Champion Hurdle 2020

[Scooby91]

Market deffo suggests KD is not running. Sharjah being smashed.

Doesn't suggest it. Sharjah would be odds on. KD would be pushed out.

Sharjah was overpriced in what will basically cut up into a match race.

 

[Quevega]

With Labaik, having a picnic at the start

 

[charlie]

I am happy with Fusil Raffles reappearance win and won’t cash out any bets I have on him. :highly_amused:

Three runs in UK/IRE 2 Grade 2 Wins and 1 Grade 1 Win.

Will probably go up to 155 from 152 for that, and I would expect improvement race by race for a first full season racing. Need to find a stone to compete at the end of CH, and plenty of time to find it.

Plenty of untapped potential to watch through his first full season I would expect.

KIV: One year ago today, 10/11/18 Espoir D’Allen made his seasonal debut aged 4yo, winning a Grade 3 Hurdle. RPR of race 143, and Official Rating before and after the race 147. It was the seventh race of his career.

FR is ahead of target on that basis!

Done a complete u-turn on Fusil Raffles. Feel a bit daft admitting cashing out stake at 16/1 only to back at 14/1 a few days later

I said pre-race I'll back him and cash out anything other than a hard held win. It wasn't so I just cashed out. I then watched the race back a few times and changed my mind. He jumps hurdles (barring mistake down the back) like a champion hurdler. It was his first run back after having only been back 3 weeks (don't really buy that Hendo but nice to hear nonetheless) and just think I may have judged him too harshly or perhaps better put, too early. He'll need to step into competitive company and improve but like you say, he has plenty of time to find it.

 

[jono]

Along with adding Honeysuckle 40/1 EW today for the race i've added Sharjah 33/1 EW

Quite obvious reasons as per some previous posts on here for Sharjah. Could very well shorten dramatically over the next month or so and has the entry this Saturday. Supasundae gets a lot of stick over 2 miles but he's as solid a yardstick in the Irish trials and Sharjah's beating of him in December 3.75L reads very well when a back to form Buveur D'Air beat the same horse 2.5L at Punchestown.

 

[Humble Pie]

Done a complete u-turn on Fusil Raffles. Feel a bit daft admitting cashing out stake at 16/1 only to back at 14/1 a few days later

I said pre-race I'll back him and cash out anything other than a hard held win. It wasn't so I just cashed out. I then watched the race back a few times and changed my mind. He jumps hurdles (barring mistake down the back) like a champion hurdler. It was his first run back after having only been back 3 weeks (don't really buy that Hendo but nice to hear nonetheless) and just think I may have judged him too harshly or perhaps better put, too early. He'll need to step into competitive company and improve but like you say, he has plenty of time to find it.

Charlie I confess
Have done the same )

 

[Quevega]

Never trust Nicky Henderson when he's being interviewed (especially when he's leaning on something)

 

[charlie]

Charlie I confess
Have done the same )

Haha nice to hear I wasn’t the only one

 

[Kevloaf]

Am I reading that correctly?

People have watched Fusil Raffles, then backed him to win the Champion Hurdle at 14/1?




Plenty of time to find the improvement needed? I agree..... so why tie up your money now? He's priced as if he's already made the improvement.... he definitely, definitely, definitely has NOT shown any form so far making him a 14/1 shot.


Cash out again I'm wrong at least 10000 times a week but come on fellas... you can't honestly believe you watched a CH winner as Jacob threw everything he had to get past Grand Sancy.

Honestly, you'll look back at this and thank me. Even if he goes on to improve, you'll be able to get a fair price with evidence, you don't need to guess on him now.

 

[Lobos]

Think Fusils will look a different horse in Xmas Hurdle after which 14's could look tasty.

 

[charlie]

Am I reading that correctly?

People have watched Fusil Raffles, then backed him to win the Champion Hurdle at 14/1?

Plenty of time to find the improvement needed? I agree..... so why tie up your money now? He's priced as if he's already made the improvement.... he definitely, definitely, definitely has NOT shown any form so far making him a 14/1 shot.


Cash out again I'm wrong at least 10000 times a week but come on fellas... you can't honestly believe you watched a CH winner as Jacob threw everything he had to get past Grand Sancy.

Honestly, you'll look back at this and thank me. Even if he goes on to improve, you'll be able to get a fair price with evidence, you don't need to guess on him now.

There aren't many other ways to interpret my humble confession!

I concede 14/1 is short, but ultimately it's 1pt with cash out so its a small position with minimal risk (I'd rather take 14's with cash out than 25's without). I can currently cash out 98% of my stake so my money isn't tied up if I change my mind (again ), or if something happens and I want to cash out.

Do I believe I watched a CH winner, no, but I'm not expecting to in November. Of course I would have liked to see him win hard held and would be lying if I said I was really happy with that, but as with any Juvenile stepping up he's a work in progress. The first thing I wanted to see was slick jumping and attacking his hurdles, and I definitely watched a horse (barring a blip down the back) that jumps well enough to be considered a champion hurdler. It was a first run back with an allegedly short prep (not sure how much of that I believe) and the Champion Hurdle market is wide open. Klassical Dream is super short, Pentland Hills is third favourite and the market is then littered with those that have gone chasing or won't feature in this (City Island, BDD, Melon, Laurina, Fakir - the more I type this the more BVD looks decent at 6's).

