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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

I was completely on the fence with ADO and American Tom, but now kev has made that choice for me :encouragement:
My selection is American Tom in the JLT guys
 
Great idea guys ill have Getabird in the Champion Bumper please.
 
Great idea guys ill have Getabird in the Champion Bumper please, hes as short as 5/1 but there is 6/1 around, I realise that hes a bit shorter than others that people have put up, but he rates as a banker for me (unltil Carter Mckay ruins it all by winning half the track this weekend!!)
 
billymag said:
Great idea guys ill have Getabird in the Champion Bumper please, hes as short as 5/1 but there is 6/1 around, I realise that hes a bit shorter than others that people have put up, but he rates as a banker for me (unltil Carter Mckay ruins it all by winning half the track this weekend!!)
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watch out for Ballyward over xmas!
 
Cheers KSS, I see Mr Wylie is on the Final Furlong podcast today wonder if he will give him a positive mention.
 
Happy days will look forward to listening to that. He was on On the Line on Monday and gave him a positive mention
 
I'm looking forward to hearing his views on Crack Mome as he wasn't mentioned on On The Line Monday.
 
Ok so either Jenkins or Lough Derg Spirit for me in the Supreme for my choice

I’ve raised these points in the Supreme thread but incase missed, a few reasons:

1. Hendersons Supreme record / multiple runners

2016 - Altior 1st, Buveur D'Air 3rd
2015 - L'ami Serge 4th
2014 - Josses Hill 2nd, Vaniteux 3rd
2013 - My Tent or Yours 2nd, River Maigue 8th
2012 - Darlan 2nd
2011 - Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd

Form line of: 1342328223

Willie Mullins is the other trainer with an outstanding recent record in the race but i’m less taken with his runners so far compared to both Jenkins & Lough Derg Spirit with just Melon seeming to be the last of the candidates at lay down a marker.

It also shows that he isn’t averse to running his best horses against each other in the same race. His best horses also tend to go down this route.

It's confirmed by Henderson that David Bass will ride Jenkins so there will surely be a ride for Nico in the opening race which I imagine will be Loug Derg Spirit.

2. Form of their hurdles debut runs

So far the form of their debut hurdles run has resulted in:

Jenkins

Pingshou - 4th - beaten 6.75 Lengths - Won next time out (14/1)

Hidden Cargo - 5th - beaten 14.75 Lengths - 2nd next time out (5/1)

Militarian - 7th - beaten 27 .75 Lengths - 4th next time out (4/18 when 100/1)

So it’s working out very well and the second and third in the race should bolster the form too you’d imagine.

Jenkins bumper form looks good too with Moulin A Vent, Brelade and Hardline all winning since.

Lough Derg Spirit

The form of Lough Derg Spirit’s debut has less substance right now:

Give Him Time - 4th - beaten 10 Lengths - 7th next time out (12/1)

Silverhow - 5th - beaten 13.5 Lengths - 9th next run (20/1)

Action Replay - 6th - beaten 16.5 Lengths - 4th next run (10/1)

But you’d hope the 2nd and 3rd may do better on their next runs. It was more the visual impression with this one that struck me

Happy with either to be honest. I imagine Jenkins would prove to be the more popular choice but Lough Derg Spirit is the bigger price.
If this is involved in any each-way multiple i’m even more keen on both
 
Jenkins form is stronger and has more room for improvement if/when Nicky gets him jumping better.
Was there also a rumour that LDS could go for the Neptune?? It may have just been speculation on this forum - but Jenkins seems tailor made for 2m.
 
Yeah there's an unknown that LDS could go up in trip where as Nicky has said Jenkins will stick at 2 miles. Like I said more than happy to go with Jenkins - I think they'll both make out to be very very good horses, personal preference for LDS

Jenkins for the Supreme then?
 
With bitchy choosing Charbel for the JLT, along with my pick.

Would you guys like me to change my pick?

Jenkins looks a strong pick jono, the question is do you wait until after fridays race to 100% decide?
 
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jono said:
Yeah there's an unknown that LDS could go up in trip where as Nicky has said Jenkins will stick at 2 miles. Like I said more than happy to go with Jenkins - I think they'll both make out to be very very good horses, personal preference for LDS

Jenkins for the Supreme then?
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I'd weigh in behind that for now but do we wait until Friday? Jenkins won't shorten much and NH might give us a definite wit LDS?
 
Jenkins won't be running on Friday from what i've heard - he goes Kempton on boxing day for the race Altior won last year so Fridays race shouldn't have much effect however...

If LDS runs as expected - he takes on Captain Forez. There are 3 outcomes to the race that could effect their prices:

1. LDS runs and wins, beating Captain Forez. LDS shortens into i'd say between 8 - 9/1 for the Supreme. Jenkins stays the same

2. LDS and CF both disappoint - LDS drifts out and becomes a riskier proposition antepost (so likely no point in backing him for this) and Jenkins form is knocked back so again his price stays the same

3. Captain Forez wins on Friday boosting Jenkins form and bookies trim Jenkins a point or 2.

All in all probably better to see how the race pans out Friday i'd say. And like Kev says Henderson should give a clearer indication of LDS target after that race too. I hope and expect outcome 1 to happen and I still think the 8-9/1 price would appeal in this kind of bet and we'd be much clearer how good LDS may be
 
Think we have to back both Aldie - can you imagine the if only !
 
Delighted to be on the list of chosen pickers.. Agree with all the selections put up so far but how about you know what I mean Harry for the world hurdle.. That's my pick for the team Yankee
 
:encouragement: for unowwhatimeanharry too!

Should we move this into a new thread? Perhaps one dedicated to 'Multiples/Yankees etc'?
 
Ill move the Yankee posts to one thread later ..good work all
 
Which thread was the work on the national hunt chase on. I think it was jono talking about the jockeys and champers on ice?

Nicholls has confirmed (again) that's where Arpage Darlene is heading and Will Biddick will ride. There were no odds when Nicholls first said it but he's 20s now. Sporting life have advised it but I want to go back and read the posts on here.
 
Kevloaf said:
Which thread was the work on the national hunt chase on. I think it was jono talking about the jockeys and champers on ice?
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Yep that was me Kev. Here's the post from this thread p31:

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/show...17-Antepost-Bets&p=28248&viewfull=1#post28248

Also note this stat on Nichols in the 4 miler:

jono said:
Just a note on this - Paul Nicholls has a shocking record in the race. He's 0/17 winners and only 1/17 placed (2nd in 2012). Doesn't mean he can't win of course but if trends / trainers records are factored in by anyone thought it was worth mentioning
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