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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

Oh and don't worry if Jamie Codd doesn't take up the ride for COI, i tweeted this in September:

Can't wait to see Champers On Ice jump fences. A really exciting prospect this season. Good luck guys ����

[me =>] Book up @CoddJJ or @DerekOConnor82 for the 4 miler and he won't be beaten ����
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Which Derek O Connor himself liked. So there you have it - the winning jockey in the race for the last 2 years is ready and waiting to pick up the ride if needed, what more do you need...ha! :highly_amused:
 
Haha fantastic. Yes that has all come screaming back to me before I even go back and read it...

The trainer record would put me off, if it wasn't Nicholls... the more prestigous and the more prize money will turn his head soon enough... still not going to have a bet though on it. Just nice to KNOW a target and got ahead of myself.
 
You'd imagine he'll get a winner in the race at some point in time. Like you raised a while back he excels at staying chasers so you'd have thought the race would have become an ideal target for him. He's had some good chances in the race though so it's not like he's never gone there with a good chance.

On another note - has anyone heard any news on Blow by Blow? A few weeks back I heard a rumour he may not run this season or at least until the latter part of the season with a chipped bone. Has this been confirmed?
 
I heard the same rumour but not heard anything official on Blow by Blow which is a big shame for the horse, connections and my pocket
 
So I know the idea of sticking one or more Willie Mullins horses in an multiple is the stuff of madness but last year I did 2 multiples with this same strategy and I got quite close to them coming in which has made me even keener to give it another go this year, especially as last year resulted in another 7 winners for the trainer which strengthens in my eyes this strategy right now.

Ground breaking it is not by any means - it's purely trying to pick out the best and most likely races he'll have a winner in, and then pick the horses most likely to run in those races.

So the last 4 years has resulted in the following amount of winners for WM:

2016 - 7 Winners
2015 - 8 Winners
2014 - 4 Winners
2013 - 5 Winners

I'll likely do the same this year but I took the approach that 4 winners seemed like the best approach and a reasonable target. Mullins has had some good handicap winners with the likes of Wicklow Brave, Killultagh Vic etc but the vast majority of his wins have been in non handicap races and often in the same races.

2016 - 7 Winners - All wins in non handicaps
2015 - 8 Winners - 6 wins in non handicaps
2014 - 4 Winners - 3 wins in non handicaps
2013 - 5 Winners - 3 wins in non handicaps

So if we look at the races that he has most of his winners in over this 4 year period (no suprise day 1 is most profitable and note i've only counted his first choice in the races):

Supreme - 2111 (75% win / 100% place)

2016 - Min (2nd)
2015 - Douvan (1st)
2014 - Vautour (1st)
2013 - Champagne Fever (1st)

Arkle - 112P (50% win / 75% place)

2016 - Douvan (1st)
2015 - Un de Sceaux (1st)
2014 - Champagne Fever (2nd)*
2013 - Arvika Lig.. (P)

*How CF didn't win in 2014?!!? It should be another 1!)

Champion Hurdle - 1141 (75% win / 75% place)

2016 - Annie Power (1st)
2015 - Faugheen (1st)
2014 - Hurricane Fly (4th)
2013 - Hurricane Fly (1st)

Mares - 1F11 (75% win / 75% place)

2016 - VVM (1st)
2015 - Annie Power (F)*
2014 - Quevega (1st)
2013 - Quevega (1st)

*I have put in Annie Powers fall in there even though he did still win the race so technically has 100% record)

Neptune - 1313 (50% win / 100% place)

2016 - Yorkhill (1st)
2015 - Nichols Canyon (3rd)
2014 - Faugheen (1st)
2013 - Pont Alexandre (3rd)

JLT - 11FF (50% win / 50% place)

2016 - Black Hercules (1st)
2015 - Vautour (1st)
2014 - Djakadam (F)*
2013 - Marito (F)

*Travelling very well when falling and I think it's reasonable to say based on two 2nds in Gold Cups since - he would have been involved in the finish if not falling

Gold Cup - 2223 (0% win / 100% place)

2016 - Djakadam (2nd)
2015 - Djakadam (2nd)
2014 - On His Own (2nd)
2013 - Sir Des Champs (3rd)


Don Poli and Vautour have won the RSA and the Ryanair for Mullins in this period but they show form lines of (614F) RSA and (1P6-) Ryanair. The Triumph and Albert Bartlett yielded 0 winners in this time, as did the World Hurdle (-829) and the Queen Mother (2-P-) So they are all races that i'm keen to avoid, though sticking Douvan in looks like a free shot this year!

