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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
SAMCRO said:
Think its just a problem with oddschecker with paddy power prices. Drifted on oddscheker on a few horses at paddy but normal odds on site
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Yeah just came back on top say that it looks like an error. Was about to get giddy!
 
jack1092 said:
The part about "season wasted" is only true if you think Cheltenham is the be all and end all of NH racing.

At Samcro's experience level, a few easy pots this side of Christmas probably wouldn't teach him much, if he was to race BDA + even lose, he would improve as a horse, and the return bout wouldn't be nailed on to happen the same way. It would just mean the two horses have actually had a top level race in preparation, rather than a walk in the park....like BDA did last year and Hendo admitted he thought he was still undercooked.
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To be honest I'd streams by what I said.

They're potentially keeping Samcro over hurdles for one race ... and one race only. If he does pick up pots before then, so what? It's delaying him going chasing and it'll be am underwhelming season for me if he is swotted aside.

I don't think he'd grey swotted aside mind you, but anything but a won has wasted a season over hurdles.

This next bit isn't specific to you jack bit also don't like the reasoning to keep him over hurdles because of the wealth of staying novice chasets Gigginstown have. The pecking order is Samcro number 1, the rest a clear 2nd! They have no issue running multiple horses in races either so I don't expect that to have any serious sway on Samcro and his target
 
Summerville Boy confirmed as staying over hurdles. Fighting fifth the early target.
 
Kevloaf said:
Welcome back ... :triumphant:

You fancy Summerville Boy?
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Thanks mate - the proper racing is in sight.

Not sure re: Summerville Boy. Was a decent performance in the supreme but champion could be good if BD, Samcro, Melon all turn up.
 
Interesting they are aiming for the Fighting Fifth, I wonder if BvD will turn up also.
 
I think he do will definitely throw a few more challenges BVD way this year after all the walkovers last season and how close the CH was.
 
Innoko said:
Interesting they are aiming for the Fighting Fifth, I wonder if BvD will turn up also.
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I'd imagine BD will start off in the Fighting Fifth again then head to Kempton on Boxing Day. He's still a 7 yr old and lightly raced so I suppose he may still have improvement to come.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'd imagine BD will start off in the Fighting Fifth again then head to Kempton on Boxing Day. He's still a 7 yr old and lightly raced so I suppose he may still have improvement to come.
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Surely does!

10 wins in a row now, not been headed once he hits the front. Has class and the guts.

Under appreciated.... I hope they push him out if Samcro gets declared hurdling. :devilish:

(I feel I can knock Samcro vs BVD until he gets confirmed then I'll have to start thinking more seriously!) Currently BVD has 9 lbs OR and 8 lbs RPR in hand :p
 
He could improve for sure.
But he has definitely mopped up in a weak division, due to injuries and lack of champion novices staying hurdling in last couple of seasons. Even Harrington spotted how average a bunch they were and let Supasundae pick up two big races in Ireland. I've been bored watching the grade one 2 mile hurdle races in England and Ireland and really hope a few of the champion novices stay hurdling for a season at least, especially Samcro.
It'll be hard for BVD followers to desert him this season but I hope he has it tougher than last year, where he was never given much opportunity to improve, which may come back to haunt Henderson this year.
 
An argument can be made for both sides of the different prep routes on either side of the Irish Sea imo. The competative nature of the races in Ireland are an obvious plus with the negative being the probability of soft/heavy ground bottoming put your horse.

It totally depends on the horse in question imo. Whether he has a strong makeup or a fragile one for example. Penhill/Annie Power being examples that dont need much racecourse experience as opposed to the likes of Presenting Percy/Apples Jade who take a bit race conditioning to strip for March. Different strokes....

Expecting the Flogas Chase to be a very strong pointer to the Irish novice chasers again this season.
 
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I was very impressed with Summerville Boy in the Supreme. He met all sorts of trouble in running, and couldn't jump a twig when things got important. Yet he still pulled it out of the bag showing a lovely attitude iMO.

Obviously, he'd need to jump a million times better in a Champion to be competitive. I've just noticed + wonder if it's an error on the RP site but was the Supreme run in the exact same time as the Champion last year?

Certainly an interesting horse to go to war with and i agree with a point made earlier, i hope trainers seize the opportunity of a weaker 2m hurdle division this year.
 
I keep thinking about Summerville Boy and each time have to downgrade his win because of Kalashnikov.

Kalashnikov seems to be the talking horse at the moment, and I am not against him at all for the Arkle or JLT - but I do think his hurdles form has been somewhat overplayed by racing experts.

I haven't gone through the entire Betfair Hurdle field, but of the first 10 home, only 1 horse has had a win, and that was Couer Blimey in a 6 runner maiden on the flat in May - which hardly franks the form at all IMO.

A couple ran OKAY at Cheltenham, but that is Remiluc.

