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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
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RC regarding your NR stats - I think you’re in the correct ball park, and that’s an interesting mental exercise you’ve suggested when assessing the odds next year. That and don’t back antepost for the Supreme. This will be the second year I’d have been so much better off waiting until the day.
FYI my a/p non runners are also coming in at 20% at the moment.

But even those figures are probably flattered by the fact I’m still adding to the number of points bet so each time I do it will help to bring down that %.

I’d be interested to know how multiples stack up in this regard.
I reckon I’ll be lucky if 40% are still live come 13th March.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Obviously I'm basing this on a relatively small sample size but if anyone else has their own figures let me know. Kev, in particular with the number of horses you have backed would give us a good sample size :)
Click to expand...

I can do this properly for all races but probably won't until the season ends and I reflect properly and analyise everything. I imagien I'll have posted all my non runners last year but quickly,

2017 - 19 pts in Non runners in the Supreme lost. I backed 27.5 pts as NRNB that was returned (Neon WOlf, Charli Parcs(ha) and Finian's Oscar and Invitation only) took quite a lot of that.

I had 30 pts live at the start of the race because I had everything backed in the end, fortunately backing Labaik the night before.

You can do the maths on that or I'll do it later
 
Brital said:
RC regarding your NR stats - I think you’re in the correct ball park, and that’s an interesting mental exercise you’ve suggested when assessing the odds next year. That and don’t back antepost for the Supreme. This will be the second year I’d have been so much better off waiting until the day.
FYI my a/p non runners are also coming in at 20% at the moment.

But even those figures are probably flattered by the fact I’m still adding to the number of points bet so each time I do it will help to bring down that %.

I’d be interested to know how multiples stack up in this regard.
I reckon I’ll be lucky if 40% are still live come 13th March.
Click to expand...

Good to know you are also around the 20% mark. The other good thing about working out roughly what the % should be is that you can work out roughly whether you are lucky, unlucky or about right in terms of non-runners due to the horse not being fit. So with ITCF being out I felt pretty pissed today and felt it was just my luck that another one of mine fell by the way side. However, if 20% is about right then I'm actually still under that so I shouldn't complain too much. Also feel fortunate that the likes of Petit Mouchir and Our Duke look set to make the Festival now having had injuries earlier in the season.

I'm sure you are right on multiples, I've actually kepy my mutli stakes small this year for this reason, but still trying to work out an optimum strategy
 
With If The Cap Fits ruled out today...
I have staked 904 pts
NR's of 130 pts
=14.47% of my stake is lost at this stage
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Good to know you are also around the 20% mark. The other good thing about working out roughly what the % should be is that you can work out roughly whether you are lucky, unlucky or about right in terms of non-runners due to the horse not being fit. So with ITCF being out I felt pretty pissed today and felt it was just my luck that another one of mine fell by the way side. However, if 20% is about right then I'm actually still under that so I shouldn't complain too much. Also feel fortunate that the likes of Petit Mouchir and Our Duke look set to make the Festival now having had injuries earlier in the season.

I'm sure you are right on multiples, I've actually kepy my mutli stakes small this year for this reason, but still trying to work out an optimum strategy
Click to expand...

Almost exactly 20% for me. It was closer to 10% until around 10:30 this morning:sorrow:
 
Kevloaf said:
I can do this properly for all races but probably won't until the season ends and I reflect properly and analyise everything. I imagien I'll have posted all my non runners last year but quickly,

2017 - 19 pts in Non runners in the Supreme lost. I backed 27.5 pts as NRNB that was returned (Neon WOlf, Charli Parcs(ha) and Finian's Oscar and Invitation only) took quite a lot of that.

I had 30 pts live at the start of the race because I had everything backed in the end, fortunately backing Labaik the night before.

You can do the maths on that or I'll do it later
Click to expand...

Yeah realised I've jumped the gun on this and we save the proper analysis once the dust has settled after the Festival for the lessons learned thread. Could still be one or two high profile casulties yet. Only one quick comment now I think this particular analysis needs to be on total horses backed AP (in singles say) and the number that didn't make it due to injury. If you talk in terms of points I think that skews the figures and also if you talk all non-runners then it doesn't differentiate those that ran in a different race (if you didn't do any race), or just didn't end up being good enough. The latter 2 factors you have a judgement call in of course. Maybe start with those overall numbers then break them down by not fit, wrong race, not good enough.
 
