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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
As discussed previously, it is even more laughable now that they install Samcro shorter than a 2 time winning Champion Hurdler already!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
As discussed previously, it is even more laughable now that they install Samcro shorter than a 2 time winning Champion Hurdler already!
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Will be 7/4 after Fridays romp and BvD will be a nice each way price.....hopefully!
 
"He's in great form and the plan is for him to start off in the Grade 2 WKD at Down Royal on Friday," reported Elliott.

"I've spoken to Michael and Eddie and we've decided to keep him over hurdles this season in the hope that he can develop into a Champion Hurdle contender. I've never had a Champion Hurdle horse before and Gigginstown have yet to win it and we thought that it was worth giving Samcro a shot at that race."

"He started off in point-to-points and when we bought him at Aintree he was bought as a future chaser and hopefully we will see him over fences in the future. As far as this season is concerned though he will be staying over hurdles and we are going to try and follow a path towards the Champion Hurdle.

"I'm under no illusions about the challenge that he faces but he was a top-class novice hurdler last season and the race he won at Cheltenham has produced a number of previous champion hurdlers in Faugheen, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq.

"Samcro has a long way to go to be mentioned in the same breath as them but he's done absolutely everything that we have asked of him so far and I'm hoping that there's more to come.

"We'll get Friday out of the way first and we'll just taken things race by race but he'll follow a traditional sort of path to Cheltenham."
 
Madness. I wonder if his schooling over fences has been moderate.
 
A crushing blow for my book that! Can't believe the decision really.. I think they've forgone any chance of him having a stellar career over fences. It's a hell of a risk. If he wins the champion hurdle I guess people will say it's justified, and I guess that would see the rest of his career over hurdles, could obviously become a multiple winner of the race. But either way we won't be seeing him at the top level over fences, i'd be sure of that. Hope he wins and becomes a superstar hurdler, nagging worry for me would be that they were worried that he might lack pace for the supreme unless the ground was bottomless
 
It's certainly a brave decision. There's going to be a lot of talk about in the next few months anyway.

I applaud them, it certainly adds something extra to the hurdling division.
 
Can't believe there has been a further round of cuts for this race after the hurdling confirmation.

Didn't look particularly speedy over his hurdles last year, fell in his last start just as things were getting going, and potentially up against one of the best fields in a long while, 5/2 no thanks. As mentioned before once it became clear Samcro and Laurina were both being aimed here, this race became a no bet race for me....could be an absolute cracker though, fingers crossed most of the main contenders make it.
 
I personally think that Laurina will end up in the Mares Hurdle.
"Being trained with the Champion Hurdle in mind"..

I'm reading that as:
1) Staying over hurdles - check
2) Will be a Champion Hurdler at some point - check
3) Champion Hurdle this season? - hmmm - not sure

Melon (Champion Hurdle) and Laurina (Mares) is how I would see it - with Laurina stepping in for Melon if there is an injury/loss of form. (OR if she REALLY proves to be THAT good)
(No hurry - she is still only five, going on six)
 
Not the route I would have gone down at all but it makes the CH potentially the most highly anticipated race at next years festival which can't have been said for a fair few years.

Samcro's price over the last 2 or so months has left me pretty shocked but I could see the reason. However i'm genuinely staggered how bookies have clipped him again this morning and made him favourite over BvD... :very_drunk:

archie said:
Madness. I wonder if his schooling over fences has been moderate.
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Could very well be. However I'd be guessing the decision came down to the fact that Elliott felt he needed Samcro in the 2 mile hurdling division to help him get that all important trainers title. Elliott, alongside Gigginstown should always have a strong hand when it comes to the big staying chases throughout the season - both in novice and open company and would be more than up to matching or beating Mullins in that regard (on paper). Even with the Arkle - Mengli Khan holds strong claims compared to the likely opposition.

Compare that to the CH where although Mick Jazz was able to get his fair share of prize money last season, without Samcro Mullins could have had a pretty uncontested hand in Melon & possibly Laurina. With the following 1st place prize money up for grabs in the 4 big Irish 2 mile races:

€50,000 Morgiana
€59,000 Ryanair Hurdle
€84,000 Irish Champion
€162,000 Punchestown Champion Hurdle

He probably feels he needs Samcro competing in my opinion
 
For those that attempt to second guess targets and if horses will avoid each other.
Jono makes a good point.
The Elliott v Mullins facor is massive and will lead to more clashes than we might have seen in previous years.
Pretty sure we'll see Samcro v Melon v supasundae soon enough and maybe Laurina joins them later in the season, as she's entitled to be stepped up gradually until cheltenham I would think.
Brilliant decision by Elliot, fucking boring when they all go chasing, a chasing career can last from 6-11 at the top level so there's plenty of competition on that sphere.
When the novices all go chasing it leaves no real quality clashes for most of the season and in last couple of years a shite champion hurdle as well.
Even current champion hurdler went chasing before reverting when the injuries kicked in with ricci's horses.
 
