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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

Afternoon all,

Does anyone have an insight as to where Finians Oscar is going to be aimed at? I've invested in the Arkle and JLT around 80/20 respectively, so praying it's the Arkle....
 
jkite16 said:
Afternoon all,

Does anyone have an insight as to where Finians Oscar is going to be aimed at? I've invested in the Arkle and JLT around 80/20 respectively, so praying it's the Arkle....
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My initial thoughts would be the JLT, based on a few things. He was being aimed at the Neptune, and historically I can only see two horses since 2007 that palced in the Neptune (Tidal Bay (2nd in 2007, won 2008 Arkle) and Simonsig (won 2012 and Arkle win 2013) that ran in the Arkle. Looking through the last 10 years I can't see a horse that has posted a higher RPR at 2m after running in the Neptune. Plenty have improved for a step up in trip, even arguably Tidal Bay, and Simonsig we'll unfortunately never know, which links me to the second point which is that Finians Oscar has already won a P2P and a novice hurdle at longer trips than the Arkle is over... I absolutely do NOT think that he couldn't win the Arkle, and if he was running I would certainly be with him on all known hurdle form, I do however feel that the JLT may be the trip we see the best of him at this stage of his career. A lot of water to go under the bridge before then, and you never know what the owners may want (Arkle certainly more prestigious) so I wouldn't be downbeat on any Arkle bets, but I wouldn't be placing any more on at this stage. (I will add, that the point I've made about Neptune placed horses is a VERY small data set, and Finian's Oscar didn't actually make the field so I can't assume he is a placed horse but it was just some brief thoughts!
 
Hes going to be a beast over fences. I've him in numerous JLT bets and haven't even covered the arkle.
 
Of the top ten in the current Oddschecker list for the Arkle, and granted that one is dead and another is supposed to be out for the season, I'd say that only Petit Mouchoir is a likely runner. Finians Oscar, Ballyandy and Yanworth look more like JLT types to me. DDS stays over hurdles, I don't think that Brain Power has the class and I'm not hearing Melon or Cilaos Emery touted for the Arkle.
 
I think Finians Oscar is more likely to run in the Arkle than the JLT but looks like I'm in the minority.

Does Colin Tizzard favour one race over the other?
 
Do we think the trainers decide or Mr Potts? Looking at say Sizing Europe and then Sizing John (just two that come to mind without trawling trough all his horses) they way they seemed versatile in trip suggests FO could do anything if he wants it to? Hope that makes sense
 
I agree it certainly isn't set in stone even if the pedigree suggests a longer trip would suit. I assume Potts makes the decisions as he has done for all other high profile horses. I did sit up and take note than Fox Norton WON'T be aimed at the Gold Cup though, as that was(is?!) the one they wanted (tried to get Sizing Europe to stay)... now they've done that, maybe they'll be more 'flexible. The line certainly was FN is the CC horse unless something happens to SJ ...

What archie says is how I feel about the market, so maybe they'll see a gap and try and exploit? If he COULD win the Arkle, apart from PM (who I have backed at 16s) then does he really have anything to beat?

With Neon Wolf unfortunately no longer a factor, and Yanworth having "the best" novice hurdle form (or some of) who will not be going down in trip, does the Arkle become the easy option for FO?
 
Kevloaf said:
With Neon Wolf unfortunately no longer a factor, and Yanworth having "the best" novice hurdle form (or some of) who will not be going down in trip, does the Arkle become the easy option for FO?
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I agree with this. On first thought you would assume that with the Neptune being his believed hurdles target he would go over one of the longer trips. But when you look at the Arkle market, unless something comes out of nowhere, it could very well be the easy option.
 
