Champion Hurdle 2019

[archie]

It's hard to put too much faith in quotes and it's a shame that atr didn't film the stable tours so you can see the face when they're speaking the words. Last year, because it was said direct to me, I was confident that Melon would be CH bound but I haven't been there this year so I'm less confident where they will all go.
However, at face value you would say that the current plan is Laurina CH and Benie Des Dieux Mares.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Anyone see anything that could win the Greatwood and become a Champopn Hurdle contender?

 

[Quevega]

Anyone see anything that could win the Greatwood and become a Champopn Hurdle contender?

I would imagine If the Cap Fits and Summerville Boy are the two most likely, if they run in the greatwood and either wins it - they'll be rated up to that sort of level I reckon. Probably won't run though will they ?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I would imagine If the Cap Fits and Summerville Boy are the two most likely, if they run in the greatwood and either wins it - they'll be rated up to that sort of level I reckon. Probably won't run though will they ?

Not sure either are intended runners. Summerville Boy going for the fighting Fifth and ITCF heading to the international hurdle - well that's what I read the other week.

If I owned ITCF he'd be running in the Greatwood. Has to be well handicapped off that mark.

 

[Kevloaf]

Not sure either are intended runners. Summerville Boy going for the fighting Fifth and ITCF heading to the international hurdle - well that's what I read the other week.

If I owned ITCF he'd be running in the Greatwood. Has to be well handicapped off that mark.

Do you think they'll put him in a competitive handicap?

I thought they'd take a more small field approach and go for the more obvious trials (although would end up with some clashes then)...

 

[Scooby91]

Not sure either are intended runners. Summerville Boy going for the fighting Fifth and ITCF heading to the international hurdle - well that's what I read the other week.

If I owned ITCF he'd be running in the Greatwood. Has to be well handicapped off that mark.

I think they should, ideally he'd have a pipe opener then the betfair. But he's got his Mark, he needs a big field compatative race. Bit of hustle and bustle to make him street wise. He'd learn alot.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think they should, ideally he'd have a pipe opener then the betfair. But he's got his Mark, he needs a big field compatative race. Bit of hustle and bustle to make him street wise. He'd learn alot.

A nice pot to pick up too. It wouldn't surprise me if they changed their minds and ran in it.

 

[Ice]

Like summerville boy for this, lost probably 5 lengths with the mistake 2 out so did very well to win after that, would have been an easy winner of the supreme, otherwise. I think he could be one who gives the reigning champion a race, at least. Suppose there could be question marks about him on better ground, we will see!

 

[Big Chac]

Like summerville boy for this, lost probably 5 lengths with the mistake 2 out so did very well to win after that, would have been an easy winner of the supreme, otherwise. I think he could be one who gives the reigning champion a race, at least. Suppose there could be question marks about him on better ground, we will see!

I do like Summerville boy but Id like to see him jump a bit better. I don't think he could get away with losing lengths at his hurdles in the championship race.....

 

[Kevloaf]

Like summerville boy for this, lost probably 5 lengths with the mistake 2 out so did very well to win after that, would have been an easy winner of the supreme, otherwise. I think he could be one who gives the reigning champion a race, at least. Suppose there could be question marks about him on better ground, we will see!

I do like Summerville boy but Id like to see him jump a bit better. I don't think he could get away with losing lengths at his hurdles in the championship race.....

Whenever I think about backing Summerville Boy, I can't bring myself to back him at 14/1 when If The Cap Fits is still freely available at 33/1.

I haven't got any form evidence to present to 'prove' he'd have won the Supreme, but I think he'd have won the Supreme :triumphant: I was so taken with him visually and I have a massive amount of faith in Harry Fry, having already got a Champion Hurdle under his belt in all but prize money and name on the trophy.

Mark Howard in One Jump Ahead is 'suggesting' ITCF is the best novice hurdler Noel Fehily rode last year, and he won Grade 1's on Summerville Boy, Black Op and Draconien ... "arguably the best novice hurdler the Irishman partnered during the 2017/2018 campaign"

I can't wait to see him out, I think he's such a dark horse for this race.

 

[jack1092]

I have the book Kev, but not to hand, presumably that's Mark's opinion and not him quoting Fehily?

I couldn't back Summerville Boy for two reasons, we have to trust his jumping has improved (if it has, wow he could be superb) and two, his performance came on soft ground, and god knows what we will get this year with this global warming...could be firm :highly_amused:

At the 14/1 with Laurina a possible, Samcro also, and Buv already winning two of them, i think there's a lot of things that need to happen for SB to go off 7/1 or shorter come March.

 

[Scooby91]

Whenever I think about backing Summerville Boy, I can't bring myself to back him at 14/1 when If The Cap Fits is still freely available at 33/1.

I haven't got any form evidence to present to 'prove' he'd have won the Supreme, but I think he'd have won the Supreme :triumphant: I was so taken with him visually and I have a massive amount of faith in Harry Fry, having already got a Champion Hurdle under his belt in all but prize money and name on the trophy.

Mark Howard in One Jump Ahead is 'suggesting' ITCF is the best novice hurdler Noel Fehily rode last year, and he won Grade 1's on Summerville Boy, Black Op and Draconien ... "arguably the best novice hurdler the Irishman partnered during the 2017/2018 campaign"

I can't wait to see him out, I think he's such a dark horse for this race.

He's far too short though for this. This is the champion hurdle not the supreme. He's priced as if he's won the greatwood or he came back and won the 2 miler at Aintree. We all know I like itcf but he should be 3 figures on the exchange on what he's done to date. I'd have thought it would work out far bigger than 33s backing him on each start and then the CH.

