Champion Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

Dependant on her not flopping and running to her potential this year, I can see Laurina going for the Mares but only if

A) Benie des Dieux gets an injury
B) BdD goes for another race (hugely unlikely imo)
c) Apples Jade is right back to top form and beats BdD well in the build up to Cheltenham

You could perhaps have option d) Melon proves to be a clear CH number 1 for the stable?

 

[Quevega]

I think people still get WP Mullins wrong. He has evolved a little.
If he thinks Laurina is good enough to go close in a champion hurdle after what she does in her prep races this year then she'll run there.
The only reason he wouldn't is if he trained Buveur D'air or Samcro, and they were fit and declared. Even then he might run her, if he has other options fit and available for the mares at the same declarations stage.
He has so much ammunition for most of the big races that plans will always be fluid, especially as he believes horses are trip versatile (on the whole)

 

[archie]

Anyone see anything that could win the Greatwood and become a Champopn Hurdle contender?

Irish entries closed yesterday and weights announced on 8th November. Hoping that Shanning will get a fair mark.

 

[jack1092]

Jono, I could see your option c) playing out; While it was quite superb that BDD could win the mares hurdle on her first run over hurdles for the yard, i don't think she's to AJ's level over hurdles. Elliot has been quite bullish about her this year so far, and he can be quite honest when his horses aren't firing and has been in the past even solely with her.

Whilst Mullins and co suggest BDD is the mare version of Douvan, she wouldn't have shown that over hurdles. I do think they'd need to go back over fences to get to that level as her jumping is such an asset. However, will they do that considering she clearly injures herself? Who knows.

There is also a question mark on BDD on spring ground, she never faced lets say g/s or good, and didn't do so in France, other than on debut..

I can see Laurina going to the Mares in all likelihood, but it will be very interesting to see how they campaign her early doors.

 

[Kevloaf]

Jono, I could see your option c) playing out; While it was quite superb that BDD could win the mares hurdle on her first run over hurdles for the yard, i don't think she's to AJ's level over hurdles. Elliot has been quite bullish about her this year so far, and he can be quite honest when his horses aren't firing and has been in the past even solely with her.

Whilst Mullins and co suggest BDD is the mare version of Douvan, she wouldn't have shown that over hurdles. I do think they'd need to go back over fences to get to that level as her jumping is such an asset. However, will they do that considering she clearly injures herself? Who knows.

There is also a question mark on BDD on spring ground, she never faced lets say g/s or good, and didn't do so in France, other than on debut..

I can see Laurina going to the Mares in all likelihood, but it will be very interesting to see how they campaign her early doors.

If BDD does go back over fences and looks a major Ryanair contender, she'd STILL have an 'easier' race up against Apples Jade than the likely contenders in a Ryanair .... she'd need to be absolutely different class over a fence to go for the more difficult target on paper.

But none of that factors in Laurina

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Willie suggesting again today Laurina will be aimed at the Champion Hurdle; Tuesday is always the way day to visit anyway but this year’s could be one night to be missed

 

[Kevloaf]

Willie suggesting again today Laurina will be aimed at the Champion Hurdle; Tuesday is always the way day to visit anyway but this year’s could be one night to be missed

All we need to do is work out if she'll be starting at 3.30pm or 4.10pm!

I hope she's good enough to be Ruby's pick for the race. On a line through Melon they'll be able to have a read on Buveur D'air and you'd imagine Samcro by the time we get to March.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting that despite WPM's words about Laurina it is the Mares where the money is coming for her. Almost double matched on her since last Friday, as opposed to hardly anything for this race!

 

[thistlecracker]

Interesting that despite WPM's words about Laurina it is the Mares where the money is coming for her. Almost double matched on her since last Friday, as opposed to hardly anything for this race!

After saying the CH will be the target, the quote I read finished with if it doesn’t go to plan then we will be going to the mares

 

[charlie]

Interesting that despite WPM's words about Laurina it is the Mares where the money is coming for her. Almost double matched on her since last Friday, as opposed to hardly anything for this race!

I would assume that's fairly shrewd money as well. Who else is going to go directly against what WPM says 5 months away from Cheltenham. I think punters are generally wiser when it comes to interpreting WPM and how he campaigns horses. He loses absolutely nothing in the eyes of connections and punters saying now that the CH is the plan. It's ambitious and she may prove in the coming months that she is a genuine CH contender, or she may not. One thing we do know is Willie will place his horses in the races they are most likely to win and what can be said now, which is maybe why money has come, is Laurina would obviously stand a far greater chance of winning the mares. I still want to see her in the arkle

 

[archie]

Rather than 'smart' money, I'd suggest that it's 'too clever by half' money. Anyone playing Mullins Bingo in October is playing with a fiery furnace.
Willie says that the current plan is CH for Laurina and Mares for Benie Des Dieux so that is the current plan.

