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Champion Hurdle 2018
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
Yeah.
"He did very well last season, winning six times and had his biggest day at Cheltenham when winning the Allbert Bartlett. He met with a setback when we were preparing for for Royal Ascot and we're hoping to have him ready for a spring campaign over hurdles"
Hurricane fly
Fat Jockey Patreon Est. March 2022
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While true the “unbeatable” was a quote from the day before the race which is surely a better time to compare how highly regarded the horses are than what they think in june?
Purely playing devil's advocate (because I agree with everything you're saying)...
Ricci saying that the stable think a horse he doesn't own is untouchable is relative to the race she's running in and what they thought she was up against.
I remember vividly that Ruby was adament Limini was his banker of the week two years ago. Both were right.
Limini had been a strong fancy ALL season, Laurina "came from nowhere" in the sense she wasn't even being talked about in the stable tour in November... Limini absolutely was.
The fullness of time will most likely show Laurina is a better horse than Limini...... going IN to Cheltenham, they had the exact same rating having won the same race.
At the moment, they're comparable.... and I don't think you can use "stable vibes" as a reason to assume Laurina will be better than Limini. I think that is more recency bias. Limini was incredibly well thought of this time two years ago, and went off fav to win at Aintree against the boys. Especially Petit Mouchoir who was still in the same stable at the time.
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Hurricane fly
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Is part of that not because Limini has run and won at Punchestown in the May beforehand whereas Laurina debuted in December?
I’d think Laurina is better than Limini because of the style of her win, Maria’s Benefit was very highly thought of this side of the water, Cap soliel was also a top bumper horse last year. I don’t personally remember anyone in Liminis race being highly thought off on that level? Limini won by 4 lengths compared to Laurinas 18. Laurinas win personally reminded me of Apples Jade victory at aintree.
I’d think Laurina is better than Limini because of the style of her win, Maria’s Benefit was very highly thought of this side of the water, Cap soliel was also a top bumper horse last year. I don’t personally remember anyone in Liminis race being highly thought off on that level? Limini won by 4 lengths compared to Laurinas 18. Laurinas win personally reminded me of Apples Jade victory at aintree.
Probably....but it is all relative. Maria's Benefit was opnly highly thought of against mares.... no-one would have fancied her in a Supreme.
Actually, Bloody Mary was well thought of for JP / Hendo... and I think I remember "Smart Talk" being tipped up each way.... Dusky Legend was second and has some decent 'black type' form since ... but I Wouldn't say it was a strong race. Then again, I don't think this years will be either in "open" company.
I am dragging this out too much.... Laurina I think will be better than Limini :highly_amused:
I'm of the view Buveur D'Air is a good few pound better than the rest and it was just the mud that stopped him winning more impressively at Cheltenham, and if Hendo sends him to Aintree he will go with a favourites chance.
BD appears to be one of those horses people crab the form but he's won every every race he's entered bar 2 bumpers, and we know Hendo doesn't like bumpers, and the hottest Supreme in history....
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Not just Limini Kev, she'll be up there with the likes of Annie Power & Apples Jade.
I said it before her second run and got doubted, admittedly I was a little over keen based on one run so can 100% see why them doubts were there but she's run her races now, she's no secret, she's a little star.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Finally able to get some time to start watching back the festival races. First up the Champion Hurdle...
So Buveur D'air made it 2 in a row, as the odds and many of us expected. Though I have to say it was closer than I expected and certainly didn't see Melon push him that close!
The Winner
On the face of it you could say to only win by a neck, Buveur D'Air was slightly disappointing. He gave me a nervy watch up the run in but I think we saw a slightly below par horse on the day. Plenty was said on his preparation for the race or lack of one! And I think that certainly counted against him. My only slight worry coming into the race for him was this build up and whether he would be up for a fight if the race boiled down to one having had such an easy time of it throughout the season. Melon made sure that happened though and luckily (for me) he showed plenty of determination and guts to win. Although the ground wasn't seen to be a negative for him, I also felt his jumping wasn't quite as slick as it had been, whether the ground was a reason for that? Importantly though having watched the race back a few times today Barry seemed to have more faith in the horse and held back from using the whip until 1/2 furlong out (far later to when Melon was asked for maximum effort) and it was at that point that he started to get infront. It's also worth noting that of the horses that raced at the front for much of the race with Buveur D'Air, Charli Parcs fell way back through the field, Faugheen finished 20+ lengths back in 6th and Identity Thief 12 lengths back in 4th. Where as Melon and Mick Jazz were able to creep through the race and make their challenge closer to home. So I feel Buveur D'Air had more in hand than the winning distance would suggest.