The only other race that you could look at is the Bumper. Now he tends to throw a lot of darts at the race so I tend to leave it out of this bet but if you wanted to look at the mount of Ruby Walsh in the race you would have:

Bumper - 3021 (25% win / 75% place)

2016 - Bacardys (3rd)
2015 - Belshill (10th)
2014 - Shaneshill (2nd)
2013 - Briar Hill (1st)

So the place record is decent. very hard to pinpoint his ride this early out but not a race to discount.

So that leaves me with 6 races for me to try and get 4 winners from, or adding the bumper in you get it from 7. The beauty of these races in particular is even when he doesn't get the win, it's unlikely to not place so you can use these in each way multiples especially around this time when the prices still offer each way value . In those 7 races over the 4 years - only 6 out of 28 runs finished outside of the places, with Annie Power certain to win which should have made it only 5 times that he has missed out.

2111112P11411F111313302111FF2223

In these races when a horse has completed he's only missed out from placing in 2 attempts

Unusually for this time of year the first pick/Ruby Supreme horse is far from certain which muddies the water a little for that race. But based on what we know right now you have the following horses in these races:

Supreme
Airlie Beach / Crack Mome / Melon

Arkle
Min

Champion Hurdle
Annie / Faugheen / Nichols Canyon?

Mares
VVM / Limini

Neptune
Invitation Only

Bumper
Getabird

JLT
Yorkhill / American Tom

Gold Cup
Djakadam


I'm keen to try and throw a few low stake shots with this technique this year to try and utilise the each way angle. The 3 in bold are the ones I really like in terms of placing a bet right now with targets as clear as can be this far out with Mullins. Just those 3 races read the form lines:

112P13132223

Which look ideal for an each way acca but all 3 have strong hands to potentially win. With the yankees being mentioned too you could also look at using this approach for a yankee/lucky15.

A combination of the above horses is what I'm thinking. If we can see Annie and Faugheen and see all is well with them and when the Supreme picture surely gets a bit clearer then the above races should provide plenty of options.

Here were my bets using this idea last year and when I placed them, both were to win which weren't too far away

December : Min (2) Douvan (1) Faugheen (X) Yorkhill (1)
February : Annie (1) VVM (1) Yorkhill (1) Vautour (Gold Cup)
 
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Good work that Jono...
 
I'm right in thinking every selection there was a Ruby ride? (as a side note - Be interesting to see if your yankees would have been profitable from SP.)

Very interesting to piece it all together like that, 8 races that you can be quite sure Mullins will target his better horses at, and I'd say will have likely fav in 4 of those (CH, Mares, JLT, Neptune) possibly 5 with the bumper. The 'place' part brings in Min and Djakadam and I certainly see where you're coming from there, but I think they'd be still each way prices on the Monday before it started.
IF it was me (and I do have similar bets on already, without having the excellent data you've put forward) I'd be concentrating on the ones I feel confident he'll have the favourite in, as the win part is reeeeaaaaalllly what I want at this stage?

From your data, I'd bet that Mullins/Walsh will be SP fav in the CH, Mares, Neptune, Bumper and JLT .... (maybe bumper not the best example)

Champion Hurdle - I'd have as 1/100 that he has the SP fav (Annie, Faugheen, Nichols Canyon, Yorkhill, VVM - literally any)
Mares - The money will certainly come for VVM to reverse the AJ form and if Limini was picked, she'd be fav, and obviously AP...
Neptune - Not the depth in this at the moment, but by Sunday afternoon IO could be many peoples idea of the banker if DD gets brushed aside (a big IF but they are going for different races and even defeat might not signal the end) ...
JLT - Incredibly hard to imagine Yorkhill or American Tom (whichever lines up) not being the SP fav

So if I was having this bet now, I'd concentrate on the combinations on those races and the horses in them:

1. Annie, VVM, IO, Yorkhill
2. Faugheen, VVM, IO, Yorkhill
3. Faugheen,Annie,IO,Yorkhill
4. Annie,Limini,IO,Yorkhill
5. Faugheen,Limini,IO,Yorkhill
6. Annie,VVM,IO,American Tom
7. Faugheen, VVM, IO,American Tom
8. Faugheen,Annie,IO,American Tom
9. Annie,Limini,IO,American Tom
10. Faugheen,Limini,IO,American Tom