Kevloaf said:
I got way too excited.... 17 points staked today! :triumphant: including the above

365 are STILL 9/1 CoC and 4/1 BvD so added Might Bite in with them (already bet the same with Our Duke)
Bacardys - Any Race - 12s 2pts e/w
Petit Mouchoir - Arkle - 16s 1 pt e/w
Red Jack (any race) and Death Duty (any race) both with BvD

I am so excited!
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One word for you Kev ......... LEGEND !!.
 
ryanh97 said:
I agree with this. On first thought you would assume that with the Neptune being his believed hurdles target he would go over one of the longer trips. But when you look at the Arkle market, unless something comes out of nowhere, it could very well be the easy option.
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It'll be interesting to see where they start him off. The biggest price I can find is 6/1 for him to win any race - which seems a tad on the short side at the moment.
 
Yeah I think 6/1 is a little skinny at the moment
 
Does anyone know when or if BET365 have an to win 'any race' market? I know they did last year but nothing as yet. WH and PP got market up nice and early
 
I think it was quite late last year. The NH season was in full swing before they put one up. Skybet do the same market if that is any use to you.
 
If anyone missed it at the time, Joe Tizzard was on the Racing Club Postcast at the end of April:

https://talksport.com/horse-racing/racing-club-exclusive-interview-joe-tizzard-170427237024

He mentioned Finians Oscar at 10:18 onwards (note it was a day before Finians Oscar ran at Punchestown)

Do you see him a Gold Cup horse, will he stay that far?

Yeah I would have thought definitely, he won a 3mile point to point..at Aintree over 2 and a half he outstayed them in the end...
he showed signs of inexperience at Aintree, this horse will never have run this fast on this ground in his life...Robbie came back in and said he was green, he was babyish, it was just raw ability that he was able to do what he did.
I'm convinced already he's a Gold Cup horse for the future.
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To me that would suggest it's JLT or even RSA before the Arkle (and that ground could be a factor perhaps from that and they may leave it open until nearer the time?)

I'd also take note of what Joe Tizzard says. He may be assistant trainer but I don't see it as coincidence that the upturn in the Tizzard yard has also come about soon after Joe retired and although a lot has been made about the changes at the yard in terms of location and facililtes, I imagine he has been a big reason for the rise over the last few years.

Now of course Potts may have the final say outside of what either of the Tizzards think BUT I see no reason why if the Gold Cup is THE aim for the horse why the Arkle would be the better race over the JLT - it wouldn't necessarily be a hinderance as we have seen in the past but there's no benefit over the JLT (unless Potts decides that he should replicate Sizing Johns path?). Personally the only reason I see them going Arkle is if they see it as an easier race to win come March but the yard don't seem to be one for the easy option from what we have seen so far. Like most others have said though if he was to line up in the Arkle he'd be the obvious winner and worthy favourite right now for sure.

I just had a quick look at what the Tizzards did with Cue Card....

Cue Card
- Ran in the Supreme (16F)
- Then stepped up to 20F in the Mersey Novice Hurdle (same as FO)
- Novice Chasing campaign ran 4 times over 19.5 / 20.5 / 20 and 18.5F BUT then dropped back to the Arkle when the JLT was a viable option, especially considering they had to take on Sprinter Sacre in a RED HOT Arkle.

Now 2012 I had little interest in the sport so I do not know the ins and outs and if there was valid reasons behind the choice but if you took Cue Cards novice chase season that year, all the prep runs would have suggested he'd be going over the longer trip BUT they decided to go Arkle - that may mean that even if Finians Oscar is running over similar trips this year he may drop back too hence we may be unsure for a little while yet...
 
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That was a great Arkle and my first visit to Prestbury Park.

From memory there was plenty of debate about which race Cue Card would run in but I think it was CT who favoured the Arkle - I remember him saying 'you should never be scared of one horse', in this case though, they should have been!

Cue Card performed with credit though and was far from disgraced.
 
Did Sir Des Champs win the JLT in 2012?
 
Cheers guys - nice to get a bit more context and info on that. It really was a ridiculous lineup with Sprinter, Cue Card, Al Ferof and Menorah. 'Before my time' as such but I would have loved to have been there to see it, a race that sticks in your mind I imagine Faugheen?
 
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