing Tiger Roll @ 4/1 with the Skybet for the Cross Country. I keep thinking of Tiger Roll as a 10/11 year old but he's only 8, and what a magnificent horse. I have little doubt in my mind that GE will campaign TR in an almost identical way to last year. Couple of chases in Ireland, a spin round Cheltenham in Dec/Jan (or just schooled as he has done before) and then primed and ready to go for the Cross Country before having another tilt at the National. Hopefully the National hasn't left its mark and nothing emerges as a danger to him in the market.

Also adding Blow By Blow to win any race @ 16/1 with Hills and @ 25/1 for the National Hunt Chase.

On the exchange for GC:

Disko @ 70's
Road to Respect - 44's
Sizing John - 21's

There is another thread about horses that missed Cheltenham that could be under the radar and I think Disko is a very good example of that

 

[charlie]

I stuck two £5 free bets on Raya Time @ 33/1 for the supreme.

Recently won a National Hunt Flat Race at Killarney by 14l, backed from 33/1 overnight to 11/4. The horse has just been sold to Roger Brookhouse for £150,000 by Sam Curling. Interestingly, last year’s winner of this race, Summerville Boy, was backed from 50/1 overnight in to 7/2, and was bought by Roger from Curling for £130,000 9 days after that same race. Raya Time has been bred by Simon Munir.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

What’s the talking horse of Willies for the Supreme this year?

 

[charlie]

The vibes around Annamix last year were very strong. He attracted 40% of all bets for the Supreme between 1st September and October 12th and in that time went from 33/1 to 10/1 without having set foot on a racecourse in Ireland. The injury was unfortunate, but this happens every year with the Mullins/ Ricci horses. The general strength of these two as a pairing and their historical dominance of this rice with Champagne Fever, Douvan and Vautour has left the general punter falling over themselves to back these talking horse of Willies.

 

[Kevloaf]

I stuck two £5 free bets on Raya Time @ 33/1 for the supreme.

Recently won a National Hunt Flat Race at Killarney by 14l, backed from 33/1 overnight to 11/4. The horse has just been sold to Roger Brookhouse for £150,000 by Sam Curling. Interestingly, last year’s winner of this race, Summerville Boy, was backed from 50/1 overnight in to 7/2, and was bought by Roger from Curling for £130,000 9 days after that same race. Raya Time has been bred by Simon Munir.

Nice angle charlie.

I'll watch that race back.

 

[BigChaang]

Wasn't to be last season , But had a Fiver on Coney island in the Gold Cup @ 50-1 with will hills today.

 

[Native River]

Had a good weekend betting with 4 winners so given me a bit of antepost funds, so I’ve finally got on two any race I’ve been eyeing up for a while; Hollowgraphic 14/1 & Blow By Blow 16/1, both 2pts. Both look like good value for me at this stage and I’ve learnt from last year that the any race market can be a bit better for coverage!

 

[The Beast]

Dipped my toe into the ante post swamp today for the first time since March. Apart from the Gold Cup (which i thought was a great race) the ballymore hurdle is the race I thought was a quality race.
Samcro proved what a very good horse he is , showing gears turning in for home putting race to bed rather quickly. Its the 2nd and 3rd Black Op & Next Destination what really caught my eye and both fully justified that great run with good victories at both Aintree and Punchestown next time out ,and Samcro was cruising when falling against Melon so the general form of Ballymore has a real solid look about it with view to ante post betting for 2019 Cheltenham.
I hope I am right and all three go chasing and take to it well unlike the poor Finians Oscar. Here is my thought process -

A)Samcro goes chasing and that the Arkle will be the target , speed he shows in his races along with the stamina marks him down as ultra smart.Plenty of Gold Cup winner go this route and this lad god willing will join them.

B) Black Op goes JLT , I liked the way he closed Samcro down up that Cheltenham hill ,albeit Samcro was eased. Had Samcro not been in field he would have looked a very good winner.His Aintree win at end of hard season was just desserts and two and a half mile his trip. As long as Samcro dont turn up in JLT Black Op will take some beating imo.

C)Next Destination has RSA written all over him. Way he finished at Cheltenham convinced me he was in wrong race and would have romped home in the potato race. 3M definitely his trip and cant see connections sticking to hurdle with Penhill and Faugheen earmarked for World Hurdle.Only if he didn't make it as a chaser that might change.

three win bets and doubles and treble ,here is hoping

 

[PitLad]

I agree with everything you have said Beast.

I've gone in hard with Samcro in the Arkle, that race suits him perfectly, the way he travells will suit the race and connections will watch Footpad last year and just say - we'll do that.

Black Op for JLT is also covered ante post, a big scopey, rangey sort who needs a fence, should be smart.

Next Destination does look a 3m chaser and the RSA looks ideal, however I do think Santini is the one here but coverage is needed and ND is next on the list (with Delta Work 3rd).

GOOD LUCK

 

[BigChaang]

I think you may be right Pitlad ,The beast, about Black op & Next destination ,. just not sure about Samcro !!!???., got him in
a multiple for the R.s.a and in several multiples for the J.l.t , But not the Arkle .
Although G.E did say he could go back in trip , Early day's ......