Now I don't know the odds for all those yet (will maybe edit this later) but one of those, i'd be hoping to end up with the 4 SP favs? (I think thats every combo covered - taking it in good faith Annie or Faugheen do arrive at the CH of course, and that IO doesn't bomb out this weekend)

I suppose the problem is, even with the degree of 'certainty' I have there, I need 10 bets to cover the combinations I like.... (however I suppose enough of them cover each other, but I am almost 100% dependent on IO winning(placing)

Might be worth the risk, I need to plug in the odds...
 
Also, Betway are best priced on Douvan (8/13) and Josies Orders (11/4) ... 2 pts here, 2 pts there over the festive period (each time I get a winner) and Wednesday could become very exciting #backthefavourite (5.05/1 currently)
 
I'm right in thinking every selection there was a Ruby ride?(as a side note - Be interesting to see if your yankees would have been profitable from SP.)
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All bar Sir Des Champs I believe. If I was to have done yankees at SP I would have had the following odds (removing the 2 non runners in Faugheen & Vautour:

December : Min (15/8) Douvan (1/4) Yorkhill (3/1) : £110 stake returning £344.69 (+£234.69)
February : Annie (5/2) VVM (4/6) Yorkhill (3/1) : £110 stake returning £498.33 (+£388.33)

Which surprised me actually considering that's with 1 leg on both wiped out. I cannot remember the prices I had on each at the time they were placed but they would have been a fair bit better for sure, I would say I'd go and dig that out but I don't think I want to now seeing that! :disgust: Perhaps a yankee at least this far out would be the best route to go down considering the risk of an injury/change of target occurring wouldn't wipe out the bet completely, like mine did last year?

So a better approach using this strategy could be to place a yankee or two building up to the festival, and then come the festival - build a combination of accumulators on those races? As even taking SP a 4 fold is likely to still have a decent return with the Mullins merry-go-round no longer an issue?

I agree that those are the likely races for WM to have the SP fav. It would be interesting to see the odds on all of those combinations Kev.
I would likely just look at this as a few speculative bets but whether you could fine tune it so you can cover the majority of options and still be likely in profit if it comes in?

If you were to think this time last year in those races you probably had these horses as the fav:

Supreme - Min
Arkle - Douvan
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen
Mares - Annie
Neptune - Bellshill / Yorkhill (I think Bellshill was still fav at this time?)
Bumper - No idea
JLT - Killultagh Vic
Gold Cup - Vautour? (or at least that was Mullin's shortest price)

Only the top 2 in bold and (maybe Yorkhill) ended up racing in where the market suggested though it wasn't particularly switching targets but injuries which did the most damage last year to the above's targets. Faugheen injury also had a knock on effect with Annie and the Mares and KV in the JLT.

I the above is a good reminder though that it's probably best to wait until closer to the festival for this, bar maybe a speculative yankee/4 fold. I 'll definitely be using the above come the Tuesday morning of the festival with a range of bets to hopefully cover most of the races mentioned.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Also, Betway are best priced on Douvan (8/13) and Josies Orders (11/4) ... 2 pts here, 2 pts there over the festive period (each time I get a winner) and Wednesday could become very exciting #backthefavourite (5.05/1 currently)
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I'm in! Better odds that than I thought they were - good find
 
Any Invitation Only backers for Cheltenham should be taking a price now, I'm told he wins today....
 
Istabraq said:
Any Invitation Only backers for Cheltenham should be taking a price now, I'm told he wins today....
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Reliable source Ista? The way connections have spoken about this recently, I really think this is another Yorkhill!
 
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TheRowebot said:
Reliable source Ista? The way connections have spoken about this recently, I really think this is another Yorkhill!
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About as reliable as you can get, though this is the same source that told me to back Champagne Fever AP for the Potato race....
 
Disappointing to say the least, could he need further ?
Potato race ?
 
I think even if he did go further he wouldn't get past DD if they met again... have to see what they say?
 
Very strange run from IO. Ruby went up on the inside early then dropped back and never looked happy.

Great performance from Death Duty though
 
The Tizzard horse looked good today at Hereford, Finian's Oscar.

Anyone see it?

Neptune/Albert Bartlett worthy?
 
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