 

[Quevega]

Rather than 'smart' money, I'd suggest that it's 'too clever by half' money. Anyone playing Mullins Bingo in October is playing with a fiery furnace.
Willie says that the current plan is CH for Laurina and Mares for Benie Des Dieux so that is the current plan.

absolutely, it's completely natural that if Laurina doesn.t come up to scratch in open company against the boys she may go for the mares.
He's not trying to kid everyone on.
It's only smart money if the ones backing Laurina for the mares believe she won't be as good as they think so are backing there opinion.

 

[charlie]

Rather than 'smart' money, I'd suggest that it's 'too clever by half' money. Anyone playing Mullins Bingo in October is playing with a fiery furnace.
Willie says that the current plan is CH for Laurina and Mares for Benie Des Dieux so that is the current plan.

Taking a 'current' plan from WPM at this stage of the season is the purest form of bingo going! She will have to prove herself and some in open company to be CH bound and if you think she won't then she ends up in the much more winnable mares, hence the money.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Taking a 'current' plan from WPM at this stage of the season is the purest form of bingo going! She will have to prove herself and some in open company to be CH bound and if you think she won't then she ends up in the much more winnable mares, hence the money.

Agree. Too many scenarios for Laurina to end up in the Mares that I'd be happy to leave her unbacked for this until they do not play out. Unless she beats Samcro before the festival she will always be a backable e/way price IMO for this race at the festival.

 

[jono]

Agree. Too many scenarios for Laurina to end up in the Mares that I'd be happy to leave her unbacked for this until they do not play out. Unless she beats Samcro before the festival she will always be a backable e/way price IMO for this race at the festival.

Agree with this. I can see them pitching Melon in against Samcro in the Irish trials this side of Christmas (Morgiana and Ryanair) and then come the Dublin festival, having seen where Samcro and Melon lie stack up against eachother pitching Laurina in if she has proved up to the tests by that point. Can't see Laurina ever getting below 4/1 until then myself however impressive

 

[Quevega]

Laurina probably go Coral hurdle at ascot he's said, a
and wouldn't be surprised if she goes 2m 4f dornan race on new years day cheltenham either.
I'm not sure she'll go up against samcro and others till cheltenham.
If she avoids them and wins her races impressively then I think she will shorten, especially if samcro beats all the other irish challengers easily, he'll get very short and buvuer and laurina will be vying for 2nd favs
a lot of shit to happen though yet.

 

[jono]

Laurina probably go Coral hurdle at ascot he's said, a
and wouldn't be surprised if she goes 2m 4f dornan race on new years day cheltenham either.
I'm not sure she'll go up against samcro and others till cheltenham.
If she avoids them and wins her races impressively then I think she will shorten, especially if samcro beats all the other irish challengers easily, he'll get very short and buvuer and laurina will be vying for 2nd favs
a lot of shit to happen though yet.

Yeah the Ascot race looks to be her likely starting point. They could swerve a Samcro showdown until the festival but with €84,000 up for grabs for winning the Irish Champion at the Dublin Festival in February...if Laurina is looking like the superstar mare connections are implying i'd be shocked if they let Elliott have that towards the trainers title with Samcro

 

[Quevega]

Yeah the Ascot race looks to be her likely starting point. They could swerve a Samcro showdown until the festival but with €84,000 up for grabs for winning the Irish Champion at the Dublin Festival in February...if Laurina is looking like the superstar mare connections are implying i'd be shocked if they let Elliott have that towards the trainers title with Samcro

I'd love them to race before cheltenham, I personally hope Samcro ducks Laurina though.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah the Ascot race looks to be her likely starting point. They could swerve a Samcro showdown until the festival but with €84,000 up for grabs for winning the Irish Champion at the Dublin Festival in February...if Laurina is looking like the superstar mare connections are implying i'd be shocked if they let Elliott have that towards the trainers title with Samcro

They might if they think she would beat him at Cheltenham and then win the Punchestown Champion Hurdle which is worth twice as much - 1st €162,250.

Melon a good 2nd to Samcro at the Dublin Racing Festival would not be that bad in that case...

She needs to be THAT good though

 

[jono]

They might if they think she would beat him at Cheltenham and then win the Punchestown Champion Hurdle which is worth twice as much - 1st €162,250.

Melon a good 2nd to Samcro at the Dublin Racing Festival would not be that bad in that case...

She needs to be THAT good though

To be fair they do like giving Gordon a head start...:highly_amused:

I think they'll know if she is good enough by then and the owners seem up for the challenge. For me, if she didn't line up in the Dublin race i'd actually have doubts she'd be running at 3:30 on that Tuesday