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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
archie said:
Melon only has to find a neck with BDA and Willie thinks there's a bit more improvement in him. He was going every bit as well as Samcro when they fell at Punchestown and I think that 9/1 is a decent price if not as attractive as the 16/1 this time last year.
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The way they have purred over Laurina and Ruby's words about her being a 'special one' I can't see how she would not be ahead of Melon in the Champion Hurdle ranks for the yard, IF she even contests this of course. I still think she won't personally. But Melon was never held in that regard, they always 'liked' him and said he was a Champion Hurdle horse, so maybe the best he had at the time, but not in that 'special' bracket that they seem to give away when talking about Laurina, and some previous horses.

Some quotes from the yard:

Mullins "We’ve always thought she was very, very decent"

Townend "She's special, very special" - After winning at Cheltenham.

Walsh "She has got big boots to fill, but you'd be hoping that she's be up there with the best mares we've had in the past" - Annie Power, Quevega, both of whom ran in the Mares hurdle, and then obviously Annie went and won the Champion Hurdle!

Accolades that obviously need to be realised, taking the Novice Mares' race is hardly putting her right up there, but IF she is as good as I believe she is then she will beat Melon, and 10/1 is more a solid price than what Melon is, however, I can see why she is 10's and that will be that the likelihood is she will hack up in the Mares' and then come Champion Hurdle route next season, which is the route I had her down for last season, after the novice race at the festival.
 
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Will melon go for the WKD hurdle again? As samcro is going there. So should be an early season match up. Little chance laurina goes there too. But that would be eye opener at this stage if all 3 diddnt back out. Could even send one novice chasing.

At some point buveur dair is going to be an each way price for this race. Hopefully just in time for the nrnb
 
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ORs
169 BDA
165 Melon
160 Samcro
152 Laurina

Timeform (24/4/2018)
168 BDA
167 Melon
159p Samcro
150p Laurina

Willie on Melon:
'He’ll stay over hurdles and will go the Champion Hurdle route. There are a couple of different reasons to think that he is a little bit better than his Champion Hurdle run, so we’d love to get him back there in top shape for another crack at it.'

Willie on Laurina:
'She has come back in really good shape. I think she’ll stay hurdling. As far as we are concerned, she could be anything. She is unbeaten for us and everything is open to her. I think we’ll train her and campaign her with a view to the Champion Hurdle. She’ll need to improve to get to that level, but she’ll have the mares' allowance in her favour and it wouldn’t surprise me if she did.'

You can absolutely discount anything that Ruby says in public.
 
'I think she’ll stay hurdling' :)

Stinks of a switch to Chasing
 
charlie said:
'I think she’ll stay hurdling' :)

Stinks of a switch to Chasing
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Haha, yeah brought this up before too, and unsurprisingly PP & Betfair have her shorter than anyone else for the Arkle, yet are happy to be best price for her for the Champion Hurdle (along with other bookmakers) and Mares' (only SkyBet go as big as PP & BFSB).
 
charlie said:
'I think she’ll stay hurdling' :)

Stinks of a switch to Chasing
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ComplyOrDie said:
Haha, yeah brought this up before too, and unsurprisingly PP & Betfair have her shorter than anyone else for the Arkle, yet are happy to be best price for her for the Champion Hurdle (along with other bookmakers) and Mares' (only SkyBet go as big as PP & BFSB).
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I would LOVE that ... but can't see it.

I think I convinced a few people to chance her at 14s for the Arkle... whoops
 
Kevloaf said:
I would LOVE that ... but can't see it.

I think I convinced a few people to chance her at 14s for the Arkle... whoops
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Currently the exchanges would say CH / Mares, despite the PP/BFSB prices.
 
Scooby91 said:
Will melon go for the WKD hurdle again? As samcro is going there. So should be an early season match up. Little chance laurina goes there too. But that would be eye opener at this stage if all 3 diddnt back out. Could even send one novice chasing.

At some point buveur dair is going to be an each way price for this race. Hopefully just in time for the nrnb
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Samcro is being aimed there, however, with the ground currently as it is, and little rain about, there's still a chance that won't happen.