Summerville Boy has finished ahead of Kalashnikov twice, so it's fair to say he is better and the points about him winning despite his jumping are more than fair... however, you'd want to SEE that improvement before you wanted to get too excited about him.

For me, Summerville Boy is interesting, but you can knock the value of his form through Kalashnikov and there is only Faugheen that I've ever seen not jump slickly and win a CH, and obviously he isn't in that calibre.
 
Kevloaf said:
I keep thinking about Summerville Boy and each time have to downgrade his win because of Kalashnikov.

Kalashnikov seems to be the talking horse at the moment, and I am not against him at all for the Arkle or JLT - but I do think his hurdles form has been somewhat overplayed by racing experts.

I haven't gone through the entire Betfair Hurdle field, but of the first 10 home, only 1 horse has had a win, and that was Couer Blimey in a 6 runner maiden on the flat in May - which hardly franks the form at all IMO.

A couple ran OKAY at Cheltenham, but that is Remiluc.

Summerville Boy has finished ahead of Kalashnikov twice, so it's fair to say he is better and the points about him winning despite his jumping are more than fair... however, you'd want to SEE that improvement before you wanted to get too excited about him.

For me, Summerville Boy is interesting, but you can knock the value of his form through Kalashnikov and there is only Faugheen that I've ever seen not jump slickly and win a CH, and obviously he isn't in that calibre.
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When looking through the Betfair Hurdle form I think you need to consider how badly Kalashnikov travelled in running whilst still winning as he liked. To the naked eye he was well beaten halfway out. Had conditions been in his favor how would the form have looked considering he eventually won so comprehensively.
 
SeanRock said:
When looking through the Betfair Hurdle form I think you need to consider how badly Kalashnikov travelled in running whilst still winning as he liked. To the naked eye he was well beaten halfway out. Had conditions been in his favor how would the form have looked considering he eventually won so comprehensively.
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He isn't beating good horses though, sure he can only beat what is there...and you can upgrade the performance if you like.

I just know I'd be dead against him if he was going for the CH this season... and therefore it puts me off getting carried away with Summerville Boy (or anything in the Supreme just yet).


There is just too much credit being given to these two horses so far... I think they're priced as if that've won above average renewals of their respective races, and I am not saying that they can't be that good, I'm just saying they need to prove it.
 
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Is there an argument to say that it was a below average Supreme, and the fact that Summerville Boy won it should actually be proof of that. To jump that poorly and still win may be a sign of just how average the race was.... Kalashnikov's form I've already questioned, Mengli Khan was 3rd and didn't win after December last. Paloma Blue had no win since Dec either and was 4th. Claimintakinrubbish was 5th and also got beaten next time out (last won in Dec).

I feel its perfectly reasonable to take a look at the Supreme and say it was not a good renewal, even at this early stage.

the fact Kalashnikov and Paloma Blue et al may go on to be good chasers, and Arkle contenders, doesn't mean it was a strong Supreme either IMO.

It is pure lack of potential/known opposition combined with the anticipated 'improvement over fences' that have the Supreme 2nd, 3rd and 4th as Arkle contenders in my mind so far.
 
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You took the words out of my mouth Kev. I think had Summerville Boy jumped & ran as well as he coud have the winning distance of the Supreme would have been different gravy!
 
SeanRock said:
You took the words out of my mouth Kev. I think had Summerville Boy jumped & ran as well as he coud have the winning distance of the Supreme would have been different gravy!
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A good Meatloaf song in there somewhere :p
 
Kevloaf said:
Is there an argument to say that it was a below average Supreme, and the fact that Summerville Boy won it should actually be proof of that. To jump that poorly and still win may be a sign of just how average the race was.... Kalashnikov's form I've already questioned, Mengli Khan was 3rd and didn't win after December last. Paloma Blue had no win since Dec either and was 4th. Claimintakinrubbish was 5th and also got beaten next time out (last won in Dec).

I feel its perfectly reasonable to take a look at the Supreme and say it was not a good renewal, even at this early stage.

the fact Kalashnikov and Paloma Blue et al may go on to be good chasers, and Arkle contenders, doesn't mean it was a strong Supreme either IMO.

It is pure lack of potential/known opposition combined with the anticipated 'improvement over fences' that have the Supreme 2nd, 3rd and 4th as Arkle contenders in my mind so far.
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I have a few things to say on this:

1) i think the Ballymore was a better race of the two.

2) I think the entire crop of novice hurdlers last year was far better than anything since the year of Altior/Buveur Dair/Min

3) Whist I think it was a decent supreme, I think the front three/four will prove to be far better than the rest.

4) Kalashnikov (novice chasing) and Summerville Boy (Champion Hurdle) will prove top 3 in their divisions this year.

5) Mengli Khan will be a decent yardstick for the Arkle if he goes that way. Paloma Blue the same.

6) The Ballymore, whilst a better race at the top end (Samcro), will have far more depth down the field and more winners.
 
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