 

[Kevloaf]

He's far too short though for this. This is the champion hurdle not the supreme. He's priced as if he's won the greatwood or he came back and won the 2 miler at Aintree. We all know I like itcf but he should be 3 figures on the exchange on what he's done to date. I'd have thought it would work out far bigger than 33s backing him on each start and then the CH.

Samcro is priced like he has won 2 champion hurdles though (quite literally) so what price I think ANY horse in that market should be is massively warped

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Samcro is priced like he has won 2 champion hurdles though (quite literally) so what price I think ANY horse in that market should be is massively warped

But he wasn't initially Kev.

The bookies will react to not just liabilities but the exchange prices too and Samcro is the most backed horse of any race of the whole festival, for the Champion Hurdle on Betfair X, £12.6k matched on him, Buveur D'air £9.2k.

The nearest horse for weight of money on it anywhere at the festival is Might Bite for the Gold Cup, who has had £12.5k matched.

Now I am not saying it is correct, in fact I actually agree, he is too short currently, but as a bookmaker you are not going to sit there with some 8's available whilst the exchanges are only at 4.7, just because he 'shouldn't be that price'.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Ruby interview on the ATR site today:

Quevega and Annie Power were stars for Willie Mullins in recent years and Walsh feels Laurina, winner of the Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, could be one to fill the boots of those brilliant performers.

“She has summered really well and she looks a picture. Whether she will be trained as a Champion Hurdle mare or a Mares’ Hurdle mare, only time will tell,” he said.

“She looked our best novice last year, but has to step up to open company now. She has got big boots to fill, but you’d be hoping that she’d be up there with the best mares we’ve had in the past.

“You’re looking for the next superstar and you’re hoping it could be her.”

 

[jono]

Incredibly excited by the potential lineup for this race - with the biggest reason that Buveur D'Air might actually be able to silence his doubters and finally get the credit he deserves.

Samcro (more so) and Laurina look to have all the potential in the world but I still don't think we have seen the very best of Buveir D'Air.
We know he's going to go down the same route as last season and bypass a clash in Dublin but fingers crossed connections take the handbrake off him this season. Would love to see Fehily back on Buveur though

 

[Quevega]

Incredibly excited by the potential lineup for this race - with the biggest reason that Buveur D'Air might actually be able to silence his doubters and finally get the credit he deserves.

Samcro (more so) and Laurina look to have all the potential in the world but I still don't think we have seen the very best of Buveir D'Air.
We know he's going to go down the same route as last season and bypass a clash in Dublin but fingers crossed connections take the handbrake off him this season. Would love to see Fehily back on Buveur though

There's not been a strong champion hurdle since Jezki won. Annie Power won hers without sweating. I don't believe Buveur dair has faced a serious challenge yet, so this year looks like testing him, and I personally don't think he'll be able to live with the two irish challengers, assuming they stay fit and well and hurdling.
Summerville boy may even test him before cheltenham if he gets soft ground and a good pace.
And with Mick Jazz and Melon, and maybe supasundae, we should get a good guage prior to march, on the strength of the irish.

 

[jono]

There's not been a strong champion hurdle since Jezki won. Annie Power won hers without sweating. I don't believe Buveur dair has faced a serious challenge yet, so this year looks like testing him, and I personally don't think he'll be able to live with the two irish challengers, assuming they stay fit and well and hurdling...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Samcro win. Everyone seems to adore the horse and you can add me into that list. Potentially he could add his name alongside some of the best horses we have seen in recent times and if that is the case then he may just be a better horse than BvD no matter what form the current champion turns up in in March. When I look at Samcro though for me he doesn't scream a 2 mile hurdler, I just don't think that is the route that will bring out the very best in him. So no matter how good he may be, he may not get there going this direction imo. Do I think Samcro will become a 169+ horse (currently what BvD is) - yes. Do I think he will get to that level over hurdles - not sure.

Laurina - I think has much more to prove. No one can deny she destroyed her opposition last season but if you had put either Samcro or BvD in those situations, or most CH hopefuls - they would have done the same. I see Ruby came out and gave her a positive mention recently. Will be interesting to hear his view and the vibes on a match up between her and Samcro as he couldn't see Samcro beat last season and clearly rates him extremely highly.

I do 100% agree this year will be by far BvD biggest test.

However I look back at his hurdle runs in open company over the last 2 seasons and he's only had arguably 3 real 'proper' runs - 2 x Champion Hurdles and an Aintree Hurdle. You could argue the Christmas hurdle at Kempton but otherwise the other 3/4 races have been joke races, with Geraghty barely touching or pushing the horse so best to just be ignored. Not sure anyone can say he didn't win his first CH impressively, brushed everyone aside at Aintree on his next run. His second CH win was a harder fought race but he managed to fight off Melon even with the jockey waiting until as late as possible to draw on the whip. At 7 and what will be 8 years old - have we seen the best of Buveur D'Air yet??

It's of course dangerous to presume a horse has more to give than what we see as it's not always the case and can be very misleading - i'm basing it on assumption over evidence but my stance is he is a very very good horse ideally suited to 2 mile hurdling (the same I don't think can/will be said of Samcro) and we will see BvD raise his game the better the opposition are.

 

[Folski]

I think BD is underrated to be honest that being said if BG is on him he hasn't a hope in my opinion riding too bad to be true at the moment.

 

[archie]

Melon only has to find a neck with BDA and Willie thinks there's a bit more improvement in him. He was going every bit as well as Samcro when they fell at Punchestown and I think that 9/1 is a decent price if not as attractive as the 16/1 this time last year.