Champion Hurdle 2019

[jono]

It's such a trappy race. I'm a huge Buveur D'Air fan but he's vulnerable now. I'm of the view they just took that race for granted, didn't feel they had to do too much with the horse after everything was geared towards Samcro and Summervile Boy at Newcastle. But the Kempton defeat means going in at a short price is risky.

The one thing I would say is the "only needs to find a neck" that Melon needs to find with Buveur D'Air - it's now known that he wasn't quite right last March so a 100% Buveur D'Air, it'll likely be a bigger margin needed. BUT Mullins thinks "there are a couple of different reasons to think he is a little bit better than his champion hurdle run" so you could use that in favour of Melon too and perhaps he too was below form? (Personally I thought Melon had the perfect run of the race, it was set up for him yet he still couldn't win)

A race full of in and out form lines, reasons why this horse and that horse were below par / could improve and a horse who on all known form doesn't deserve to be anywhere near second favourite yet could well line up with Ruby onboard having a single 2 runner race in open company

 

[Kevloaf]

Melon will probably lose another race prior to the festival so could end up with a better price yet and just like last season the gamble will take place on the day for him all the while with the focus on Laurina.

Yeah, I think that's my hope

10/1 is value as it is. 13.5 on the exchange. I think the price can drift a few more points. 16/1 would be a great bet.

I don't quite agree at 10/1, however more down to other spots in the race - this time in a month, I may feel differently.

I think you've said it before too, you're hoping for a loss and a drift...

 

[boopa]

Supasundae would be interesting if it was soft.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

It's such a trappy race. I'm a huge Buveur D'Air fan but he's vulnerable now. I'm of the view they just took that race for granted, didn't feel they had to do too much with the horse after everything was geared towards Samcro and Summervile Boy at Newcastle. But the Kempton defeat means going in at a short price is risky.

The one thing I would say is the "only needs to find a neck" that Melon needs to find with Buveur D'Air - it's now known that he wasn't quite right last March so a 100% Buveur D'Air, it'll likely be a bigger margin needed. BUT Mullins thinks "there are a couple of different reasons to think he is a little bit better than his champion hurdle run" so you could use that in favour of Melon too and perhaps he too was below form? (Personally I thought Melon had the perfect run of the race, it was set up for him yet he still couldn't win)

A race full of in and out form lines, reasons why this horse and that horse were below par / could improve and a horse who on all known form doesn't deserve to be anywhere near second favourite yet could well line up with Ruby onboard having a single 2 runner race in open company

I'm not sure if I buy the Buveur D'air excuses last season tbh, same with Melon too.

The only horse that run in both of BD's CH wins was Wicklow Brave, and of course it would take a very brave man to draw exact conclusions from winning distances, but the first race WB was 14 1/2 lengths behind in the first of them races and then 23 lengths last season, concluding that the 2nd of them was a stronger performance, but again, a pinch of salt taken with that, but it's all we have to go on with form lines and distances between the 2 of the races.

Also you note Melon having the run of the race but both WPM and NH put in a pacemaker, Faugheen & Charli Parcs respectively, for their main hopes to aim at so I don't think it was any more beneficial to Melon as it was Buveur D'air tbh.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Melon still 10/1 is the one now for me, don't know if that is too small for you for an each way play.

I’m not really a Melon fan tbh. I’ve never taken to the horse. Think he’s a decent yardstick to beat but I’d rather take my chances on something else at a bigger price. Just not really sure what horse that is yet.

 

[boopa]

Just had my first bets in the race. Saldier 65/1. Espoir D'Allen 48/1.

 

[Outlaw]

Just had my first bets in the race. Saldier 65/1. Espoir D'Allen 48/1.

Could be wrong but think Espoir swerving chelt this year and then next year he is being campaigned properly with a view to a tilt at a CH , be interesting if he rocked up for an Irish CH this year thou

 

[boopa]

Yeah just a few small bets in case they are tempted.

 

[Outlaw]

It would be nice to see him in open company this year given the open nature of the division or lack of depth whichever people prefer

 

[Viking Flagship]

Yep it’s Supasundae for me of those at bigger prices. I’m on Laurina and Melon win only at reasonable prices and added Supasundae EW after the race at Christmas. I think that will be me done in this race to be honest.

