Champion Hurdle 2019

[jack1092]

Because He's in the big boys league now. He's no superstar as we saw last time. Iv no interest in time figures. People have gone way overboard on him he needs to improve to put upto BD. Not the other way round.

So he lost it in his first run of this season, not really when falling as a novice- ok!

I haven't said really anything about BDA or Samcro needing to do anything, i have said with the ground being how it should be there can be no excuses from Hendo to really not run.

Haven't said anything about ratings or who i thinks better lol

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I think theres no chance he goes chasing now surely. Morgiana?

Edited above .... but if they get beat cozily having already had a prep run surely they would consider it? Althouh not sure how much a detrimental impact it would have if they started him over the bigger obstacles at this stage in the season

 

[Folski]

Because He's in the big boys league now. He's no superstar as we saw last time. People have gone way overboard on him he needs to improve to put upto BD. Not the other way round.

There is definitely a case there to say BD is the best of a bad bunch, it might be unlikely but there is a case there for it. He’s finished ahead of Melon & Mick Jazz last year, Mytent the year before hardly unbelievable form. I think he won cozily last year but I don’t think Melon has actually won a G1. No doubt you’ll point to Footpad & PM in behind in his first year. Are we now to say that they have also failed in the big boys league though and are not superstars. What interests me is if BD is so good why did Barry go to Ascot to ride Harry instead of him, I can kind of understand that one for his novice chase debut but what I can’t understand is why he went to Newbury to ride some McManus thing for Elliott in the Challow instead of BD who was prob near JLT fav at the time. Now we are going back a bit here but it would seem to me BG would have thought Yanworth was the better chance in the CH.

 

[Scooby91]

So he lost it in his first run of this season, not really when falling as a novice- ok!

I haven't said really anything about BDA or Samcro needing to do anything, i have said with the ground being how it should be there can be no excuses from Hendo to really not run.

Haven't said anything about ratings or who i thinks better lol

When he left his novice season that air of invincibility is gone straight away. Hes going 2 miles hes set to face far better opposition than he ever has before.

It's the talk of people thinking other trainers are scared of samcro or bottling it if there horse misses a race he's in.
He's put on a pedestal (not by yourself) that's well beyond his talent. As if he's miles better than any other horse that's been before him, when in reality he's beat a bunch of staying novices over 2 1/2. And although it's possible he's still got a huge ammount to prove to think he'll win a CH.

 

[Scooby91]

Edited above .... but if they get beat cozily having already had a prep run surely they would consider it? Althouh not sure how much a detrimental impact it would have if they started him over the bigger obstacles at this stage in the season

I don't know the answer tbh. My immediate thought would be they wouldn't even consider it. But I could be miles out.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I don't know the answer tbh. My immediate thought would be they wouldn't even consider it. But I could be miles out.

Personally hope he doesn’t as been betting as if he will stay hurdling, also won’t be watching race live on Saturday

 

[Kevloaf]

This "bad bunch" that Buveur D'air beat first time round did include Footpad and Sceau Royal didn't it? Or do we not class them as decent level of horse at all now?

Altior's form gets franked by having BVD back in 3rd in his Supreme, but the other way around doesn't seem to get as much love.

 

[Kevloaf]

There is definitely a case there to say BD is the best of a bad bunch, it might be unlikely but there is a case there for it. He’s finished ahead of Melon & Mick Jazz last year, Mytent the year before hardly unbelievable form. I think he won cozily last year but I don’t think Melon has actually won a G1. No doubt you’ll point to Footpad & PM in behind in his first year. Are we now to say that they have also failed in the big boys league though and are not superstars. What interests me is if BD is so good why did Barry go to Ascot to ride Harry instead of him, I can kind of understand that one for his novice chase debut but what I can’t understand is why he went to Newbury to ride some McManus thing for Elliott in the Challow instead of BD who was prob near JLT fav at the time. Now we are going back a bit here but it would seem to me BG would have thought Yanworth was the better chance in the CH.

PLenty of people thought Yanworth had a better chance in that CH though, he went off fav. They were proven t obe wrong though.

Actual race course evidence has to trump what connections thought before the race.

 

[Innoko]

I think it's jut refreshing to see the top novices from the previous season willing to take BvD on.

I think it's probably taken NH a bit by surprise.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think it's jut refreshing to see the top novices from the previous season willing to take BvD on.

I think it's probably taken NH a bit by surprise.

Must be the first time in years that the Champion Hurdler, Supreme and Ballymore winners met in the same race, pre festival?

 

[Quevega]

Must be the first time in years that the Champion Hurdler, Supreme and Ballymore winners met in the same race, pre festival?

Lets hope it happens, and if Buvuer D'air beats them and goes on to beat them again in March then he deserves all the credit in the world, His two previous champions though were pretty weak in comparison (they'd be below average renewals for sure)

 

[jack1092]

This "bad bunch" that Buveur D'air beat first time round did include Footpad and Sceau Royal didn't it? Or do we not class them as decent level of horse at all now?

Altior's form gets franked by having BVD back in 3rd in his Supreme, but the other way around doesn't seem to get as much love.

As they had just come out of juveniles its night on impossible for them to win it that year so whilst they were good horses, i wouldn't say their novice chase form give BDA form boosts- too much anyway.

If i said that Min was going back for the CH would anyone give him a shout?

 

[Quevega]

Must be the first time in years that the Champion Hurdler, Supreme and Ballymore winners met in the same race, pre festival?

Don't think it's ever happened

 

[Kevloaf]

Lets hope it happens, and if Buvuer D'air beats them and goes on to beat them again in March then he deserves all the credit in the world, His two previous champions though were pretty weak in comparison (they'd be below average renewals for sure)

Out of interest, when did we last have a strong renewal?

