Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Kevloaf]

apologies if this has been asked before but when do we expect bookies to go NRNB? Is it always a similar time of year?
........... and apologies if this is the wrong thread!!

I am sure we started documenting this - I'll try and find it but it might be tough.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

apologies if this has been asked before but when do we expect bookies to go NRNB? Is it always a similar time of year?
........... and apologies if this is the wrong thread!!

Early new year from memory.

 

[charlie]

Early new year from memory.

It's normally around my bday which is mid jan. Skybet normally come out the blocks quickly

 

[Quevega]

Couple of general questions..

I notice people on the forum often refer to using up free bets for their antepost betting plans - And many imply it is not the same as using real money !
It is the same as using money isn't it ?
Is this just psychological justification (of which us gamblers are experts at)

And secondly, many will cite the cash out options as a potential strategy and again justification for making some of the bets.
Could Bet365 remove this option at any time ?
Anybody know the rules on this ?

 

[Nwfb89]

Last year I'm sure sky bet were one of the 1st bookmakers to go nrmb around the 7th or 8th of Jan I think although I think the year before it was maybe a couple of weeks later than this

 

[Kevloaf]

Couple of general questions..

I notice people on the forum often refer to using up free bets for their antepost betting plans - And many imply it is not the same as using real money !
It is the same as using money isn't it ?
Is this just psychological justification (of which us gamblers are experts at)

And secondly, many will cite the cash out options as a potential strategy and again justification for making some of the bets.
Could Bet365 remove this option at any time ?
Anybody know the rules on this ?

Question 1 - My answer is post #5 http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?14912-Free-Bets - there are no FREE bets, absolutely. However, it also isn't the same as using real money - it absolutely depends how you acrue them. If you get £10 every time you place £50 of bets, that is not the same as getting "money back as a free bet" etc.

Question 2 - They could remove the option at any time - my theory on that is to make hay while the sun shines. It definitely isn't a stategy I use to make money consistantly (if at all really), but it does mean when you get things wrong or circumstances change, you can be ahead of the curve. If I come on here, learn a horse is out (often quicker than the bookies do) I would cash it out. I definitely did that last year....

 

[Quevega]

Question 1 - My answer is post #5 http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?14912-Free-Bets - there are no FREE bets, absolutely. However, it also isn't the same as using real money - it absolutely depends how you acrue them. If you get £10 every time you place £50 of bets, that is not the same as getting "money back as a free bet" etc.

Question 2 - They could remove the option at any time - my theory on that is to make hay while the sun shines. It definitely isn't a stategy I use to make money consistantly (if at all really), but it does mean when you get things wrong or circumstances change, you can be ahead of the curve. If I come on here, learn a horse is out (often quicker than the bookies do) I would cash it out. I definitely did that last year....

Yeah, I understand the free bet point you've made.

but on the cash out thing
Once Bet365 have granted a bet and it is sitting in your bets (with a cash out amount) - Is it within their rules that they can withdraw this option at any time ? Mid bet so to speak. ?

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Couple of general questions..

I notice people on the forum often refer to using up free bets for their antepost betting plans - And many imply it is not the same as using real money !
It is the same as using money isn't it ?
Is this just psychological justification (of which us gamblers are experts at)

And secondly, many will cite the cash out options as a potential strategy and again justification for making some of the bets.
Could Bet365 remove this option at any time ?
Anybody know the rules on this ?

More than happy to respond to the first one. As many know there are a few of us on here who for want of a better word 'farm' free bets (see the free bets thread). I literally take advantage of every free bet offer going by laying off the qualifying stake on betfair. I actually do it for both a friend and I so I can have access to all his accounts (some of mine have been restricted). For a real money investment of 100 pounds (loss you make laying bets off) I have so far made 1250 of free bets (between us) solely to be invested on the Festival. So not quite completely free, but not far off. I know others simply have winning accounts overall so see any free bets made as essentially free.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, I understand the free bet point you've made.

but on the cash out thing
Once Bet365 have granted a bet and it is sitting in your bets (with a cash out amount) - Is it within their rules that they can withdraw this option at any time ? Mid bet so to speak. ?

Oh yeh, for sure. They definitely don't have to offer the cashout and could stop it any time.

We've thought this since it started and nobody has been closed down yet... a matter of time no doubt.

In the long run though, 365 wil llikely make money offering the cashout. Cashout is much more weighted towards the bookies than the punter. Punting can be about information though, so I feel like you can be ahead of the curve?

It is a riskier way of back-to-lay on the exchanges, which is fairly popular I guess?

 

[Quevega]

More than happy to respond to the first one. As many know there are a few of us on here who for want of a better word 'farm' free bets (see the free bets thread). I literally take advantage of every free bet offer going by laying off the qualifying stake on betfair. I actually do it for both a friend and I so I can have access to all his accounts (some of mine have been restricted). For a real money investment of 100 pounds (loss you make laying bets off) I have so far made 1250 of free bets (between us) solely to be invested on the Festival. So not quite completely free, but not far off. I know others simply have winning accounts overall so see any free bets made as essentially free.