Edit: sorry this was supposed to quote the earlier mention of Supasundae

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Cheers lads

I’ve just gone through the race from scratch (I’ll be doing that for all the races this week before back off to uni next Monday). I’ve come out of it thinking Supasundae is a solid each way bet. 14s NRNB. Consistent, speedy, excellent Cheltenham record, stays up the hill and very very rarely runs a bad race.

Supasundae 14/1 e/w NRNB

 

[Innoko]

My only thoughts on SS are, is he likely to win? Probably not. Is he likely to be a shorter price on the day? Probably not.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

My only thoughts on SS are, is he likely to win? Probably not. Is he likely to be a shorter price on the day? Probably not.

The latter part of your post is an interesting one. I expect him to be shorter on the day but not by loads. But with it being NRNB and with Bet365 so the cash out option available, taking the price now seemed sensible. And of course if BD gets injured before the festival, the whole field shorten. So the 14s would evaporate.

I expect it to be a field of about 9-12 runners with Laurina in the Mares. So I’d predict my fella goes off 8/1. The 14s each way 3 places at a quarter of the odds is a solid bet I believe.

 

[Innoko]

Sounds like a solid argument to me

 

[Scooby91]

Cheers lads

I’ve just gone through the race from scratch (I’ll be doing that for all the races this week before back off to uni next Monday). I’ve come out of it thinking Supasundae is a solid each way bet. 14s NRNB. Consistent, speedy, excellent Cheltenham record, stays up the hill and very very rarely runs a bad race.

Supasundae 14/1 e/w NRNB

Speedy?

Last run

chased leader, 2nd halfway, pushed along in 3rd after 2 out*

mid-division, pushed along in moderate 5th 4 out, ridden after 3 out, moderate 4th entering straight, went 2nd 2 out, no impression*

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Speedy?

Last run

chased leader, 2nd halfway, pushed along in 3rd after 2 out*

mid-division, pushed along in moderate 5th 4 out, ridden after 3 out, moderate 4th entering straight, went 2nd 2 out, no impression*

Speedy enough to run. For a horse that ran in the stayers last year, he’s still got the pace for this.

The stiff finish at Cheltenham suits him and his ability to stay further will be a big positive against 2 milers finishing up the hill.

 

[Scooby91]

Speedy enough to run. For a horse that ran in the stayers last year, he’s still got the pace for this.

The stiff finish at Cheltenham suits him and his ability to stay further will be a big positive against 2 milers finishing up the hill.

I don't think he'll run in this tbh. I make him a 4/1 shot to win the stayers, however I'll be ending up stuck with him here if it came up dour ground, and In that scenario he'd have some sort of chance of being involved. And sharjah for 1 wouldn't be running

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I don't think he'll run in this tbh. I make him a 4/1 shot to win the stayers, however I'll be ending up stuck with him here if it came up dour ground, and In that scenario he'd have some sort of chance of being involved. And sharjah for 1 wouldn't be running

If he doesn’t run, there’s no harm done with NRNB.

If it’s soft ground for the stayers, I don’t think he’d see the trip out well enough personally. Last years race was a farce ran at the crawling speed before the sprint finishing which actually probably suited Supasundae but he won’t get a slow paced Stayers Hurdle again. A proper stayers hurdle where they go a gallop over 3m won’t suit him with the stiff finish imo.

I do like him though. Just for the CH instead.

 

[boopa]

Supasundae is hard to place at Cheltenham because his best trip is intermediate. I think his best chance of winning would be a good to soft stayers. The last run wasn't run to suit, couldn't be too harsh on him for that. A strongly run 2m on soft would give him a squeak.

Kate Harrington gave the impression this would be his target. I think BVD's defeat will tempt people to have a crack.

 

[jack1092]

Last time out was a probably a poorish ride + the race wasn't run to suit. over 2 miles at Cheltenham with a fast pace i'd hope he'd be in contention.

I'd also be shocked if he isn't shorter than 14/16s on the day- Laurina takes a good bit of the market up, she might not show up, Verdana Blue won't get her ideal going. Melon will probably shorten up based on last year's run, provided he doesn't bomb in February.