Disappointments
The end result, and watching the race back, there aren't actually many that I can highlight here. Faugheen and Yorkhill could come into this as I would have expected at least a better run from both (it was clear Faugheen was in trouble from 3 out and Mick Jazz overturned a 4.75L deficit to beat Faugheen 18L) and Yorkhill was miles behind the whole field before being Pulled Up. That said I didn't fancy either to have a serious chance of winning so not a major disappointment at all. The remainder of the field was much of a muchness.
Eyecatchers
Identity Thief outran his odds to get 4th but just picked up the pieces. Mick Jazz continued his steady progression in the division with every race this year (Ratings of 144 147 150 155 156 and now rated 161). But you have to feel for all he keeps improving, he'll always be below the top level and is one horse certainly benefitting from the lack of competition in the division. The only, and obvious horses to note here is Melon. The money came for the horse before the off when he went off 7/1 (18/1 in the morning). He travelled through the race perfectly (wasn't helped 3 out either) and jumped the last upsides the winner and jumped it better but was reeled in to lose by a neck. I have to admit to getting this horse wrong. I hadn't really been impressed by any of his runs through the winter and having doubted the Supreme form of 2017 even if you took a favourable look on it being only his 2nd ever run - i was more than happy to pass him over. In hindsight though, the hood went against him at Leopardstown and pulling so hard and giving weight to MTOY's meant he had excuses in those runs. The pace and nature of the Champion Hurdle was suggested to suit and here's no doubt he improved for a career best here.
My Bets - 15pts Staked
8pts Buveur D'Air 4/1
5pts Faugheen 4/1 NRNB
2pts Yorkhill 6/1 ANY RACE
40pt Return, 25pt Profit
It was a case of the good, the bad and the ugly for me in this race! Buveur D'Air turned out a lovely bet going off at 4/6Fav. That ensured I came out the race with a +25pts profit. Faugheen like a few posters on here was backed in October before his reappearance which looked a smashing bet with the NRNB concession. Though he ended up going off at the same price at SP, he was bigger for much of the season and by the time the race went off I did not fancy him at all and certainly wouldn't have touched him in the race. This applies even more on Yorkhill. Although aware the CH was an option my hopes were on him being a Gold Cup horse, if not knocking back to the Ryanair. Even then I felt like the 6/1 would have been value if he did line up in the CH but he went off 14/1, in absolutely no form whatsoever and overlooked by not just Ruby Walsh but also Paul Townend. (it took about 24 hours for a jockey to even be assigned to him so it looks like no one wanted the ride on him :highly_amused
So once again a bet that when the race went off, I wish hadn't been placed.
Despite those bets though the 25pt return was the second best race result for me (singles only) and a stack of multiples with Buveur in with a few coming in meant it was a fantastic result
2019 Predictions
I expect Buveur D'Air (7/2) to put up his best display of the season at Aintree next week which could clip his price in slightly from 7/2. Can he follow Istabraaq and win the race for a third year in a row? I do think next years race will be a tougher test for him and don't have quite the same confidence in his chances as I did going into the season just gone. But 7/2 is still a more than reasonable price (for antepost these days) and if that price holds after the Aintree and Punchestown festivals, depending on the early indications are for possible runners, I may well follow a similar path and make him a decent size bet once again. Hopefully next season the English trials will have at least Summerville Boy in there. I'd really hope connections wouldn't sidestep either and I think if Buveur D'Air can get a season of decently contested races into him - he can improve on his 169 mark and break into the 170+
Of the rest of the runners in this years race...only Melon (8/1) would be of any interest at all. Rated 164 after Cheltenham (5lbs below Buveur D'Air) you'd expect a campaign where he was the yard's number 1, Ruby rides, Mullins trained that with 7 runs under his belt he could improve once again. I do feel likely though that it's more a case that Cheltenham and the pace of the races are what brings out the very best in the horse rather than the argument that he is still young and lightly raced. Even if you said at 6 years old and just 7 runs means he can still be progressive, i'd argue Buveur D'Air is only a year older with 11 runs under his belt so could well improve himself again. So I would want to see him follow up this run and win the Champion Hurdle at Punchestown for me to consider him though. Plus it'll be interesting what they do with the horse next season. Fences were talked about for him this year and that and the Arkle could come into play if they switch him to that discipline. Faugheen's 40/1 day at 2 miles are long gone. A step up could come next season or more likely retirement I feel but much will depend on hos he runs at Punchestown and if the spark is there. Yorkhill (25/1) you couldn't back for anything again right now and i'd be dead against him over hurdles anyway.