Cheers, understandable
a lot nearer free bets than your standard free bet doing that

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Cheers, understandable
a lot nearer free bets than your standard free bet doing that

One thing I have to acknowledge of course is that it does take a bit of time/effort. That said I feel like I'm getting pretty quick at it now as I know all the different offers and the quickest/easiest ways of making the qualifying requirements. The other thing is trying to keep the accounts and offers open by throwing in (and laying off) mug bets. No issues to report so far this last 6 months, but may be an issue after the Festival depending on how I do

 

[Scooby91]

Oh yeh, for sure. They definitely don't have to offer the cashout and could stop it any time.

We've thought this since it started and nobody has been closed down yet... a matter of time no doubt.

In the long run though, 365 wil llikely make money offering the cashout. Cashout is much more weighted towards the bookies than the punter. Punting can be about information though, so I feel like you can be ahead of the curve?

It is a riskier way of back-to-lay on the exchanges, which is fairly popular I guess?

My partner worked pretty high up in a bookmakers.

One big reason for cash out which may or may not suprise. Is the arcade/ casino games. Many people have an unfortunate mentality where they would cash a bet to get instant funds that they dont have an intention to withdraw. To take there chance on the casino games for an instant return. with the house edge it's very likely that the company would profit from this and therefore end up not having the liabilities of the bet/ bets. You could in theory do your whole antepost book and not even make it to March with nothing in return in the mean time.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

My partner worked pretty high up in a bookmakers.

One big reason for cash out which may or may not suprise. Is the arcade/ casino games. Many people have an unfortunate mentality where they would cash a bet to get instant funds that they dont have an intention to withdraw. To take there chance on the casino games for an instant return. with the house edge it's very likely that the company would profit from this and therefore end up not having the liabilities of the bet/ bets. You could in theory do your whole antepost book and not even make it to March with nothing in return in the mean time.

That's a really interesting point that I never considered. Just out of interest is anyone restricted by Bet365?

 

[Kevloaf]

My partner worked pretty high up in a bookmakers.

One big reason for cash out which may or may not suprise. Is the arcade/ casino games. Many people have an unfortunate mentality where they would cash a bet to get instant funds that they dont have an intention to withdraw. To take there chance on the casino games for an instant return. with the house edge it's very likely that the company would profit from this and therefore end up not having the liabilities of the bet/ bets. You could in theory do your whole antepost book and not even make it to March with nothing in return in the mean time.

That does make sense.

I've alwasy been incredibly disciplined with withdrawing. Any return I have at all, I withdraw. Even if I was going to put a bet on the next race, I'd withdraw and then deposit (which can look ridiculous at times) but it stops me making bets I wouldn't/shouldn't be making.
It is a system that has worked for me so far and I would recommend it! Money does go back in to your account within 24 hours now too and that'll only get quicker - Barclays/Sky are within 2 hours now (not that I am with them) but not long until they all follow suit surely?

 

[Quevega]

That's a really interesting point that I never considered. Just out of interest is anyone restricted by Bet365?

Re B365
Never bothered me at all and they are by far my most used account (stakes over £1k per week on average) About 90% of my turnover of bets per week.
PP, Sky, Betfair all restricted (via robots)
Ladbrokes Coral and William Hill haven't bothered me from memory but I place bets with them less than twice a week on average.

 

[Kevloaf]

Couple of general questions..

And secondly, many will cite the cash out options as a potential strategy and again justification for making some of the bets.
Could Bet365 remove this option at any time ?
Anybody know the rules on this ?

I can actually look in to this with some specifics as I record cash out differently to returns...

The 2018 festival, ante post I cashed out 22 bets. Of the 22...

9 bets cashed out for profit (41%)
7 bets cashed out for level (32%)
6 bets cashed out for a loss (27%)

Total stake - 41 pts
Total return - 64.4 pts
Net = +23.4 pts

My festival last year was net +351.5 pts

So I definitely didn't use this cashout strategy to make any real significant money... however, what that doesn't show is any bets I placed with a view to cashing out, that I didn't bother cashing out.... rendering this exercise pointless :very_drunk:

 

[Quevega]

I can actually look in to this with some specifics as I record cash out differently to returns...

The 2018 festival, ante post I cashed out 22 bets. Of the 22...

9 bets cashed out for profit (41%)
7 bets cashed out for level (32%)
6 bets cashed out for a loss (27%)

Total stake - 41 pts
Total return - 64.4 pts
Net = +23.4 pts

My festival last year was net +351.5 pts

So I definitely didn't use this cashout strategy to make any real significant money... however, what that doesn't show is any bets I placed with a view to cashing out, that I didn't bother cashing out.... rendering this exercise pointless :very_drunk:

discipline (not a trait common in most gamblers)

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Just out of interest is anyone restricted by Bet365?

Restricted to virtually zero RC.
I have friends who have never had a bet bigger than £50 in their lives who are severely restricted too.
I managed to get another account set up through a mate which lasted about 6 months, my guess is they track trends.

 

[thistlecracker]

My bet365 is heavily restricted too, no offers or bonuses either

 

[boopa]

I'm on my 5th account with them. They will let you win around £5k before restricting, usually within 6 months.

The only way to keep it open is to lose by laying off loads of mug bets.