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Neptune Novices Hurdle 2017

A nice performance by Finians Oscar but bookies going 4/1 for the Neptune is laughable.
 
I'd appreciate a little insight into the game here guys as I'm fairly new to taking a keen interest in racing.
I watched Finians Oscar win today. He looked a good horse and he won nicely.

However that was over two miles and to my untrained eye he looked a little ragged over the last and he appeared to be tiring at the line.
So as the Neptune is over half a mile further and Cheltenham is an exacting course, I was a little surprised to see his price shorten so dramatically.

What am I failing to consider? Better ground in March is all I can come up with.
 
I thought Finian's Oscar was reasonably impressive, but I have reservations on the form. Capitaine just doesn't convince me, Charlemar I'm in two minds on and looked more of a stayer on today's evidence. Chalonnial ran well enough but I doubt it's a graded horse.
Just so mch hype around horses with festival reputations and bookies are giving nothing away, some of the prices a ridiculous for Cheltenham such as Death Duty who turns out tomorrow.
 
Brital said:
I'd appreciate a little insight into the game here guys as I'm fairly new to taking a keen interest in racing.
I watched Finians Oscar win today. He looked a good horse and he won nicely.

However that was over two miles and to my untrained eye he looked a little ragged over the last and he appeared to be tiring at the line.
So as the Neptune is over half a mile further and Cheltenham is an exacting course, I was a little surprised to see his price shorten so dramatically.

What am I failing to consider? Better ground in March is all I can come up with.
Click to expand...

trainer quotes ? also won a 3 mile point to point I think


Colin Tizzard celebrated his 61st birthday in style after Finian's Oscar provided him with another big-race Saturday winner in the 32Red Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown.

The Ann and Alan Potts-owned five-year-old was backed into 11/10 favouritism on course and he didn't disappoint backers with a smooth display that had the bookmakers running for cover with the Cheltenham Festival in mind.

Sky Bet went 7/1 about the winner for the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham initially, but soon cut that to 5s, with Paddy Power and William Hill going 5/1 immediately. Coral went as short as 4s for the race.

This was just his second start over hurdles but he travelled into the contest behind the leader Chalonnial beautifully, before he put the race to bed two out as he extended away from the Grade One field.

Kept up to his work by Tom O'Brien up the hill, Finian's Oscar stretched five lengths clear of Capitaine, with Chalonnial third and Global Stage a creditable fourth on his hurdling debut.

O'Brien told ITV Racing: "He's very special. He was a little bit inexperienced but kept it together and ran well.

"He was a bit lonely at the last, but he got it done well."

O'Brien went on: "I've not ridden many horses like him. "It was like riding a Grade One horse in a handicap, he does everything so easy.

"I was hoping Sam (Twiston-Davies on Capitaine) might come with me for longer, but he got the job done.

"The pressure didn't affect me, there were six runners and it was a straightforward race.

"I've only won one Grade One (Souffleur, Challow Hurdle, 2007), it took me a long time to get on another, so the feeling now is relief."

Tizzard said: "He's a beautiful young horse, but we didn't know he was going to do that.

"He's only won a point to point and a novices' hurdle at Hereford, but the way he did it at Hereford, why waste him in a little race when you can have a go at this?

"He justified it (the decision to run) and handled the ground well.

"He looked in control most of the way and he soon went five lengths clear.

"He stuttered into the last and I thought 'is he going to stop', but as soon as Tom got busy, he went on again.

"I would have been disappointed if he didn't win at Hereford but coming here today was completely different as it was a proper race back over two miles.

"He probably will run again and then go for one of the races at Cheltenham.

"He could go any trip, I think the easiest option is to go two and a half, but he's got the speed for two and he stays."
 
Another quote from Tizzard -

"He's a beautiful young horse," said the trainer. "We didn't know he'd win like that. He'd only won a point-to-point, but it was the way he won his novice hurdle at Hereford. We thought, why waste another run in a small race?
"He soon went five lengths clear and when he stuttered into the last, you slightly wondered if he'd get caught, but he kept on. Tom Malone (the bloodstock agent) put him up to us and there were some good people after him. It's made the game a lot easier for us buying lovely young horses ready to go on. We used have to buy stores and wait three years for them."