Of the newcomers...as usual i'll be against any of the juveniles (Farclass 25/1, Apples Shakira 50/1, Redicean 40/1, Mr Adjudicator 50/1) unless they prove themselves in the major trials. In truth any bet in this race probably revolves around where Samcro (8/1) goes next. The latest vibes suggest this race could come into play but i'd still be gobsmacked if he is not going chasing next year. IF he does target this race though, i'd have to have him onside. Less so for me but similar applies to Laurina (14/1) and that i'd like to see what the plans are with here before getting to involved here. She's looked an absolute superstar so far. If the pair were to meet at Punchestown that would tell us so much!! She has to be winning like she has been though so i'm still siding slightly on the side of caution before saying she can compete with Buveur D'Air for now. As there's a huge gulf in the races she has been running in to CH class. I do feel like she would have been right in the mix in the Supreme though and probably would have won so I do expect a major step up when she is (hopefully) tested, it's just whether that is enough. Fences could come into play for her as well though as connections have mentioned that discipline several times already and her size and scoop would lean that way.
The Supreme and Neptune runners...most seem to be going chasing (Kalashnikov 40/1, Mengli Khan 33/1, Paloma Blue 33/1, Black Op, Samcro, Next Destination, Vision des Flos 50/1) or going up in trip. Summerville Boy 16/1 is the major one to talk about. Won the Supreme despite a host of mistakes through the race. Without them he could have won much more convincingly. The ground came good for the horse this year but Tom George has said good ground should be no concern. The time of the Supreme was better than this years Champion Hurdle. The cliche of if he was trained by Mullins/Henderson what price will come out here but it does ring true when you think he's a festival winner and a dual grade 1 winning hurdler, with both of those 2 runs having Kalashnikov behind him, who himself won the Betfair Hurdle. So the form since that Tolworth has staked up and looked incredibly solid. With novice hurdlers we should be putting more focus on the latter races than early such is the level of improvement and progression that can occur but I still can't quite get defeats by both Slate House and Western Ryder earlier on in the season. It could be that the horse has stepped up a different level from them as the season has gone on or the heavy ground was the deciding factor. It's an unknown and you either take the bigger price now or wait and see him prove it again in open company / better ground next season. I'm inclined to wait for the latter. Getabird 33/1 is a big price considering he bounced right back to form at Fairyhouse If you can forgive him his run in the Supreme as a one off. Chasing could well be on the cards for him though (been mentioned several times by connections that he jumps like a chaser) but even he was to stay hurdling, i'd like to see him prove himself going left handed again, have slight concerns on whether the track suits and there has to be doubts on the potential to pick up further injuries or setbacks. All in all a horse i'm in no rush to back.