My position on the race was Saldier (20/1) and Sharjah (33/1), which I am happy with, but I am hopeful something will emerge and it could very well be Fusil Raffles. Under no illusions he will definitely need to take a huge step forward but there's no reason he couldn't make that improvement. Or he could do a Peace and Co, who knows. When I think about how many juveniles fail to make the step up it does make me reflect and think 14's is super short and maybe its a bad bet, I suppose I'll know after the xmas hurdle.

 

[Scooby91]

You have to give klassical dream his dues if he wins this on Saturday.

Hes already priced for the CH like hes Been out and won the morgiana.
The same as sharjah is priced like he was tailed off last 1st time up.

But despite the numbers, it's a real quality race. Remove buveur dair and I'd have this the 1-2-3


What price klassical dream goes, if he wins this could be unthinkable.
The same as IF sharjah doesn't win. I cant fathom him getting any bigger.

 

[Humble Pie]

Am I reading that correctly?

People have watched Fusil Raffles, then backed him to win the Champion Hurdle at 14





Plenty of time to find the improvement needed? I agree..... so why tie up your money now? He's priced as if he's already made the improvement.... he definitely, definitely, definitely has NOT shown any form so far making him a 14/1 shot.


Cash out again I'm wrong at least 10000 times a week but come on fellas... you can't honestly believe you watched a CH winner as Jacob threw everything he had to get past Grand Sancy.

Honestly, you'll look back at this and thank me. Even if he goes on to improve, you'll be able to get a fair price with evidence, you don't need to guess on him now.

Guilty as charged Kev , however 100% transparency should be applauded not gently ? ridiculed �� lol

All “credit” to Charlie for posting first

Getaway Trump is another that divides opinion
I’ve not cashed out but went back in again
Sunday will soon be here

 

[charlie]

Guilty as charged Kev , however 100% transparency should be applauded not gently ? ridiculed �� lol

All “credit” to Charlie for posting first

Getaway Trump is another that divides opinion
I’ve not cashed out but went back in again
Sunday will soon be here

I can take it gently (as an actress said to a bishop )

Kev's post is a good one. Important to challenge opinion. It helps to reassess things and/or see things from another perspective.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fusil Raffles hurdling was the only positive to come out of his seasonal debut, everything else about his run was pretty rubbish tbh.

14/1 is an insult IMO, you'd be wanting 25's+, or at least I would, to even consider him, still not sure I'd back him at that though.

 

[Quevega]

Yep, there's a lot more time running fast or not - in between the 8 hurdles too.

 

[Lobos]

Fusil Raffles hurdling was the only positive to come out of his seasonal debut, everything else about his run was pretty rubbish tbh.

14/1 is an insult IMO, you'd be wanting 25's+, or at least I would, to even consider him, still not sure I'd back him at that though.

Bit of an insult saying rubbish. Grand Sancy ain't that bad a yardstick and was 2/2 on the course plus beat hot fav S Royale into 2nd who himself has v good hurdling form. Fusils only just got back working, was running on ground that would have been completely against him and is still relatively inexperienced because of the time he missed last year. I think people will be eating their words after Kempton. I like him

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Bit of an insult saying rubbish. Grand Sancy ain't that bad a yardstick and was 2/2 on the course plus beat hot fav S Royale into 2nd who himself has v good hurdling form. Fusils only just got back working, was running on ground that would have been completely against him and is still relatively inexperienced because of the time he missed last year. I think people will be eating their words after Kempton. I like him

I'm not saying he can't improve but if you're a Champion Hurdle prospect you beat yardsticks even if not fully revved up. Although it was more a dig at the price, as that is a concern.

I have every belief that he will improve for fitness, but this is the top level we are talking about, Grand Sancy should have been beat near enough on the bridle.

 

[Kevloaf]

Guilty as charged Kev , however 100% transparency should be applauded not gently ? ridiculed �� lol

All “credit” to Charlie for posting first

Getaway Trump is another that divides opinion
I’ve not cashed out but went back in again
Sunday will soon be here

:highly_amused: Never post with any malice, absolutely applaud the transparency.

Doesn't mean it can't be wrong though


Can't imagine there is anyone on here I haven't 'gently ridiculed' over something.


I open each thread as a new tab and often find myself agreeing completely with someone in one thread, then wondering how they manage to dress themselves in another..... all part of the fun

 

[AnFiieLD.]

I’ve backed Saldier for this so very keen to see how the Morgiana unfolds this weekend. Like others here i’m skeptical how much improvement KD has in the locker this year. Saldier was in the process of beating Espoir before coming down and the vibes from Mullins have been positive. Haven’t backed Sharjah but i’ll look to get him onside before the weekend.

 

[Lobos]

I’ve backed Saldier for this so very keen to see how the Morgiana unfolds this weekend. Like others here i’m skeptical how much improvement KD has in the locker this year. Saldier was in the process of beating Espoir before coming down and the vibes from Mullins have been positive. Haven’t backed Sharjah but i’ll look to get him onside before the weekend.

Very intriguing race if they all stand their ground. The AP market is going to be shook up whatever the outcome. Happy days.