Kevloaf said:
With If The Cap Fits ruled out today...
I have staked 904 pts
NR's of 130 pts
=14.47% of my stake is lost at this stage
Click to expand...

By the way on these overall numbers I'm:

Staked 174 points
NR's of 48 points
=24% lost at this stage

So you are doing much better than me - I'm actually still pleased with my position as long as I suffer no more non runners. The other thing that I've mentioned before is that I've totally funded this escapde on free bets, arbing and some winnings which certainly reduces my stress levels.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
By the way on these overall numbers I'm:

Staked 174 points
NR's of 48 points
=24% lost at this stage

So you are doing much better than me - I'm actually still pleased with my position as long as I suffer no more non runners. The other thing that I've mentioned before is that I've totally funded this escapde on free bets, arbing and some winnings which certainly reduces my stress levels.
Click to expand...

I've just checked and I didn't actually include non runners as a seperate entity in my analysis last year... I just put them as part of a total stake.

Will definitely look in to this.

Your % is a little higher than I'd like, however in the next few weeks you'll be adding horse much less likely to be ruled out, therefore lowering the %?

Also, when you said about including free bets, are they as part of your "pts"? I don't count free bets in mine.... I treat them as a bonus - as if I've had one for a "losing" bet, that is already recorded...just not at "CHELTENHAM"
 
Yeah I guess the % is a bit on the high side and I won't be making many more bets now to bring it down much.

So the 174 points invested is made up of 41 points of actual free bets, with the the vast majority of the remainder made up of me turning free bets into cash via the exchange. The reason I did that is because the best odds for Festival horses don't tend to be with the firms giving the free bets.

I haven't had any funds available to bet seriously this year plus this is the first time I have bet on the Festival from 9 months out so wanted to take the pressure off. It does mean if I get my money back I really will be happy as that is essentially all profit.
 
For peace of mind perhaps, I've been wanting to summarise how confident I am in each of the 18 non-handicap races. For the way I bet, I thought about any of the below being reasons to be confident in making a profit/having the winner for profit in each race.

1. Have the winner backed already?
2. Selection will be significantly shorter than the SP
3. Have a very strong and confident opinion on
4. Got the race as a book so able to 'green out'
5. Other

The races I feel I'm in 'excellent' positions if we kicked off tomorrow are:
Arkle (1,2 poss could do 4)
Champion Hurdle (1,2,3 could do 4 but wouldn't)
Mares Hurdle (1,2,3)
Ballymore (1,2)
RSA (1,2)
Champion Chase (1 and 2 thanks to a double with Enable in the Arc)
Cross Country (1,2,3)
Stayers Hurdle (1,2,4)
Mares Novice (1,2)
Triumph (1,2 and would consider 4)
Albert Bartlett (1 and 2)
11/18 I'm confident I'll make a profit on

Which means I need to focus on these races below... here are my basic thoughts on the races in reference to my position in them and what I think I need to do...(thinking out loud)

Superme - Not in a 'bad' spot however two the 2nd and 4th favs (Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy) are not backed at all and I am not confident they cannot win the Supreme. I could not 'go green' in this race if I counted my non runners either at the moment, which is something I did last year that worked. If I didn't cover them, would still have Getabird, MK, PB, Claim, Slate all e/w running for me so would expect a return.

4 miler - If it wasn't for Dounikos I'd have this in the list above as one I was very confident on. Unfortuantely I backed Dounikos NRNB for the RSA and JLT and now it looks like he's going to end up FAV in this race. Haven't decided whether to back him and "go green" or not, but will wait now for some jockey bookings...

Bumper - The only reason this race isn't in the list above is because it is the bumper and I've never had the winner. Only 2 pts invested so far, but Blackbow, Hollowgraphic, Didtheyleaveuouto(free bets) and Good Boy Bobby(free bets) are all running for me. I want to add Rhinestone but not been in much of a rush to do that.

JLT - Death Duty was quite a strong fancy and I backed accordingly. I have got Willoughby Court at 16s but that is probably my only real fancy that looks good in this race. I have Finian's Oscar who would be a magnificent result overall but hard to fancy, and AL Boum Photo would be great too, but looks like going elsewhere. I might end up with just Willoughby Court against the field for any significant returns .... was too slow with Invitation Only and I just don't really fancy anything or see any angles....

