Hi Guys,
Been reading this forum quite a lot lately, so finally decided to join.
Hope you are all well. Just thought I'd put my opinions across and hope not to offend anyone with them along the way. It seems a very informative thread this one and Cheltenham is the one festival throughout the year and of all racing that I look forward to and put most of my time and effort in to. The past 3 festivals have been brilliantly profitable for myself, ad I am sure they have been for the majority of you guys on here too, so fingers crossed that continues on to next year
I want to get your opinions, if willing to share, on the current situation of the Gold Cup market. I myself am all over Djakadam @ 12/1, for value I am really struggling to see any alternative and what I mean by that is we currently have a novice, albeit a extremely talented one at the head of the market, but as short as 5/2 with a couple is ridiculous, no? Then we have the brilliant Cue Card, I am a huge fan of his, but he will be 11 next year, they don't have very good records in the race, how many see this as a big problem? He also only has one run in this race to date and fell, so yet to complete. With regards to Cue Card & Thistlecard you also get the added dilemma of if they will both run or not? Don Cossack was a gallant winner this year, but looks as though he will be heading to the race without a prep run, surely a big negative, unsure how many horses have managed to win this race without a run in the same season prior to it? Coneygree will be 10, again, another age stat, but at least he won the race as a novice which is a positive, and will likely come on massively for his seasonal debut this year, so not without hope. Valseur Lido probably is fair value, but based on their sole meet in the John Durkan (over a shorter trip, granted) in 2015 he probably has something to find with Djakadam. That leaves us with a few at bigger prices that are either novices or have many other questions to answer before they can even be mentioned in the same breath as the previously mentioned bunch.
So why Djakadam? Well, he has experience of the race, finishing 2nd twice, aged 6 and 7 which is no mean feat in itself. He will be 8 come the time of the race, a age that seems to be perfect for winning this race in recent years, since the turn of the century six 8 year olds have won the race, five 9 year olds, four 7 year olds and one 6 year old. I don't know if it was just me, but I also thought he looked bigger framed, more chase like if you like in this years John Durkan, which come Cheltenham time, when Mullins has his charges ready, he should be more powerful than in previous seasons, this however is only an opinion of mine and it may just be that the horses he ran against were just smaller in frame than him.
So that's my thoughts on the Gold Cup so far. I have plenty of multiples of currently, and less singles, I am pretty much in the same camp as most of you on here with regards to other bets, my list currently consists of the following;
Supreme - Crack Mome 25/1 (Very small stakes though)
Arkle - Min 6/1 (Main bet) & Altior 5/2
National Hunt Chase - Emerging Force 20/1
QMCC - Douvan (In most and varying prices multiple bets)
X-Country - Josies Orders (Again, in a lot of multiples around 5/2)
Bumper - Getabird 8/1
JLT - American Tom 12/1
Pertemps - Golden Doyen 20/1 & For Good Measure 20/1
Ryanair - VVM 10/1 (not confident she will go here now) & Un De Sceaux 10/1
Mares Novices Hurdle - Augusta Kate 8/1
Triumph - Bapaume 16/1 & Defi Du Seuil 14/1
Foxhunters Chase - It Came To Pass 16/1
Gold Cup - Djakadam 12/1 (as explained above)
Sorry to ramble on, any thoughts or opinions are greatly received