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I have to agree Quevega, I think the hurdle division has been let down in recent years by many opting to go down the chasing route and am very happy Gordon/Gigginstown have some bottle about them to try and mix it up.

Samcro was a first season hurdler in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, against tough, more experienced opposition, and whilst we can not say for sure whether he would have won or not what we do know is it was looking extremely likely he was going to finish ahead of some mid 160 rated animals, and given the possibility of improvement for a second season over hurdles I struggle to see why you would not want a Champion Hurdle under your belt whilst you can.
 
Exciting for the race.
Too short to back on all known form now but will likely have 'justified' it by the day.
I was confident they'd go chasing but we can put a line through it now and look forward to a very exciting year ahead on both sides of the sea with a big crescendo in March ... as BVD and Samcro will have some decent animals to face this season on the way.
 
If I've read Friday's race conditions correctly, Samcro has to give 5lb to Sharjah who is officially rated 5lb inferior. Also may have to give up to 15lb to others if they're declared.
 
Foe each way backers are we to assume that you're backing to fill 3rd place behind Samcro and BVD?
 
Joleg said:
Foe each way backers are we to assume that you're backing to fill 3rd place behind Samcro and BVD?
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I don't think it's an each way race to have a play in (and hasn't been). The fact you may have what looks like 'a match' doesn't lend itself to those kinds of bets.

I have backed If The Cap Fits each way at 40s but I was fully expecting Samcro to be over fences at that stage. I'd probably still back ITCF now at 40s but I'd say that'd be a fair price rather than a good one...
 
Kevloaf said:
I don't think it's an each way race to have a play in (and hasn't been). The fact you may have what looks like 'a match' doesn't lend itself to those kinds of bets.

I have backed If The Cap Fits each way at 40s but I was fully expecting Samcro to be over fences at that stage. I'd probably still back ITCF now at 40s but I'd say that'd be a fair price rather than a good one...
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Where is the current value in this market? I honestly can't see any that that I'd be rushing to back at the prices.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Where is the current value in this market? I honestly can't see any that that I'd be rushing to back at the prices.
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Samcro is way too short already and in all likelyhood be unbackable price for the rest of the season.
Buveur D'Air for all i'm a massive fan and think he sets the bar by a fair distance at this stage - personally I want to see less of the 'educational' rides this season and see him pushed, as unlikely as that may be
Laurina at 10's is borderline value if you believe she has what it takes to step up but i'm dubious and there's still a very strong chance she could run in the mares

I've also backed ITCF at 40/1, at a time when I expected both Samcro and Laurina to head elsewhere but now, with those 3, it's very hard to make a strong case for any horse at a big price to fill the frame, as Joleg points out

My approach will likely be to try and include Samcro in a few more multiples here and there but back Buveur D'Air when NRNB comes about as i'm almost certain he'll be 5/2 at least at that point. All the attention will be in Ireland now for this race so as crazy as it sounds, the 2 time champion will just go along his business almost the forgotten horse so I can't see his price shortening much whilst Samcro and co are still being aimed here
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Where is the current value in this market? I honestly can't see any that that I'd be rushing to back at the prices.
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I don't think there is any at the moment.

The closest would be Buveur D'air - but he's got a new set of challengers this year. Right now he should be fav on what he's done but the ante post market can't take just the form book into account (same principle as Presenting Percy really) - if they made Samcro too big, you just have to take the gamble on the expected progression (as plenty of people have)...
 
Leman14 said:
I personally think that Laurina will end up in the Mares Hurdle.
"Being trained with the Champion Hurdle in mind"..

I'm reading that as:
1) Staying over hurdles - check
2) Will be a Champion Hurdler at some point - check
3) Champion Hurdle this season? - hmmm - not sure

Melon (Champion Hurdle) and Laurina (Mares) is how I would see it - with Laurina stepping in for Melon if there is an injury/loss of form. (OR if she REALLY proves to be THAT good)
(No hurry - she is still only five, going on six)
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I can see why many think Laurina will end up in the Mares however are we not forgetting Benie des Dieux? Is she (BdD) really going to mix it in the Ryanair when you have Douvan/Min/UdS around, or be chucked into the deep end in the Gold Cup when we've seen so much evidence on their reluctance to really test their star Mares?

Add in her known health struggles and I can't really see anything other than her trying to regain her crown next March? Even after Cheltenham I though Apples Jade was a far better horse and the tables would turn at Punchestown in the re-match but BdD destroyed AJ in Ireland. I'd love to see AJ back on track and then I think she could still beat the Mullins mare but there's a fair bit of hope in there rather than expectancy .

So that being the case, i'm not sure why they would stick her in the Mares when they have a stablemate that looks to have the edge in that race already...

Dependant on her not flopping and running to her potential this year, I can see Laurina going for the Mares but only if

A) Benie des Dieux gets an injury
B) BdD goes for another race (hugely unlikely imo)
c) Apples Jade is right back to top form and beats BdD well in the build up to Cheltenham
 
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