Ryanair - Tried not to get too involved in this race all season and I'd say this is one of my worst positions because that doesn't seem to have happened! I can only see UDS, FN, WP, Douvan, Min or Yorkhill winning the race and only them. Right now only WP, Yorkhill, Min make significant profit and none of those are definite runners! I could back DOuvan NRNB significantly but also an unlikely runner. I've read earlier there are slight doubts about FN having a set back and although its NRNB it still isn't ideal. Poor race so far for me... need some luck with runners.

Gold Cup - Definitely not in a BAD spot however... some horses with VERY good chances that I can't dismiss wouldn't be winners for me... notably Sizing John and Road To Respect. Our Duke would be my best result by miles, and Killultagh Vic and Might Bite will be good. I am happy, but definitely not in an "excellent" position. Not in any rish, as if a couple of the "right" horses have won earlier in the week I'd be able to green out this race with ease for a decent profit. Cannot rely on that though so will stay in this section.

Foxhunters - In a decent spot with prices about Foxrock and Burning Ambition, and took the 5/1 about Nicholls training the winner... That is plenty to have running for me for a profit (the more the merrier from Nicholls) but I won't be trying to go green, and won't be backing anything else unless I really fancy it... but wouldn't be 100% I've already backed the winner.
 
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Kevloaf said:
For peace of mind perhaps, I've been wanting to summarise how confident I am in each of the 18 non-handicap races. For the way I bet, I thought about any of the below being reasons to be confident in making a profit/having the winner for profit in each race.

1. Have the winner backed already?
2. Selection will be significantly shorter than the SP
3. Have a very strong and confident opinion on
4. Got the race as a book so able to 'green out'
5. Other

The races I feel I'm in 'excellent' positions if we kicked off tomorrow are:
Arkle (1,2 poss could do 4)
Champion Hurdle (1,2,3 could do 4 but wouldn't)
Mares Hurdle (1,2,3)
Ballymore (1,2)
RSA (1,2)
Champion Chase (1 and 2 thanks to a double with Enable in the Arc)
Cross Country (1,2,3)
Stayers Hurdle (1,2,4)
Mares Novice (1,2)
Triumph (1,2 and would consider 4)
Albert Bartlett (1 and 2)
11/18 I'm confident I'll make a profit on

Which means I need to focus on these races below... here are my basic thoughts on the races in reference to my position in them and what I think I need to do...(thinking out loud)

Superme - Not in a 'bad' spot however two the 2nd and 4th favs (Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy) are not backed at all and I am not confident they cannot win the Supreme. I could not 'go green' in this race if I counted my non runners either at the moment, which is something I did last year that worked. If I didn't cover them, would still have Getabird, MK, PB, Claim, Slate all e/w running for me so would expect a return.

4 miler - If it wasn't for Dounikos I'd have this in the list above as one I was very confident on. Unfortuantely I backed Dounikos NRNB for the RSA and JLT and now it looks like he's going to end up FAV in this race. Haven't decided whether to back him and "go green" or not, but will wait now for some jockey bookings...

Bumper - The only reason this race isn't in the list above is because it is the bumper and I've never had the winner. Only 2 pts invested so far, but Blackbow, Hollowgraphic, Didtheyleaveuouto(free bets) and Good Boy Bobby(free bets) are all running for me. I want to add Rhinestone but not been in much of a rush to do that.

JLT - Death Duty was quite a strong fancy and I backed accordingly. I have got Willoughby Court at 16s but that is probably my only real fancy that looks good in this race. I have Finian's Oscar who would be a magnificent result overall but hard to fancy, and AL Boum Photo would be great too, but looks like going elsewhere. I might end up with just Willoughby Court against the field for any significant returns .... was too slow with Invitation Only and I just don't really fancy anything or see any angles....

Ryanair - Tried not to get too involved in this race all season and I'd say this is one of my worst positions because that doesn't seem to have happened! I can only see UDS, FN, WP, Douvan, Min or Yorkhill winning the race and only them. Right now only WP, Yorkhill, Min make significant profit and none of those are definite runners! I could back DOuvan NRNB significantly but also an unlikely runner. I've read earlier there are slight doubts about FN having a set back and although its NRNB it still isn't ideal. Poor race so far for me... need some luck with runners.

