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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
quevega said:
Just done BDD (mares) vs apples jade (CH) 8pts double NRNB sky. 22-1

that goes a lot shorter if it really work's as Gordon puts it.
and if she goes mares I'm left with a bet on BDD at 11/4, vs a potentially tarnished apples' jade which I'd be happy with.
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Yeah some sense to that...

If AJ does win though and go in the Mares you're left withh just another single on BDD?
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah some sense to that...

If AJ does win though and go in the Mares you're left withh just another single on BDD?
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yeah, but I'm not on apples for the mares so would be ok with it as I was on BDD last year, happy to let it ride and 11/4 wouldn't be a bad price assuming laurina not there also.
 
The slight niggle I'll throw at you is that you'd be happy to have a max bet on AJ against the boys over 2m but think she'd lose against Benie Des Dieux over 2m4f?

How highly do you rate Benie Des Douvan?
 
Kevloaf said:
The slight niggle I'll throw at you is that you'd be happy to have a max bet on AJ against the boys over 2m but think she'd lose against Benie Des Dieux over 2m4f?

How highly do you rate Benie Des Douvan?
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different races and prices.
11/8 tomorrow against that lot is a very good price IMO, getting 7lb.
With four stablemates as opposition and no other obvious pace setters amongst Melon and Supasundae .
And 11/4 for a reigning champ who's unexposed against apples, who's never looked at her very best at cheltenham.
 
If AJ doesn’t intend to set a decent enough gallop tomorrow I’d imagine SS will be prominent enough to make sure she does... that’ll suit Melon lovely. She’ll really need to get them off their feet to run a finish out to them IMO.

Also not sure on the Cheltenham point. Valid excuse last time, and in her juvenile campaign she had a setback beforehand... her middle run wasn’t exactly bad?

In saying that tomorrow will be intriguing just to see if she’s at her best, and the in season issue hasn’t raised its head again..
 
quevega said:
different races and prices.
11/8 tomorrow against that lot is a very good price IMO, getting 7lb.
With four stablemates as opposition and no other obvious pace setters amongst Melon and Supasundae .
And 11/4 for a reigning champ who's unexposed against apples, who's never looked at her very best at cheltenham.
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Interesting.

We'll probably not get to find out ... but if she I wins tomorrow and still goes Mares I don't think I could be any more confident and anything near odds against will be really good value.
 
Kevloaf said:
Interesting.

We'll probably not get to find out ... but if she I wins tomorrow and still goes Mares I don't think I could be any more confident and anything near odds against will be really good value.
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anything near odds against for apples jade would be good value indeed, but 11/4 would be fair for BDD.
Id be able to play AJ if wanted and have a no lose race, unless midnight something or something else weird pops up and frightens living daylights out of everyone.

I get what you're trying to say though
11/8 tomorrow getting 7lbs to beat melon and supasundae.
or similar price in the mares at the moment to beat BDD off levels.

IMO the better bet is tomorrow, based on previous comments.
But could easily be proved wrong after the event.
 
jack1092 said:
If AJ doesn’t intend to set a decent enough gallop tomorrow I’d imagine SS will be prominent enough to make sure she does... that’ll suit Melon lovely. She’ll really need to get them off their feet to run a finish out to them IMO.

Also not sure on the Cheltenham point. Valid excuse last time, and in her juvenile campaign she had a setback beforehand... her middle run wasn’t exactly bad?

In saying that tomorrow will be intriguing just to see if she’s at her best, and the in season issue hasn’t raised its head again..
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The pace angle is important tomorrow for sure and we'll see how it pans out.

She's definitely ran her best races away from cheltenham,
and excuses are excuses.
They may be factual.
But it cannot be proven to be an absolute fact that they were the only or indeed any contributing reason for any perceived under perfomance.

And don't get me wrong, referring back to Kev.
I'm not saying she'll lose to BDD in the mares, but I am happy to take an 11/4 chance that BDD may beat her again.
 
Yeah I know what you're saying. 11/4 in a head to head against a horse she's beaten twice and one of those over C&D.

I'm not strongly disagreeing, just thought the confidence in her tomorrow is down to how good she looks this season, which for me rolls on to being a case for to reverse the form at Cheltenham too... but you're point is about the price, so I get it.
 
BetVictor have gone 4 places in this race.
Not NRNB
 
A small part of me thinks the 25/1 for Melon to win tomorrow and the CH would be a smart play.

If he doesn't win tomorrow I won't really fancy him unless he becomes a silly each way price (16/1+) ... and if he does win, he'll be shorter than he is now... certainly sub 6/1
 
Kevloaf said:
A small part of me thinks the 25/1 for Melon to win tomorrow and the CH would be a smart play.

If he doesn't win tomorrow I won't really fancy him unless he becomes a silly each way price (16/1+) ... and if he does win, he'll be shorter than he is now... certainly sub 6/1
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I'd wait to see how strong he is in today's market first. If the money comes then I'll take the 25/1.
 
Hoping for a big run from Supasundae to cement his position in this race rather than the Stayers. Nice to hear Jessie say she feels he has got quicker as he's got older. Would certainly rather back him than Melon at similar prices.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Hoping for a big run from Supasundae to cement his position in this race rather than the Stayers. Nice to hear Jessie say she feels he has got quicker as he's got older. Would certainly rather back him than Melon at similar prices.
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"He's got quicker as he's got older" .
FFS, that's a pearler.
 
1.25
Supasundae (Robert Power)
This is the race of the day and like last year, Supasunade, heads into the race a little bit under the radar, which suits us. I think he has really sharpened up for his two runs this season and he appears to be getting quicker with age. Apples Jade looks sure to bowl along, as she is dropping back to two miles and she has been very impressive, winning her three starts this season. Melon was second in the Unibet Champion Hurdle last season and is bound to have come on for his first run of the season at Christmas time. Supasundae finished in front of him and Petit Mouchoir at Christmas and all I can say is that I’ve been delighted with our horse since. He improved throughout last season and he will love the good ground. It’ll be a hell of a race and they will go some gallop, but that will suit our horse and it would great to win this race again.
 
quevega said:
I know mate, don't worry.
apparently Jessie can do 100m in under 12 secs now. when her electric scooter malfunctions anyway.
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:highly_amused:

Suppose its possible that the horse had been campaigned more as a stayer previously and they are working on speed work with him more this season?
 
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