There is one more horse though that didn't run at Cheltenham that does interest me and that is If The Cap Fits 50/1. I would have been keen to take the price before Aintree but with no entry in the 2m novice hurdle it seems that either Aintree came just a little too soon or he has had another setback. Entries for the 2m4 novice on the Saturday are out tomorrow so he may well get the entry there but if he doesn't run i'll at least wait until Fry gives an update on the horse. I'll be backing at 50/1 before a run this Spring if he is out again though. (Fry has sent runners to Punchestown before) I can't find any quotes that state or suggest he'll be a chaser further down the line. I've mentioned above on the weakness of the current 2 mile hurdlers and open company and the fact most of the dominant novices will go chasing he may be a forgotten horse if he does stay hurdling next year. Fry know what it takes to win the race having all but trained Rock on Ruby to win in 2012. The form of his races may not suggest it but I did feel like ITCF was the best of the British going into the Supreme
Global Citizen 33/1 would also come into that category of missing Cheltenham so maybe being under the radar. He is entered in the 2m novice at Aintree on Friday and is an intended runner. 2/1 favourite for the race and if he wins well again the price will drop. I do have a slight reservation with horses who put up big performances at Kempton - I think the track can sometimes flatter horses/performances but there's no doubting how good he looked that day and importantly his jumping. His run prior has worked out quite well and his run at Aintree behind On The Blind Side I feel was better than the result (5th). Well regarded before the season being a big money purchase, he's certainly got more improvement to come from his mark of 149 (which he would need to do).
The good news is if these 2, along with Summerville Boy are targeting the race then we should get some competitive English trials and really see what Buveur D'Air can do. To summarise though a race i'm happy to wait a little while until the picture becomes a bit clearer on who may be lining up here. Buveur D'Air and If The Cap Fits are at the top of my list though as it stands.
There is obviously the very likely chance that if both Samcro and Laurina are sent over fences then Buveur D'Air (and others) will shorten in price but on Buveur D'Air particularly, he has been underestimated all last season on his price (4 and even 5/1 for a long time) and his price should be shorter even now so i'd expect 3/1 still to be around and if that was the case i'd be going in for sure without those 2 runners.
So Buveur D'air made it 2 in a row, as the odds and many of us expected. Though I have to say it was closer than I expected and certainly didn't see Melon push him that close!
The Winner
On the face of it you could say to only win by a neck, Buveur D'Air was slightly disappointing. He gave me a nervy watch up the run in but I think we saw a slightly below par horse on the day. Plenty was said on his preparation for the race or lack of one! And I think that certainly counted against him. My only slight worry coming into the race for him was this build up and whether he would be up for a fight if the race boiled down to one having had such an easy time of it throughout the season. Melon made sure that happened though and luckily (for me) he showed plenty of determination and guts to win. Although the ground wasn't seen to be a negative for him, I also felt his jumping wasn't quite as slick as it had been, whether the ground was a reason for that? Importantly though having watched the race back a few times today Barry seemed to have more faith in the horse and held back from using the whip until 1/2 furlong out (far later to when Melon was asked for maximum effort) and it was at that point that he started to get infront. It's also worth noting that of the horses that raced at the front for much of the race with Buveur D'Air, Charli Parcs fell way back through the field, Faugheen finished 20+ lengths back in 6th and Identity Thief 12 lengths back in 4th. Where as Melon and Mick Jazz were able to creep through the race and make their challenge closer to home. So I feel Buveur D'Air had more in hand than the winning distance would suggest.
Disappointments
The end result, and watching the race back, there aren't actually many that I can highlight here. Faugheen and Yorkhill could come into this as I would have expected at least a better run from both (it was clear Faugheen was in trouble from 3 out and Mick Jazz overturned a 4.75L deficit to beat Faugheen 18L) and Yorkhill was miles behind the whole field before being Pulled Up. That said I didn't fancy either to have a serious chance of winning so not a major disappointment at all. The remainder of the field was much of a muchness.
Eyecatchers
Identity Thief outran his odds to get 4th but just picked up the pieces. Mick Jazz continued his steady progression in the division with every race this year (Ratings of 144 147 150 155 156 and now rated 161). But you have to feel for all he keeps improving, he'll always be below the top level and is one horse certainly benefitting from the lack of competition in the division. The only, and obvious horses to note here is Melon. The money came for the horse before the off when he went off 7/1 (18/1 in the morning). He travelled through the race perfectly (wasn't helped 3 out either) and jumped the last upsides the winner and jumped it better but was reeled in to lose by a neck. I have to admit to getting this horse wrong. I hadn't really been impressed by any of his runs through the winter and having doubted the Supreme form of 2017 even if you took a favourable look on it being only his 2nd ever run - i was more than happy to pass him over. In hindsight though, the hood went against him at Leopardstown and pulling so hard and giving weight to MTOY's meant he had excuses in those runs. The pace and nature of the Champion Hurdle was suggested to suit and here's no doubt he improved for a career best here.