2009 - Punjabi won at 22/1 and the fav was Binocular who was 2nd in the Supreme the year before
2010 - Binocular 'bounced back and the fav was Go Native who came nowhere
2011 - Hurricane Fly beat Peddlers Cross and Oscar WHiskey and Thousand Stars next two who both needed further
2012 - Rock On Ruby won, Hurricane Fly 4/6f disappointing in 3rd with Binocular back for more...
2013 - Hurricane Fly bounced back reversed the form with Rock On Ruby
2014 - Jezki 1 MTOY 2 TNO 3 HF 4 - strongest so far but HF clearly not at his best that day?
2015 - Faugheen led home the Mullins 1-2-3 but CLEARLY was a cut above HF by this point, not competitive.
2016 - Annie Power came in and made a mockery of the standard by beating MTOY again
2017 - Buveur D'air wins beating MTOY, Footpad, Petit Mouchoir
2018 - Buveur D'air wins beating Melon and an over the hill Faugheen


I mean, I understand why people are crabbing BVD and it not being a strong division, but this hasn't been a strong division in 10 years has it? When it's been competitive, we've had no superstar?!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Because the majority of 'stars' seem to go chasing. I agree with Innoko about being in favour of Laurina & Samcro giving the Champion Hurdle a shot.

 

[Quevega]

Out of interest, when did we last have a strong renewal?

2009 - Punjabi won at 22/1 and the fav was Binocular who was 2nd in the Supreme the year before
2010 - Binocular 'bounced back and the fav was Go Native who came nowhere
2011 - Hurricane Fly beat Peddlers Cross and Oscar WHiskey and Thousand Stars next two who both needed further
2012 - Rock On Ruby won, Hurricane Fly 4/6f disappointing in 3rd with Binocular back for more...
2013 - Hurricane Fly bounced back reversed the form with Rock On Ruby
2014 - Jezki 1 MTOY 2 TNO 3 HF 4 - strongest so far but HF clearly not at his best that day?
2015 - Faugheen led home the Mullins 1-2-3 but CLEARLY was a cut above HF by this point, not competitive.
2016 - Annie Power came in and made a mockery of the standard by beating MTOY again
2017 - Buveur D'air wins beating MTOY, Footpad, Petit Mouchoir
2018 - Buveur D'air wins beating Melon and an over the hill Faugheen


I mean, I understand why people are crabbing BVD and it not being a strong division, but this hasn't been a strong division in 10 years has it? When it's been competitive, we've had no superstar?!

You could do a similar summary based on the ratings of horses in the champion hurdle, and it'll show that B Dair's wins had fewer rated over 160 (and the ones that were over 160 were a bit ropey), but I've not got inclination/time at minute, but I did it recently and they are below average based on this method.
Jezki's was the best by far like you've established.

But what does your gut say Kev,?

 

[Kevloaf]

You could do a similar summary based on the ratings of horses in the champion hurdle, and it'll show that B Dair's wins had fewer rated over 160 (and the ones that were over 160 were a bit ropey), but I've not got inclination/time at minute, but I did it recently and they are below average based on this method.
Jezki's was the best by far like you've established.

But what does your gut say Kev,?

I don't think Punjabi, Binocular, Rock On Ruby or even Jezki are a cut above Buveur D'air - I think he'd have been able to win their renewals and I imagine some of them wouild have won his (hypothetically speaking)

Lucky to have Hurricane Fly then Faugheen to light up the divison and BVD isn't either of them, but he's as good as the rest wouldn't you say?

 

[Quevega]

You could do a similar summary based on the ratings of horses in the champion hurdle, and it'll show that B Dair's wins had fewer rated over 160 (and the ones that were over 160 were a bit ropey), but I've not got inclination/time at minute, but I did it recently and they are below average based on this method.
Jezki's was the best by far like you've established.

But what does your gut say Kev,?

Done it (horses rated 160+ in same champion hurdles)
Punjabi - 8
Binocular - 9
Fly - 8
Rock on Ruby - 8 (including 2 170+)
Fly - 5 (inc 2 170+)
Jezki - 6 (inc 1 170+)
Faugheen - 4
Annie - 5
Buv - 4 (inc Brain Power & Petit Mouchoir IMO Ropey)
Buv - 5

Obviously some other ropey ratings amongst the earlier races but I think it's pretty conclusive myself.

 

[Quevega]

Faugheen may have been overrated also

 

[Kevloaf]

Done it (horses rated 160+ in same champion hurdles)
Punjabi - 8
Binocular - 9
Fly - 8
Rock on Ruby - 8 (including 2 170+)
Fly - 5 (inc 2 170+)
Jezki - 6 (inc 1 170+)
Faugheen - 4
Annie - 5
Buv - 4 (inc Brain Power & Petit Mouchoir IMO Ropey)
Buv - 5

Obviously some other ropey ratings amongst the earlier races but I think it's pretty conclusive myself.

Faugheen may have been overrated also

I don't know what you are telling me is conclusive in that case?

Faugheen and Hurricane Fly are the two best Champion Hurdle horses in the last 10 years? I don't think anybody would debate that, comparing which years they beat 160 hurdlers only takes you so far...

I'd go back to, Buveur D'air I wouldn't say deserves to be in a league below Punjabi, Binocular, Rock On Ruby or Jezki. You could argue they're better sure, I'd agree with some, but the divison is no weaker for the last 2 years than it was in those years?



I suppose, Buveur D'air has only been able to beat whats been put infront of him, he's unbeaten in two open 2 mile hurdle campaigns, this year we'll get to see him post a higher figure than he ever has before IMO (because of Samcro's inflated rating)