I would say there's no chance both run, but if they do i will be in for a nice treat!
 
Personally if I fancied or wanted Melon onside then i'd be holding off until later on the season. 2 miles at a championship pace round Cheltenham looks to bring out the very best in him but outside of those conditions I think he'll get turned over at some point during the season and disappoint, at which point his price may well get into double figures
 
archie said:
ORs
169 BDA
165 Melon
160 Samcro
152 Laurina

Timeform (24/4/2018)
168 BDA
167 Melon
159p Samcro
150p Laurina
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I remember seeing these rating at the end of last season and struggled to understand the Laurina mark.
Marias Benefit was a country mile back in the mares novice hurdle and she has previously won listed and G2 soft ground hurdles and was at one point rated 152, MB may well have underperformed at Cheltenham but Laurina should, for me, have a rating considerably higher than the 150...
 
The problem is that none of the placed horses ran again after Cheltenham so the logical rating mechanism was to assume that Marias Benefit ran well below par and the others were a better guide. The Fairyhouse run and placed horses would tend to confirm that.
 
jono said:
Personally if I fancied or wanted Melon onside then i'd be holding off until later on the season. 2 miles at a championship pace round Cheltenham looks to bring out the very best in him but outside of those conditions I think he'll get turned over at some point during the season and disappoint, at which point his price may well get into double figures
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100% agree
 
quevega said:
Melon - The new My tent or yours ?
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I could see it! I guess it shows that they don't quite have an ideal alternative Champion Hurdle contender in mind as they haven't sent him to the Arkle as yet. Alright he finished 2nd in this last year, but i think he'd be a very decent novice chaser!
 
jack1092 said:
I could see it! I guess it shows that they don't quite have an ideal alternative Champion Hurdle contender in mind as they haven't sent him to the Arkle as yet. Alright he finished 2nd in this last year, but i think he'd be a very decent novice chaser!
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I think willies mind is more along the lines of - Melon coming so close to winning a Champion Hurdle = why not keep her hurdling.
I expect he also thinks he'll be wanting more than one challenger for the championship races where possible, otherwise he's on the decline.
 
I think going chasing is a more long term plan than just winning an Arkle. Mullins has a very, very strong hand with 2 mile chasers already. Footpad and Great Field probably the two least exposed who may be Champion Chase contenders come March...

Would they try and "plug a gap" that may not even be there if other horses improve the way Footpad did? I doubt it -

As has been pointed out, he wasn't far off being the Champion Hurdler and the reason to expect improvement is valid enough (it just depends on to what degree you believe it to be). The 'wind-up' hadn't been mentioned before Ruby mentioned it today but I can totally see why Melon is where he is in the market.

I'm in no rush to back him as jono points out but if Melon wins the Champion Hurlde I don't think anyone would be surprised.
 
Wind op a positive or concern ?


Everything is going well with Buveur D’air and he is on track for another crack at the G1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle next month before, all being well, taking in the G1 Unibet Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I’ve be very happy with him since he came back from Martinstown where he enjoyed plenty of fun with Istabraq before returning to Seven Barrows where he underwent a routine wind operation ahead of coming back into full work. It’s nothing serious and has not effected his normal routine one iota.
 
mayo said:
Wind op a positive or concern ?


Everything is going well with Buveur D’air and he is on track for another crack at the G1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle next month before, all being well, taking in the G1 Unibet Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I’ve be very happy with him since he came back from Martinstown where he enjoyed plenty of fun with Istabraq before returning to Seven Barrows where he underwent a routine wind operation ahead of coming back into full work. It’s nothing serious and has not effected his normal routine one iota.
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Don't no about the wind op, but the plenty of fun with istabraq at martinstown is a positive. As long as he don't test positive.:devilish:
 
ATR have just put a tweet out saying Samcro definitely is being aimed at the Champion Hurdle. Gordon Elliot told Betfair racing apparently.
 
Yep, Samcro confirmed. Fingers crossed there's some rain over here before Friday and i get to see him strutt his stuff :)
 
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