Gold Cup - Definitely not in a BAD spot however... some horses with VERY good chances that I can't dismiss wouldn't be winners for me... notably Sizing John and Road To Respect. Our Duke would be my best result by miles, and Killultagh Vic and Might Bite will be good. I am happy, but definitely not in an "excellent" position. Not in any rish, as if a couple of the "right" horses have won earlier in the week I'd be able to green out this race with ease for a decent profit. Cannot rely on that though so will stay in this section.

Foxhunters - In a decent spot with prices about Foxrock and Burning Ambition, and took the 5/1 about Nicholls training the winner... That is plenty to have running for me for a profit (the more the merrier from Nicholls) but I won't be trying to go green, and won't be backing anything else unless I really fancy it... but wouldn't be 100% I've already backed the winner.
Click to expand...

Supreme - 0
Arkle - 1, 2, 3
NH Chase - 2
CH - 1, 2, 3, 4
Mares - 1, 2
Ballymore - 1, 2
RSA - 2
CC - 0
X-Country - 1, 2, 3
Bumper - 1
JLT - 2
Ryanair - 0
Stayers - 0
Mares Novice - 1, 2, 3, 4
Triumph - 1, 2, 3, 4
AB - 1, 2, 3
GC - 1
Foxhunters - 1, 2

The Supreme was a complete mess for me once Annamix was pulled, that said, it is looking a little better now, worst results for me now currently would be Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy or a lot of the outsiders, however I will use the 3 SkyBet accounts I have access to to cover both Kalashnikov & Summerville Boy using their 'money back' on first race offer, to ease any potential of them winning, this is more of a case of damage limitation now.

The Champion Chase is a race I had hardly any opinion on other than backing Min initially, and to be honest, given the price I got him at he'd only need to place for profit, that said, I can't now see Altior being beat, and I do think I will back him on the day where I am hoping he is part of some boost by a bookmaker or two.

The Ryanair is a race that has been messy for a long time now leading up to the festival and one I am still no clearer on, my only 2 bets were small ones on the exchanges of Yorkhill & Min, and I am still hopeful Yorky could end up here in which case I'd say I have a live player. UDS is one I am keen to get on side of as really, all known challengers seem to have faded away, with the exception of Waiting Patiently, who seems unlikely to go currently, and Fox Norton, who I read rumours about as a potential injury victim, not confirmed yet though.

The Stayers Hurdle is one I started backing UNWIMH & the late Nichols Canyon for in split stakes, I still do not think UNWIMH is done with yet despite a relatively low key season so far, but has it all to do based on this seasons form alone. I actually have Supasundae backed, but I do not feel I have the winner of the race confidently enough as I think it looks a very tough renewal, and 1 of a possible 7 or 8 in the betting currently could well win it IMO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Supreme - 0
Arkle - 1, 2, 3
NH Chase - 2
CH - 1, 2, 3, 4
Mares - 1, 2
Ballymore - 1, 2
RSA - 2
CC - 0
X-Country - 1, 2, 3
Bumper - 1
JLT - 2
Ryanair - 0
Stayers - 0
Mares Novice - 1, 2, 3, 4
Triumph - 1, 2, 3, 4
AB - 1, 2, 3
GC - 1
Foxhunters - 1, 2

The Supreme was a complete mess for me once Annamix was pulled, that said, it is looking a little better now, worst results for me now currently would be Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy or a lot of the outsiders, however I will use the 3 SkyBet accounts I have access to to cover both Kalashnikov & Summerville Boy using their 'money back' on first race offer, to ease any potential of them winning, this is more of a case of damage limitation now.

The Champion Chase is a race I had hardly any opinion on other than backing Min initially, and to be honest, given the price I got him at he'd only need to place for profit, that said, I can't now see Altior being beat, and I do think I will back him on the day where I am hoping he is part of some boost by a bookmaker or two.

The Ryanair is a race that has been messy for a long time now leading up to the festival and one I am still no clearer on, my only 2 bets were small ones on the exchanges of Yorkhill & Min, and I am still hopeful Yorky could end up here in which case I'd say I have a live player. UDS is one I am keen to get on side of as really, all known challengers seem to have faded away, with the exception of Waiting Patiently, who seems unlikely to go currently, and Fox Norton, who I read rumours about as a potential injury victim, not confirmed yet though.