My Bets - 15pts Staked
8pts Buveur D'Air 4/1
5pts Faugheen 4/1 NRNB
2pts Yorkhill 6/1 ANY RACE
40pt Return, 25pt Profit
It was a case of the good, the bad and the ugly for me in this race! Buveur D'Air turned out a lovely bet going off at 4/6Fav. That ensured I came out the race with a +25pts profit. Faugheen like a few posters on here was backed in October before his reappearance which looked a smashing bet with the NRNB concession. Though he ended up going off at the same price at SP, he was bigger for much of the season and by the time the race went off I did not fancy him at all and certainly wouldn't have touched him in the race. This applies even more on Yorkhill. Although aware the CH was an option my hopes were on him being a Gold Cup horse, if not knocking back to the Ryanair. Even then I felt like the 6/1 would have been value if he did line up in the CH but he went off 14/1, in absolutely no form whatsoever and overlooked by not just Ruby Walsh but also Paul Townend. (it took about 24 hours for a jockey to even be assigned to him so it looks like no one wanted the ride on him :highly_amused
So once again a bet that when the race went off, I wish hadn't been placed. Despite those bets though the 25pt return was the second best race result for me (singles only) and a stack of multiples with Buveur in with a few coming in meant it was a fantastic result
2019 Predictions
I expect Buveur D'Air (7/2) to put up his best display of the season at Aintree next week which could clip his price in slightly from 7/2. Can he follow Istabraaq and win the race for a third year in a row? I do think next years race will be a tougher test for him and don't have quite the same confidence in his chances as I did going into the season just gone. But 7/2 is still a more than reasonable price (for antepost these days) and if that price holds after the Aintree and Punchestown festivals, depending on the early indications are for possible runners, I may well follow a similar path and make him a decent size bet once again. Hopefully next season the English trials will have at least Summerville Boy in there. I'd really hope connections wouldn't sidestep either and I think if Buveur D'Air can get a season of decently contested races into him - he can improve on his 169 mark and break into the 170+
Of the rest of the runners in this years race...only Melon (8/1) would be of any interest at all. Rated 164 after Cheltenham (5lbs below Buveur D'Air) you'd expect a campaign where he was the yard's number 1, Ruby rides, Mullins trained that with 7 runs under his belt he could improve once again. I do feel likely though that it's more a case that Cheltenham and the pace of the races are what brings out the very best in the horse rather than the argument that he is still young and lightly raced. Even if you said at 6 years old and just 7 runs means he can still be progressive, i'd argue Buveur D'Air is only a year older with 11 runs under his belt so could well improve himself again. So I would want to see him follow up this run and win the Champion Hurdle at Punchestown for me to consider him though. Plus it'll be interesting what they do with the horse next season. Fences were talked about for him this year and that and the Arkle could come into play if they switch him to that discipline. Faugheen's 40/1 day at 2 miles are long gone. A step up could come next season or more likely retirement I feel but much will depend on hos he runs at Punchestown and if the spark is there. Yorkhill (25/1) you couldn't back for anything again right now and i'd be dead against him over hurdles anyway.
Of the newcomers...as usual i'll be against any of the juveniles (Farclass 25/1, Apples Shakira 50/1, Redicean 40/1, Mr Adjudicator 50/1) unless they prove themselves in the major trials. In truth any bet in this race probably revolves around where Samcro (8/1) goes next. The latest vibes suggest this race could come into play but i'd still be gobsmacked if he is not going chasing next year. IF he does target this race though, i'd have to have him onside. Less so for me but similar applies to Laurina (14/1) and that i'd like to see what the plans are with here before getting to involved here. She's looked an absolute superstar so far. If the pair were to meet at Punchestown that would tell us so much!! She has to be winning like she has been though so i'm still siding slightly on the side of caution before saying she can compete with Buveur D'Air for now. As there's a huge gulf in the races she has been running in to CH class. I do feel like she would have been right in the mix in the Supreme though and probably would have won so I do expect a major step up when she is (hopefully) tested, it's just whether that is enough. Fences could come into play for her as well though as connections have mentioned that discipline several times already and her size and scoop would lean that way.
