Champion Hurdle 2018

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.

For clarity... My comment about being on a different planet was purely about the fact you said "Labaik was the best work horse for Gordon Elliott." There are SO MANY things wrong with that theory that I didn't bother with it at the time.

 

[Bigfish]

You are very passive aggressive Kevloaf.

 

[Kevloaf]

I read that raceform from a far and distant place Kev. I was so nearly right.

You are very passive aggressive Kevloaf.

:very_drunk: By debating a point that you brought up, quoted and directed to me?

If that is passive aggressive, I'll take your comment as directly aggressive

 

[Bigfish]

I'm far too old and wise. I don't get this use of smiley face wink after a passing remark. Of course I made reference to your comment , you said it. Look , I only reposted it as I remembered that you thought that I was in cloud cuckoo land if Melon would trouble Buveur Dair. I was nearly right . I think that neither of them ran up to their best on the day. The rating for Buveur Dair 168 , best 171. For Melon , 167.5 , best and a projected future rating of 172 potentially. Melon will be their Arkle hope next year though I reckon.

 

[Kevloaf]

I thought you were in cuckoo land because you said that you believed the form of the Supreme was good enough to win a champion hurdle based on Labaik's work.

That's it ... it was just that comment I disagree with.

The smiley faces are to help with the tone... I'm not trying to be rude, which I would have hoped goes without saying.

I'd like to see Melon in the Arkle however do remember Mullins saying they bought him to be a champion hurdler so it might be unlikely. You never know

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought you were in cuckoo land because you said that you believed the form of the Supreme was good enough to win a champion hurdle based on Labaik's work.

That's it ... it was just that comment I disagree with.

The smiley faces are to help with the tone... I'm not trying to be rude, which I would have hoped goes without saying.

I'd like to see Melon in the Arkle however do remember Mullins saying they bought him to be a champion hurdler so it might be unlikely. You never know

This is what I can't get out of my head.

All along Willie has said he is a future Champion Hurdle contender, and yes, he certainly was that this season, so I don't see any reason why they would pass up him improving yet again and potentially winning it next season, to go for a novice chase, albeit a good one, but still, it makes no sense to me.

The only time I looked at Melon physically and thought 'now he looks a race horse' was in the Champion Hurdle this season, every other time he has looked 'gangly' and still very undeveloped, but maybe that is just how I perceive a horse.

 

[Bigfish]

This is what I can't get out of my head.

All along Willie has said he is a future Champion Hurdle contender, and yes, he certainly was that this season, so I don't see any reason why they would pass up him improving yet again and potentially winning it next season, to go for a novice chase, albeit a good one, but still, it makes no sense to me.

The only time I looked at Melon physically and thought 'now he looks a race horse' was in the Champion Hurdle this season, every other time he has looked 'gangly' and still very undeveloped, but maybe that is just how I perceive a horse.

My memory isn't what it was and slowing up a bit lately but I'm sure that I heard an interview on ATR with W Mullins after Footpads impressive novice chase debuts and subsequent performances early in the season last year when he said something along the line that ' we thought Melon would be our Arkle horse for this year but Footpad has put paid to any consideration of that'. Maybe it was another horse he said but that 's my recollection.

 

[Montjeu]

Your memory hasn't deserted you completely Bigfish, I too can remember Mullins referencing Melon as an Arkle horse at some stage, of that I'm certain.

But we all know Willie, plans can change overnight never mind over the course of a season. Melon's effort in the Champion this year must be giving them some serious second thoughts about going chasing. I for one would love to see Laurina go for the Arkle, and Shattered Love's JLT success this year might tempt them, but it would go against the latest trends.

 

[archie]

When I did a stable visit at the end of September, Melon was absolutely on the Champion Hurdle road and this was essentially confirmed when he won in Down Royal in early November. Had he lost that day they might have reconsidered.
I'd have thought that the Arkle musings would have been after he lost at Punchestown at the end of last season.

 

[Montjeu]

When I did a stable visit at the end of September, Melon was absolutely on the Champion Hurdle road and this was essentially confirmed when he won in Down Royal in early November. Had he lost that day they might have reconsidered.
I'd have thought that the Arkle musings would have been after he lost at Punchestown at the end of last season.

Yes you're correct, I believe the plan was to go chasing with Melon immediately after his novice hurdling campaign, but after assessing his progress over the summer they concluded that he could do with another year to gain experience and growth to fill out that lanky frame. I think he looks every inch a chaser now with that extra year under his belt, but they must be sorely tempted to go for the Champion again.

Unless they just pack her off to the mares, which would be a crying shame, between Laurina and Melon they have two horses that could conceivably go off very short prices in the Arkle and the Champion.

 

[Bigfish]

That's how I see it Montjeu. I think that Laurina will be considered good enough to go for the Champion Hurdle next year...they eventually did the right thing with Annie Power after all. Melon is their Arkle horse ... I hope . Of course I will perm my top 2/3 horses for each race that they could possibly be aimed at. Early days but it can pay off very nicely sometimes.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yes you're correct, I believe the plan was to go chasing with Melon immediately after his novice hurdling campaign, but after assessing his progress over the summer they concluded that he could do with another year to gain experience and growth to fill out that lanky frame. I think he looks every inch a chaser now with that extra year under his belt, but they must be sorely tempted to go for the Champion again.

Unless they just pack her off to the mares, which would be a crying shame, between Laurina and Melon they have two horses that could conceivably go off very short prices in the Arkle and the Champion.

The problem you've got is as a betting prospect... Melon OR Laurina could fit your statement for BOTH races... "between Laurina and Melon they have two horses that could conceivably go off very short prices in the Arkle and the Champion.