He added: "Cheltenham's where we want to be. Do we need to run again? Probably. I don't know if he's a two or two-and-a-half miler, but someone will probably tell me."
His Hereford win was over two and three-quarters, but yesterday's was over two and, if Tizzard is looking for advice from the bookmakers then, looking ahead to the Festival, they have Finian's Oscar at 6/1 for the Neptune, but double that for the shorter Supreme.
 
It is worth remembering that historically the speedier horses tend to go down the Neptune route
This is because they go breakneck pace in the supreme thus making it more emphasis on stamina than the Neptune where they go a sensible gallop
Although finians Oscar was impressive the bookmakers have surely overreacted,this race along with the supreme look wide open this year and I will be playing a waiting game
 
Welcome Liam.

Moon Racer has done nothing wrong but still waiting for something to shine in Novice hurdles imo. Nice race at Naas today - I like Navan and Naas form in Irish novices heading to Cheltenham.
 
I'm tempted to back Bacardys for the Neptune, it's just the usual conundrum of working out if this will be its target. I think it's a real likeable trier and looks like 2m 5f would be its optimum, but I could also see the strong pace of Supreme meaning it could run well in that too.
Mullins stable just so powerful now, it's pretty much ruined ante post betting for Cheltenham
 
Penhill seems to be going under the radar from the Mullins camp, stepped up to 3m over smash he absolutely destroyed a half decent going past them on the bridle before forging clear on the run in.. I have a nice bet at 33/1 for the AB but it seems he isn't one of the Mullins talking horses
 
cwright23 said:
I have a nice bet at 33/1 for the AB but it seems he isn't one of the Mullins talking horses
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I think it's just because he isn't a Wylie or Ricci horse. If he was he'd be shorter in the betting. He's one of the horses I've been chipping away at.
 
Only just seen the Tolworth yesterday and I think that he'd need to improve his jumping to win a Neptune? Awkward over a few, strange at the last. I can't quite weigh up what I've seen. He didn't run through the line and hasn't really beaten a great deal? Based on that run alone I wouldn't say he wants a step up in trip.

Looking at the comments regarding Death Duty, before he runs today, an impressive performance looking pacy might sway them to go for this race? They'll have plenty of 3 mile options because of the types of horse they by.... Blood Crazed Tiger and Bel AMi blah blah from today could easily get beaten and turn up with a chance in the AB? I am tempted to have a bit on at 8/1
 
I must say I was having this very debate with myself this morning, my whole AP book is filled with death duty in the AB, but he hasn't tried 3miles over hurdles yet, he appears to have plenty of pace, why is he 11/4 for the AB and 8/1 for the Neptune, especially when disposing of invitation only last time out, I am Concerned myself and hope Augusta Kate runs death duty close enough to day to at least give connections a firm nudge towards the AB
 
Looks like the market had it right for us gjt. Elliott has all but confirmed the Albert Bartlet is the target for Death Duty.

Think Augusta Kate would be a player in the Neptune? The 2m mares race might be too short? Hard to say where she'd have finished today but on a guess through DD she is ahead of IO?
 
Thanks Mayo

After watching the race at naas today I am sure it will be the AB for death duty
Elliott has said he would only consider the Neptune if it turned up very soft at Cheltenham
Which is unlikely
He seems to be one of those horses who just plods on rather than having a burst of pace
Similar at this stage to Don Poli I would say
 
Has there any comments made about Invitation Only's well-being? He's noticeably weak on the exchanges.
 
Not sure if he just doesn't feature but wasn't in Wylies 4 to follow on 'The Opening Show' yesterday..
 
That might explain it Rowebot. Was Ballyward mentioned?
 
Thanks. Nichols Canyon a surprise inclusion for me.
 
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