The Stayers Hurdle is one I started backing UNWIMH & the late Nichols Canyon for in split stakes, I still do not think UNWIMH is done with yet despite a relatively low key season so far, but has it all to do based on this seasons form alone. I actually have Supasundae backed, but I do not feel I have the winner of the race confidently enough as I think it looks a very tough renewal, and 1 of a possible 7 or 8 in the betting currently could well win it IMO.
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3 and 2 on everything apart from the qmcc.
Which is just 3 as iv already cashed out min for a nice profit. Believe altior will win. But won't be backing him .

I'd be interested to see the horses backed in the races people have gone 1 on. Because 1 persons 1 very well may not be to another.
 
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Removed approx 260 points of Non runners and wrong race single bets today , But still have Plenty of Live ones , , So hoping as
Archie said last week , that the green ones take care of the red ones .
Not too badly affected by I.T.C F as only have in Multiples , so hoping the other selections
will cover the bet in that instance . Still have some very good looking Multiples , and obviously
Hoping / Praying that they stay intact.
 
My Handicap Picks

Rather Be cls bro 10/1
William Henry coral cup 10/1
Nube Negra Fred Winter 10/1
Theinval Grand Annual 10/1
A Hare Breath Counrty Hurdle 18/1
Long House Hall Brown Ad 20/1

25p E/w Lucky 63 pays £2.285.623.96

1.5 win singles and will hope for one winner min to pay for the bet..

The last bet I am planning for cheltenham as I have most of the graded races covered & this covers the handicaps..
 
Scooby91 said:
My personal handicap picks. Nrnb.

Fred winter
Style de garde 20/1
Look my way 18/1
Act of valour 40/1 25/1


Close brothers nov handicap
Tycoon Prince 20/1

Coral cup
Duc des genievres 14/1

Ultima
The storyteller 16/1

Brown advisory
The storyteller 14/1

Martin pipe
Early doors 20/1
Click to expand...

Added whisky sour 14/1 nrnb Martin pipe
Mitchouka 16/1 fred winter.
 
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As we're in a bit of limbo before the handicap weights come out....

Let's have an answer to each of these....

1. What is the WORST single bet you've placed so far for the 2018 festival
2. What is the horse you're most excited to see, regardless of having a bet
3. Which day are you most excited about?
4. What is your best multiple right now?
 
Kevloaf said:
As we're in a bit of limbo before the handicap weights come out....

Let's have an answer to each of these....

1. What is the WORST single bet you've placed so far for the 2018 festival
2. What is the horse you're most excited to see, regardless of having a bet
3. Which day are you most excited about?
4. What is your best multiple right now?
Click to expand...


1. Prob Slate house any race at 16s considering his target is now confirmed and available at a much bigger price.
2. Samcro
3. Tuesday because i'm there
4. Cause of causes 7s and samcro 7s double or cause of causes 9s and buv 4s double.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
1. Prob Slate house any race at 16s considering his target is now confirmed and available at a much bigger price.
2. Samcro
3. Tuesday because i'm there
4. Cause of causes 7s and samcro 7s double or cause of causes 9s and buv 4s double.
Click to expand...

1. :highly_amused: Unfortunately for me, I am in the same place and that ISN'T my worst bet :p Mine would have to be 10 pts on Finian's Oscar for the Arkle. I'm still sure I was right that the Tizzards WOULD have sent him there, but my God, in hindsight he had NO CHANCE of completing let alone winning an Arkle!!!!

2. Samcro - Closely followed by Altior though! The fact Altior can be mentioned in the same breath as Sprinter Sacre is something we shouldn't take for granted IMO

3. Wednesday..... if Samcro and Altior (both mentioned above) weren't enough... Cause of Causes tops it off!

4. Fortunate to feel I have plenty to choose from, I'll go for 1 that is rock solid that I highlighted on here.... BVD 4/1 and Apple's Jade 3/1 E/W double :devilish::highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
As we're in a bit of limbo before the handicap weights come out....

Let's have an answer to each of these....

1. What is the WORST single bet you've placed so far for the 2018 festival
2. What is the horse you're most excited to see, regardless of having a bet
3. Which day are you most excited about?
4. What is your best multiple right now?
Click to expand...

1. Finian's Oscar for the Arkle (3 x single bets actually :very_drunk:) (in the same boat as KSS with Slate House too)
2. Samcro without a doubt. Will be such a buzz on the Wednesday morning/lunchtime
3. Wednesday - Samcro followed by PP vs Monalee followed by Altior followed by Cause of Causes...wow
4. Buveur & CoC 49/1 double. Lots of multiples with Might Bite in the KG being leg 1 are close up
 
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