One looks more likely than the other but it just HAS to be too early to be backing Mullins' horses when the decision will 100% not yet have been made.

Option 1
Mullins has said Laurina looks like a chaser.
He already has Melon who was a close 2nd in the CH and could well improve naturally and you could argue Ruby would improve him a few lbs.

OR

Option 2
Mullins reverts to type and brings back a mare thats been chasing to a hurdle race for the festival (like with VVM) AND considers the fact he won it with Annie Power so feels it can be done.
Melon goes novice chasing (as the extra season with Footpad worked) and agree's with plenty that visually he looks like a chaser

Option 3
Despite Laurina looking like she'd win a CH, he takes the easy route and wins the mares hurdle, as it is a grade 1 at the festival and counts for exactly the same in the record books.
Melon could go either way in that scenario...

The fact is, we don't, Willie doesn't, so nobody has a clue what the plan is for next season yet... the bookies haven't priced it up wrong, neither of these horses are backable prices in the CH market at 8/1 and 14/1.

Personally I'd 100% rather have Laurina at 14/1 in the book but would think she's least likely to come here... but it is fairly easy to pass both over for now.

This time two years ago, Limini had won the Mares Novice and went off 11/10 to beat Buveur D'air and Petit Mouchoir at Aintree....

I wouldn't say the vibes about Laurina are any stronger than they were about Limini two years ago, albeit they're similar. I expect Laurina to be better but I just can't see her as a betting prospect yet. Buveur D'air would have won the Mares Novice hurdle this year if he'd been allowed in it, so despite her being visually impressive, we really have no substance to her form yet.

 

[Montjeu]

"The problem you've got is as a betting prospect... Melon OR Laurina could fit your statement for BOTH races..."

That is my point exactly Kev, between the two of them, both could go off short prices in EITHER race. I didn't specify which would run in which.

Thats why I am exuding uncertainty about backing Melon for the Arkle, 1) because he is entitled to another shot at the Champion and 2) Laurina could just as easily make into an Arkle horse.... Or the other way around.

Far too early for Mullins bingo, but once the rumour mill starts grinding you won't see 25/1 for Laurina for example.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I was agreeing with you :encouragement:

What would your choice be personally? I'd love LAurina to go chasing. We don't have any top class chasing mares that I can think of.... I can't actually think of any better than Vroum Vroum Mag that I've been lucky enough to see!

 

[Montjeu]

Agree completely, I think she has Arkle written all over her. Physically speaking she is an absolute monster, and in answer to one of your earlier points, I can assure you she is held in higher regard than Limini was.

Everyone loves a good mare, and a great, big, chasing mare like her would be great for the racing public to get behind.

 

[Kevloaf]

Agree completely, I think she has Arkle written all over her. Physically speaking she is an absolute monster, and in answer to one of your earlier points, I can assure you she is held in higher regard than Limini was.

Everyone loves a good mare, and a great, big, chasing mare like her would be great for the racing public to get behind.

Can you divulge where from?

I only can go off what I remember being said before both their Cheltenham runs. I know that Limini was considered THE banker, however that is relative to the year/opposition/other stable runners that season... so obviously Laurina could easily be considered a much better horse regardless. It does obviously look that way now too, but I haven't heard connections say it.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Ricci said that they thought Laurina was untouchable

I remember David Jennings saying Laurina would be the shortest priced favourite of the festival so the other vibes must have been strong

 

[Kevloaf]

Ricci said that they thought Laurina was untouchable

I remember David Jennings saying Laurina would be the shortest priced favourite of the festival so the other vibes must have been strong

Salsaretta was his one to follow at one stage :highly_amused:

David Jennings doesn't take much to get excited either... or much encouragement to say something for a quotable line. The amount of "absolute good things" he must have backed I'm surprised he can afford hair gel. (I actually quite like him haha)

I wouldn't hold either's comments as proof they thought more of her than Limini at the time... all I am saying is before I get hugely carried away, I want to see her win an open grade 1.

Buveur D'air would have beaten everything Laurina has beaten so far too :highly_amused:

 

[Montjeu]

Only from indirect sources Kev, but she was the stable banker from a long way out. It was a friend of a friend who actually broke the horse, and I know he had a sizeable amount on at 33/1.

Sadly I was out of the loop until after the fact. :sorrow:

re- Buveur D'air, of course he would have but thats not really a fair comparison. A better question is do you think Laurina would have finished closer to Altior then he did in the 2016 Supreme? Scary to think she has just turned 5, that is a lot of scope.

 

[Kevloaf]

Only from indirect sources Kev, but she was the stable banker from a long way out. It was a friend of a friend who actually broke the horse, and I know he had a sizeable amount on at 33/1.

Sadly I was out of the loop until after the fact. :sorrow:

re- Buveur D'air, of course he would have but thats not really a fair comparison. A better question is do you think Laurina would have finished closer to Altior then he did in the 2016 Supreme? Scary to think she has just turned 5, that is a lot of scope.

33/1 would have been nice, when Ricci was telling anyone that would listen Salsaretta is the mare in the yard to follow!

I know it isn't a fair comparison but it does give some scope to the magnitude of the task she is facing.
I think BVD improved an incredible amount from his Supreme run to his CH win... so even if I thought she'd have gotten closer to Altior, that still isn't really fair either?

The problem we will have is that the form is relative to each novice season, so it is really tough to compare one novice to another in a different year.

Hopefully we start hearing some really bullish comparisons compared to other mares (Annie Power in particular). I think her age might mean we actually see her go chasing which would be superb.