The Supreme and Neptune runners...most seem to be going chasing (Kalashnikov 40/1, Mengli Khan 33/1, Paloma Blue 33/1, Black Op, Samcro, Next Destination, Vision des Flos 50/1) or going up in trip. Summerville Boy 16/1 is the major one to talk about. Won the Supreme despite a host of mistakes through the race. Without them he could have won much more convincingly. The ground came good for the horse this year but Tom George has said good ground should be no concern. The time of the Supreme was better than this years Champion Hurdle. The cliche of if he was trained by Mullins/Henderson what price will come out here but it does ring true when you think he's a festival winner and a dual grade 1 winning hurdler, with both of those 2 runs having Kalashnikov behind him, who himself won the Betfair Hurdle. So the form since that Tolworth has staked up and looked incredibly solid. With novice hurdlers we should be putting more focus on the latter races than early such is the level of improvement and progression that can occur but I still can't quite get defeats by both Slate House and Western Ryder earlier on in the season. It could be that the horse has stepped up a different level from them as the season has gone on or the heavy ground was the deciding factor. It's an unknown and you either take the bigger price now or wait and see him prove it again in open company / better ground next season. I'm inclined to wait for the latter. Getabird 33/1 is a big price considering he bounced right back to form at Fairyhouse If you can forgive him his run in the Supreme as a one off. Chasing could well be on the cards for him though (been mentioned several times by connections that he jumps like a chaser) but even he was to stay hurdling, i'd like to see him prove himself going left handed again, have slight concerns on whether the track suits and there has to be doubts on the potential to pick up further injuries or setbacks. All in all a horse i'm in no rush to back.
There is one more horse though that didn't run at Cheltenham that does interest me and that is If The Cap Fits 50/1. I would have been keen to take the price before Aintree but with no entry in the 2m novice hurdle it seems that either Aintree came just a little too soon or he has had another setback. Entries for the 2m4 novice on the Saturday are out tomorrow so he may well get the entry there but if he doesn't run i'll at least wait until Fry gives an update on the horse. I'll be backing at 50/1 before a run this Spring if he is out again though. (Fry has sent runners to Punchestown before) I can't find any quotes that state or suggest he'll be a chaser further down the line. I've mentioned above on the weakness of the current 2 mile hurdlers and open company and the fact most of the dominant novices will go chasing he may be a forgotten horse if he does stay hurdling next year. Fry know what it takes to win the race having all but trained Rock on Ruby to win in 2012. The form of his races may not suggest it but I did feel like ITCF was the best of the British going into the Supreme
Global Citizen 33/1 would also come into that category of missing Cheltenham so maybe being under the radar. He is entered in the 2m novice at Aintree on Friday and is an intended runner. 2/1 favourite for the race and if he wins well again the price will drop. I do have a slight reservation with horses who put up big performances at Kempton - I think the track can sometimes flatter horses/performances but there's no doubting how good he looked that day and importantly his jumping. His run prior has worked out quite well and his run at Aintree behind On The Blind Side I feel was better than the result (5th). Well regarded before the season being a big money purchase, he's certainly got more improvement to come from his mark of 149 (which he would need to do).
The good news is if these 2, along with Summerville Boy are targeting the race then we should get some competitive English trials and really see what Buveur D'Air can do. To summarise though a race i'm happy to wait a little while until the picture becomes a bit clearer on who may be lining up here. Buveur D'Air and If The Cap Fits are at the top of my list though as it stands.
There is obviously the very likely chance that if both Samcro and Laurina are sent over fences then Buveur D'Air (and others) will shorten in price but on Buveur D'Air particularly, he has been underestimated all last season on his price (4 and even 5/1 for a long time) and his price should be shorter even now so i'd expect 3/1 still to be around and if that was the case i'd be going in for sure without those 2 runners.
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Poor write up jono. Can you put a bit more time and effort in please?
Loads to comment on which I'll give the time it deserves this weekend :encouragement:
*Buveur D'air missing Aintree will mean his price stays the same for most of the summer you'd imagine now?
Loads to comment on which I'll give the time it deserves this weekend :encouragement:
*Buveur D'air missing Aintree will mean his price stays the same for most of the summer you'd imagine now?